The J-curve effect and the US–Canada forest products trade

This paper examines the dynamic effect of the US–Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of forest products between the two countries. Special attention is given to investigate the J-curve hypothesis: whether or not the trade balance for US forest products trade with Canada benefits from a decline in the value of the US dollar. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to estimate quarterly bilateral trade data between the US and Canada from 1989 to 2005. We find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for US forest products trade with Canada.     

Identifying Macroeconomic Linkages to U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance

This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981–2003. The results show that, in the long run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and the disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance.
La présente étude porte sur les liens à court et à long terme entre la balance commerciale agricole des États-Unis, les agrégats macroéconomiques et les variables agricoles. Nous avons utilisé une analyse de cointégration et un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur comprenant des données trimestrielles de 1981 à 2003. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, le taux de change, les prix agricoles et le revenu disponible sont faiblement exogènes dans le secteur agricole des États-Unis et qu'ils ont des effets substantiels sur la balance commerciale. Les effets dynamiques à court terme combinés du taux de change, des prix et de la production agricoles ainsi que du revenu disponible expliquent les changements observés dans la balance commerciale.     

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade

Using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.     

Does the Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade between Canada and the U.S.?

This study examines the effects of the Canada–U.S. exchange rate on bilateral trade of agricultural goods between the two countries and on U.S. farm income. Special attention is given to agricultural trade between the two countries under the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). This study utilizes two time series models: the vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector moving average model (VMA) with quarterly time series data from 1983 to 2000. It is found that the exchange rate has a significant impact on U.S. agricultural trade with Canada, but the impact on U.S. agricultural price and income is insignificant. The exchange rate between the two currencies is found to be weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector, which answers a fundamental question about the role of the exchange rate in Canada–U.S. bilateral trade for agricultural products. In addition, the results point to a significant, though minimal, effect on bilateral trade due to CUSTA.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

人民币汇率变动对我国木质家具出口贸易的影响及应对措施

目前人民币汇率的浮动弹性在逐渐扩大,而汇率波动对我国出口贸易的影响也在逐渐加深。我国是世界第一大家具出口国,研究人民币汇率变动对我国木质家具出口贸易的影响意义深远。在分析人民币汇率变动对木质家具出口贸易影响的基础上,提出了我国木质家具产业的应对措施。     

中国锯材对外贸易特征实证分析

首先通过中国锯材对外贸易特征的实证分析,结果发现:中国锯材贸易具有贸易逆差大、显示性贸易竞争力弱,互补贸易明显、贸易条件恶化、贸易模式以产业间贸易为主、阔叶锯材的进口比例显著降低、进口地过于集中等特征;然后从森林资源培养、海外林业开发、提高锯材出材率、提高规模效应等方面提出中国锯材的贸易对策。     

Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data

Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected.     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国木质家具出口贸易影响

汇率是一个国家进行国际经济活动时最重要的综合性价格指标。在经济全球化这一新形势下,出口贸易作为带动经济增长、合理配置资源、引进先进技术和设备及经营理念的有效手段,对促进我国经济迅猛发展具有重要作用。基于迅速发展的我国木质家具出口贸易,汇率变动对其影响越发显著,因此认清这一影响以规避汇率风险则势在必行。     

Link between Agricultural Assistance and International Trade

This paper investigates a central part of the argument that agricultural assistance by the United States to developing nations leads to diminished export markets for U.S. farmers. A sizeable cross section of low-income and lower-middle-income nations is used to provide statistical analyses of: (1) the link between agricultural productivity and economic performance, and (2) the link between economic performance and agricultural imports. The results show that a reasonably strong case can be made for the idea that advances in agricultural productivity are associated with long-run increases in imports of cereals and other agricultural products by less wealthy nations. The connection comes via the positive income effect of general economic development. For these countries, investments in agricultural development through successful assistance are not detrimental to U.S. farm export interests in the long run. They are generally beneficial. For middle-income nations, the case is less clear and more controversial. However, nothing in the cross-section data used suggests that farm productivity improvements in these nations is systematically threatening to U.S. agricultural trade in the long run.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade

This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports.
Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets à court et à long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilatéral des produits agricoles entre les États-Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des États-Unis soient très sensibles aux taux de change bilatéraux et au revenu étranger, les importations agricoles des États-Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu intérieur des États-Unis. À court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilatéraux et le revenu des États-Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des répercussions considérables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des États-Unis.     

Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets

The linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC-12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.     

Mining booms and the exchange rate

The balance of payments identity linking the current account to net domestic investment and foreign capital inflows is used as a framework to assess the effects of a mining boom on the exchange rate. The exchange rate response is found to vary with whether the boom is generated by an increase in global demand or an increase in domestic supply, and the response varies over time as the boom moves through investment and production stages. Also, the exchange rate response depends on the mix of resident and nonresident investment funds, the share of the investment domestically sourced and the distribution of windfall income and its expenditure. A key result is the absence of a simple relationship between the terms of trade and the exchange rate.     

我国主要能源产品进出口贸易分析

20世纪90年代以来,我国能源产品进出口贸易额和贸易量大幅度增长,在全国货物贸易和矿产品进出口贸易中占有重要的地位。我国能源产品进出口贸易的特点:能源矿产品进出口贸易逆差不断扩大;贸易结构趋于合理;对石油进口的依赖程度不断提高;贸易伙伴向着多元化的方向发展。我国能源产品进出口贸易中存在的主要问题:石油进口的比重偏大,而利用效力高、又清洁的天然气和电力等能源进口比重较低;煤炭和石油进出口量大幅度增长,给我国的交运、港口转运带来了巨大的压力。为此,文章提出:要进一步加强资源外交;加快我国能源消费结构调整的步伐;提高管道石油和天然气的进口量;建立与IEA的合作关系等一些建设性的建议。     

中蒙俄经济走廊视域下中国木质家具贸易潜力测度

基于1997—2016年间中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的贸易时间序列数据,运用引力模型分析影响中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的主要因素,并进一步测算其出口潜力。结果表明:中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口均有不足。因此,应加快中蒙俄经济走廊建设,提高中国木质家具的竞争力水平,加大中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口。     

中国林产品贸易壁垒研究综述

中国加入世贸组织后,林产品国际贸易的数量和结构发生很大变化,随之而来的贸易壁垒案件给中国林产品对外贸易带来很多挑战。对中国林产品贸易壁垒研究进程及原因进行分析可知林产品国际贸易壁垒研究不足:林产品贸易壁垒数据更新速度慢;林产品国际贸易壁垒的研究对象倒向木质林产品;相关定量研究少。因此,提出加强非木质林产品贸易壁垒、具体的法律制度所形成的贸易壁垒、新的贸易壁垒形式、贸易壁垒影响量化等方面的研究。     

中国-欧盟木质林产品贸易影响因素的实证分析

基于UNcomtrade数据库整理的数据,分析中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易状况,利用扩展的引力模型识别中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易的关键影响因素。研究结果表明:中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易在2000²008年间处于增长阶段;但2008年受全球金融危机的不利影响,中国出口所占比例持续下降,贸易顺差呈缩小趋势,市场集中度与产品集中度均较高;国内生产总值、森林资源禀赋差异、劳动力资源禀赋差异、欧盟东扩及海岸线等因素对中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易具有显著的促进作用,而相对距离、汇率、金融危机等因素却起着显著的抑制作用。     

木质林产品贸易格局的社会网络分析

基于2001—2018年区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)成员国的木质林产品进出口贸易数据,采用社会网络方法分析RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易网络格局。研究表明:RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易联系比较紧密且贸易关系日益复杂;RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易网络正向着最优的网络形态发展且木质林产品贸易往来趋于平衡;RCEP成员国之间签署、生效和升级自由贸易协定会加强RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易关系;截至2018年,中国的木质林产品贸易地位已取代日本在RCEP木质林产品贸易网络中的核心位置,成为唯一的核心国家。因此,中国一方面要重视RCEP成员国的木质林产品市场,以此为契机促进更高水平的对外开放,推进全球贸易自由化;另一方面,中国木质林产品要依托质量、品牌、技术、管理创新等提高产品附加值,通过高质量发展来提高价值链分工地位,通过实施双循环战略实现国内国际双循环相互促进,提升国际竞争力,进而获取较高的贸易利得,确保中国木质林产品贸易的健康和可持续发展。