The impact of agricultural policy on farm income concentration: the case of regional implementation of the CAP direct payments in Italy

One of the objectives of agricultural policy worldwide concerns the support of farm income. Common Agricultural Policy direct payments (DPs) are the main instruments to support farm income in the European Union. This article addresses their role in the concentration of farm income. This is done by calculating the Gini coefficient and its disaggregation in a large sample of Italian farms in the period between 2006 and 2007. Although this approach has been used to develop ex‐post analysis in previous studies, this article is innovative given that it is used here in an ex ante analysis aimed at evaluating the likely impact of a recent reform proposal. This latter requests changing the current model to a regional model of DPs application to make payment rates (i.e., payment per hectare) homogeneous among farms in the same region. The analysis shows that DPs and farm incomes are both very concentrated but that DPs allow for an income concentration reduction in Italian farms. The shift to a regional implementation reduces DPs concentration and, to a limited extent, farm income concentration. Of the considered regionalization scenarios, those that redistribute DPs among regions are the most effective in reducing concentration. The extension of the Gini considered approach to an ex ante setting seems effective because it provides insights that could feed the policy debate regarding the forthcoming reform.     

The CAP for Turkey? Potential Market Effects and Budgetary Implications

EU accession negotiations with Turkey are scheduled to start in October 2005. The period of accession negotiations will probably last for ten years or longer, but the effects of applying the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to Turkey are currently a controversial discussion in the EU. Effects of Turkish accession on EU agricultural markets are likely to be small. The EU would gain additional export opportunities for cereals and animal products. On the other hand, Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are projected to increase for only a few fruit and vegetable products. EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total between £3.5 and £6.3 billion in 2015 – depending on whether direct payments are phased in or not – and £5.4 billion in 2025. Most of these outlays would be for direct payments to agricultural producers and that may not be in Turkey's best interest. This is because direct payments tend to be capitalized in land prices and may thus inhibit the necessary process of improving the Turkish agricultural structure. Transfers under the second pillar of the CAP may hold more interest for Turkey, because they can be targeted at improving productivity and thereby income. Projected outlays for the CAP take a backseat to projected transfers to Turkey under the structural policy of the EU.     

Setting Climate Action as the Priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: A Simulation Experiment

We quantitatively assess the impacts of re-allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive-based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology-adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG-reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget-neutral re-allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non-CO₂ emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual baseline. Two-thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission-saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget-neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.     

Effects of direct payments on rice income variability in Japan*

The effects of direct payments on rice income variability in Japan are analysed based on a balanced panel dataset of Japanese rice farms for 2012–2016. Firstly, the contribution of income components to rice income variability and the effects of a direct payment reduction are discussed by applying variance decomposition. Secondly, robust regression techniques are used to measure the correlation between direct payments and rice income variability. The originality of this paper is that it disaggregates the effects of payments using a regression analysis of the effects of direct payments on income variability for Japan. This contrasts with the existing literature on this topic, which has largely focused on European Union countries. This paper discusses to what degree the reduction in direct payments increases income variability. The results reveal that direct payments decrease Japanese rice income variability. Indeed, after controlling for various farm characteristics, we find a negative relationship between the amount of direct payments linked to rice production and rice income variability. Finally, the results suggest that reducing direct payments when the rice price is falling would increase rice income variability.     

The Effects of Direct Payments on Technical Efficiency of Irish Beef Farms: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

The 2003 Mid‐Term Review of the CAP sought to refocus the EU's farm support policy to foster a more competitive and market‐orientated agricultural sector. The foundation of this reform comprised the introduction of decoupled payments to farmers, replacing the EU's previous system of supports that were directly linked to production of designated crops and livestock. This paper explores the effect of coupled payments and their subsequent replacement by decoupled support, on the technical efficiency of specialist beef farms in Ireland. Given the high reliance of beef farmers in Ireland on CAP payments, the decoupling of payments has been especially important for the sector. A stochastic production frontier is estimated using a panel dataset comprising detailed accountancy data for Irish beef farms between the years 2000 and 2013. Our results indicate that technical efficiency in the beef farming sector has been consistently poor, with an average efficiency score of only 0.53 during the period analysed. However, we found that direct income received in the form of coupled payments had a positive impact on farm efficiency, and that this positive effect was maintained after their replacement with decoupled income support.     

Cap towards 2020 and the cost of political choices: The case of Emilia-romagna region

The paper assesses the different schemes of regionalisation and greening implementation according to both the preliminary proposals presented to the Trilogue and the CAP Reform adopted on 16 December 2013. The objective is to compare the different potential impacts on production (land use) and on the economic revenue of farm holders in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The assessment is performed by a regional positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and is carried out for single farms appearing in the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data. Sampling weights are used to make the simulation results consistent with the production structure of the region. The findings confirm a big weakening in what would have been the impact of the Commission’s proposal. In terms of lower gross margin incurred by farmers for fulfilling the greening requirements in the final CAP scenario, the model estimates a reduction corresponding to 20 €/ha. The greatest economic effects of the new CAP appear to be mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.     

The Role of the Common Agricultural Policy in Enhancing Farm Income: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Accounting for Farm Size in Italy

As a multi-objective policy, the EU Common Agricultural Policy continues to secure significant income support for farmers as one of the nine specific objectives. We estimate the income transfer efficiency of a broad set of pivotal policy measures, focusing on the effects of farm structure on income transfer efficiency. We use dynamic modelling, based on a micro-data panel of Italian farms for the period 2008–2014, allowing for endogeneity, simultaneity bias, and omitted variables. In line with previous studies and economic expectations, we find that decoupled direct payments provide the highest contribution to agricultural incomes, followed by agri-environmental payments and on-farm investment subsidies. Coupled payments have no significant impacts on farmers’ income. Generally, for all analysed Common Agricultural Policy measures, large farms benefit from greater transfer efficiency levels compared with medium and small farms. These differences among instruments and across farms suggest that policy-participation costs may play a pivotal role, together with the economic structure of farms, in determining the income transfer efficiency of CAP policies.     

Regional Economic Growth and Inequality in India during the Pre- and Post-reform Periods

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic performance of 15 major states in India, and examines whether initially disparate states displayed any tendency towards convergence in real per capita income during the period 1960/61–2006/07. Though the growth performance of the states has improved in the post-reform period, since 1991 the states have diverged in per capita income. The states following different steady-state paths are classified into three clubs—one convergent and two non-convergent. The regional divergence and club convergence are explained in terms of interstate variations in physical and social infrastructures, state-level policy reforms, foreign direct investment flows and economic structure. The poorly performing states could improve their relative economic position by undertaking investments in physical and social infrastructures, and speeding up the reform process by liberalizing investment and infrastructure policies. As industry and services are the major sources of regional divergence, any effort to reduce regional imbalance must focus primarily on these two sectors.     

Public support effect on natural disaster management: A case study of ice storms in forests in Slovenia

In the last decade Slovenia has experienced more frequent natural disasters in forests. The most severe and widespread one that affected Slovenian forests, which cover more than a half of Slovenian territory, was a large-scale ice storm in early February 2014. This study aims to investigate the effect of the public support on the recovery of forest farms affected by the 2014 ice storm. Analyses focus particularly on the ability of Slovenian forest farms’ income recovery in a short-time period. The economic resilience of forest farms in the absence of forest disaster payments due to the absence of legal certainty for disaster aid in 2014 and 2015 provides an interesting framework for identifying the income effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments. The Farm Accountancy Data Network has been used with applied statistical and regression methods to estimate the public support effect on selected woodland area size samples. Results suggest a positive effect of CAP payments on farm income recovery. The magnitude of the effect is high and significant for the less favoured area and disaster payments that were given for farm production loss in the 2013 drought. Although the magnitude of the effect is weak, investment payments show a significant positive effect on farm income recovery for all studied forest farm samples.     

Young farmers’ support under the Common Agricultural Policy and sustainability of rural regions: Evidence from Lithuania

The present study examines the influence of young farmers’ support system including both direct payments for young farmers and rural development measures initiatives under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the sustainability of rural regions. The intentions and decisions taken by young farmers in Lithuania are analysed within the rural sustainability concept. The empirical analysis relies on the questionnaire survey. In order to disentangle the possible effects of the CAP support on the farming sustainability (as it is perceived by the young farmers), we consider payments for farm establishment and expansion along with support for advisory services. The results show that young farmers’ support system under the CAP has the strongest perceived effect on income support in Lithuania without significant differences across different groups of farmers. The effect on investments is significantly lower for crop farms if opposed to the other farming types. Still, the results also indicate that environmental awareness of Lithuanian farmers is rather low as the demand for such advisory services appeared to be relatively low. The relatively high demand for advisory services on the business plan preparation suggests low levels of business administration and marketing skills among the young farmers, which indicates the need for development of the social dimension.     

Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure,Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results

The decoupling of direct payments from production represents a substantial reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to be entitled to support but only to keep land in Good Environmental and Agricultural Condition. If output declines as a result, there is concern that landscape services produced jointly with commodities will also decline. The aim of this paper is to assess the long‐term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions. Impacts are quantified using a spatial agent‐based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value. Our results demonstrate that eliminating the link between support payments and production has possible negative consequences for the landscape, but only under particular circumstances. It is shown that these effects could be offset by strengthening (Pillar II) agri‐environmental schemes. Further the single payment scheme results in higher land rental prices which reduces its ability to achieve its goal of providing income security for farmers. Implications of these results for the direction of continued CAP reform are discussed.     

The Distributional Impact of Direct Payments on Irish Farm Incomes

The objective of this paper is to analyse the distributional effects of the different income components of Irish farm income with a Gini comparison method and by disaggregating the overall Gini coefficient of income inequality by income source. Using individual farm data for 1992 and 1996, the impact on farm income distribution of the MacSharry CAP reform is assessed. In addition, the change in the Gini coefficient between these years is decomposed into the changes in the within‐source distribution of each income stream and the share of each income stream. The favourable movement in the Gini coefficient is found to be due to the introduction of direct payments, which target less well‐off farmers. Market income remains the single largest influence on deciding the income ranking of a farm while contributing less to total income than before.     

Is Passive Farming A Problem for Agriculture in the EU?

We address a new agricultural policy concern following the decoupling of CAP direct payments in 2005: passive farming, whereby landowners maintain their agricultural area to collect payments without producing commodities. It is claimed that passive farming is hindering agricultural development by ‘blocking’ access to farmland for expanding farmers. We evaluate the links between the EU's Single Payment Scheme (SPS), passive farming, land use and agricultural development. Following identification of the rational landowners’ optimal land‐use choice, we evaluate the effects of the SPS using a spatial, agent‐based model that simulates farmers’ competition for land in a case‐study region of Sweden. We show that passive farming does not constrain land from being used in production; on the contrary more land is used than would be the case without the SPS. We conclude that passive farming is not a problem for agriculture, but provides public goods that would otherwise be under provided: preservation of marginal farmland and future food security. However SPS payments on highly productive land inflate land values (capitalisation) and slow structural change, which hinder agricultural development. Consequently CAP goals could be better served by targeting payments on marginal land and phasing out payments to highly productive land.     

Subsidies and agricultural productivity in the EU

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and agricultural labor productivity growth by estimating a conditional convergence growth model. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 213 EU regions over the period 2004–2014) than have been used before. We find that, on average, EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies increase agricultural labor productivity growth, but this aggregate effect hides important heterogeneity of effects of different types of subsidies. The positive effect on productivity comes from decoupled subsidies, that is, Pillar I decoupled payments and some Pillar II payments. Coupled Pillar I subsidies have the opposite effect: they slow down productivity growth.     

Delivering on the Potential of the New CAP

Recent discussions on the CAP have focused on the budget. However, in the public debate the policy itself is often still a caricature of the old CAP that existed until the early 1990s. The CAP has changed fundamentally over the past decade. The recent direction of the CAP – markets and rural development – was set by the European Council in Göteborg and Lisbon. Strong economic performance must go hand in hand with the sustainable use of natural resources. The key elements of the new CAP are a market policy where intervention is a safety net, income stabilisation is delivered through decoupled aids subject to cross-compliance, and a reinforced rural development policy that focuses on jobs, growth and sustainability. We must use the new CAP to unlock the potential for growth, jobs and innovation and put good ideas into practice. We need to work in partnership with farmers, foresters, the agrifood business, NGOs, the population of rural areas, the research community and of course public authorities. But to achieve all of this we need a stable budgetary environment, in which farmers and businesses can plan. In short, we need the resources to deliver on the potential of the new CAP.     

The Impact of the 2013 CAP Reform on the Decoupled Payments’ Capitalisation into Land Values

We assess the effects of the 2013 CAP reform on the capitalisation of decoupled payments in land rental values. Our estimates suggest that the reform leads to an increase in the capitalisation of decoupled payments by an additional 18 cents for each Euro of decoupled payments relative to the pre‐reform situation. However, there is an important variation in the reform effects between Member States (MS) particularly between Old Member States (OMS) and New MS (NMS). In NMS, the capitalisation rate slightly reduces from 83% in the pre‐reform period to 79% in the post‐reform period. Although, the rate is significantly lower in OMS, it doubles (from 21% to 43%) due to the reform. The main sources of the post‐reform capitalisation in the European Union (EU) are the pre‐reform capitalisation accounting for 69% of the total post‐reform capitalisation, followed by the entitlement stock change with 19%, by the internal convergence of payments with 18%, the budget change (including external convergence) with 1%, and the differentiation of payments (redistributive payment) with ?7%. Overall, our estimates suggest that on average in the EU, the non‐farming landowners’ policy gains are 27% of the total decoupled payments in the post‐reform period compared to 18% in the pre‐reform period.     

Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study

We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): ( a ) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); ( b ) price uncertainty with CCPs; and ( c ) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.     

Efficient income redistribution for a small country using optimal combined instruments

In this paper I improve Gardner's surplus transformation curve framework by assuming that governments are able to vary many policy instruments simultaneously instead of only one. I use my framework to find the combination of the currently used instruments which provides the most efficient income redistribution for the Austrian bread grains market. Comparing the most efficient policy with the actual policy reveals that 464 × 10⁶ Austrian shillings were wasted. I theoretically compare for a small country the transfer efficiency of every possible pair of the four major agricultural policy instruments: floor price, (production) quota, co-responsibility levy, and deficiency payments. Without considering the marginal cost of public funds (MCF), deficiency payments cum quota (equal to a fully decoupled direct income support) is the most efficient policy, succeeded by floor price cum quota, and floor price cum deficiency payments. If the MCF is taken into account, the ranking crucially depends on the market parameters, the transfer level, and the value of the MCF. For the Austrian bread grains market, I empirically demonstrate that given the present support level, a fully decoupled direct income support redistributes income most efficiently as long as the MCF is lower than 1.17. Beyond this value a floor price cum quota policy becomes more efficient. A floor price cum deficiency payments policy is never superior to the floor price cum quota.     

Potential WTO Challenges to the CAP†

Since the early 1990s the EU's CAP has undergone considerable change with, first, a switch from market price support to direct payments in 1992 and, second, a further decoupling of support with the creation of the single payment scheme in 2003. Nonetheless, whether the current Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations is successfully completed or not, the CAP will come under renewed scrutiny, as a result either of negotiated reductions in support or of litigation through the WTO's dispute settlement process. This article discusses CAP market price and income support in the context of these likely WTO constraints. Depuis le début des années 1990, la PAC (Politique agricole commune) a subi des changements considérables dont le remplacement du soutien des prix du marché par des aides directes en 1992, suivi du découplage accru du soutien avec la mise en place du régime de paiement unique (RPU) en 2003. Toutefois, que les négociations commerciales actuelles du cycle de Doha de l'OMC se terminent avec succès ou non, la PAC fera l'objet d'un examen approfondi, que ce soit en raison des réductions négociées du soutien ou en raison des litiges portés devant le mécanisme de règlement des différents de l'OMC. Le présent article traite du soutien du revenu et des prix du marché dans le contexte de ces contraintes de l'OMC.