Econom(etr)ics of crime and litigation

Economists approach the behaviour of potential criminals, litigants and law enforcement agencies in terms of rational choice: the actors choose the best alternatives in terms of costs and benefits within the choices open to them. The prime focus of economists is on the general factors in society affecting the crime and litigation level and on the interaction between the crime and litigation level and the legal system. In doing so they have to study the interaction between the micro level of individual decision making and the macro level of the law enforcement system reacting on these decisions. Data are often only available at aggregate (macro) level. Econometric studies at the macro level, especially time series, have the problem that many effects have to be estimated from a limited number of data. Various types of studies and some empirical results regarding crime, litigation and the workload of judicial services are discussed.     

基于Agent的供应链复杂系统研究

针对供应链具有不确定性和随机性的动态复杂系统,运用Agent这种崭新的技术对供应链管理复杂适应系统建模,确定供应链中各Agent的行为规则,给出了Agent的Petri网交互模型。从宏观层面描述不同节点企业之间的交互作用,通过资源流将各企业连接起来。     

农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素分析

文中从宏观和微观两个层面对农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素进行了分析,在此基础上建了多元线性回归的计量模型,并利用2000年到2009年间的统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,务农和进城打工的收入差距、进城打工收入与城镇居民收入之间的差距和城镇失业率这三个宏观层面的因素是影响农村劳动力向城市迁移的主要因素。     

Incentives to move up: Effects of pay gaps between levels on employee performance

Employees of a certain rank are motivated by the pay gap between them and the levels above (upward comparison), and the pay gap between them and the levels below (downward comparison). In some cases, employees face multiple upward comparisons such as immediate and subsequent upward comparisons. We hypothesise that upward comparison matters more than downward comparison, and in the case of multiple upward comparisons, the immediate one matters more than the subsequent ones. We also hypothesise that the pay gap effect resulting from the upward/downward comparison ought to be non‐linear in that performance increases with pay gap size at a decreasing rate. The results from two empirical studies, namely, a longitudinal field study and a laboratory experiment, largely support our hypotheses.     

Macroeconomic policy and the pricing behavior of imperfectly competitive firms

This paper develops theoretical models of the effect of expansionary macroeconomic policy on the pricing behavior of pure monopolist and oligopolist firms. A number of factors are identified which affect the magnitude of the price change chosen by an imperfectly competitive firm in response to macro policy action. The behavior of oligopolistic firms in response to macro policy changes is found to be influenced by the fact that expansionary macro policy initially impacts on industry demand rather than firm demand, and that the oligopolist's consequent pricing behavior will affect the share of the industry demand increase which it is able to appropriate.     

技术势差、要素替代与制造业核心技术突破——基于系统动力学模型的理论分析

在有限的前沿技术公开度之下,巨大的技术势差是制约中国制造业核心技术突破的重要原因。从宏观上讲,经济和技术政策均会对技术变革产生一定的影响。从微观上讲,核心技术突破所获得的持续利润增长决定了企业技术研发的创新投入动机。利用产品质量模型并借鉴L-V理论,引入前沿技术势差、要素替代弹性等关键变量构建系统动力学模型,研究发现：较为宽松的技术竞争环境能够带来更高的研发产出效率,而降级技术势差初始门限值则能激发企业较高的研发投入动机;相反,要素替代弹性的上升则不利于研发投入的产出效率增加。为此,中国制造业核心技术的创新和突破,不仅需要宽松的技术竞争环境,还需要降低与国际前沿技术之间的势差。     

Passenger emergency evacuation from bus carriage: Results from realistic data and modeling simulations

One of critical challenges in the development of pedestrian models is the lack of relevant data under emergency conditions. In this paper, we reveal several behavior characteristics of passenger emergency evacuation from a burning bus carriage, by observing and analyzing a video recording, attempting to close the gap between practical observation and theoretical modeling. The analysis results show that there are considerable differences between real emergency evacuation and experimental normal evacuation with respect to the cumulative flows, flows, and time gap distributions. Additionally, the behavior of falling-down, which contributes to the formation of movable obstacles, interrupts the continuity of the evacuation process. Then, we incorporate these behavioral characteristics into a microscopic pedestrian model with a fine lattice space representation. The simulation results indicate that the escape is slowed down by the falling behavior, as well as by the luggage-carrying behavior.     

A search interpretation of the family gap

This paper proposes a general equilibrium search model to investigate what is known as the family gap: wage differentials between mothers and non-mothers. In the human capital literature a substantial amount of the family gap is left unexplained after controlling for schooling and experience. This paper suggests that differences in labor market behavior between mothers and non-mothers are an important factor in explaining the family gap. For college graduates, estimation results show that employed mothers search 70% less than non-mothers and more than 50% of the family gap can be explained by the labor market behavior differences between mothers and non-mothers. Such differences, however, can not explain the family gap for high school graduates.     

Heterogeneous wage setting and endogenous macro volatility

In order to strengthen the debate on the foundations of aggregate business cycles, the science of macroeconomics has recently benefited from a series of contributions that emphasize the complex nature of collective human action. Progressively, agent heterogeneity, local interaction, sentiment formation and out-of-equilibrium dynamics are becoming central pieces on the analysis of short-term business fluctuations. This paper offers a contribution to this new literature by exploring a macro framework where endogenous fluctuations emerge regardless from the occurrence of shocks to technology or preferences. The proposed setting separates firms into two groups, which follow different wage setting strategies. The firms may systematically change from one class of wage setters to the other following local interaction rules and by making a global assessment of the profitability of each of the wage setting alternatives. Under reasonable parameterizations, long-term large periodicity cycles are generated; these cycles might constitute a meaningful component of the observed output gap and price level volatility, a component that complements the typical view on exogenous disturbances over an otherwise stable economy.     

Determinants of Economic Interaction: Behavior or Structure

Experimental economics originated as examination of the behavior of aggregate phenomena, especially markets, populated by human participants motivated by their desire to attain their goals. The past two decades have brought two newer trends. One is a gradual but steady shift in the focus of the questions sought to be addressed through human experiments towards examination of micro level phenomena – individual preferences and behavior. The second is the expansion in the role of computer simulations to examine questions about aggregate level phenomena. This shift to individual behavior has accentuated the ever-present dilemma of social sciences in trying to be a science on one hand, and to understand our own self-conscious selves – human beings – on the other. To address this dilemma, it would be useful to recognize three streams of experimental economics: (1) macro stream to examine the properties of social structures, (2) micro stream to examine the behavior of individuals, and (3) agent stream to explore the links between the micro and macro phenomena using computer simulations. At least the structural stream can be firmly rooted in the tradition of sciences (bypassing the free-will dilemma of social sciences), while the agent stream can span the gap between the behavioral and structural streams.The author is thankful to Dorota Dobija and Juergen Huber for their helpful comments. Science does not know its debt to imagination. – Ralph Waldo Emerson Vivisection is a social evil because if it advances human knowledge, it does so at the expense of human character. – George Bernard Shaw The theoretical broadening which comes from having many humanities subjects on the campus is offset by the general dopiness of the people who study these things. – Richard P. Feynman Economics has an amazing capacity to summarize staggeringly complex phenomena by the application of only a handful of principles. – Charles R. Plott Being outside and above individual and local contingencies, collective consciousness sees things only in their permanent and fundamental aspects, which it crystallizes in ideas that can be communicated. – Emile Durkheim     

Spatial discounting and the gravity hypothesis

One of the central hypotheses in the study of spatial interaction behavior is the diminishing effect of distance on interaction. In this paper a parallel is drawn between two forms of this hypothesis: an external gravity interaction form which focuses directly on the empirically observable diminishing effect of distance on interaction, and an internal spatial discounting form which focuses rather on the diminishing effect of distance on spatial actors' preferences among interaction opportunities. The main result of the paper is to establish a connection between these two forms of the distance hypothesis. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions on spatial actors' interaction preferences are established under which these two forms are equivalent, i.e., under which spatial discounting behavior is indistinguishable from gravity interaction behavior.     

Business Strategy, Human Capital, and Managerial Incentives

We posit that the value of a manager's human capital depends on the firm's business strategy. The resulting interaction between business strategy and managerial incentives affects the organization of business activities. We illustrate the impact of this interaction on firm boundaries in a dynamic agency model. There may be disadvantages in merging two firms even when such a merger allows the internalization of externalities between the two firms. Merging, by making unprofitable certain decisions, increases the cost of inducing managerial effort. This incentive cost is a natural consequence of the manager's business-strategy-specific human capital.     

Cyclicality in losses on bank loans

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.     

Satisficing with a variable threshold

We axiomatize a model of satisficing which features random thresholds and the possibility of choice abstention. Given a menu, the decision maker first randomly draws a threshold. Next, using a list order, she searches the menu for alternatives which are at least as good as the threshold. She chooses the first such alternative she finds, and if no such alternative exists, she abstains. Since the threshold is random, so is the resulting behavior. We characterize this model using two simple axioms. In general the revelation of the model’s primitives is incomplete. We characterize a specialization of the model for which the underlying preference and list ordering are uniquely identified by choice frequencies. We also show that our model is a special Random Utility Model.     

The marketing firm and co-creation: The case of co-creation by LEGO

This article discusses the marketer and customer co-creation process within the context of bilateral contingencies. Bilateral contingencies occur when the marketers' behavior is reinforced (and/or punished) by the customers' behavior, whereas the behavior of the customers is reinforced (and/or punished) by the marketers' actions. Using the example of the LEGO community, we discuss how the marketers in the organization can respond to behaviors resulting from co-creational customer–customer exchanges. This paper fills the knowledge gap by presenting a behavior analysis framework (theory of the marketing firm) for the empirical measurement of the co-creation process.     

THE DYNAMICS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND POLITICS. THE INTRODUCTION OF ECOTAXES IN BELGIUM

In 1993 the Belgian Government introduced product charges on drink containers, batteries, certain industrial packaging, paper and disposable razors and cameras. Simultaneously, an expert commission was installed to follow up the implementation process and to propose new ecotaxes. Because the preparation of the law was not well done and only limited knowledge and experience existed, the implementation encountered serious difficulties. The commission revised the law in a global and systematic way in co-operation with the actors involved: industry, environmentalists and the administration. The methodology that was followed is explained and some important conclusions with respect to the interaction between business, politics and science considered. There is a great gap between textbook theory and the realities of the implementation process.     

高层建筑设计的结构构想探讨

通过实例探讨了高层建筑进行合理创作结构构想的必要性,提出了处理结构体系与建筑的功能、艺术形式之间的矛盾的结构构想方法,这种方法对于设计构想和结构宏观体系选择具有一定的借鉴价值。     

Age diversity management and organisational outcomes: The role of diversity perspectives

Several macro‐level and meso‐level factors have led to unprecedented proportions of aged employees in organisations, resulting in higher levels of age diversity. Little is known about which age diversity practices and programmes are effective in which types of organisations for which outcomes. Derived from social exchange theory, this paper proposes and tests positive relationships between age diversity practices and organisational outcomes and work‐life programmes and organisational outcomes. Derived from contingency theory, it also proposes and tests for a moderating effect of diversity perspective (fairness and discrimination vs. synergy) on the two main relationships. Data were collected from 248 medium to large‐sized for‐profit organisations. The results partially support both main effect hypotheses and one moderating effect hypothesis. The findings suggest different organisational outcomes for age diversity practices and work‐life programmes. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Social Network Analysis and the Sociology of Economics: Filling a Blind Spot with the Idea of Social Embeddedness

Today, social networks analysis has become a cross‐disciplinary subject with applications in diverse fields of social and economic life. Different network designs provide different opportunities to communicate, to receive information, and to create different structures of cultural capital. Network analysis explores modes and contents of exchanges between different agents when symbols, emotions, or goods and services are exchanged. The message of the article is that social network analysis provides a tool to foster the understanding of social dynamics, which enhances recent debate on a micro‐macro gap and on limitations of the cognitive and explanatory potential of economics.     

负面人格特质对领导个体行为的影响

负面人格特质是指在压力或危机下个体表现出的趋向人格障碍的个性特质，这些负面人格特质会导致领导者做出不同的个体行为，进而影响领导者的绩效表现。本文从领导者的决策行为以及人际互动行为两方面回顾了国内外有关负面人格特质对领导个体行为影响的实证研究，并对研究方法、理论依据存在的不足进行评述，提出未来的研究应该：（1）基于具体情境，研究负面人格特质与领导个体行为之间的关系；（2）从组织一员工双向视角考察负面人格特质对双方影响的动态过程。