2008年全球经济预测和中期展望北大核心CSSCISSCI

世界大型企业联合会（The Conference Board）是一个全球性的经济研究和企业会员组织．作为这个组织的总裁和首席经济学家,我将全球经济看作一个整体,在这幅纷繁复杂的经济图景中．中国正扮演着越来越重要的角色。我看到全球的经济增长在过去7年中一直非常强劲,但正在开始放缓。虽然目前全球金融市场关注的是美国经济增长的放缓,但我们觉得衰退的风险正在全球范围内上升,这是因为世界经济的动态变化往往使发达国家和新兴经济体先后出现同样的情况。当我们环顾世界,就可以看到在美国发生的情形．有些已经在其他国家非常迅猛地出现,房地产市场的收缩就是其中一例。     

当前国际会计趋同形势和我国企业会计准则国际趋同的策略选择

PREFACE/前言随着世界经济一体化程度日益加深,国际财务报告准则在全球范围的应用越来越广泛。尤其是在2008年国际金融危机爆发后,为制定一套全球高质量的会计准则,提高会计信息透明度,稳定全球金融体系和资本市场,全球会计准则趋同步伐进一步加快,各国或地区采取的会计准则国际趋同策略倍受国际社会广泛关注。在当前国际金融监管框架正在重新构建,国际会计格局正在发生重大调整国际会计准则制定机构正在积极推动治理结构改革的新形势下我国需要审时度势,顺势而为,选择适应国情需要的会计准则国际趋同策略。     

当前国际会计趋同形势和我国企业会计准则国际趋同的策略选择

随着世界经济一体化程度日益加深,国际财务报告准则在全球范围的应用越来越广泛。尤其是在2008年国际金融危机爆发后,为制定一套全球高质量的会计准则,提高会计信息透明度,稳定全球金融体系和资本市场,全球会计准则趋同步伐进一步加快,各国或地区采取的会计准则国际趋同策略倍受国际社会广泛关注。在当前国际金融监管框架正在重新构建,国际会计格局正在发生重大调整,国际会计准则制定机构正在积极推动治理结构改革的新形势下,我国需要审时度势,顺势而为,选择适应国情需要的会计准则国际趋同策略。     

财富管理的机遇与风险

中国正在从全球的制造大国转变成全球的消费大国、资本大国,并拥有一个增长迅速的财富市场。很多机构预测,中国201 5年将会成为全球第二大消费国。中国证券交易所融资额过去两年都是全球第一。今年第一季度,中国IPO融资总额相当于全球同期的58%。中国向全球资本市场供应企业的能力,过去两年也都是全球     

未来全球经济十大趋势预测与展望

2008年爆发的国际金融危机已经过去6年多时间,全球经济正在步入曲折性与脆弱性并举的复苏轨道。从未来5~10年甚至更长时期趋势来看,全球经济不确定性和复杂性日益上升,将出现诸多新的结构性变化和革命性变化,因此需要我们对未来可能影响全球经济的十大趋势做出预测和判断。趋势一:全球经济仍难完全走出危机阴影,已由国际金融危机前的快     

当前金融危机对新兴经济体开放的启示

当前全球金融危机的影响逐步扩散,全球金融体系和实体经济正在经历痛苦而规模庞大的去杠杆化过程,几乎没有一个国家或地区可以独善其身,完全摆脱这次全球金融危机的阴影。一、这次金融危机的鲜明特点"二战"以来,全球范围内共发生了五次世界性的经济危机,包括:1957～1958年的世界经济危机,1973～1975年     

2014年国际金融形势分析与2015年展望

当前,全球经济进入"大分化"的"新常态",全球经济的不平衡性复苏也加剧了全球货币政策周期,全球股市、债市、汇市以及货币格局的分化。全球金融市场和金融格局在动荡中加速变化,随着2014年美联储启动QE退出程序,美国量化宽松政策作为全球影响最为广泛的货币政策正在转向,从而步入"后QE时代",而这也标志着2015年乃至未来几年时间里,全球将不可避免地要迎接新的金融结构和金融大周期调整。     

中国经济增长放缓的全球效应分析

中国经济自身的增长动能正在减弱,若无财政和货币政策的有效刺激,今年全年的增长率将持续第二年低于8.0%。由于中国是世界第二大经济体,是全球最主要的贸易国之一,其增长放缓肯定具有全球性效应。对全球经济增长的影响要度量中国经济对全球经济的拉动力或贡献率,需要两个变量:它占全球经济的比重以及它本身的增长速度。2012年中国经济总量占全球经     

中国装备制造业在变革中崛起

过去一年是中国机械工业被高度认同的一个起点。行业收入和利润都出现了持续快速的增长;全球竞争力与优势显现,正在成为全球装备制造业转移的新基地。     

新的全球金融危机正在逼近

4月3日,国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示,新冠病毒肺炎疫情大流行酿成了一场全球金融危机,其规模是史无前例的。这次疫情对全球经济造成的损害,比2008年至2009年发生的全球金融危机更为严重。也就是说,格奥尔基耶娃看来,一场比2008年金融海啸更严重的金融危机正在爆发。     

我国出口企业反倾销应诉的误区

随着世界各国逐步取消贸易壁垒,国际反倾销案件数量剧增。而中国成为世界反倾销最大的受害国。这既有我国出口商品具有明显的比较优势、企业缺乏市场自律等内因,也有国际贸易保护主义和歧视中国的非市场经济国家待遇等外因。而我国企业在反倾销应诉中存在的误区成为应诉取胜的障碍。认识误区,则能增加胜算的机会。     

反倾销应诉中的会计问题探讨

中国已成为世界上第三大贸易国,是遭受反倾销调查案件最多的国家;同时,由于受市场经济地位歧视的影响,中国被裁定的反倾销税率也是世界最高的,由此造成的损失非常巨大.反倾销已成为中国企业和中国会计界必须面对的话题.因此,从新会计准则实施(2007年1月1日在中国上市公司率先采用)的视角审视反倾销,研究我国企业反倾销应诉中的会计权益问题,具有重要的理论与现实意义.     

Globalisierung,Versicherung und Welthandelsrecht (WTO)

The article identifies the technological progress in respect of the transport of goods (?container revolution“), passengers (wide body aircraft) and data (world wide web) as the true basis of the present and irreversible development which is usually referred to as globalization. Its effect on insurance is discussed in relation to the capital markets and to the insurance markets. With regard to the latter the main effect of globalisation is the progressive unboundedness of risks which is correlated to the globalization of social and economic developments. The unboundedness of risks would require a world wide extension of insurance business which is, however, in many cases impeded by legal barriers delimiting insurance markets. The deregulation of these barriers has been triggered by GATS, but the process of liberalisation of insurance markets is far from being accomplished.     

坚持风险为本,实现县域金融可持续发展的思考

本文在论述县域金融拥有广阔的发展天地,但县域金融基层网点也存在大案频发的情况下,相应对县域金融如何坚持风险为本、严格风险防范和管理提出了十一条具体建议。     

Should investors include green bonds in their portfolios? Evidence for the USA and Europe

The green bond market has seen a rapid growth world widely in recent years. This paper explores the role of green bonds in asset allocation using the dynamic R-vine copula-based mean-CVaR approach. We compare the performance of portfolios including green bonds with that of portfolios including conventional bonds in the U.S. and European markets. Empirical results show that portfolios with green bonds outperform portfolios with conventional bonds in terms of risk-adjusted returns in the majority of cases in both markets. The benefit of green bonds comes from both the increase in the return and the decrease in the volatility for most of the cases. Overall, our findings suggest that green bonds are beneficial to investors.     

Exposure to the world and trading-bloc risks: A multivariate capital asset pricing model

This paper employs a capital asset pricing model that incorporates both world and trading-bloc factors to show that the recent trend of trade regionalism has led to segmentation of world stock markets. The model is developed within a multivariate GARCH framework. The conditional time-varying betas are derived to examine the dynamics of risk exposures to the world and trading-bloc factors. The results show risk exposure behaviour that is not revealed using static risk estimates.     

What is an Investment Project's Implied Rate of Return?

How to measure a project's implied rate of return has long been an unresolved problem, except for some special cases. This paper derives return on present cost (ROPC) as the correct measure of an investment project's implied rate of return. The IRR is a biased measure except for projects classified as simple projects, and this bias is likely to be substantial in many real‐world applications. Thus while net present values should be used to determine whether to accept/reject projects, I recommend that analysts use ROPC in place of the IRR as a measure of a project's true rate of return.     

The world food crisis

With 2,400 million people on the wrong side of the ‘hunger gap’, of which at least 1,000 million suffer from overt hunger, public education is required into the nature of the world's food crisis. It is insufficient to grow more food in general; it has to be the right kind to satisfy nutritional needs. While animal protein consumption per capita in the satisfied world has increased from 36 to 44 grams per day, that in the developing world has declined from 11 to 8. This is partly because the 450 million people that comprise the well-fed world have to a large extent become parasitic on the hungry world.     

Has the new world order taught the big four to manage client portfolio risk? Examining extreme loss occurrences before and after Sarbanes Oxley

This paper analyzes ongoing efforts by the large public accounting firms to manage their legal liability. For this purpose, the paper focuses on extreme financial losses from the audits of U.S. publicly traded clients incurred by Big Four firms. The possibility that this form of legal liability has changed as a result of the new world order brought to the accounting profession by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) is the paper's main premise. This paper finds a major decline in the severity of these cases. However, the results show that firms have not necessarily improved the management of this risk. The drivers of extreme legal liability continue to be client continuance decisions and larger clients.     

OPEC in world financial markets: Oil prices and interest rates

This article examines the relationship between the real rate of interest in world financial markets and the price of oil. If OPEC cannot be viewed as a ‘small’ participant in world financial markets, and should its savings and portfolio behavior differ from that of the rest of the world, then wealth shifts to or from OPEC would affect world interest rates. Subsequently, this paper examines the magnitude of oil price changes required to elicit a significant interest rate change. Our empirical results shed light on OPEC's behavior, which at times may differ from a pure profit maximizing cartel. The short-run price elasticity of the world demand for oil is -0.04 and the long-run elasticity is -0.10. OPEC itself, as expected, faces higher elasticities of -0.08 and -0.36, respectively. The demand elasticity of oil with respect to ‘world’ GNP is 0.8. A major objective of this paper has been to determine the effect of changes in oil prices on world interest rates, and vice versa. Our results imply that only very large oil price increases will have a significant impact on world interest rates. However, oil prices show a non-negligible sensitivity to changes in world interest rates.