The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality Behavior after the 1980s on the Poverty Rate for the Elderly in Japan -Analysis Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model-

The social security system in Japan was developed under the premise that postwar families represented the most common type of family. A “postwar famil” refers to a family in which: (1) men and women are married; (2) husbands work as regular employees and wives are dependent homemakers; and (3) husbands and wives seldom get divorced. Therefore, the social security system is particularly generous towards dependent wives and widows. However, these premises are no longer valid because Japanese nuptiality behavior has completely changed since the 1980s. Marriage rates have decreased and divorce rates have significantly increased. Nevertheless, society still suffers from a wage inequality between men and women. As a result, the number of never-married or divorced elderly women will increase, and these women might face a serious poverty risk in the future. In this study, the author makes simulations of the living arrangements and poverty rates for the elderly in Japan and evaluates the effect of changes in nuptiality behavior on these poverty rates using a dynamic microsimulation model. The simulation results indicate that changes in nuptiality behavior will affect the poverty rate for elderly women, but not for elderly men.     

Research Note: The Paradox of Cloud Computing in Japan

Cloud Computing is defined as computer usage delivered as a service over the Internet. This cloud computing is classified as public computing, private computing, or hybrid computing. Public cloud computing is open to any customer who pays service charges. On the contrary, private cloud computing is used by a member of a company who has constructed a cloud computing system over a restricted domain on that company's information infrastructure. Hybrid cloud computing is a mix of both the public and private. Which type of cloud computing is popular in Japan? To answer this question I mailed questionnaires to 2,284 enterprises listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market in 2012 and 2013. I analyzed the relationship between these answers and financial indexes using a multinomial logistic regression model. I concluded that the total assets was the most effective factor in the decision to introduce the public cloud, and the accumulated profit was one of the most effective factors in the decision to introduce the hybrid cloud. These findings are not consistent with orthodox price theory.     

The Boosting Effect of E-WOM on Macro-level Consumption: A Cross-Industry Empirical Analysis in Japan

In this study, we carry out an empirical analysis on how electronic word-of-mouth (hereinafter “e-WOM”) marketing on e-WOM websites and electronic-commerce websites on the Internet boosts consumption on a macro-level. In our analysis, we conduct a model analysis of consumer behavior using data composed of more than 30,000 questionnaire surveys and quantitatively find the elasticity coefficient of the boost to consumption by performing a two-step GMM (generalized method of moments), which uses instrumental variables. The results of the analysis show e-WOM significantly increased expenditures in six fields: computers, electrical appliances, etc.; music; hobbies; clothing, accessories, etc.; beauty products, etc.; and goods for everyday life, etc. Furthermore, there was no field that had a significantly negative value. These results showed that, in the majority of the target fields, e-WOM had not only the effect of winning customers from the competition, but also the effect of boosting consumption on a macro-level. In addition, even from people’s subjective evaluations, there were many in all the generational groups who said that e-WOM boosted expenditures.     

The Effect of Information Communication Technology and Corporate Organizational Reforms on Productivity in Japan: Firm- level Evidence

Our main objective in this paper is to understand how Japanese firms can increase productivity by utilizing Information and Communication Technology (ICT). E-commerce, BPO (Business Process Outsourcing), and SCM (Supply Chain Management) are popular in Japan, so a new type of ICT might offer an opportunity for Japanese firms to change current business relations or to start up new ones. The novelty of this paper is in its empirical study of the combination of ICT promotion and a variety of business organizational changes needed to discover which type of business organizational change is suitable for raising productivity in Japan. For workplace organization within firms, we discuss the decentralization or centralization of decision-making power and the flattening of the corporate hierarchy. For business relational changes, we discuss the outsourcing of the business process and the start up of new business relations. Our main result is that in general, the promotion of ICT has better effects in reforms related to changes in business relations among business partners, rather than to reforms within a firm. Starting up new business relations that require planning and R&D show the best chances of raising productivity using ICT promotion.     

对软件源代码的商业秘密保护

软件开发人员掌握的核心技术往往使企业在面临日益激烈的竞争中获得竞争优势,甚至关系到企业的兴衰成亡。因技术人才的流动而导致的知识产权流失现象在软件企业中相当普遍而且比较严重。     

The Effectiveness of Social Media for Business Activities in Japanese Firms

A large number of firms use social media for various business activities. This paper clarifies how social media has become effective to sales in Japanese firms. To this purpose, the following are addressed: (i) whether social media is useful for company activities, (ii) what kinds of business activities are affected using social media, and (iii) how social media improves the final outcomes of sales for firms. This study uses data of business activities and social media conducted in 2014. Probit analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) are employed. Probit analysis clarifies the relationships between the effects of social media and its use in sales. The SEM model clarifies the relationships among the effects of social media use in business. In the SEM, a model is examined by taking sales caused by use of social media as an explained variable, while the explanatory variables are the first and intermediate effects of social media. The results indicate that social media is effective for business activities such as promoting sales. This study may help to promote social media in Japanese firms.     

The Role of Cross-Border Networks of Skilled Labor in Offshore Outsourcing: Empirical Evidence Based on the Network Theory

This study investigates the determinant role of the cross-border movement of skilled labor in the expansion of service trade between the US, and both developed and developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the key concepts of network theory as an analytical framework and conduct panel data analysis and graphical modeling analysis for 31 countries from 1999 to 2008. In this decade, offshore outsourcing in the service trade took off worldwide. We use data for each country’s service exports to the US, number of H-1B visas issued, GNI per-capita, network readiness index, and an English dummy for the official language. We illustrate the trajectory and interactions between these factors. These analyses yield three observations. First, service trade with the US is more intensive among higher income countries. Second, the number of H-1B visas issued has a positive effect on service exports to the US. Third, individuals in lower income countries tend to desire H-1B visas and create intensive skilled labor networks with the US, the path through which developing countries such as India expanded their service exports to the US.     

The Contents-Based Website Classification for the Internet Advertising Planning: An Empirical Application of the Natural Language Analysis

This study proposes a model for website classification using website content, and discusses applications for the Internet advertising (ad) strategies. Internet ad agencies have a vast amount of ad-spaces embedded in websites and have to choose which advertisements are feasible for place. Therefore, ad agencies have to know the properties and topics of each website to optimize advertising submission strategy. However, since website content is in natural languages, they have to convert these qualitative sentences into quantitative data if they want to classify websites using statistical models. To address this issue, this study applies statistical analysis to website information written in natural languages. We apply a dictionary of neologisms to decompose website sentences into words and create a data set of indicator matrices to classify the websites. From the data set, we estimate the topics of each website using latent Dirichlet allocation, which is fast and robust method for sparse matrices. Finally, we discuss how to apply the results obtained to optimize ad strategies.     

文化对中国未来发展的关键意义

最近,全社会都在关注文化问题,尤其是文化作为国家关注的焦点上升为战略的高度,更凸显了文化发展对于整个社会发展的重大意义,显示了中国社会面对未来长远发展的新视角和新战略。     

The Substitution Effect of Mobile Games on Console Games: An Empirical Analysis of the Japanese Video Game Industry

In this paper, we discuss the substitution effects between mobile games and console games. We estimate such effects by a fixed-effect regression with instrumental variables using panel data of about 100,000 observations. The results showed that the substitution effects of playing smart devices on 3DS, Wii, and PSP were recognizable, but did not have significant effects on PS3, and the substitution effects on PSP were very small. Therefore, mobile games had a substitution effect on casual console games, or on console games in which the play situation resembled mobile games. In addition, the substitution effects were at most about 0.1. The substitution effects were small. Our results indicate that mobile games represent the pioneers in the new market of gaming at least during our observation period. But new games and traditional games will coexist for a while.     

誓将问鼎全球科学新高度第二届“挑战爱因斯坦相对论学术研讨会＂在京召开

2011年9月,从瑞士日内瓦欧洲粒子物理研究所（CERN）实验室向454英里之外的意大利INFNGranSasso实验室发射的中微子束似乎以超过真空中光速0．0025％的速度跨越了地球。如果这个实验能够重复,那么迄今为止经典物理学中一些无可争议的根基将被撼动。     

为海淀第三次文代会礼赞

北风呼啸 吹不息胸中腾腾的烈焰 寒流滚滚 冻不僵心中陡起的狂澜     

Research Note: Analysis of the Characteristics of Victims in Information Security Incident Damages: The Case of Japanese Internet Users

In this article, the authors investigate the attributes of victims in information security incident damages for the purpose of reducing the damages. The Information-Technology Promotion Agency, Japan, in 2010, conducted an Internet survey targeted to Japanese Internet home users entitled, “Survey of awareness toward information security incidents” that is used in this article. Using micro data collected from this survey, they employed multinomial logit regression analysis to show factors affecting the user’s experience of the incidents of damage through particular incidents. They concluded that the overconfidence regarding information security knowledge increased the probability for phishing and spoofing.