Geographical downscaling of outputs provided by an economic farm model calibrated at the regional level

There is a strong need for accurate and spatially referenced information regarding policy making and model linkage. This need has been expressed by land users, and policy and decision makers in order to estimate both spatially and locally the impacts of European policy (like the Common Agricultural Policy) and/or global changes on farm-groups. These entities are defined according to variables such as altitude, economic size and type of farming (referring to land uses). European farm-groups are provided through the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) as statistical information delivered at regional level. The aim of the study is to map locally farm-group probabilities within each region. The mapping of the farm-groups is done in two steps: (1) by mapping locally the co-variables associated to the farm-groups, i.e. altitude and land uses; (2) by using regional FADN data as a priori knowledge for transforming land uses and altitude information into farm-groups location probabilities within each region. The downscaling process focuses on the land use mapping since land use data are originally point information located every 18 km. Interpolation of land use data is done at 100 m by using co-variables like land cover, altitude, climate and soil data which are continuous layers usually provided at fine resolution. Once the farm-groups are mapped, European Policy and global changes scenarios are run through an agro-economic model for assessing environmental impacts locally.     

土地改革前浙江省的地权分配

研究目的：运用县志资料估算浙江省各县土地改革前的地权分配基尼系数,全景式地提供浙江省土地改革前的地权分配不平等情况。研究方法：历史文献、洛伦兹折线。研究结果：（1）浙江省的公田较多,公田的归类显著影响到基尼系数的大小,公田较多的县,将公田算作地主所有时的基尼系数,比不考虑公田时的基尼系数高了40%以上;（2）将公田归为地主所有时的土地所有权分配基尼系数在0.28～0.74之间,有5个县的基尼系数不超过0.40,土地分配相当平均。研究结论：土地改革前浙江省的地权不平等程度不高,但不同县的地权分配情况差异巨大。     

European farms’ participation in agri-environmental measures

Due to their diversity and voluntariness, agri-environmental measures (AEMs) are among the Common Agricultural Policy instruments that are most difficult to assess. We provide an EU-wide analysis of AEM adoption and farm’s total AEM support over total Utilised Agricultural Area using a Heckman sample selection approach and single farm data. Our analysis covers 22 Member States over the 2000–2009 period, assesses the entire portfolio of AEMs and focuses on the relationship between AEM participation and farming system. Results show that participation in AEMs is more likely in less intensive production systems, where, however, per committed hectare AEM premiums tend to be lower. Member States group into three categories: high/low intensity farming systems with low/high AEM enrollment rates, respectively, and large high diversity countries with medium AEM enrollment rates.     

资源环境基尼系数测算下的绿色贡献研究——以江苏省为例

以江苏省2009年13个城市废水的排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业烟尘排放量及能源消耗量作为评价指标,计算其资源环境基尼系数和绿色贡献系数.计算得出4个指标的资源环境基尼系数分别为0.66,0.16,0.14,3.1.废水的基尼系数超过了0.5的悬殊值,能源消耗量的基尼系数快接近于“警戒值”的范围,说明江苏省的废水排放以及能源消耗分配差异很大.二氧化硫排放量、工业烟尘的排放量的分配差异较平均.从绿色贡献系数来看,南京市区、常州市区、淮安市区、镇江市区、泰州市区是引起不公平性因子的主要原因.因此江苏省首先应重点控制资源环境基尼系数大的污染物排放,其次应在控制能源消耗上加大力度.与此同时应实施有差异的废弃物排放政策,促进区域资源环境的协调发展.     

Cap towards 2020 and the cost of political choices: The case of Emilia-romagna region

The paper assesses the different schemes of regionalisation and greening implementation according to both the preliminary proposals presented to the Trilogue and the CAP Reform adopted on 16 December 2013. The objective is to compare the different potential impacts on production (land use) and on the economic revenue of farm holders in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The assessment is performed by a regional positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and is carried out for single farms appearing in the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data. Sampling weights are used to make the simulation results consistent with the production structure of the region. The findings confirm a big weakening in what would have been the impact of the Commission’s proposal. In terms of lower gross margin incurred by farmers for fulfilling the greening requirements in the final CAP scenario, the model estimates a reduction corresponding to 20 €/ha. The greatest economic effects of the new CAP appear to be mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.     

Understanding the determinants of investment reactions to decoupling of the Common Agricultural Policy

The objective of this paper is to identify the determinants of the reactions of farm households to the decoupling of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) focusing, in particular, on changes in on-farm investment behaviour. The paper analyses a sample of 248 farm-households in 8 EU countries, using a non-parametric approach based on classification tree algorithms. The factors emerging as determinants of an increase in on-farm investment as a reaction to decoupling are: specialisation, existence of a successor, the farmer's age, labour management, SFP per hectare, location and expectations. When used, country variables, tend to substitute some of the factors listed above and become the main predictors, followed by labour endowment, specialisation and expectations. While the study confirms the relevance of the main determinants available from the literature, it also emphasises the articulation (non-linearities) of the effects of farm head age, labour management and SFP per hectare on the reactions to decoupling. This hints at the need for further research on the way such factors combine in determining farm-household reactions to a changing market and policy context, and support the usefulness of non-parametric statistics tools for such types of analysis.     

Analysing behavioural differences of farm households: An example of income diversification strategies based on European farm survey data

Different forms of income diversification represent important strategies of farmers to either cope with the changing economic framework conditions or to valorise given territorial potentialities. Nevertheless, the decision to diversify economic activities on or off the farm will heavily depend on the agricultural business and household characteristics. Our study used a survey of 2154 farms from eleven European regions to identify distinct farm types in order to investigate differences regarding the willingness to diversify in the future. Two scenario situations with continuation (baseline) and without any market intervention (“No CAP”) were tested. A factor and cluster analysis depicted six farm types both previously described and novel. The typology proved validity across all case studies, whereas single types occurred more frequently under specific site conditions. The six farm types showed strong variations in the stated future diversification behaviour. Young farm households with organic production are most likely to diversify activities particularly on-farm, whereas farm types characterised by intensive livestock holding and also already diversified and part-time farm households are least likely to apply this strategy. Results have further shown that under hypothetical conditions of termination of economic support by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) an increasing share of farmers – throughout all types – would apply income diversification, mainly off-farm diversification, as a survival strategy.     

Levelling the playing field for European Union agriculture: Does the Common Agricultural Policy impact homogeneously on farm productivity and efficiency?

Originally conceived as a post-war policy vehicle for ensuring agricultural self-sufficiency, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has evolved into a multifunctional instrument designed to satisfy a diverse portfolio of European Union (EU) policy objectives including nature protection. Notwithstanding, whilst the CAP has become more environmental and socially responsible, it is still expected to deliver an efficient farm production system capable of competing on world markets. The current paper combines a farm business panel dataset for 98 EU territories with a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach, to assess the impact of four contemporary broad categories of CAP subsidy programs on efficiency and environmental sustainability. In accordance with the literature, this study more correctly defines inputs as “facilitating”, whilst following recent methodological developments, crop-subsidies are treated as an endogenous strategic variable in the production function. Comparing between two discrete time periods, further tests are conducted to examine the hypothesis of technical efficiency convergence across european territories. The results suggest that first pillar crop subsidies and pillar two environmental programs generate a disincentive effect on productivity, whilst in general, the CAP promotes technical efficiency convergence within Europe.     

Potential impact of the EU 2003 CAP reform on land idling decisions of French landowners: Results from a survey of intentions

The 2003 reform of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) introduced Single Farm Payments (SFPs) which are decoupled payments conditional on cross-compliance, and allows these payments to be claimed for land kept fully idle but maintained in good agricultural and environmental conditions (GAEC). This paper focuses on the potential impact of the reform on land idling decisions in France with the help of a survey of the intentions of landowners. Both operator and non-operator landowners were considered since, although SFP entitlements are owned only by operator landowners in France, non-operator landowners may now have a higher incentive to switch to operating land by idling land and maintaining it under GAEC in order to claim SFPs. The key variables in landowners’ decisions to idle land in GAEC appear to be both monetary and non-monetary. Despite the likely difference in conversion and cross-compliance costs, operators and non-operators were shown to be equally uninterested in GAEC, suggesting that no dramatic changes in terms of idling land should occur in France as a result of the 2003 reform.     

Effects of redistributing policy support on farmers’ technical efficiency

The objective of this article is twofold: first, investigating the relationship between technical efficiency and decoupled direct payments of a sample of Italian farms prior to the application of the 2014–2020 Common Agricultural Policy reform; second, evaluating possible implications of alternative scenarios about distribution of direct payments on technical efficiency. To these aims, a stochastic frontier analysis is adopted. Results indicate that direct payments produce significant effects on technical efficiency in specialized farms, which received higher levels of support. However, effects are contrasting. Moreover, results show that redistribution of policy subsidies may negatively impact on technical efficiency to an extent depending upon the criterion of redistribution applied. Finally, some policy suggestions are given.     

清代前期地权分配的南北比较

本文计算清代前期休宁及遂安两县地权分配之吉尼系数，两者均远低于河北之获鹿数字，证明以往认为南方地权高度集中之看法不正确。     

Agricultural decline and sustainable development on mountain areas in Greece: Sustainability assessment of future scenarios

Agricultural decline may pose an important threat to mountain biodiversity but it also constitutes a driving force of socio-economic transformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the implications of alternative agricultural policy scenarios on the sustainable development of Greek mountain areas using a case study approach (Zagori region, Greece). Two agricultural policy scenarios were explored and assessed against a list of sustainability objectives. Causal relationships among drivers of changes and sustainability objectives were explored using Network Analysis. Our analysis has shown that agricultural liberalisation is expected to have devastating effects on the development of the area and it was strongly opposed as an alternative future by the local stakeholders. The analysis of the driver's causal relationship has also revealed that in order to ensure the sustainable development of the area it is necessary to sustain low input extensive farming, to promote mild tourism development and to enhance the operational efficiency of the National Park. Moreover, in order to reconcile agricultural decline, biodiversity and sustainable development, policy-management recommendations must be drawn at multiple administrative levels and complementary policy interventions within and between levels are required. It is thus, important that EU agricultural policies are complemented by national-regional interventions in order to regulate the fragile balance between agriculture and tourism. Finally, this study has shown that the combination of scenario analysis and sustainability assessment can provide an efficient tool to inform management strategies for sustainable development.     

基于基尼系数的农用地等别差异程度分析

该文利用基尼系数法定量分析了我国农用地等别差异程度,深化了对农用地分等成果的认识,结论表明我国耕地基尼系数为0.2523.除台湾以外的其他31省份的耕地基尼系数处于0.0002 ～0.3481之间.我国农用地等别差异程度较大,由低到高分为三级,则一级地区主要沿西南-东北方向分布,二级地区主要分布在东北、东南以及西部的西藏和四川,三级地区集中分布在我国中北部,包括青海、甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、河北6省.     

基于空间洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数的土地利用结构分析——以黑龙江省为例

将经济学中用于表示国民收入分配差距的洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数用到了土地利用结构分析中,利用黑龙江省2008年土地变更调查数据进行定量分析.分析得出:黑龙江省土地利用结构分布比较合理,地类分布符合地形、地貌特征;林地面积比重大;其次是耕地;园地面积最小.空间上,未利用土地、交通运输用地分布较为分散,其次是居民点及工矿用地、林地、耕地、水利设施用地,其他农用地、园地,其他土地离绝对均匀线远些,牧草地在全省分布极其不均匀.通过分析各类用地的集中和离散趋势,可为黑龙江省土地资源合理利用及结构调整提供科学依据.