中国罗非鱼出口贸易影响因素分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

中国罗非鱼产业一直依靠国际市场来带动其发展,过分依赖于主要贸易伙伴国（地区）。论文选取2002—2012年中国向15个贸易伙伴国（地区）罗非鱼出口量的面板数据,利用引力模型分析中国罗非鱼出口贸易的影响因素,为改善罗非鱼的出口现状、保障罗非鱼产业的持续稳定发展提供政策建议。研究结果表明：需求方的各项经济因素对罗非鱼出口的影响是较大的,罗非鱼国内生产成本的上升制约了罗非鱼的出口贸易,世贸组织和亚太经合组织对促进罗非鱼出口贸易有一定作用。     

Strategic Agricultural Export Marketing in South Pacific Island Nations

Agribusiness firms in small developing countries face a special set of circumstances when formulating strategic marketing decisions. The nature of small economies usually means that agribusiness firms must have a strong export orientation, but they have little influence in the markets to which they export. The potential for domestic market expansion is limited. Information needed for developing export marketing strategies is often lacking, or difficult and expensive to obtain. An associated feature is the high degree of risk in export marketing, caused particularly by the variability in the world markets in which these nations sell their agricultural commodities. The importance of agricultural exports to economic development in these nations means that governments intervene a good deal in the export processes. Hence, government strategic decisions also affect agribusiness export performance. Finally, the number of competing firms is often small because of the smallness of the agricultural economy and the desire by agribusiness firms to avoid severe diseconomies of small size. This set of circumstances is examined in this paper in relation to a number of small South Pacific island nations (SPINS). Emphasis in the analysis of the strategic marketing concerns of agribusiness firms in these nations is on the competitive marketing strategies adopted in both the domestic and international sectors of the agricultural export markets. The special strategic marketing problems these firms face and the ways in which they have sought to overcome them are the main focus of study. But some attention is also given to the strategic decision-making processes of governments in the region, because they also have an impact on export strategies and performance of agribusiness marketing firms.     

Sources of EC horticultural import growth from developing countries

A decomposition analysis of horticultural trade flows is carried out to identify the main sources of change in EC horticultural imports from different LDC regions. Sources of change are associated with each region's international competitiveness, the relative openness of the EC market, the degree of trade preference enjoyed by the region, and the EC global import growth. The main contribution to the LDC export growth of fruit and vegetables to EC between 1975–79; and 1985–89 is found to be attributable to the global import growth effect. However, it has been significantly counteracted by the negative effect of a declining share of non-EC suppliers as a group. Marked interregional differences in changes in regional preferences show a lack of a strong correlation between LDC export performance and the existence of preferential trade agreements with EC. While the potential for LDC export growth to EC is clear, the results seem to indicate that in general EC protection policies have adversely affected import growth from LDCs. Various factors influencing LDC export performance in horticultural products are discussed. Apart from EC protection policies and changes in trade preferences, domestic supply factors are of significance in explaining export growth, including a liberal trading environment, but also specific policies to promote exports of horticultural products. While non-price competition weakens the discriminatory effect of preferential tariffs, there is a pressing need for developing countries to adapt to the demands of the European distribution system relating to quality, grades, and regularity of supplies.     

Successful Practices in California Wine Exporting

Abstract

California is one of the world's largest wine producers, yet it has exported only a small portion of its products. Many US wineries want to pursue opportunities in foreign markets but only a few are actually doing this successfully. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the successful practices of 12 California wineries that have achieved their financial targets and other export goals. A qualitative research design of in-depth interviews was employed. Results indicate that there are 5 major success factors, with the two most important being the foreign partner relationship and top management vision and commitment to exporting.     

Exploring the Attitudes of Bottled Wine Distributors Toward Wine Producers in the Portuguese Wine Sector

The wine sector has unique features that have not been deeply studied. This study aims to explore the attitudes of bottled wine distributors toward wine producers in the Portuguese wine sector. Eleven interviews (about 60 min each) were carried out with all major wine distributor managers. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using qualitative software. Content analysis shows that distributors develop six main attitudes toward producers: (a) Long-term Relationship, (b) Cooperation, (c) Interdependence, (d) Product Quality, (e) Trust, and (f) Brand Image. Findings may help managers of the wine sector and promote favorable relationships with the distributing customers.     

广东省农产品出口竞争力分析

分析表明,广东省农产品出口的显性比较优势指数呈缓慢下降趋势,国际市场占有率呈稳步上升趋势,贸易竞争指数曲折中呈下降趋势。总体来看,广东省农产品整体国际竞争力不强,竞争优势有待进一步发掘。文章提出了提升广东省农产品出口竞争力的相应措施,包括：创新模式,推进出口农产品质量安全基地建设;运用比较优势,调整产业结构,增强国际竞争力;挖掘、培育长效优势品种,创建农产品出口品牌;积极开拓出口市场,推进市场多元化。     

Rural Chile Transformed: Lights and Shadows

Rural society in Chile has undergone profound change over the past few decades. For centuries, large haciendas had dominated Chile's Central Valley. The agrarian reforms carried out by Frei and Allende – and to a greater extent the counter‐reform of Pinochet – transformed that property structure with its generalized system of agricultural production for the domestic market. Recently, there has been a marked shift in emphasis towards specialization, exports and off‐farm agricultural resources. A seasonal labour market has arisen, employing predominantly female workers, whose precarious work conditions stand in marked contrast to the success of Chilean agricultural exports. This paper reviews the main trends in Chilean agriculture and rural society, drawing on data gathered principally in Colchagua Province, which is known for its fine export wines.     

Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Determinants of Fish Export Performance in Oman

Abstract

The objective of this study was to identify the key variables affecting export performance at the firm level and draw the policy implications necessary to enhance Oman fish exports. The methodology adopted is inspired from the international marketing literature, which postulates that export performance is determined by both internal factors, under the control of the firm, and external factors. Empirically, the study used an econometric model and a firm survey data to investigate the link between export intensity, defined as the proportion of export sale to total sale and 4 sets of firm-level specific factors: (1) firm size and competencies, (2) management characteristics, (3) management perceptions and attitude, and (4) marketing strategy. Results show that both the age and firm size, measured by the number of years in business and the number of employees, had no significant effect on export performance. Managers' education level, previous work experience, commitment to exporting activities, diversification, and availability of information on foreign markets are all significant variables, positively affecting export performance. These results underscore a role of the private sector in upgrading their human and physical capital and the role of a government as a public good provider in securing information and providing financial incentives to reduce risk associated with diversifying export     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

世界海洋渔业贸易竞争力分析

进入21世纪,世界海洋渔业贸易迅猛发展。发达国家和发展中国家的海洋渔业的出口量和出口额都成线性增长。发达国家的主要海洋渔业进口国集中在美国、日本、德国,发展中国家的主要海洋渔业进口国集中在中国、尼日利亚。利用国际贸易理论中的国际市场占有率(IMS)、显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、比较优势指数法(CAI)、出口渗透率(ERP)四个指标,对世界海洋渔业出口竞争力进行分析后可发现,海洋渔业产业化、集聚优势和增强产业内贸易有利于提升世界海洋渔业竞争力。     

融入技术附加值的中国人造板产业国际竞争力测度

采用显示性技术附加值原理,融入技术附加值测度中国人造板产业的国际竞争力,并与传统进出口数据评价法的测度结果进行比较和分析。测度结果表明:中国人造板产业主要出口技术附加值低的产品,进口技术附加值高的产品;考虑技术附加值后,中国人造板竞争力并不强;融入技术附加值的产业国际竞争力更能反映新常态下中国人造板产业在国际市场上质的竞争力。     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

目的 文章基于动态的视角，测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化，对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。方法 基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据，测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数，对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述，并进行聚类分析。结果 （1）从出口动态整体情况看，农产品出口增长迅速，集约边际占据主导，贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看，在出口源地维度，东部省份出口优势明显，空间格局高度集中，近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度，东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地，集聚水平长期下降，原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时，中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似，绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀，东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。结论 为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长，既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长，也要积极扩展新贸易联系；为了优化农产品出口格局，要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新市场，进一步融入农产品出口进程；为了降低出口风险，要采取出口市场多元化战略，避免城市间农产品出口同质化竞争。     

中国木质家具出口贸易波动成因分析——基于CMS模型的国际比较

以加拿大、德国、意大利、马来西亚和美国5个国家作为对比国,利用1992～2006年的Comtrade数据,通过CMS模型比较分析了影响中国木制家具出口贸易变动的因素。结果表明:⑴影响中国木制家具出口贸易波动的因素主要来自际市场需求因素、出口的产品整体竞争力效应和出口商品结构变化3个方面;⑵中国木质家具国际竞争力处于稳步上升阶段,是6个木制家具出口国中增长最稳定的一个。     

中国水产品出口动力的三元边际分析

目的 通过分析2000年以来中国水产品出口增长的主要动力及其结构性变化,明确中国水产品出口的变化趋势,为相关部门调整政策、适应国际水产品市场的新变化提供依据。方法 基于2000—2020年联合国贸易数据库中的113万条大数据,文章采用三元边际分析方法对中国水产品的出口增长动力进行了多维度的分解分析。结果 基于中国水产品出口增长的主要动力的阶段性转换,可以将2000—2020年分为3个阶段。第一阶段是2000—2007年,中国水产品的出口增长的主要动力是出口数量增加,其中初级水产品在出口数量增加的同时出口价格也在提高,而加工水产品在出口数量增长的同时出口种类也在增加。第二阶段是2007—2015年,中国水产品出口增长的主要动力由出口数量增加转变为出口价格提高,初级水产品和加工水产品的主要动力都是出口价格提高。第三阶段是2015—2020年,这一时期中国水产品出口出现瓶颈,增长乏力。结论 中国水产品出口增长的主要动力在不同时期和不同品种之间存在结构性差异。中国应采取多种措施提升水产品出口竞争力：一是以提升水产品质量为主要抓手促进出口;二是加快发展加工水产业,不断延伸和拓宽水产品产业链;三是深入分析地区差异,更加重视对发展中国家的出口。     

Trends versus cycles in global wine export shares

The global wine market has witnessed major changes in recent years. Some of these changes are structural in nature or trend-following, whereas others are cyclical. Recently, new market entrants have increased their exports not only to traditional European markets but to other importing regions as well, whereas Old World producers have experienced declining market shares. However, the evidence examined here suggests that market share data also contain strong cyclical components. Mixed results also occur when the wine export data are disaggregated into products. This paper employs econometric methods to analyse the recent major shifts in world wine market shares and explains whether these are more of a secular trend-setting nature or of a temporary cyclical nature.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

Export Barriers in the Western Australian Horticulture Industry

This study was designed to identify perceived barriers to exports specific to Australian horticulture industry and the relative impact of these barriers on firms' export decisions. Specifically the study attempted to examine the differences, if any, in perceived export barriers by non-exporting and exporting firms. The analysis suggested seven major export barrier factors/variables. These barriers are somewhat different to barriers identified in recent studies suggesting that export barriers may be industry and country specific. The perceived seriousness of some of the barriers was significantly different for non-exporters and exporters. A discriminant analysis suggested, however, that it was not possible to predict whether a firm will be an exporter or not based on their perceptions of export barriers. The implications of the findings for the management of Australian horticulture exports are discussed.     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

THE SECTORAL INCIDENCE OF PROTECTION AND ZIMBABWEAN AGRICULTURE

This article applies the literature on ‘incidence analysis’ to the case of Zimbabwe, the main hypothesis being that industrial protection indirectly taxes agricultural exports by increasing the price of non-tradeables. The extent to which industrial protection increases the price of non-tradeables is measured by Sjaastad's incidence parameter. The study shows that there exists a generally high level of incidence and finds major differences in ‘true protection’ across categories of exportables and individual agricultural export commodities. The calculated price effects of industrial protection indicate substantial indirect disincentives to the production of agricultural exportables. On average, these are more than offset by direct subsidies in the case of beef. For other agricultural export commodities, indirect taxes either overcompensate direct subsidies or exacerbate the negative direct protection resulting in extremely high true taxation.