Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis

This article introduces a new spatial price analysis methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture distribution model incorporating price, transfer cost, and trade flow data. This method permits differentiation between market integration and competitive market equilibrium and derivation of intuitive measures of intermarket tradability, competitive market equilibrium, perfect integration, segmented equilibrium, and segmented disequilibrium. One can also use these estimates to derive semiparametric measures of time-varying regime probabilities to track changing market conditions. An application to trade in soybean meal among Pacific Rim economies demonstrates the usefulness of the method.     

Market Power and World Price: The Role of Asian Rice Exporters

An attempt has been made in this study to assess the market power of major Asian exporters in world rice market using standard oligopoly models. Quantity has been used as the strategic variable based on previous literature. Structural and reduced form approaches have been used. Results indicate that the major Asian rice exporters like Thailand, China, and India face a downward sloping demand curve whereas the United States does not appear to possess market power. However, the results are inconclusive about the precise market structure. The results, in the backdrop of the history of world rice markets, indicate a need for Asian exporters to rely more on trade than on domestic stocks in order to reduce the thinness of world rice market.     

Forty Years of Price Transmission Research in the Food Industry: Insights,Challenges and Prospects: Comment

Lloyd's review of the literature on food price transmission in the Journal of Agricultural Economics (2017) is incomplete in that it omits discussion of technical change and international trade. The purpose of this Comment is to explain why these topics are essential for a proper understanding of price transmission. As a by‐product of the discussion, I show that the pass‐through and pass‐back equations that serve as the basis for Lloyd's theoretical insights are more general than one might think based on Gardner's (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1975) discussion of these equations.     

The role of temperature for seasonal market integration: a case study of poultry in Iran*

Understanding market integration has greatly benefited from analysing and comparing variations in price transmissions. An important source of variation in agricultural markets is seasonal changes in production, consumption and transaction costs. A key factor driving seasonality in agricultural price is temperature, as supply and demand changes are triggered by seasonal temperature differences. In this paper, we study the seasonal variations in vertical price transmission focusing on the asymmetric price adjustment to analyse changes in the market interactions between the stages of the value chain. Our data reveal significant transitory effects of temperature on the price transmission process. Results of a panel threshold model suggest that the farm–wholesale price adjustments to deviations from the market equilibrium are more symmetric at higher temperatures. However, we do not find an effect of temperature on the wholesale–retail price relationship. Our findings can be rationalised with wholesalers making use of their market power to extend their margins in the upstream chain. Wholesaler market power is lower during warm periods, and price adjustment is more symmetric. Concerning the Iranian poultry value chain, our findings imply that temperature-related differences in market interactions should be considered in formulating policy interventions.     

Rice Production,Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam

Analysing Vietnam's rice export policy and recent export ban in the context of rising food prices, this study combines insights from a regionally‐disaggregated or ‘bottom‐up’ CGE model and a micro‐simulation using household data. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, although there is little impact on GDP, there are substantial distributional impacts across regions and households from different export policies and market conditions. Second, both rural and urban households, including poor households, benefit from free trade, even though domestic rice prices are higher. Finally, under free trade, relatively large gains accrue to rural households, where poverty is most pervasive in Vietnam.     

Exploring Transition and Change in a Complex Traditional Market: The Case of the Rice Market in Bangladesh

This paper explores the unaddressed question of how the large, complex paddy‐rice market in Bangladesh is able to transform itself and evolve, in the face of changing risks and incentives, into a better‐functioning market system. It notes significant but opposing trends over two decades in different areas, particularly in terms of market structure, trade circuits and exchange relations. Evidence of a sharp decline in tied transactions points to the growing importance of impersonal exchange. The underlying causes of these changes are explored, with particular reference to microfinance, remittances, rural roads and mobile telephony.     

The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence

The increasing policy interest and academic debates on non‐tariff measures (NTMs) has stimulated a growing literature on how NTMs affect agri‐food trade. The empirical literature provides contrasting and heterogeneous evidence, with some studies supporting the ‘standards as catalysts’ view, and others favouring the ‘standards as barriers’ explanation. To the extent that NTMs can influence trade, understanding the prevailing effect, and the motivations behind one effect or the other, is a pressing issue. We review a large body of empirical evidence on the effect of NTMs on agri‐food trade and conduct a meta‐analysis to disentangle potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates. Our findings show the role played by the publication process and by study‐specific assumptions. Some characteristics of the studies are correlated with positive significant estimates, others covary with negative significant estimates. Overall, we found that the effects of NTMs vary across types of NTM, proxies used for NTMs, and levels of detail of studies. The estimated effects are also influenced by methodological issues and publication processes.     

Labour Market Adjustment and Intra‐Industry Trade: The Effects of Association on the Hungarian Food Industry

The structure of Hungary’s food trade expansion over the period 1995–2003 and its implications for labour market adjustment are examined. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, we test the sensitivity of results to the choice of measurement and their implications for the results. Second, we introduce more industry‐specific control variables. Third, we distinguish the short‐ and long‐run adjustment effects. Our results provide some support for the smooth‐adjustment hypothesis of intra‐industry trade. Estimations confirm that industry‐specific variables may have a significant effect on adjustment costs.     

The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

Recent analysis has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. A controversial element of this debate is the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding cropland conversion in the face of biofuels growth. We find that standard assumptions of yield response are unduly restrictive. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specifications as critical considerations for predicting global land use change. Sensitivity analysis reveals that each of these contributes importantly to parametric uncertainty.     

“限房价”、“限地价”和“竞配建”的调控机理及政策效果

研究目的：探讨新土地出让规则的调控机理,比较其调控效果、城际差异及背后原因。研究方法：比较静态分析和计量经济分析。研究结果：理论上“X+竞配建”类和最高限价类出让规则均能有效降低地价,但条件和成本不同;在样本城市中,前者降地价效果在统计上均显著,因“竞配建”能更有效地加大拿地成本、减少土地需求;后者效果不佳,其中“限房价、竞地价”均无效,因市场均衡价格的高度不可见性导致难以设定合理的最高限价。研究结论：“竞配建”规则调控效果佳、弹性高、成本低和正外部性强,宜作为常备调控工具推广使用;最高限价类规则实施的技术难度较高、刚性大且成本高,宜在极端市场条件下使用,且时间不易长。     

基于GWR模型的南京市住宅地价影响因素及其边际价格作用研究

研究目的：以南京市为例,探索城市住宅地价影响因素及其边际作用空间变化性及各因素边际作用大小空间分布状况,为城市土地科学管理提供帮助。研究方法：地理加权回归模型（GWR）。研究结果：（1）地铁站点、商业网点、水景观、绿地公园对住宅地均价的边际影响能力的空间变化性强,高等学校、医院等其他因素边际作用的空间变化性较弱;（2）容积率住宅地价边际增值能力高于其他因素,各因素在具体不同地块上边际作用能力高低不同。研究结论： GWR模型可以改进传统空间回归方法,可对城市地价影响因素边际价格作用空间变化性进行良好的估计;住宅土地价格对快速交通、商服条件及自然景观因素较为敏感,反映主城区人们对住宅便捷性及休憩性呈强偏好;容积率边际增值能力空间变化弱与土地的住宅性用途有关,但容积率始终是边际增值能力最高的因素; GIS良好的输出图像可视化技术能够指导相关部门调控具体地块的主要规划因素,促进城市土地科学管理。     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

Innovation and Trade with Endogenous Market Failure: The Case of Genetically Modified Products

A partial-equilibrium, two-country model is developed to analyze implications from the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the model, innovators hold proprietary rights, farmers are (competitive) adopters, some consumers deem GM food to be inferior in quality to traditional food, and the mere introduction of GM crops affects the costs of non-GM food (because of costly identity preservation). Among the results derived, it is shown that, although GM innovations have the potential to improve efficiency, some groups can be made worse off. Indeed, it is even possible that the costs induced by GM innovations outweigh the efficiency gains.     

浙江省林产品贸易现状及其国际竞争力提升途径

浙江既是经济大省又是资源小省,入世后国际市场国内化、国内市场国际化趋势日趋明显。如何有效利用国际国内两个市场、两种资源,扩大木质林产品进口缓减资源短缺压力,同时提高非木质林产品市场竞争能力扩大出口,是今后浙江林业发展的重要战略选择。本文通过对1997～2002年浙江主要林产品进出口情况进行分析,认为浙江林产品进出口贸易具有:⑴进出口规模小,但增长幅度快;⑵进口林产品以木质资源为主,具有较强的资源补缺作用;⑶出口林产品结构不断优化,附加值不断提高等特点。在分析林产品国际贸易环境新变化的基础上,提出了提升浙江省林产品国际竞争力的具体途径。     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

Profitability Development and Resource Reallocation: The Case of Sugar Beet Farming in Germany

Following the 2006 reform of the European Union sugar market, and in anticipation of the quota abolition, a reallocation of sugar production has occurred. Using a Lowe quantity index, we evaluate the productivity and profitability of sugar beet farming in Germany from 2004 to 2013. The results show that an increase in total factor productivity partly compensated for losses in terms of trade. Moreover, the contribution of production reallocation to sector productivity growth varied across regions with distinct ownership structures of sugar processing companies. These findings have implications for policy and industry, as it transitions to a liberalised market.     

The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market

The extent, pattern, and degree of integration are analyzed in a multivariate system with cointegrating restrictions. The extent of the market is found by identifying locations that are linked by trade and where prices share identical long run information (permanent component). The pattern of integration characterizes interdependence and is analyzed by estimating a vector error correction model. The degree of integration is calculated with persistence profiles of the long run relations. We demonstrate that bivariate models are inadequate for capturing the spatial dynamics of price adjustment. The methodology is applied to the Brazilian rice market and policy implications are discussed.     

Energy price reform and food markets: the case of bread supply chain in Iran

Reforming energy price is the core of Iranian economic reform plan during 2010–2014. However, increasing price of energy may have adverse effects on the agricultural and food markets. This study was conducted to address these problems in the most important food of Iranian people “bread” by developing a spatial supply chain model. Results show that consumers’ welfare would experience a sharp decrease though the impacts on farmers are trivial. Also, results indicate that the key to success the reform without political backlash in the short‐run is the cash transfer program under which the government redistributes part of the reform's benefits among consumers. Per capita compensation payments would be equal to 51.50 and 46.09 US$ per year for a typical rural and urban person, respectively. Moreover, the results provide more detailed information about the market characteristics and the payments both in nationwide and regional scale as well as in different income groups.     

杭州市住宅价格空间分异:基于特征价格的两维度分析

研究目的:从特征价格的视角,构建城市住宅价格空间分异的两维度分析框架,并对杭州市住宅市场进行实证研究。研究方法:文献资料法和计量分析法。研究结果:住宅特征对住宅价格影响程度的差异性以及住宅特征空间分布的不均匀性,导致了住宅价格的空间分异。研究结论:基于特征价格模型的分析框架是有效且合理的。