SELECTED PROBLEMS OF INTER-COUNTRY COMPARISONS ON THE BASIS OF THE EXPERIENCE OF THE EEC

The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following. (a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases. (b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.     

欧元:从现在看未来

欧元自诞生以来取得了初步成功,包括促进了欧元区经济一体化的发展,取得了仅次于美元的第二大国际货币的地位。但是,欧元还面临着许多挑战,尤其是欧盟的政治一体化的滞后。今后一段时期欧元还会健康成长。     

THE BEHAVIOUR OF SOLUTIONS TO BARGAINING PROBLEMS ON THE BASIS OF SOLIDARITY*

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic study of the solidarity‐type axioms for classical convex bargaining problems. As a consequence, we present alternative characterizations for some well‐known solutions in the literature. Instead of using the Monotonicity axiom, the paper provides characterizations of the egalitarian solution and the Kalai–Somorodinsky solution using slightly weaker versions of Nash's original IIA for convex bargaining problems with a fixed population.     

ESTIMATES OF THE HIDDEN ECONOMY IN AUSTRIA ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS

By definition, the hidden economy eludes straight observation by means of official statistics. Nevertheless, attempts to quantify these phenomena usually make reference to official materials in various respects, e.g. as regards definition, or when evaluating the relative importance or some indirect reflections of such activities. In this context, official statistics may serve as a particularly useful reference when those sections of the economy are concerned which are hardly or not at all susceptible to hidden activities. Such sections can be identified in terms of industry and in terms of occupation.
In the present investigation such techniques have been used to a large extent and only official statistics have been drawn upon as a data source. Accordingly, the outcome matches closely with national accounts concepts and existing national classifications of various socio-economic statistics. The estimates refer to the hidden ("off the records") activities of the self-employed as well as to similar activities of employees, the unemployed etc. ("moonlighting"). Per se criminal activities have not been included, however. As regards the self-employed the estimates basically rely on income differentials observed between small scale entrepreneurs and their employees. As regards employees numbers employed of various preselected occupational categories and of some additional groups of non-employed have been processed successively, matching them e.g. with comparable data on time budgets and regional frequency.
The outcome largely confirms common experience or expectations as regards the fields where hidden activities assume significant relative importance whereas the overall size of the hidden economy turned out fairly small as compared with official GDP.     

COMMENTS ON: "SELECTED PROBLEMS OF INTERCOUNTRY COMPARISONS ON THE BASIS OF THE EXPERIENCE OF THE EEC"

The paper by Gerardi covers considerable ground, touching on a wide variety of issues in the area of international comparisons of product and purchasing power. Since our views on most of these subjects have been expounded in one or another of the International Comparison Project volumes and we will concentrate mainly on the central issue raised by Gerardi of the selection of an aggregation process that must somehow take account of the tastes of all the people who are the subject of an international comparison inquiry. In addition, we comment on some other points including the notion of special purpose PPPs. Finally, we make a brief statement about where we think future research will be most useful in improving international comparisons.     

企业家心智模式对企业多元化战略决策的影响

心智模式决定着企业家多元化经营战略的价值观、假设式信念和结构化知识框架,从而对多元化经营战略具有决定性影响。理论模型表明,企业家心智模式的主要影响因素包括人口统计因素、个性特征因素和环境因素,在此基础上形成的异质性心智模式对企业家多元化战略决策的心理过程(包括信息接受和主动搜寻、企业家对现状的解释以及企业家对多元化经营的态度)产生相应的影响,进而决定企业家是否选择多元化经营以及选择何种多元化类型。     

金融安全网:基于信息空间理论的分析

在美国新金融改革法案颁布以及世界各国正着手进行金融监管体系重塑的背景下,针对金融安全网信息机制的构建,本文运用信息空间理论分析框架,结合复杂性学科的相关内容,分析了信息空间理论与金融安全网之间的适用性,探讨了构建金融安全网宏观信息空间、中观信息空间和微观信息空间与金融安全网适应能力、吸收能力、决策能力以及防护能力之间的关系,阐述了金融安全网信息机制的有效性及其对预防和管理银行危机的直接影响。     

村域“居住场势”非均衡态势下的山区农户移民搬迁研究——基于河南省巩义市温堂村69户搬迁农户的实证分析

结合山区脱贫和新农村建设实际,推进山地贫困区农户移民搬迁,鼓励其迁移到条件较好、有发展空间的区位成为当前居民点调整的一种主要趋势。基于对河南省巩义市温堂村69户搬迁农户的调查,对农户居住迁移的空间特征、搬迁前后居住空间效用变化等进行分析研究表明:不同村庄"居住场势"的非均衡性是推动农户实施移民搬迁的基本背景。随着农户由低"居住场势"村庄向高"居住场势"村庄移动,农户在迁入村庄获取了更多的居住空间效用。一方面,农户的出行及购物便利性明显提高,其与外界空间联系程度逐步扩大,总体经济收入水平明显提高。另一方面,农户居住质量明显提高,居住生态环境也明显改善。     

城市可持续发展能力成长过程理论解析与模型

基于系统(静态)与过程(动态)的双重视角,以人地关系理论和能力与主体关系逻辑为支撑,基于事物成长过程推进质量与水平的高低从根本上决定了事物及其能力成长的客观、科学认知,对于城市可持续发展能力成长动因与过程进行了系统、全面、科学的理论解析,并结合发达国家与发展中国家实际构建了“自然过渡”和“双峰逼近”型城市可持续发展能力成长过程理论模型,为城市可持续发展能力研究提供了全新的理论支撑。     

城市自组织理论与模型研究新进展

我国城市化快速推进,各种城市问题接踵而至,对城市演化机制的把握尤为重要.西方学者对城市自组织性的研究不断深入,新近进展中以亨德森的城市规模自组织模型、克鲁格曼的城市白组织模型、杨小凯的自组织城市化模型、波图戈里的自组织城市、艾伦的城市自组织演化模型及新经济地理城市体系演化模型最具代表性.对城市自组织理论及模型研究的新进展进行梳理和评述,有利于加深对城市自组织特征、机制的认识,合理地开展城市规划、管理,促进城市可持续发展.     

ON THE INTERPRETATION OF COVARIATE ESTIMATES IN INDEPENDENT COMPETING-RISKS MODELS*

Competing-risks models are becoming increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from the state (is. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation). However, as in many limited dependent variable models, the interpretation of the covariate estimates requires care. Despite assertions to the contrary in many published papers, it is shown that the estimated qualitative effect of a covariate on the hazard for risk j typically conveys no information on its qualitative effect on either the likelihood of, or expected time until, exit via j. This is because such magnitudes depend on the qualitative and quantitative effects of the covariate on other risks which cannot be ignored. The point is demonstrated by using UK data on the unemployment to re-employment transitions of a sample of male job losers.     

农业产业化经营中合作经济组织地域模式探析

农村合作经济组织是农业中的一种经营方式和组织形式，本文依据在江苏农村实地调研的信息，首先探讨新型合作经济组织在中国实行家庭联产承包责任制以及由计划经济向市场经济转变过程中运作的绩效，进而归纳出四种比较有代表性的合作经济地域模式，探讨其运行方式及其在不同农业部门，不同经营环节，不同地域的适应性。     

基于自组织理论的两种城市空间结构动态模型比较

传统的经济地理学模型由于在时间上是静止，并且忽略了空间各主体间的相互作用机制，因而是在均衡的状态下对交通，土地使用和环境系统进行描述，从而在指导规划实践过程中往往存在着一些问题。随着复杂科学的进展与对其对经济村理学的渗透，一些新的理论运用复杂科学的成果成功地对传统的经济地理学模型进行了改造，本文正是介绍并比较了这样的两种城市结构自组织模型：Krugman的自组织模型与Allen的自组织模型，这两种都是基于组织理论，但又从各自不同的角度出发，模拟了城市系统的形成与发展,助于规划者理解他们所必须面对的复杂现象，具有较高的理论与实践价值。     

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF INPUT–OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS ON THE BASIS OF USE AND MAKE TABLES

Although technical coefficients are estimated on the basis of flow data (use and make matrices), they are rarely treated as random variables. If this is done, an error term is added to the coefficients, rather than derived from the distribution of the data. Even so, the calculation of multipliers, by means of the Leontief inverse, is difficult. Due to the nonlinearity of this operation, the multiplier estimates are biased. By going back to the flow data, this paper provides unbiased and consistent employment and output multipliers estimates for the Andalusian economy. Rectangular use and make matrices are accommodated and problems associated with the construction and estimation of technical coefficients and the Leontief inverse are circumvented.     

ON THE USE OF PANEL DATA METHODS TO ESTIMATE RATIONAL ADDICTION MODELS

This paper reviews some of the econometrics problems faced when estimating a rational addiction model of Becker and Murphy using panel data. This is illustrated with three empirical applications. The first application looks at cigarette consumption using macro panel data on American states over time. The second application looks at liquor consumption using macro panel data on American states over time. The third application uses micro-panel data on Russian alcohol consumption.     

ON THE ROLE OF TAX SUBSIDY SCHEME IN MONEY SEARCH MODELS*

This article investigates the roles of policy in search models with divisible money. Recently, real indeterminacy of stationary equilibria has been found in both specific and general search models with divisible money. Thus if we assume the divisibility of money, it would be quite difficult to make accurate predictions of the effects of simple monetary policies. Therefore, in this article, we introduce a certain tax subsidy scheme and show that this is effective in selecting a determinate efficient equilibrium. In other words, for a given efficient equilibrium and for any real number δ > 0 , a certain tax subsidy scheme induces a locally determinate equilibrium within the δ‐neighborhood of the given equilibrium. Moreover, the size of the tax subsidy can be arbitrarily small.