What are the Policy Lessons from Sweden? On the Rise,Fall and Revival of a Capitalist Welfare State

This paper discusses a number of questions with regard to Sweden's economic and political development:

? How did Sweden become rich?

? What explains Sweden's high level of income equality?

? What were the causes of Sweden's problems from 1970 to 1995?

? How is it possible that Sweden, since the crisis of the early 1990s, is growing faster than most EU countries despite its high taxes and generous welfare state?

These questions are analysed using recent insights from institutional economics, as well as studies of inequality and economic growth. The main conclusion is that there is little, if any, Swedish exceptionalism: Sweden became rich because of well-functioning capitalist institutions, and inequality was low before the expansion of the welfare state. The recent favourable growth record of Sweden, including the period of financial stress (2008–10), is a likely outcome of a number of far-reaching structural reforms implemented in the 1980s and 1990s.     

What Have We Learned from the Global Financial Crisis?

According to the policy ideas that have dominated the policy debate since the 1970s, the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent slump in the United States and Europe should never have happened. The crisis provided sufficient evidence to reject the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, along with the dominant models in academic macroeconomics and policy claims such as the ‘trickle‐down’ hypothesis and the case for comprehensive privatisation. In reality, few of these lessons have been learned and much of the policy response to the crisis has been irrelevant or counter‐productive. As a result, we have learned some unflattering lessons about the economics profession, including policy‐makers, commentators, central bankers and academic economists.     

Comment on “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro-Area Crisis”

This comment discusses and extends the paper: “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro Area Crisis,” by Charles Goodhart. The comment claims the Eurosystem was more sluggish in responding to the crisis than the Federal Reserve due to restrictions originating from its mandate. Yet today’s challenge runs deeper, as the absence of a banking union in the Euro Area has allowed a large fragmentation in financial intermediation. The critical question is: “Given that the Euro Area is not an Optimum Currency Area and a banking union will take a long time to materialize, can the Eurosystem find a way to alleviate the fragmentation in lending rates without compromising its independence?” The comment offers a solution, which would expand the monetary toolbox.     

What drives trade in services? Lessons from the Nordics

This article makes an empirical assessment of the relative importance of non-actionable institutional and cultural factors and actionable policy measures for services market integration, using the Nordic countries as a case study. The Nordics are an ideal case as they are perceived to be a cluster of similar countries, but they have chosen different relations to the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world. First, comparing actionable and non-actionable determinants of services trade, I find that policy-determined free trade agreements (FTAs) boost services trade by 75% and a single market by an additional 45%, while the accumulated effect of all standard non-actionable shared geographical, institutional and cultural features (sharing a land border, language, colonial past and legal origin) almost triples services trade. Having controlled for all these determinants, intra-Nordic trade in services is more than three times the predicted value. An unexplained Nordic bias of this magnitude indicates that full integration of services markets may rely on deeper institutional and cultural factors.     

Operationalising active involvement in the EU Water Framework Directive: Why, when and how?

We identify two key stages in the river basin planning process under the Water Framework Directive: the selection of instruments for a programme of measures to achieve the environmental targets, and disproportionate cost analysis to determine whether selected measures involve high costs. Some EU member states such as Denmark are operationalising these two key stages using cost effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis. However, implementation guidelines encourage the active involvement of all interested parties in the implementation of the Directive. We discuss the potential benefits of actively involving non-state actors, which can be summarised as increasing the effectiveness of policy and improving its implementation. Criticising the emerging economic decision-making approach, we argue that economic analyses could result in a missed opportunity to capitalise on the potential benefits of involvement. The article discusses the appropriateness of actively involving the public during the two aforementioned decision-making stages and suggests concrete ways in which active involvement may be operationalised. We conclude that member states should not implement a minimum form of participation to comply with the statutory requirements of the Directive, but should strive for active involvement due to the potential for increasing the effectiveness of the Water Framework Directive and improving its implementation.     

What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?

This paper reports data from the author's original survey of Japanese companies concerning the distributions on subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system and international trade policy. Policy uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy and environmental policy can have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. According to the companies’ subjective probability distributions on their sales outlook, manufacturers face greater uncertainty than non‐manufacturing companies do. Uncertainty over economic policies substantially reduces the expected sales growth rate.     

International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature

The theoretical case for international coordination was well established, and presumed settled, in the 1970s. In the mid-1980s, the focus of research shifted to intertemporal aspects of economic interdependence. In the early 1990s, the subject no longer generated as much interest among economists as it might have deserved from an economic policy perspective. With EMU, the topic of coordination has once again found its way onto the political and scientific agenda. In fact, the EMU regime not only raises a number of new and important questions concerning policy coordination, it might also be interpreted as a surrogate for far-reaching forms of policy coordination. At the same time, more ambitious forms of coordination are confronted in any case with coordination constraints imposed by the EMU – regime itself, such as the independence provision of the ESCB and the supreme monetary policy goal of maintaining price stability. Without doubt, economists' and political scientists studies on coordination will not be suited to serve as blueprints of policy coordination for policymakers to follow at summit meetings. But even if the key question - how much relevance the abundant literature on coordination may hold for the real world – could not be answered definitely, it – at least – provides useful analytical insights in the structure of coordination problems. And an improved analytical understanding of macroeconomic interaction is a necessary prerequisite for more successful efforts at policy coordination.     

Design of Stated Preference Surveys: Is There More to Learn from Behavioral Economics?

We discuss the design of stated preference (SP) surveys in light of findings in behavioral economics such as context dependence of preferences, learning, and differences between revealed and normative preferences. More specifically, we discuss four different areas: (1) revealed and normative preferences, (2) learning and constructed preferences, (3) context dependence, and (4) hypothetical bias. We argue that SP methods would benefit from adapting to some of the findings in behavioral economics, but also that behavioral economics may gain insights from studying SP methods.     

Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.     

Lessons from Constitutional Culture and the History of Constitutional Transfer: A Hope for Constitutionally Limited Government?

The literature shows a clear correlation between sound constitutional environments and human flourishing. However, the path to adoption of sound constitutions is much less clear. This paper turns to the history of constitutional transfer to propose an alternative to taxonomies offered in the literature, which typically classify constitutions either by governmental structure (presidential v. parliamentary, or centralized v. federalist) or by source of influence (e.g. US 1787, Spain 1812, France 1958). These classifications are found wanting; instead, this paper proposes a new taxonomy based on the origin of the constitutional ideas and adoption. Formal constitutional parchment must match informal constitutional culture, so a constitution’s likelihood of success is greatest when the ideas are indigenous; the source of adoption is ultimately secondary. The paper closes with four case studies of constitutional transfer and adoption.     

Sandwich-Course Training in Higher Education as a Major Strategic Thrust Regional Policy of Professional Training： Lessons Learned From the Pioneering Example of the University Institute of Technology Corsica

Corsica is an island economy marked by the complete absence of any of the big holdings and multinationals that fuel and forge the worldwide economy. Equally absent is any of the kind of medium-sized enterprises servicing big business that have spearheaded local economies in other regions like Lombardy. Corsica＇s economic fabric is essentially made up of small and home businesses, farm smallholdings, artisans, and small-scale retail. Given how public-sector capital investment is already hypertrophied, a policy of investment in human capital could be a compelling new opportunity to trigger a dynamic regional development impetus. Leading the way, the University Institute of Technology Corsica, Corsica University＇s affiliated school of applied vocational technologies, is demonstrating its ability to act as a structurally engaged facilitator of island-wide spatial planning and regional branding. As a founding pillar in pioneering the emergence of a sandwich-course training system in higher education in Corsica, in 2010 the university made its entire training curriculum fully accessible to all through the signature of apprenticeship training or vocational qualifications agreements. This grass-roots programme is the outcome of a committed core strategy to develop partnerships with the island＇s key social and economic communities （businesses, community groups, and local authorities）, and it plays a fundamental role in shaping and selling the most vital valued assets that typify a regional territory emerging into a structured destination-brand identity （simultaneous growth in the employability and quality of school-to-work transition shown by its human capital, mass shift in the degree of skill acquisition directly tied to the regional territory＇s own organic needs, fluidity of knowledge transfer fully controlled through sandwich placements, deep sustainable entrepreneurship education etc.）. After highlighting the specific features of the sandwich training policy development process in Corsica as a shaper of the Regional Vocational Development Programme, this paper brings an analysis of the lessons learned from the pioneering example of the University Institute of Technology Corsica as a dynamic engineer of structured future and regional brand for Corsica.     

What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?

This paper proposes an empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of trade specialization, using a symmetric transformation of the standard Balassa (Manch Sch Econ Soc Stud 33(2):99–123, 1965) index and the conditional density estimation methods suggested by Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996). The framework is implemented using data on the cross-sector export and import specialization of the four initial EU Cohesion countries over the last 40 years. We discuss the importance of studying both the distribution’s external shape and the intra-distribution dynamics and why it is interesting to include imports in the analysis. We find a reduction of the overall degree of export specialization in Portugal, Greece and Spain. Conversely, Ireland has the strongest export specialization and there is evidence of an increase over time. The export intra-distribution dynamics reveal persistence of the specialization status in the four countries, especially for high values of the index. In all countries, the degree of specialization is higher for exports than for imports and intra-distribution dynamics reveal more mobility of import specialization than that of exports.     

What drives the reversal of the gender education gap? Evidence from Germany

We study the mechanisms that are associated with the gender education gap and its reversal in Germany. We focus on three outcomes, graduation from upper secondary school, any tertiary education and tertiary degree. Neither individual and family background nor labour market characteristics appear to be strongly associated with the gender education gap. There is some evidence that the gender gap in upper secondary education reflects the rising share of single parent households which impacts boys’ attainment more than girls’. The gender education gap in tertiary education is correlated with the development of class sizes and social norms.     

Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

In March 2014 Crimea unilaterally declared its independence from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. The separation of a part of a state's territory and economy is an interesting matter to examine. The economy of Ukraine has not only shrunk, but also changed its structure as Crimea had a quite distinct production pattern compared to the rest of Ukraine. Moreover, policy measures initialized before the separation may have different effects once applied only to a part of the former economy. This paper proposes a strategy to model the separation of part of an economy and its inclusion into another country and applies this strategy to the case of Crimea, Ukraine, and Russia. Having constructed a model for the new geographical and economic situation, we reinvestigate the possible effects of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and compare the results for the situation with Crimea as part of Ukraine. We find that the annexation of Crimea leads to severe economic losses for Ukraine which are partly overproportional compared to Crimea's economic size. These negative effects can be compensated by implementing the DCFTA with the EU as we also show in our model results.     

What constitutes a convention? Implications for the coexistence of conventions

A model of repeated play of a coordination game, in which stage games have a location in social space and players receive noisy signals of the true location of their games, is reviewed. Sugden (1995) (The coexistence of conventions. J Econ Behav Organ 28:241–256) suggests that, in such a model, there can be a stationary state of convention coexistence only if interaction is non-uniform across social space. This paper shows that an alternative definition of conventions, which links conventions to actions rather than expectations, permits convention coexistence when interaction is uniform. To assess robustness, the concept of a global mutant is introduced, to which certain states of coexistence are robust.

What is the Comparative Advantage of the Service Learning Pedagogy? Insights from Development Economics

We rely on the Kolb learning cycle and the experiences from two development economics class to analyze the comparative advantage of service learning pedagogy. We hypothesize that service learning is uniquely positioned to improve learning outcomes in applied/policy-oriented specializations. We conceptualize learning outcomes from a discipline-specific perspective where service hours are directly linked to the course content. We argue that the sustainability of service learning in applied/policy-oriented disciplines is limited by journal-entry orthodoxy and short-term costs. Emotive journal entries often encourage an “everything goes” response which threatens the credibility of service learning and limits its use in specializations that value objectivity. Service hours imply costs to faculty and students that exceed those of traditional approaches. This can serve as a disincentive for course adaptation, despite the decline in these costs over time, and enrollment. Our analysis encourages instructors to explore alternatives to the widely used journal-entry and to seek opportunities to inform students of the expected long-run benefit/cost tradeoffs. We encourage administrators to support faculty who teach classes that are predisposed to service learning in ways that can reduce short-run costs. With its comparative advantage and the united efforts across the academy, we expect that in the long-run service experiences will routinely be used to complement traditional lectures in applied/policy-oriented classrooms across the academy.     

What Accounts for the Rising Share of Women in the Top 1 percent?

The share of women in the top 1 percent of the UK’s income distribution has been growing over the last two decades (as in several other countries). Our first contribution is to account for this trend using regressions of the probability of being in the top 1 percent, fitted separately for men and women, in order to contrast between the sexes the role of changes in characteristics and changes in returns to characteristics. We show that the rise of women in the top 1 percent is primarily accounted for by their greater increases in the number of years spent in full-time education. Although most top income analysis uses tax return data, we derive our findings taking advantage of the much more extensive information about personal characteristics that is available in survey data. Our use of survey data requires justification given survey under-coverage of top incomes. Providing this justification is our second contribution.     

What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries

We investigate how the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and employment vary with the state of the business cycle, monetary policy, public debt, the current account, and private credit. By examining the response of a large number of variables, we are also able to shed light on the transmission channels of fiscal policy. Our main finding is that short-term output multipliers are below unity, even in states in which multipliers are expected to be larger (eg when the output gap is negative or monetary policy tight). Key offsetting factors that reduce the size of multipliers and explain differences across states are the extent to which the external sector improves and monetary policy eases.