电子商务环境下的企业财务危机预警研究

本文通过对国内外财务危机预警模型的比较,运用二值多元logistic回归方法构建了电子商务环境下企业财务危机的预警模型。测试结果表明,模型对估计样本的准确判别率为92．2％,对控制样本的准确判别率为81．25％,说明了该模型具有较好的预警能力,且预警效果具有一定的稳定性。     

A Research on the Domain of Sport Tourism

Sport-based travel has grown dramatically over the past two decades but it has only recently become the focus of concentrated academic inquiry. This paper contributes to the emerging body of literature by conceptualizing sport in the context of tourism＇s activity, spatial and temporal dimensions. The context of this paper includes current lines of inquiry, the domain of tourism and the domain of sport.     

对科学合作促进科学跨学科发展的计量分析

基于科学计量学的词频分析方法,以SCI、SSCI和A＆HCI3个世界权威数据库作为数据统计源,检索到5 595篇有关科学合作的文献,借助wordsmith tool词频分析工具,对科学跨学科合作活动以及科学合作对交叉学科产生与发展的促进进行计量分析,试图从科学合作现象定量展现科学跨学科发展的规律,揭示大科学时代新兴学科产生及发展的特征。     

On the Internal Consistency of Stock Market Forecasts

Using the Livingston survey data, we test internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term, and long-term stock market forecasts of the S&P 500®. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a forecast formation process featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find some weak evidence of internal inconsistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

新型农村社会养老保险参保率影响因素实证研究:村域社会资本理论视角

基于对河南省某县47个村域的调查,实证检验了村域社会资本对新型农村社会养老保险参保率的影响。因子分析发现,村域社会资本分为村域信任、村域互惠、村域规范和村域互动四个因子。回归分析发现,村域信任和村域互动对参保率具有正效应,村域互惠没有通过显著性检验,村域规范对参保率的正效应缺乏稳定性。对解释新型农村社会养老保险参保率的差异提供了一个新的理论视角。     

磁悬浮变频驱动离心式冷水机组经济性分析

选用高效的冷水机组是空调系统节能减排的有效途径。磁悬浮变频驱动离心式冷水机组有着较高的综合部分负荷效率。文章针对医院空调系统,依据整个制冷期内空调冷负荷的变化,通过对冷水机组的选型分析,结合工程实例,对磁悬浮变频驱动离心式冷水机组进行简单的经济性分析及CO2减排量的计算。     

一种新话语的孕育：刑法知识的进阶与转型——也读陈兴良之作《刑法知识论》

我国现行刑法体系从其本源上看,发端于20世纪50年代的前苏联.尤其是作为刑法根基的犯罪构成理论,更是＂饱受＂前苏联刑法犯罪构成理论的＂滋养＂.在当时引入该犯罪构成理论对我国刑法的萌生产生了巨大的影响,其价值自不待言.而现今这一＂嫁接＂的理论正在接受着来自欧陆德日刑法、英美法系刑法等更新的、多元的、＂嫁接＂的文化际的反复冲击,已显出退却之势;再加之国内复杂的个案频发,又从另一个层面对这一刑法知识提出了挑战与要求.故而一种新的知识进阶与转型,正在悄然促成.     

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Africa

ABSTRACT

Previous empirical studies on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth are not instructive given their failure to unearth the causality trend across the different time periods. Using a more recently developed and robust indicator of financial development, we revisit the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth within the framework of a frequency-domain spectral causality technique which allows the causality to vary across time. Using data from 47 African countries over the period 1980–2016, our findings largely suggest that, even though there is some evidence of demand-following, supply-leading and feedback hypotheses, for most part, we find strong support of neutrality hypothesis. Thus, financial development and economic growth at most frequency levels evolve independently. We infer that caution must be exercised in making general conclusions about the causal nexus between financial development and economic growth.     

Moral Opinions are Conditional on the Behavior of Others

In social dilemmas individual behavior creates external effects on others. In such situations, a person's opinions concerning right and wrong might influence his behavior. Understanding moral opinions therefore is important. This paper reports on an experiment which shows that moral opinions are conditional on the behavior of others. This is demonstrated by the finding that a large majority of subjects in a public good game experiment report personal normative beliefs that increase with the actual contributions made by group members. This finding is important for the design of policies attempting to sustain public good provisions.     

信息披露质量对分析师预测的影响

作为连接上市公司与外部投资者的重要信息中介,分析师预测质量的高低对降低信息不对称,提高资本市场效率具有重要作用,而所获公司信息的质量是影响其正确分析判断的因素之一。文章利用2009-2013年我国上市公司数据,以深交所信息披露考评结果作为信息披露质量的代理变量,考察了信息披露质量提升对分析师预测误差、预测分歧度的影响。实证结果发现:信息披露质量较高的公司及信息披露质量水平提升的公司,分析师预测分歧度和预测误差也较低。这意味着,作为一个公开的重要信息来源,上市公司的信息披露质量显著影响了分析师预测。此研究结论不仅有助于监管者了解信息披露政策对资本市场参与者的现实影响,也为其合理引导公司信息披露,完善相关规范政策提供新的决策参考。     

供货频次和需求配比视角下考虑动机公平的供应链

将Rabin构建的同时包含物质效用和动机公平的效用函数引入在供货频次和需求配比视角下构建的供应链模型,研究供应方间的互惠性非理性行为。研究表明:考虑动机公平后,供应方会获得更为均等的需求配比;需求方只要与动机公平偏好程度尽可能大的供应方合作,就能尽可能地降低仓储成本。     

供货频次和需求配比视角下的供应链最优价格决策

以供货频次和需求配比为视角,构建了一个供应链动态博弈模型,研究了在需求方为先决策者和供应方为先决策者两种情形下供应链系统的最优价格决策机制,分别给出了两种情形下的最优价格决策方案,指出产品是最优价格决策中的根本性影响因素。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

科技型中小企业的业务外包战略分析

业务外包是近年来在国内外流行的管理模式 ,其管理思想是使企业将主要精力放在核心业务上 ,充分发挥优势 ,企业中的非核心业务外包给合作企业来完成。正是基于这种背景 ,本文首先分析了科技型中小企业使用外包战略对其成长的重要影响 ,其次分析了科技型中小企业业务外包的内在条件。同时本文进一步探讨了科技型中小企业常用的业务外包模式以及企业如何更好地使用业务外包的策略。     

Analysis of High Frequency Data in Finance: A Survey

This study examines the use of high frequency data in finance, including volatility estimation and jump tests. High frequency data allows the construction of model-free volatility measures for asset returns. Realized variance is a consistent estimator of quadratic variation under mild regularity conditions. Other variation concepts, such as power variation and bipower variation, are useful and important for analyzing high frequency data when jumps are present. High frequency data can also be used to test jumps in asset prices. We discuss three jump tests: bipower variation test, power variation test, and variance swap test in this study. The presence of market microstructure noise complicates the analysis of high frequency data. The survey introduces several robust methods of volatility estimation and jump tests in the presence of market microstructure noise. Finally, some applications of jump tests in asset pricing are discussed in this article.     

Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity. First version received: Jan. 2000/Final version received: March 2000     

从员工自我披露到顾客忠诚：私域运营模式下品牌关系营销研究

由于公域流量获客成本剧增,越来越多的商家加入私域流量赛道,以期实现业绩突破,但最终却收效甚微。当关系营销进入私域时代,品牌与顾客的良好关系如何实现,对应的营销策略应如何转变,现有研究还没有明确的结论。因此,文章基于基于B2C关系营销相关理论,通过访谈和问卷收集数据,探究了私域运营模式下品牌员工自我披露行为、关系质量与顾客忠诚之间的关系。结果发现,私域运营模式下品牌员工自我披露正向影响关系质量;关系质量正向影响顾客员工忠诚,继而正向影响顾客品牌忠诚;品牌员工自我披露对关系质量的影响过程中存在关系强度和性别的调节作用。研究结论有助于品牌通过私域平台充分利用员工自我披露行为发挥私域运营模式的优势,提升关系营销效果。     

Maximal Domain of Preferences in the Division Problem

The division problem consists of allocating an amount of a perfectly divisible good among a group of n agents. Sprumont (1991) showed that if agents have single-peaked preferences over their shares, then the uniform allocation rule is the unique strategy-proof, efficient, and anonymous rule. We identify the maximal set of preferences, containing the set of single-peaked preferences, under which there exists at least one rule satisfying the properties of strategy-proofness, efficiency, and strong symmetry. In addition, we show that our characterization implies a slightly weaker version of Ching and Serizawa's (1998) result. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, D78, D63.     

Representing the Politics of Borders: Unorthodox Maps in Reclus,Mackinder and Others

The relationship between cartography and power has aroused much interest in recent years, stimulated by innovative critical approaches. The empiricist and neo-positivist paradigms, no longer satisfactory, have been abandoned, while the analysis has been extended to include not only state-sponsored, but also popular cartography. Regardless of the character of the map or its source, it continues to be inserted in the context of the modern territorial state, as it is perceived as a key instrument for conveying the state’s narrative. Seen in this light, cartography inevitably comes out on the subordinate end of this relationship, since it fully conforms to the orthodox state-centred world view that has dominated modernity. Overturning this mechanically deconstructionist approach, this paper proposes, instead, to apply a concept introduced by John Brian Harley, the father of critical cartography – that of the map’s internal power. This concept, usually considered a given and rarely tested in empirical studies, is evaluated here through an analysis of the border sign in a series of unorthodox maps (in the work of Reclus, Mackinder, Renner, Spykman, Horrabin, Radó, Ratzel, Kjèllen, Haushofer) which have received little scientific attention to date.