Optimal Investment in Clean Production Capacity

For the mitigation of long-term pollution threats, one must consider that both the process of environmental degradation and the switchover to new and cleaner technologies are dynamic. We develop a model of a uniform good that can be produced by either a polluting technology or a clean one; the latter is more expensive and requires investment in capacity. We derive the socially optimal pollution stock accumulation and creation of nonpolluting production capacity, weighing the tradeoffs among consumption, investment and djustment costs, and environmental damages. We consider the effects of changes in the pollution decay rate, the capacity depreciation rate, and the initial state of the environment on both the steady state and the transition period. The optimal transition path looks quite different with a clean or dirty initial environment. With the former, investment is slow and the price of pollution may overshoot the long-run optimum before converging. With the latter, capacity may overshoot.     

投资清洁能源技术 促进经济绿色增长

当前,全球同时面临两个重大挑战：尽快走出经济危机和应对能源供应和气候变化安全,实现向低碳的过渡。全球向低碳的过渡将催生能源技术革命。为促进经济恢复,世界主要经济体都实施了经济刺激计划。清洁能源技术是刺激计划投资的重点之一。本文在已有公开文献的基础上,总结了能源技术革命的主要内容、清洁能源技术对促进经济绿色增长的作用和主要经济体刺激计划对清洁能源投资的重点。分析了金融和经济危机对清洁能源技术发展的影响,提出实施综合技术政策,以能源技术革命促经济绿色增长。试图回答如何将迎接能源技术革命和促进经济恢复结合起来的问题。     

The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis

We study a dynamic carbon pollution model where carbon accumulates both inside a nonrenewable and a renewable reservoir with a constant regeneration rate. Two primary energy sources are available: a cheap exhaustible fossil fuel (coal) and an expensive clean energy alternative (solar). To avoid catastrophic climate events, the global carbon concentration has to remain below some critical mandated ceiling. We show that there exists an upper bound on the coal endowment that can be consumed, which distinguishes two main cases: coal is initially abundant or scarce. If the energy sector has to provide a constant aggregate energy flow to the final users, cost-effectiveness requires that the global ceiling should be attained only when solar energy is introduced. Then the economy stays forever at the ceiling and coal use is progressively replaced by solar energy use. In the abundant coal case, this energy sources substitution process lasts for an infinite duration while in the scarce coal case, coal exploitation ends in finite time. Under a welfare maximization criterion, if coal is abundant, we show that the economy may follow a sequence of phases at the ceiling and below the ceiling before the final transition towards clean energy.     

The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis

We study a dynamic carbon pollution model where carbon accumulates both inside a nonrenewable and a renewable reservoir with a constant regeneration rate. Two primary energy sources are available: a cheap exhaustible fossil fuel (coal) and an expensive clean energy alternative (solar). To avoid catastrophic climate events, the global carbon concentration has to remain below some critical mandated ceiling. We show that there exists an upper bound on the coal endowment that can be consumed, which distinguishes two main cases: coal is initially abundant or scarce. If the energy sector has to provide a constant aggregate energy flow to the final users, cost-effectiveness requires that the global ceiling should be attained only when solar energy is introduced. Then the economy stays forever at the ceiling and coal use is progressively replaced by solar energy use. In the abundant coal case, this energy sources substitution process lasts for an infinite duration while in the scarce coal case, coal exploitation ends in finite time. Under a welfare maximization criterion, if coal is abundant, we show that the economy may follow a sequence of phases at the ceiling and below the ceiling before the final transition towards clean energy.     

关中地区清洁能源供暖方案的经济环境效益研究

使用清洁能源进行供暖,对关中地区治污减霾、改善能源结构具有积极的意义,但关于关中地区清洁能源供暖经济效益的研究鲜有报道。根据关中地区的供暖需求,论文制定了煤改电、煤改气和浅层地热能三种清洁能源供暖方案,构建了办公建筑、商业建筑和居住建筑三类典型模型,计算了这三类模型使用煤改电、煤改气和浅层地热能方案的投资、成本、净现值、内部收益率及投资回收期。浅层地热能方案净现值最大,盈利总量最大,其次为煤改电方案,最后为煤改气方案。煤改电方案内部收益率最高,煤改气方案最低,但对比差额投资内部收益率,浅层地热能供暖方案优于煤改电方案,煤改电方案优于煤改气方案。根据模型参数,评价了不同方案的污染物排放量和节能性,浅层地热能方案节能性最优,煤改电次之,煤改气较差。论文旨在为推动陕西省清洁能源事业的科学、有序发展提供理论依据。     

2014财年美国能源与气候变化研发预算解读

2013年4月,奥巴马政府向美国国会正式提交了2014财年整体预算建议,白宫科技政策办公室(OSTP)、能源部(DOE)等联邦各部门随后也分别发布了2014财年联邦研发以及各自领域的预算明细。对研发预算的构成和分配的分析显示,美国在能源与气候变化领域研发预算增幅相对突出,体现了奥巴马在其第二任期内继续发展清洁能源产业、推动能源独立和应对气候变化的决心和努力。美国近期能源与气候变化的研发重点包括:可再生能源、新能源汽车、清洁煤技术、先进制造、建筑节能及气候变化等等。美国近年在能源和气候变化研发上的主要特点有:设定技术发展和应用的中长期目标,引导和调动各方面资源加速推动技术创新;不断创新管理模式和资助渠道;营造有利的市场环境,为可再生能源等新技术提供生存空间等。     

城市循环经济建设中的污水热能资源开发与水资源再生一体化研究

发展循环经济,建设资源节约型和环境友好型城市是构建和谐社会、建设全面小康的必然选择,是转变我国经济增长方式的重要保证。采用适宜的技术和工艺,推广使用符合标准的再生水,使污水资源化,将城市污水处理的战略目标由传统意义上的污水处理、达标排放转变为以提高水资源综合利用率为核心的水循环再用,是城市水资源再生利用的重要思路。本文重点介绍了从城市污水中提取冷热量向建筑物供热、供冷,在确保没有污染的情况下变废为宝,再开发利用城市污水中蕴涵的可利用能源,为城市污水的资源化开辟新途径的创新思路。     

Free-Riding and Cooperation in Environmental Games

This paper examines the negotiation of an international environmental agreement in which different countries determine the (nonenforceable) promises of investment in clean technologies to be included in the agreement. Furthermore, it analyzes countries' optimal investment in emission-reducing technologies, considering that, in addition to the utility that a country perceives from an improved environmental quality, it is also concerned about the relative fulfillment of the terms specified in the international agreement either by itself or by others. I show, first, why countries may prefer to shift most promises of investment in clean technologies to other countries, despite the fact that these promises are usually nonenforceable by any international organization. Second, I determine countries' optimal investments in these technologies, and analyze how their particular investments depend on how demanding the international agreement is, and on the importance that countries assign to each others' relative fulfillment of their part of the treaty.     

Mineral resources for renewable energy: Optimal timing of energy production

The production of energy from renewable sources is much more intensive in minerals than that from fossil resources. The scarcity of certain minerals limits the potential for substituting renewable energy for scarce fossil resources. However, minerals can be recycled, while fossil resources cannot. We develop an intertemporal model to study the dynamics of the optimal energy mix in the presence of mineral intensive renewable energy and fossil energy. We analyze energy production when both mineral and fossil resources are scarce, but minerals are recyclable. We show that the greater the recycling rate of minerals, the more the energy mix should rely on renewable energy, and the sooner should investment in renewable capacity take place. We confirm these results even in the presence of other better known factors that affect the optimal schedule of resource use: expected productivity growth in the renewable sector, imperfect substitution between the two sources of energy, convex extraction costs for mineral resources and pollution from the use of fossil resources.     

Global Expansion of Renewable Energy Generation: An Analysis of Policy Instruments

This study analyzes the degree to which renewable energy policies, in particular feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards, facilitate renewable energy generation growth across a wide range of countries using an original cross-national dataset of 164 countries between 1990 and 2010. Results provide evidence that both policies are important predictors of renewable energy market growth. The dependent variable is operationalized first as the percentage of total electricity from renewable energy and second as the annual increase in total renewable energy generation in a country. Results are robust to several alternative model specifications including those that exclude hydroelectric generation in the construct of renewable energy. The degree to which feed-in tariffs are endogenous, however, is not conclusive. Besides the prominent role of these policies, results reveal that factors related to annual increases in renewable energy differ from those related to an overall transition toward greater reliance on renewable energy. This suggests that simply increasing renewable generation does not necessarily decrease reliance on fossil fuels or help countries make the shift to a clean energy economy.     

Optimal Timing of CCS Policies with Heterogeneous Energy Consumption Sectors

Using the Chakravorty et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 30:2875–2904, 2006) ceiling model, we characterize the optimal consumption paths of three energy resources: dirty oil, which is non-renewable and carbon emitting; clean oil, which is also non-renewable but carbon-free thanks to an abatement technology, and solar energy, which is renewable and carbon-free. The resulting energy-mix can supply the energy needs of two sectors. These sectors differ in the additional abatement cost they have to pay for consuming clean rather than dirty oil, as Sector 1 (industry) can abate its emissions at a lower cost than Sector 2 (transport). We show that it is optimal to begin by fully capturing Sector 1’s emissions before the ceiling is reached. Also, there may be optimal paths along which the capture devices of both sectors must be activated. In this case, Sector’s 1 emissions are fully abated first, before Sector 2 abates partially. Finally, we discuss the way heterogeneity of abatement costs causes sectoral energy price paths to differ.     

Status of CO2 emissions, driving forces and mitigation countermeasures of Tianjin, China

ncing energy efficiency, exploiting and using clean and renewable energy, advancing energy structure adjustments, and actively developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.     

Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy

Increasing electric power production from renewable energy sources is currently one of the major objectives of energy policy. The intermittent nature of renewables, such as wind and solar, necessarily imposes complex trade-offs for regulatory objectives, such as resource adequacy (and system reliability) versus reductions in green house gas emissions. We develop a highly stylized model of investments in order to derive insights regarding the workings of regulatory incentives for increased renewable energy. We first show that incentives are indeed needed when there are significant economies of scale in the form of “learning by doing” or alternatively, when there is excess capacity in conventional technology due to legacy investments. We analyze two different regulatory schemes (feed-in tariffs and renewable portafolio standards) aimed at increasing investment in renewable capacity. We show that neither scheme is capable of inducing the socially optimal level of investment in renewable capacity. A single feed-in tariff fails to induce optimal investment as a feed-in tariff exceeding marginal costs of conventional technology incentivizes over-development of the most attractive sites which preempts investment in less attractive, yet socially valuable sites. A renewable portfolio standard that promotes increased investment in renewable technology induces under-investment in the conventional technology. These results suggest that a “clinical” regulatory design, that is, one that promotes the right amount of renewable capacity without affecting conventional capacity is a challenging proposition.     

The Socially Optimal Level of Saving in Australia, 1960-61 to 1994-95

In this paper a model is developed which determines the socially optimal level of saving for a small open economy. The model also determines the socially optimal disposition of saving between domestic capital accumulation and overseas asset accumulation. The model is then applied to the Australian economy for the period 1960-61 to 1994-95. For each year of that period socially optimal levels of saving, investment and the current account of the balance of payments are determined. Two main conclusions emerge. Firstly, while Australia under-saved by an average of 1.7 per cent of GDP from 1974-75 to 1994-95, it over-saved by an average of 5.3 per cent of GDP in the earlier period from 1960-61 to 1973-74. Secondly, Australia did not make optimal use of world capital markets to smooth consumption in the period from 1960-61 to 1994-95; although there is less evidence for this since 1984-85, suggesting that deregulation of capital markets may have facilitated the optimal smoothing of consumption.     

论资源环境优化产业升级——以战后日本产业结构调整为例

本文以日本战后重化工产业结构调整为例,分析日本通过节能环保成功促进产业升级的要素与经验。二战后日本的产业结构和资源环境保护,以1973年为分界点,呈现出"重工业、轻环保"、"重环保、促发展"前后两个阶段的不同特点。在70年代,面对产业结构偏重,环境污染问题凸显的背景下,日本以节能环保为目标,通过实施环境一体化产业政策、调整投资结构、提高公害治理投资比重;调整能源结构、提高清洁能源比重;调整出口贸易结构,出口产品向知识密集型产品过渡;强化环境立法、促进企业减排;鼓励节能环保科技研发等综合手段,促使产业结构向知识密集型、环境依存度较低的产业结构调整,并促进传统产业升级。日本经验对现阶段我国制定产业结构调整政策、转变经济增长方式具有极其重要的借鉴意义。     

Energy substitutions,climate change and carbon sinks

We determine the optimal exploitation time-paths of two energy resources, one being depletable and polluting, namely a fossil fuel, the other being renewable and clean. These optimal paths are considered along with the two following features. First, the cumulative atmospheric pollution stock is set not to exceed some critical threshold and second, the polluting emissions produced by the use of fossil fuel can be reduced at the source and stockpiled in several carbon sinks of limited capacity. We show that, if the renewable resource flow is abundant, the optimal path requires that sequestration is implemented only once the ceiling is reached. Moreover, the reservoirs should be completely filled by increasing order of their respective sequestration costs.     

Energy substitutions, climate change and carbon sinks

We determine the optimal exploitation time-paths of two energy resources, one being depletable and polluting, namely a fossil fuel, the other being renewable and clean. These optimal paths are considered along with the two following features. First, the cumulative atmospheric pollution stock is set not to exceed some critical threshold and second, the polluting emissions produced by the use of fossil fuel can be reduced at the source and stockpiled in several carbon sinks of limited capacity. We show that, if the renewable resource flow is abundant, the optimal path requires that sequestration is implemented only once the ceiling is reached. Moreover, the reservoirs should be completely filled by increasing order of their respective sequestration costs.     

低碳经济技术锁定突破研究

为全面提升我国的经济发展质量与生态环境质量,低碳经济势在必行。低碳经济的实现依赖于技术创新,只有以过硬的技术作保障,才能从源头制止更多污染物的产生,实现低碳发展。但是我国低碳经济存在着“技术锁定”现象,技术锁定使我国现代产业体系难以形成,消耗了大量的能源,造成了环境的严重污染。文章从我国低碳经济技术锁定的现象出发,分析了技术锁定的原因是由于产业结构不合理、技术研发能力薄弱、投资风险巨大、国际技术转移困难、低碳消费观念滞后等综合因素影响。文章提出了低碳技术锁定突破点是突破性创新和渐进性创新,并分析了与之对应的跨越型技术路径和顺轨型技术路径。文章还针对不同的路径,提出了发展我国低碳经济,实现技术跨越的对策。     

An evolutionary model of energy transitions with interactive innovation-selection dynamics

We develop a stylized application of a new evolutionary model to study an energy transition in electricity production. The framework describes a population of boundedly rational electricity producers who decide each period on the allocation of profits among different energy technologies. They tend to invest in below-average cost energy technologies, while also devoting a small fraction of profits to alternative technological options and research on recombinant innovation. Energy technologies are characterized by costs falling with cumulative investments. Without the latter, new technologies have no chance to become cost competitive. We study the conditions under which a new energy technology emerges and technologies coexist. In addition, we determine which investment heuristics are optimal in the sense of minimizing the total cost of electricity production. This is motivated by the idea that, while diversity contributes to system adaptability (innovation) and resilience to unforeseen contingencies (keeping options open), a high cost will discourage investments in it.     

Harnessing rivers of wind: A technology and policy assessment of high altitude wind power in the U.S.

This paper provides an assessment of the commercialization potential for high altitude wind power (HWP). Several technological and policy barriers are identified that may affect the development and deployment of the technology in the US. Technical barriers include electrical transmission from high altitudes and the development of viable methods of energy storage to address intermittency. Non-technical barriers include the lack of a carbon price in the US, which provides an advantage to embedded technologies and widens the ‘valley of death.’ A variety of stakeholders are analyzed in order to understand potential impacts upon the development of HWP. Many fossil fuel producers and utility companies have been leveraging political authority to lobby against a carbon tax, which could be crucial for broad deployment of renewable energy technologies. The combination of technical and non-technical barriers indicates that commercialization of HWP is unlikely in the short term. Commercialization would require major policy shifts at the federal level and advances in S&T. Recommendations are provided to increase federal investment in applied research through additional funding for the Advanced Research Projects Agency—Energy (ARPA-E). It is also recommended that ARPA-E create a matching fund to assist in the commercialization of renewable energy technologies.