Dynamic Microsimulation Modeling for Policy Support: An Application to Belgium and possibilities for Japan

This paper provides an overview of dynamic microsimulation modeling as well as its recent developments. It then discusses in detail a recent trend in microsimulation research, which uses alignment methodologies to simulate microsimulation models in conjunction with macro-economic models. The goal of this ??top down-integrated approach?? is to jointly assess the budgetary costs of demographic ageing and pension reform, as well as their consequences on the adequacy of pensions. This paper then discusses, also in detail, how such an integrated approach using shared demographic and macroeconomic assumptions has been developed in Belgium. It describes the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, highlighting how it aligns to the simulation results of the semi-aggregate model MALTESE. Finally, this paper suggests that the joint assessment using the joint application of two similar models might be useful to assess pension reform in the Japanese context.     

The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality Behavior after the 1980s on the Poverty Rate for the Elderly in Japan -Analysis Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model-

The social security system in Japan was developed under the premise that postwar families represented the most common type of family. A “postwar famil” refers to a family in which: (1) men and women are married; (2) husbands work as regular employees and wives are dependent homemakers; and (3) husbands and wives seldom get divorced. Therefore, the social security system is particularly generous towards dependent wives and widows. However, these premises are no longer valid because Japanese nuptiality behavior has completely changed since the 1980s. Marriage rates have decreased and divorce rates have significantly increased. Nevertheless, society still suffers from a wage inequality between men and women. As a result, the number of never-married or divorced elderly women will increase, and these women might face a serious poverty risk in the future. In this study, the author makes simulations of the living arrangements and poverty rates for the elderly in Japan and evaluates the effect of changes in nuptiality behavior on these poverty rates using a dynamic microsimulation model. The simulation results indicate that changes in nuptiality behavior will affect the poverty rate for elderly women, but not for elderly men.     

新时代的购物革命

购物已成为人们日常生活中必不可少的休闲活动,伴随着人们生活水平的提高以及生活模式的颠覆,购物休闲化、购物时间合理化、购物方式便捷化已经成为急需解决的问题。购物是人们日常生活中必不可少的休闲活动,近年来随着人们收入水平大幅提高,购买商品和服务的数量与质量也大大增加。伴随着人们生活水平的提高以及生活模式的颠覆,购物休闲化、购物时间合理化、购物方式便捷化已经成为急需解决的问题。据北京市统计局的数据显示,2011年北京市社会商品零售总额是6900.3亿元,而在2001年仅为1593.5亿元。     

A Microsimulation Model for Projections of Japanese Socioeconomic Structure

The Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM) is a microsimulation model for the Japanese population that was first developed in the 1980s as a tool for household simulation. This study attempted to improve the conventional INAHSIM in order to construct a more comprehensive alternative that incorporates a larger number of social and economic elements. It also overcame the problem for simulation—the lack of kinship relations in the initial population—by imputing parent-child relationships between those parents and children who do not live together. This paper provides an overview of INAHSIM and adds certain details of the imputation that is essential for simulating the life event of “adult children resettling to care for their aged parents.” In addition, I will show the importance of the said life event in Japan by comparing the difference in the family type of elderly people between its future distribution with or without this life event. Finally, I will discuss the future possibilities for research on microsimulation models that will play an important role in policy making.     

叶赫那拉后人今何在？

叶赫部铁马金戈、刀光剑影的历史已经一去不复返了。如今,叶赫人民正在这片人杰地灵的土地上安居乐业。     

Sales Strategy Mining Support with Visualization of Moving History

Strategic usage in data mining of sales data has come under increased focus as a result of the growth of data mining studies using electrical data, such as Point of Sale (POS) data. However, many of these mining systems only output results such as frequently appearing patterns, while, instead, they should be aimed at people who mine data. In this paper, a framework for leading and supporting new ideas from data is introduced. Based on this framework, a system that supports strategic usage in the data mining of sales data is proposed. The system deals not only with POS data, but also with the moving history of each customer. The system visualizes POS and moving history data, so that an analyzer inputs conditions to narrow down customers and acquires customer features. In addition to the ordinal outputs of a mining system, the analyzer interprets the meaning of his/her input and output to create a new strategy based on the framework. According to the experimental results, new strategies derived from the moving history were created.     

A Taxi Zoning Analysis Using Large-Scale Probe Data: A Case Study for Metropolitan Bangkok

Taxis are considered one of the most convenient means of transportation, especially when people have to travel off-route, where public transportation is not a feasible option, and also when they need to reach a destination according to what is most convenient for them. However, many issues exist about taxi services, such as the problems of passengers who are unable to get taxi service at the location of their choice, or problems concerning when they need the taxi service to arrive. These problems may be due to the unavailability of the taxi at that particular location or due to the taxi driver not wanting to provide service. A taxi driver may not want to provide service to a potential passenger, because they may have preferences on the direction and areas they want to go or because of the different types of service zoning. Understanding the behaviors of taxi drivers and the characteristics of the trip/travel might be helpful to solving such issues. In this study, we conducted an analysis from a questionnaire survey and large-scale taxi probe data to understand taxi service behavior, travel characteristics, and to discover taxi service zoning characteristics. As a result, four types of taxi service zones including isolated zones, interactive zones, special service zones, and target zones were encountered. Travel characteristics were calculated and analyzed at different criteria, such as weekdays, weekends, and various time windows in a single day. The result of these characteristics was explained according to their similarities and dissimilarities in each type of zone. The discovery of the different zones and their respective definitions might be a good initiative for further development of a policy for taxi drivers to provide better service for passengers.     

Parallel Consultant-Guided Search with Crossover

Consultant-guided search (CGS) is a recent metaheuristic method. This approach is an algorithm in which a virtual person called a client creates a solution based on consultation with a virtual person called a consultant. In this study, we propose a parallel CGS algorithm with a genetic algorithm’s crossover and selection, and calculate an approximation solution for the traveling salesman problem. We execute a computer experiment using the benchmark problems (TSPLIB). Our algorithm provides a solution with less than 3.3% error rate for problem instances using less than 6000 cities.     

A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.     

文化薪火相传 唱响城市之韵——海淀区“青少年非遗大课堂”活动渐入高潮

非物质文化遗产是中华民族优秀传统文化的重要体现和标志,只有植根于人民才有生命力,只有与青少年结合才会有希望。     

Data Mining Approach for Direct Marketing of Banking Products with Profit/Cost Analysis

Nowadays, many businesses, such as banks, use direct marketing methods to reach customers to minimize the campaigning cost and maximize the return rate. To achieve this, huge customer data should be analyzed to determine the most appropriate product offer for each customer and the most effective channel to reach her/him. However, since only a very small amount of responses collected from the customers are positive to the offers, the dataset is very imbalanced. This decreases sensitivity ratio of prediction results and makes it difficult to make a successful product and channel selection for the offer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid system, which first classifies the customers to decide if s/he is interested in the offered product, and then clusters them for product and channel suggestions. Experiments with real life banking data show very promising accuracy results for predicting the proper product and channel for the customers. Moreover, cost-profit analysis is also added to this problem. Our experiment results show that the proposed method decreases a fraction of the total profit, but since the decrease in the total cost is very large, there is a huge increase in the overall profit/cost ratio.     

如何推进不完美的改革走向完美？

发展起来的问题、公平正义的焦虑、路径锁定的忧叹……在邓小平南方谈话20周年、党的十八大即将召开之际，人们对改革的普遍关切，标志着30多年来以开放为先导的改革进入了新的历史方位。对新时期的改革。宁要微词，不要危机；宁要“不完美”的改革，不要不改革的危机。（《人民日报》2月23日）     

Agent-based simulation approach for disaster rescue using active RFID

After the 2004 earthquake in Japan’sNiigata Prefecture, there were many difficulties finding the victims. The earthquake caused a wired network disconnection. In addition, fixed-phone and cell-phone service systems crashed due to the rapid increase in the volume of communications. The systems’ collapse was due to the large number of users who were worried about the safety of their relatives. The same situation happened during Hurricane Katrina in the USA. Reflecting on these situations, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is trying to adopt several methods to correct these communications problems. Although these methods have not been disclosed precisely yet, we think that a predominant goal of one of the methods is most likely to find victims using RFIDs (Radio Frequency Identification) with computer sensors. To do this, the RFID method would have to be incorporated in the following ways: 1) by scattering sensor devices from helicopters when a large-scale disaster such as an earthquake occurs, 2) by making RFIDs self-organized into a network, and 3) by making the self-organized network pinpoint the position of victims. A certain amount of field-testing may be necessary to confirm the effects of this plan. However, such testing requires a great amount of time and high costs. Therefore, we adopt an agent-based simulation for such a test. In this paper, we pay specific attention to a simple and assured algorithm for discovering victims using RFIDs. First, we explain our method to confirm the location of victims. Second, we explain our method for pinpointing the position of victims using trilateration. Finally, we present our simulation results.     

Contributions of Econometrics to Public Policy Analysis in the Information Age

In this paper we model U.S. economic growth over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S. economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus for growth of labor demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology. This is a revised version of the keynote speech that I delivered on 16 January 2009 at the 6th International Conference of Socionetwork Strategies, at Kansai University, Japan.     

Opportunities for Crossing the Chasm between Early Adopters and the Early Majority through New Uses of Innovative Products

Crossing the chasm between early adopters and an early majority is an important issue for innovation diffusion. This research addresses the uses of innovative products used by early adopters to solve the problem of crossing the chasm. First, a Human-Centered Computing System (HCCS) is used to extract the uses of innovative products by early adopters to create an advertising scenario, which in turn, is an opportunity for the early majority to cross the chasm. Secondly, our method is used to conduct a two-fold Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) test, i.e., before and after consumers read the advertising scenario. Lastly, clustering analysis is employed to classify the consumers and then to calculate the number of consumers in each cluster. The results of this experiment reveal that 22% of additional consumers agree with the use of innovative products by early adopters. The results also indicate that the uses of innovative products are likely to cross the chasm between early adopters and an early majority.     

Integrating Smart Glasses with Question-Answering Module in Assistant Work Environment

Recently, smart glasses have been applied in the field of maintenance, with which a worker goes well during work by contacting a support operator from a remote location. The worker, however, cannot go well if the support operator is not there. To solve the issues, this paper discusses how a work system should be developed by integrating smart glasses with a question-answering module. We design the work knowledge acquired from skilled people and manuals as a workflow for when type of question, rule base for how, goal tree for why, domain ontologies, and its RDF data for what. Workers can receive answers from the question-answering module incorporated with multiple knowledge bases for four types of question. The authors conducted a demonstration experiment and found that workers could perform the work more autonomously by importing the system.     

“创新引领未来，创意改变世界”——中关村自主创新成果展亮相第十五届北京科博会

2012年5月23日,第十五届中国北京国际科技产业博览会于中国国际展览中心拉开帷幕。其中,4号馆内,以“创新引领未来．创意改变世界”为主题的中关村国家自主创新示范区自主创新成果展,展现了城市“智慧”．点亮了百姓生活。     

中石化凭什么“家丑不外扬”？

相比卷款潜逃事件本身所反映出的管理制度漏洞,中石化在事件发生后对公众利益的无底线懈怠和对犯罪员工的无原则包庇,更加让人感到难以接受。这不得不让人怀疑,挪用公款在中石化是否是一种常态化的潜规则,只要不意外曝光都只需内部自行处理？     

Fuzzy Similarity Matching Method for Interior Design Drawing Recommendation

A cosine similarity matching method for a binary measurement scale was proposed and applied to a recommender system in our previous study for retrieving interior design drawings. However, for mixed types of intervals, nominal, ordinal, or ratio scales, this matching method fails, as the cosine similarity measure function is not defined for ordinal and nominal values. Compared to our previous study, this paper proposes a new fuzzy similarity matching method for mixed measurement scales and applies the matching method to a recommender system. A numerical case study was carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness and capabilities of the proposed similarity matching method for handling interior design drawing recommendation problems.     

Technological Progress and the Wage Growth of Older Japanese Workers

Declining birth and mortality rates are leading to population aging throughout the OECD countries. This paper examines one possible consequence for national productivity – we ask: Are older workers able to take advantage of new technologies as effectively as their younger counterparts? Using Japanese data for 1973-2000, we find that if we ignore job tenure, workers beyond the age of 50 do not seem as able to benefit from total factor productivity growth as their younger colleagues. However, Japanese workers past age 50 move to lesser paying positions more frequently than is common elsewhere, and we believe that the complete answer to our question depends upon whether an inability to keep up with new technologies induces late-in-career job changes or whether the changes follow, in practice, from other factors.