Mobile capital and the home market effect

Abstract Most existing studies examine the home market effect (HME) in a framework with immobile labour as the only production factor and the assumption of a freely traded homogeneous good is known to be crucial for the HME to emerge. This study explores the HME in the presence of mobile capital by use of a footloose capital model allowing for positive transport costs of the homogeneous good. The mobile capital generates a channel to offset the trade imbalance of a country. As a result, the HME always appears for arbitrary transport costs in both sectors of differentiated and homogeneous goods.     

Spatial inequality, globalization, and footloose capital

This paper shows the equivalence of spatial inequalities in industrial location and in income by revisiting the home market effect (HME) without any homogeneous good based on a reconstructed footloose capital model. In this simple framework, spatial inequalities in industrial location and in income are the HMEs in terms of firm share and wage, respectively. We show that the larger country has a more-than-proportionate share of firms and a higher wage. Furthermore, both the wage differential and the industrial location in the larger country evolve in an inverted U-pattern when transport costs decline. Finally, we analytically examine the effects of trade liberalization on the welfare and show that both countries may gain from globalization.     

Intersectoral Adjustment and Policy Intervention: the Importance of General‐Equilibrium Effects*

We model adjustment costs in a general‐equilibrium setting using a “transport sector.” This sector provides services needed to reallocate a factor of production across two other sectors. A market imperfection in the transport sector causes adjustment to occur too slowly in the absence of government intervention. The government has a restricted menu of second‐best policies to remedy this imperfection. Given this restricted menu, the optimal policy choice depends on the government's ability to make commitments. The key to these results is our replacement of the black box of adjustment costs with an explicit model of these costs.     

对外直接投资与产业结构升级——基于中国对东盟直接投资的行业数据分析

对中国与东盟各国的产业结构进行分析发现,中国与东盟相关国家的经济互补性强,中国对其投资具有较大发展空间。随后运用灰关联度法分析了2005～2009年中国投资东盟对国内产业结构的影响,结果显示中国投资东盟的金融业、交通运输和邮政业、制造业对中国国内产业结构升级起到较强的推动作用。最后运用灰关联度预测模型,对2010～2014年中国投资东盟的产业进行分析,结论认为在此期间中国投资东盟的金融业和制造业对中国产业结构升级作用越来越强。     

Information, the Dual Economy, and Development

We examine the interactions between different institutional arrangements in a general equilibrium model of a modernizing economy. There is a modern sector, where productivity is high but information asymmetries are large, and a traditional sector where productivity is low but information asymmetries are small. Consequently, agency costs in the modern sector make consumption lending difficult, while such lending is readily done in the traditional sector. The resulting trade-off between credit availability and productivity implies that not everyone will move to the modern sector. In fact, the laissez-faire level of modernization may fail to maximize net social surplus.
This situation may also hold in the long run: in a dynamic version of the model, a "trickle-down" effect links the process of modernization with reduction in modern sector agency costs. This effect may be too weak and the economy may get stuck in a trap and never fully modernize. The two-sector structure also yields a natural theoretical testing ground for the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis: we show that even within the "sectoral shifting" class of models, this phenomenon is not robust to small changes in model specification.     

TRANSPORTATION COSTS,AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY,AND CROSS‐COUNTRY INCOME DIFFERENCES*

I study the role of transportation for development by introducing regional trade and a transportation sector into the standard two‐sector model of agriculture–nonagriculture. Low transport productivity can distort the allocation of resources across geographically dispersed production units within sectors and between agriculture and nonagriculture. I infer cross‐country transport productivity disparities from observed domestic transport costs and transport infrastructure stocks. “Endowing” rich countries with the transport productivity of poor countries would reduce their income by 10%. Combining transport productivity disparities with disparities in nonagricultural productivity and arable land the model yields a 50% higher rich–poor income ratio than the two‐sector model.     

A dual economy model of endogenous growth with R&D and market structure

This paper develops a dual economy endogenous growth model to consider the effects of market structure and innovation on the rate of growth of an economy. There is an innovative goods sector where firms consistently invest in research and development to produce new products within a framework of monopolistic competition. Firms in the traditional goods sector produce a homogenous good, compete in a form of oligopoly (quantity competition), and seek to reduce their production costs. It is shown that growth is increasing in the market power that firms in the innovative goods sector obtain but decreasing in the equilibrium number of firms in the traditional goods sector.     

Energy prices and the expansion of world trade

The share of merchandise output that is internationally traded has significantly increased while tariffs have fallen. However, standard trade models have surprising difficulty linking these two facts. Trade growth slowed in the 1970s as tariffs fell relatively sharply while after the late 1980s trade grew quickly as tariffs fell slowly. This pattern implies that the price-import elasticity has changed over time. Also, tariffs have not fallen enough to generate such a large increase in trade given estimates of this elasticity. Changes in transport costs can resolve both puzzles. I present a vertical specialization trade model with an energy-using transportation sector. In the simulated model, trade growth slows from 1974 to 1985. The oil shocks raised transport costs, offsetting falling tariffs, so the price-import elasticity no longer needs to change. It also generates the observed volume of trade growth since transport costs have fallen over the long run.     

From Industrial Policy to Innovation Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage*

Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backwards” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy. Rather than traditional industrial or science and technology policy, financial and labor market reforms appear more promising. As a group, Japan's industrial firms are competitive relative to their foreign counterparts. Where Japan falls behind is in the heavily regulated service sector. The problems appear to be due less to a lack of industrial policy than to an excess of regulation. Japan may have more to gain through restructuring the lagging service sector than by expending resources in pursuit of marginal gains in the industrial sector.     

Fair prices exist always in production networks

Given a network model of an economic system (e.g., a sector of a regional industrial economy, or an economic-technological system), inclusive the mutual commodity supplies of the nodes in the network and the costs for processing and transportation, it is shown that unique fair prices for the output commodities of the networks exist, provided that each node contributes to these output commodities.     

Moving beyond the iceberg model: The role of trade relations in endogenizing transportation costs in computable general equilibrium models

Modeling trade and transportation costs is an essential part of multiregional or spatial computable general equilibrium models where interregional trade plays an important rolein shaping economic activity. The majority of such models use the iceberg trade cost approach where part of the produced output (representing the material costs of transportation) is assumed to melt away during transportation. There are a few models which employ a more refined approach with an explicit transportation sector providing transportation services which are then used to ship goods between locations. In this paper we show that this approach, although much more convenient than the iceberg approach, still lacks full usability due to the fact that markets, hence prices are defined at the regional level and as a result, transportation costs can not be endogenous at the trade relation level. Moreover, under regional level market clearing the iceberg and the more detailed approach are equivalent. We propose to refine the definition of market equilibrium and move it to the trade relation level. Using this approach we can gain full advantage of the explicit transport sector in the model with respect to trade cost evolution. We show through simulations that refining the way trade costs are modelled indeed gains new insights, and that moving the market definition to the trade relational level leads to qualitative changes in the effect of labor supply shocks on main model variables. The paper also presents a method to estimate a SAM by reallocating data from standard industries to a transportation sector which is then consistent with the model setup. This SAM can be used to calibrate the refined model with a detailed transportation sector.     

成渝经济区城际轨道交通网空间布局合理性分析——基于空间经济学原理

根据中心地理论及空间经济学的基本原理,首先通过引入冰山运输成本建立了一个以重庆、川南、川东北、成都平原四个城市圈为支撑点的空间菱形经济模型,然后分析了不同的运输成本对产业集聚的影响,最后将成渝经济区城际轨道交通网的空间布局与城市圈的空间菱形模型相结合,阐释了城际轨道交通网规划的合理性。结果表明,城际轨道交通网的空间布局可降低各城市圈之间的运输成本,从而促进经济区内专业化分工和产业集聚、加快成渝城市群一体化进程。     

Home market effect in the presence of multinational activities: location and nationality

This study examines the phenomenon of home market effect (HME) through a framework where firms can serve a foreign market either via trade or via foreign direct investment (FDI). The results show that HME holds when determined through both location-based and nationality-based criteria. However, compared to the original measure of HME in the absence of FDI, the magnitude of the location-based HME is smaller whereas that of the nationality-based HME is larger. Comparative statics indicate that an increase in trade barriers reduces the magnitude of the location-based HME and that an increase in operative barriers facing foreign affiliates reduces the magnitude of the nationality-based HME. Also, larger restrictions on the foreign ownership of capital accentuate the location-based HME but attenuate the nationality-based HME.     

Foreign Direct Investment, inequality, and growth

This paper examines the interactions between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), inequality, and growth, both from an empirical and a theoretical point of view. Using a panel of 119 developing countries, we observe that FDI promotes both inequality and growth, and tends to reduce the share of agriculture to GDP in the recipient country. We then set up a growth model of a dual economy in which the traditional (agricultural) sector uses a diminishing returns technology, while FDI is the engine of growth in the modern (industrial) sector. The main predictions of the model are consistent with the stylized facts observed in the data.     

Informality,innovation, and aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the costs of innovation in the formal sector temper or magnify the impacts of traditional policy levers such as taxation on sectoral choice. I embed a decision whether to operate formally or informally into a richer, general equilibrium model. Formal firms are subject to taxation, but they can improve their productivity through process innovation. Informal firms can potentially avoid taxation, and their productivity is determined by productivity growth in the formal sector. I find that changing tax rates from 50% to 60% decreases formal‐sector participation by 20.9%; however, this percentage falls by 10% when the cost of innovation is lower in the formal sector. The model also illustrates how changes in tax policy affect total factor productivity growth by limiting both the number of formal‐sector firms and the intensity of innovation. These results indicate a potential mechanism to induce firms to operate formally or mitigate harmful impacts of necessary tax changes.     

Distribution Costs and International Trade: A Ricardian Model

This paper studies the role of the distribution sector in determining a country's pattern and terms of trade. The effect of an improvement in distribution technology is analyzed using a Ricardian trade model with an endogenous distribution sector. The results are found to depend on the magnitude of distribution costs relative to manufacturing costs and preference for distribution services in the trading countries. This has important implications for the Structural Impediments Initiative, which maintains that a more efficient distribution sector in Japan would benefit both the USA and Japan.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE THROUGH PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Under China's hukou system, I analyze the relationship between public education expenditure and structural change as measured by labor transfer from the agricultural to the industrial sector. I construct a two‐sector general equilibrium model, which shows that in the short term, public education expenditure crowds out industrial capital accumulation and temporarily hinders structural change, but in the long term, public education expenditure permanently reduces rural residents' education costs. An inverted U‐shape relationship implied by the empirical evidence indicates that China's current public education expenditure is far from optimal, suggesting that China should increase it, especially for rural residents. (JEL I28, O11, O15)     

Do transport costs have a differential effect on trade at the sectoral level?

This article aims to analyse the determinants of transport costs and to investigate their influence in international trade with a sample of disaggregate trade data. First, we estimate a transport-cost function using cross-section data on maritime and overland transport for four sectors: agro-industry, ceramic tiles, motor vehicle parts and accessories, and electrical and mechanical household appliances, obtained from interviews held with Spanish exporters and logistics operators in 2001. Second, we study the relationship between transport costs and trade and estimate the elasticity of trade with respect to transport costs for each sector. Important differences for high value- and low value-added sectors are observed. The trade-equation estimation shows that higher transport costs significantly deter trade, especially in high value-added sectors.     

Implied discount rate and payback threshold of energy efficiency investment in the industrial sector

The industrial sector is responsible for about a third of the energy usage in the United States, and there is significant energy saving potential from the industrial sector. However, the phenomenon of “energy efficiency gap” – the scenario in which cost-effective energy efficient technologies enjoy only limited market success – appears frequently in the industrial sector. This article tries to explain this efficiency gap in the industrial sector by empirically estimating the implied discount rates and payback thresholds industrial firms use to evaluate their energy efficiency investments. Using the Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) database from 2002 to 2011, with more than 30 000 energy efficiency recommendations, this article builds structural models of firms’ evaluation of an energy efficiency project. The model results show that the implied discount rates of medium to small industrial firms range from 40 to 45%, and the average payback threshold is about 9 months.     

Trade,transport costs and trade imbalances: An empirical examination of international markets and backhauls

The US trade deficit has been growing for over 25 years and has been accompanied by enlarging freight rate differentials. While traditional models of trade have ignored these gaps assuming symmetry across all bilateral trade costs, the specific linkages between trade imbalances and international transportation costs have remained unexplored. Given the current trade policies, the implications arising from the endogenous adjustment of bilateral transport costs to policy-induced changes in the US trade deficit are of particular importance. To break new ground on this issue, we develop and estimate a model of international trade and transportation that accounts for the effects of persistent trade imbalances. The theoretical results are supported by our empirical analysis and indicate that bilateral transport costs adjust to a country's trade imbalance. The implication is that a unilateral import policy, for example, will cause spillover effects into the bilaterally integrated export market. To illustrate, we use our empirical results to simulate the anticipated spillover effect from the Chinese ban on waste imports. We find that China's ban and the projected 1.5% rise in the US trade deficit will lead to not only a 0.77% reduction of transport costs charged on US exports to China but also a 0.34% increase in transport costs on US imports from China.