Marketing and Pricing Dynamics in the Presence of Structural Breaks: The Hungarian Pork Market

The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets has been a popular research topic of the past decades (see Meyer & Von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004 Meyer , J. , & Von Cramon-Taubadel , S. ( 2004 ). Asymmetric price transmission: A survey . Journal of Agricultural Economics , 55 ( 3 ), 581 – 611 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], for a recent survey). However, with a few exception these studies focused on developed economies. This article examines this phenomena on the Hungarian pork market. The Johansen (maximum likelihood, 1988 Johansen , S. ( 1988 ). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors . Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , 12 , 231 – 254 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Engle and Granger (2-step, 1987 Engle , R. F. , & Granger , C. W. J. ( 1987 ). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing . Econometrica , 55 , 251 – 276 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cointegration tests do not reject the no-cointegration null hypothesis between the Hungarian pork producer and retail price series. Therefore, we applied the Gregory and Hansen (1996 Gregory , A. W. , & Hansen , B. E. ( 1996 ). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts . Journal of Econometrics , 70 , 99 – 126 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) procedure with recursively estimated break points and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) statistics and found that the prices are cointegrated with a structural break occurring in April 1996 Gregory , A. W. , & Hansen , B. E. ( 1996 ). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts . Journal of Econometrics , 70 , 99 – 126 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality running from producer to retail prices both in the long and short run. Homogeneity tests are rejected, suggesting a markup pricing strategy. Price transmission modeling suggests that price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market is symmetric in the long run but asymmetric in the short run; that is, processors, wholesalers, or retailers might take temporary advantage should price changes occur.     

Drivers to Nurturance: Application and Extension of FWB in India

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the choice of healthier foods in India through observation of 250 consumers in a feast arranged with most of the millet-based food items, followed by a focus group study of nine selected consumers from the feast. Although much of the work about healthier food choices have been done in the western countries, their replication is not possible for the Indian consumers due to the differences in perception, culture, and consumption patterns. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of indigenous culture of a land in influencing one’s food choice. The findings of the qualitative study match with the Food as Well Being (FWB) dimensions proposed by Block et al., 2011 Block, L. G., Grier, S. A., Childers, T. L., Davis, B., Ebert, J. E., Kumanyika, S., … &; Pettigrew, S. (2011). From nutrients to nurturance: A conceptual introduction to food well-being. Journal of Public Policy &; Marketing, 30(1), 5–13.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Food perception emerged as another important factor from this study and furthermore an extended model of FWB is proposed for the Indian consumers.     

Identify Customer Involvement During Organic Food Purchase Through FCB Grid

The study measures the level of customer involvement related to Organic Food (OF) purchase through FCB Grid. A conceptual model was developed to identify the location of OF in FCB Grid by testing the sequencing of Knowledge, Attitude and Purchase Behavior effects. Two scales were adopted from a study by Ghosh et al. (2016 Ghosh, S., Datta, B., &; Barai, P. (2016). Modeling and promoting organic food purchase. Journal of Food Products Marketing, 22, 623–642. doi:10.1080/10454446.2016.1141138[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to measure Knowledge and Attitude pertaining to organic food. Similar such scale with minor moderation was formed for Purchase behavior. 868 responses were analyzed through Structural Equation Model, which indicates that OF falls on the first quadrant of FCB grid and is a high involvement product. This implies Knowledge drives Attitude and Attitude drives Purchase Behavior and demands informative strategy where economic considerations prevail prior to purchase. Organic food production is a sustainable process and positively impacts the livelihood of marginal farmers and will improve the quality of the soil and health of the consumers.     

Organic Consumption as a Change of Mind? Exploring Consumer Narratives Using a Structural Cognitive Approach

An innovative qualitative approach to analyze consumer narratives and biographies was applied to gain insight into consumer decision making and dynamic behavioral patterns in the purchase of organic foods. We adapted Gardner's (2004 Gardner , H. ( 2004 ). Changing minds: The art and science of changing our own and other people's minds. Cambridge , MA : Harvard Business School Press . [Google Scholar]) change-of-mind framework to organic food consumption. Regular consumers trust organic products because they believe that they are healthier and tastier than the equivalent nonorganic product. This belief is built upon day after day by their experiences and by word of mouth: a growing stock of information supports their food choice and confidence in organic food. Occasional consumers have strong beliefs about the better taste and the higher quality of organic food in general. The choice to (regularly) buy organic food is a matter of largely unnoticed inner development. The results allow us to draw some conclusions relating to the determinants of the future demand for organic food in Italy.     

The effects of Mongolia's booming mining industry on its agricultural sector: A test for Dutch disease

Dutch disease occurs when currency strengthening associated with a booming sector of an economy crowds out a lagging trade‐dependent sector. In this study, a Keynesian‐style model is specified to deduce hypotheses about how increased foreign direct investment (FDI) aimed at Mongolia's mining sector affects its agricultural sector. A key finding is that while econometric results suggest the increased FDI strengthened Mongolia's currency, its adverse effect on Mongolia's trade‐sensitive agricultural sector is not sufficiently strong to cause the sector to decline. Although Dutch disease was not detected, the posited mechanism clearly is important. Specifically, when currency strengthening is ignored the reduced‐form elasticity of agricultural value‐added with respect to FDI is 2.7 times larger than when currency strengthening is taken into account (0.103 vs. 0.038). Also, FDI‐induced currency strengthening causes the Keynesian multiplier to drop from 2.40 to 2.00 and the FDI multiplier to drop from 3.05 to 1.89.     

Smallholders download and share videos from the Internet to learn about sustainable agriculture

Of 1,211 farmers and their representatives registered on www.accessagriculture.org, 142 participated in an on-line survey in November 2017, designed to learn farmer’s opinions of Access Agriculture, an NGO which hosts a digital platform where anyone can watch or download videos and other information for free. These farmer learning videos all convey practical information on sustainable agricultural innovations, to encourage farmer experiments. Previous experience showed that smallholders liked having their own copy of videos (e.g. on DVD), but this study showed that farmers are now starting to find their own way to the internet to pro-actively search for information. Although some farmers learn about on-line videos by social contacts, most of the farmers found the videos on www.accessagriculture.org by surfing the web. This suggests that limitations of reaching farmers with traditional forms of video distribution (e.g. DVDs and village screenings) will be partly overcome by the Internet. Youth have become the new information brokers for communities, as elders may lack the digital technology skills needed to use the Internet to get agricultural information. To share videos with other community members, youth will benefit from additional tools, such as an app, to allow easy download and sharing with limited data consumption.     

Push—pull technology: a conservation agriculture approach for integrated management of insect pests,weeds and soil health in Africa

Push—pull technology (www.push-pull.net) is based on a novel cropping system developed by the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Rothamsted Research (UK) and national partners for integrated pest, weed and soil management in cereal—livestock farming systems. Stemborers are attracted to Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum), a trap plant (pull), and are repelled from the main cereal crop using a repellent legume intercrop (push), desmodium (Desmodium spp.). Desmodium root exudates effectively control the parasitic striga weed by causing abortive germination. Desmodium also improves soil fertility through nitrogen fixation, natural mulching, improved biomass and control of erosion. Both companion plants provide high value animal fodder, facilitating milk production and diversifying farmers' income sources. The technology is appropriate to smallholder mixed cropping systems in Africa. It effectively addresses major production constraints, increases maize yields from below 1 to 3.5t/ha, and is economical as it is based on locally available plants, not expensive external inputs. Adopted by over 30,000 farmers to date in East Africa, key factors in its further up-scaling include effective technology dissemination, adaptability of companion plants for climate resilience, capacity building and multi-stakeholder collaboration, integration with livestock husbandry, improvement in input accessibility and creation of a supportive policy framework.     

基于地理探测器的内蒙古耕地水资源短缺时空变化特征及驱动力分析

[目的]明晰干旱半干旱区耕地水资源短缺的时空变化特征及驱动因素，是实现区域水资源可持续利用的首要前提，对保障区域乃至全国粮食安全和生态健康有着重要意义。[方法]文章以内蒙古为典型研究区，以水足迹理论为依据，通过构建耕地水资源短缺指数（Arable Land Water Scarcity Index,AWSI），分析2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数时空格局及变化特征，并进一步借助地理探测器模型定量揭示研究区内气候、植被、地形、人口密度等11个自然和社会经济因素对耕地水资源短缺时空变化的影响差异。[结果]（1）内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数总体呈西高东低的分布特征，西部耕地缺水压力较大。2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数呈增加趋势，增加区域占总面积82%以上，主要分布在东部和中部地区。（2）自然因素主要决定内蒙古耕地水资源短缺的空间格局，其影响明显大于社会经济因素，但是2000—2018年社会经济因素的影响力在呈增大趋势。（3）自然因素中以蒸发量、年均温、降水量为主的气候因子在生态探测中共有19组显著差异，占据了影响因子中的主导地位。而在社会经济因素与自然因素的交互作用下，...     

Analysing inefficiency in a non-parametric spatial-dynamic by-production framework: A k-nearest neighbour proposal

This paper accounts for spatial effects by benchmarking farms against their k-nearest neighbours (KNN) and measuring their inefficiency in a non-parametric dynamic by-production setting. The optimal number of neighbours $k$ against which farms are compared corresponds to the value of $k$ that maximises the Moran I test for spatial autocorrelation of the good and the bad output of the farms' two sub-technologies. The inefficiency scores for farms' good output, variable inputs, investments and bad outputs are then computed and compared with those calculated based on a global technology, which benchmarks all farms together. The application focuses on an unbalanced panel of specialised Dutch dairy farms over the period 2009–2016 that contains information on their exact geographical locations. The results suggest that the inefficiency scores exhibit statistically significant differences between the KNN and the global model. Specifically, the inefficiencies are generally deflated when a KNN technology is considered, suggesting that ignoring spatial effects can overestimate inefficiency.     

Land change in the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado), 1986–2002: Comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy

The Brazilian Cerrado, a biodiverse savanna ecoregion covering 1.8 million km² south and east of the Amazon rainforest, is in rapid decline because of the expansion of modern agriculture. Previous studies of Cerrado land-use and land-cover (LULC) change imply spatial homogeneity, report widely varying rates of land conversion, use ambiguous LULC categories, and generally do not attempt to validate results. This study addresses this gap in the literature by analyzing moderate-resolution, multi-spectral satellite remote sensing data from 1986 to 2002 in two regions with identical underlying drivers. Unsupervised classification by the ISODATA algorithm indicates that Cerrado was converted to agro-pastoral land covers in 31% (3646 km²) of the study region in western Bahia and 24% (3011 km²) of the eastern Mato Grosso study region, while nearly 40% (4688 km² and 5217 km², respectively) of each study region remained unchanged. Although aggregate land change is similar, large and contiguous fragments persist in western Bahia, while smaller fragments remain in eastern Mato Grosso. These findings are considered in the current context of Cerrado land-use policy, which is dominated by the conservation set-aside and command-control policy models. The spatial characteristics of Cerrado remnants create considerable obstacles to implement the models; an alternative approach, informed by countryside biogeography, may encourage collaboration between state officials and farmer-landowners toward conservation land-use policies.     

An empirical Coasian study on the socio-economic profiles of two politically sensitive informal settlements: Kowloon Walled City and Rennie’s Mill

Informed by the “corollary of Coase Theorem” (Lai and Hung, 2008; Lai et al., 2007), for a better understanding of the self-help post-war development of two politically sensitive and vanished places in Hong Kong, the so-called “Kowloon Walled City” (Lai, 2016; Lai and Chua, 2017; Lau et al., 2018) and Rennie’s Mill (Lan, 2006), which have attracted academic interest but remained under-researched in terms of empirical scrutiny, this study:

• •Identify and compare their institutional arrangements by archival research;
• •identify and compare their development outcomes, as measured by census and other official data including mapping and photographic information, supplemented by published oral history of witnesses; and
• •establish and discuss the relationship between the differences in institutional arrangements and development outcomes in terms of a landlord-tenant analogy.

     

Comparative Advantage Indices of Selected Livestock Production Sectors in Brunei Darussalam

Abstract

This study calculates the protection rates and comparative advantage indices of livestock industry in Brunei from an import substitution perspective. Four livestock sub-sectors were being evaluated: broiler, layer, goat and beef cattle. Two measures of government intervention indices were calculated, namely nominal protection rate (NPR) and effective protection rate (EPR). Domestic resource cost (DRC) and resource cost ratio (RCR) indices were computed to determine the comparative advantages of the livestock industry. In general, the results indicate that the livestock industry in Brunei was heavily protected. The study revealed the existence of comparative advantage only for very large farms producing poultry meat and eggs. Similarly in the ruminant sector, goat production appears to have comparative advantage over beef cattle. Small and medium poultry farms and large non-ruminant farms and cattle beef production possess comparative disadvantage despite being highly protected industries.     

Spatial–temporal changes in grain input–output and the driving mechanism in China since 1985

Based on Chinese county-level statistic data, this paper reveals spatial–temporal distribution and changing of grain production, by studying gravity centres of grain input–output regions in China from 1985 to 2009. According to the grain output, per-capita grain consumption, and population, the surplus grain of 2864 counties from 1985 to 2009 was calculated. And the counties with surplus grain value greater than zero and smaller than zero were respectively defined as grain input regions and grain output regions; they were respectively analysed by using the model of grain gravity centre. We found that there are four periods of spatial–temporal changing of gravity centres in grain input regions, and five periods in all output regions. According to the moving path of the gravity centres of input–output regions, 1990 was the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’. Spatial–temporal changing of grain-sown area and the arable land was the main driving mechanism for the shift in grain input–output gravity centres. The change of spatial pattern of grain production influenced sustainability of grain production from three impacts. And two policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainability of grain production.

HIGHLIGHTS

Use the method of gravity centres to research the spatial–temporal changing of surplus grain from 1985 to 2009 in China.

Analyse the spatial–temporal changing and the driving mechanism of gravity centres of grain input–output from 1985 to 2009 in China.

1990 was identified as the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’.

Summarize the impact of the changes of spatial pattern of grain production on the sustainability of grain production and put forward two proposals.     

THE RURAL POOR AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITY IN THE DRY ZONES OF SOUTHERN ASIA

In contributing to the appraisal and evalution of technological innovation, agricultural economists have a major but changing role to play. Whereas hitherto the concern has been chiefly to compare sharply different exogenous and indigenous technologies, the challenge now is to assess technological change of either or both these kinds

• ? in ecologically sensitive and relatively unproductive areas
• ? when the bulk of the people are poor and survival is the most common preoccupation
• ? where innovations could impinge at many points in household life-systems but are, singly, likely to have only small impact
• ? where the institutional structure will be crucial to their acceptance and might itself have to change.

     

A scale invariant model for the expansion of agricultural land and government spending on the agricultural sector

The expansion dynamics of the agricultural surface is a complex process, since it requires decisions among different actors under a multitude of socioeconomic and natural conditions, expectations, and risks. This paper shows that despite this complexity, and at odds with the intuition, the density of agricultural lands and the government spending to foster agriculture around a human settlement displays a simple power-law relationship regarding the distance to such a settlement. The theoretical proof of this relationship is based on theoretical and empirical findings made by several authors on the expansion of population centers, river networks, species and ecosystem’s distribution. The empirical proof is made by fitting a simple power-law model having as response variables: density of agricultural land; government spending coverage, and government spending per unit of agricultural surface, while the distance to the centroid settlement is used as independent variable. Results show that the scaling exponents of the power-law relationship estimated from those models, with data from rural settlements in Mexico, are similar statistically to the expected values from theoretical models for the three expansion processes tested. Three applications of the scale-invariant attribute characterizing the expansion process of agricultural lands are presented:

• i)monitoring agricultural activities at the territories;
• ii)a proxy to estimate the expected growth of the agricultural surface; and
• iii)a typology to characterize government assistance at local level.

     

UK Land Use Futures: Policy influence and challenges for the coming decades

This paper, originally contributed as part of the government's Foresight investigation of Land Use Futures, considers the likely shape of policies affecting UK rural land use up to 2060, based on literature review, analysis of past and current trends and drivers, and discussion with selected policy experts. The postwar, centralised approach to spatial planning and countryside management has come under increasing challenge from domestic and international needs and concerns. European policy influence has increased in respect of agriculture and the natural environment. Zoning of land-use and a restrictive approach to built development have gradually weakened, and land-use drivers have become more multifunctional. Policy has moved away from a ‘top-down’ process designed in Whitehall towards a multi-layered structure within which international agreements and negotiations must be reconciled with regional and local, partnership-based approaches to planning and management, via national frameworks and a complex mix of regulatory and market-based instruments. Climate and energy policy, as well as policies on food and health, will require new and more diverse forms of development. A major challenge for the future could be the extent to which current, multi-layered spatial planning policies can accommodate the scale of change implied by the new mix of drivers from other policy areas. There is the possibility of an increasingly differentiated response across the UK countryside, as well as much more radical change in the system driven from the centre, as pressures increase.

While the Government Office for Science commissioned this review, the views are those of the author, are independent of Government, and do not constitute Government policy.     

LESSONS FROM SWEDISH FARM STRUCTURE POLICY*

This article considers two basic questions:-

• 1 How successful have Swedish structural policies been?
• 2 What light does this shed on the structural policies now The argument is developed in five stages. First the development of structural policies recently operating in Sweden is reviewed and those being introduced in this country are described.

Second, the extent to which structural change can be measured from aggregate data is discussed in general terms and the available data on structural trends in Sweden and the U.K. is reviewed. Thirdly, other forces which affect structural development in Sweden are discussed. Fourth, conclusions as to the past effect of policies on structural change in Sweden are summarised. Finally, some possible results of U.K. structural policies are indicated.     

Why do medium- and large-scale farmers succeed practicing CA and small-scale farmers often do not? – experiences from Paraguay

Conservation agriculture (CA) is defined as a system comprising no or minimum mechanical soil disturbance, permanent organic soil cover, and crop species diversification [FAO. (2014). What is Conservation Agriculture? FAO CA website, consulted on 15.09.2014. Retrieved September 15, 2014, from http://www.fao.org/ag/ca/1a.html]. The vast majority of medium- and large-scale farmers in Paraguay and neighbouring countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay) who use tractor-based farming systems have moved from conventional agriculture and adopted CA through no-tillage technologies. Among this farmer type, very few wish to return to the old system of tillage agriculture. However, despite massive efforts to transmit the technology to small-scale farmers by development aid projects and local governments, widespread adoption of CA has not happened on farms that use animal traction or manual farming systems; in fact significant dis-adoption of CA practices by smallholders has occurred. Some of the reasons for this dynamic are analysed in this paper. The reasons for dis-adoption by small-scale farmers can be generally divided into two groups. One group has to do with the fact that, comparatively, small-scale farmers are less able to cope with the factors related to CA (e.g. degraded soils, recuperating and maintaining soil fertility and know-how) than medium- and large-scale farmers. The second group of reasons has to do with the approaches and strategies that development aid agencies and local governments have taken towards small-scale farmers, which have influenced small-scale farmers’ ability to adopt and maintain CA practices. Small-scale farmers’ main asset is the soil and the CA/no-tillage system is a knowledge-based, learning-intensive system. However, despite the technical support provided by aid agencies and local governments, small-scale farmers often lack a deeper understanding of the CA concepts and practices. This is attributable to the short- to medium-term and rather conservative transfer-of-technology approaches that have been applied by development aid agency and local government programmes over the years, without any changes and without adaptive research. The latter can be derived, for instance, from the accountability of results to donor agencies or the one-size-fits-all approach applied in order to achieve ‘numbers’. One consequence of this is that ownership by and empowerment of farmers is often absent among dis-adopters. It therefore seems more suitable to apply long term, adaptable approaches to CA with smallholders. The lessons learned in Paraguay may well serve to properly direct future development intervention efforts in this country and also serve to mend development strategies in other countries in South and Central America, Africa or Asia.