股权风险溢价与资产配置关系浅析

随着资产配置这一概念在全球日益深入人心,相应的资产配置研究已成为全球资产管理机构及研究机构的主流研究方向。从某种意义上来说,股权风险溢价之所以受到如此重视,是因为股权风险溢价的水平在很大程度上主导了投资者资产配置的结构与方向。     

金融市场风险度量方法研究

文章首先分析了金融市场风险度量方法的产生与发展,以及金融市场风险度量方法分类的基本框架,并评述了每类风险度量方法的优点与不足,其次,研究了市场风险度量方法的新进展,并按一致风险度量标准,对以分位数为基础的度量方法的特点与实现条件进行了分析比较,最后,对金融市场风险度量方法进行了必要的归类。     

中国家庭寿险资产和其他资产选择研究——基于生命周期风险和资产同时配置

本文从生命周期风险和资产同时配置的视角研究中国城镇家庭的寿险和储蓄、股票、房产四类资产的选择问题.作者利用中国家庭收入调查数据,结合SUR和Probit、Tobit回归联合估计家庭几类资产的选择方程.主要发现,家庭寿险(股票)资产的持有率、寿险(股票)占家庭金融资产的份额都是随家庭生命周期变动呈“倒U”型.家庭财务脆弱程度显著影响了家庭的寿险持有,但对于其他资产的持有决策没有显著影响.家庭资产配置中,房产挤出了三类金融资产,寿险和股票呈互补关系.随着家庭收入的增长,家庭将更多地选择金融资产,尤其是寿险和股票资产.负债的家庭更多地持有寿险,更少地持有储蓄.中国南、北方家庭的资产持有形式存在较为显著的差异.     

国内风险度量理论研究综述

风险的客观存在及损失的产生使人们对风险的认识不断深入,进而产生了现代风险理论,而现代风险理论的重点是风险管理。风险度量理论是风险管理理论的一个重要组成部分,理清并综述国内风险度量理论研究及其进展对于风险理论的研究具有一定学术价值。     

基本养老保险基金资产配置策略研究

近年来,学者在基本养老保险基金发挥投资职能方面的研究多侧重投资管理体系的设计和资产组合管理方面,较少从资产配置的角度研究基金金融资产的分配策略。本文通过研究适合养老保险基金的战略性资产配置与动态调整相结合的策略,模拟战略性配置策略分析基金的潜在投资损失,阐述发挥基金投资职能的紧迫性,并在分析执行策略面临风险的基础上给出资产配置的实施建议。     

诉讼风险、资金持有与企业资产配置

本文以企业的固定资产和金融资产配置为切入点,选用2001—2015年所有A股非金融类上市公司的诉讼数据,实证检验了诉讼风险对企业资产配置决策的影响。结果表明,诉讼风险对企业资产配置具有负向调节作用,尤其显著缩减了金融资产的配置规模和比例;诉讼风险对非国有企业及中西部地区企业资产配置的冲击更为明显;诉讼风险的作用机理是资金削弱效应,即减少内部可用现金流和提高外部可融资金成本。本文的研究为我国市场经济法制建设的完善和企业投融资决策提供了启示。     

当前我国商业银行操作风险度量研究

操作风险是银行业三大风险之一,有效控制操作风险是完善银行操作风险管理体系、提高经营管理水平的客观要求:而实现操作风险的准确度量,则是有效防范操作风险的重要前提.目前我国对操作风险的研究还处于探索阶段,今后应在以下五个方面加强研究:(1)制定操作风险管理政策;(2)设计操作风险管理组织架构及再造业务流程;(3)建立内部控制自我评价体系;(4)建立操作风险损失数据库;(5)探索操作风险度量模型.     

浅析国外基金业的资产配置情况

通过介绍美国、日本及我国港台地区基金业资产配置的情况,本文分析了各国及地区基金业相关法律法规,从市场和制度两个方面对基金业发达国家及地区进行剖析。在展现其它地区基金业资产配置之后,期能对我国基金业的资产配置有些启示。     

Optimal asset allocation strategies of university endowment funds

Optimal asset allocation for university endowment funds is very important in USA. The management of endowment funds is challenging due to the need of finding out the balance between providing adequate and stable spending for beneficiaries and growth of the portfolio. In this paper, the author address these allocation constraints in a dynamic framework, in which minimum subsistence levels are introduced in the objective function and derive explicit formulas for the optimal portfolio strategy.     

Differential income taxation and household asset allocation

This article empirically investigates the effects of differential income taxation on households’ portfolio choice and asset allocation, applying a two-stage budgeting model of asset demand to German survey data. The model is structured into the discrete and the continuous asset choice. Cross-sectional variation in marginal tax rates, appropriately instrumented, as well as over-time variation from a major tax reform are used to identify the tax effects. Households with higher tax rates are found to have relatively greater demand for tax-privileged assets, such as nonowner-occupied housing, mortgage repayments, building society deposits, stocks, insurances and consumer credits, than households with lower tax rates. Demand at higher tax rates is lower for owner-occupied housing, bank deposits and bonds.     

Discrete-time optimal asset allocation under Higher-Order Hidden Markov Model

This paper studies an optimal portfolio selection problem under a discrete-time Higher-Order Hidden Markov-Modulated Autoregressive (HO-HMMAR) model for price dynamics. By interpreting the hidden states of the modulating higher-order Markov chain as different states of an economic condition, the model discussed here may incorporate the long-term memory of economic states in modeling price dynamics and optimal asset allocation. The estimation of an estimation method based on Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters with a view to reducing numerical redundancy. The asset allocation problem is then discussed in a market with complete information using the standard Bellman's principle and recursive formulas are derived. Numerical results reveal that the HO-HMMAR model may have a slightly better out-of-sample forecasting accuracy than the HMMAR model over a short horizon. The optimal portfolio strategies from the HO-HMMAR model outperform those from the HMMAR model without long-term memory in both real data and simulated data experiments.     

An analysis of the consumption risk and asset returns of Chinese residents

The research on the consumption-based asset pricing theory is limited to the developed capital markets. This paper seeks to extend the research to the Chinese developing capital market. It analyzes the dynamic relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption, stock market returns and interest rates with the CCAPM. According to the analyses of this paper, the IV regression results are mixed. However, the data can fit the model relatively well, and the empirical results fail to reject the model. Thus, the results show that a relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption growth rates and the asset returns does indeed exist, and that the consumption volatility risk could influence the asset returns.     

Strategies can be expensive too! The value spread and asset allocation in global equity markets

Is the value spread useful for forecasting returns on quantitative equity strategies for country selection? To test this, we examine a sample of 120 country-level equity strategies replicated within 72 stock markets for the years 1996–2017. The value spread is a powerful and robust predictor of strategy returns in the cross-section, subsuming other methods based on momentum, reversal, or seasonality. Going long (short) the strategies with the broadest (narrowest) value spread produces significant four-factor model alphas, markedly outperforming an equal-weighted benchmark of all of the strategies. The results are robust to many considerations.     

A new test procedure for the choice of dependence structure in risk measurement: application to the US and UK stock market indices

The choice of an appropriate dependence structure in modelling multivariate risks is an important issue because different tail structure embedded in copula leads to a different capital requirement for the institution. We present how to select a well-specified dependence structure to given application data. Using a simple simulation technique, we develop a statistical test to assess the adequacy of a specific dependence structure. We examine the sensitivity of risk estimates to the choice of copulas using the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 stock indices.     

固定资产折旧方法的比较分析

影响固定资产折旧的因素主要表现为折旧基数、折旧年限、预计净残值以及折旧方法的选择。企业在选择折旧方法时,要根据企业自身的特点,按照国家政策的相关规定,选择恰当的折旧方法,以适应企业发展的需要。     

风险度量的经济学理性与风险度量方法比较

本文引入风险度量的经济学理性概念:一种风险度量方法为经济学理性的是指,这种方法对风险的度量结果与经济学中理性人对风险的排序结果相一致,采用这种方法度量风险的决策者,其决策结果也是经济学理性的。本文从风险状态下的决策理论出发,论证了在银行监管问题上,经济学理性的风险度量方法需要满足的条件。结合银行资本充足率监管的演进趋势,比较了几种重要的风险度量方法,并提出了一种经济学理性的、符合银行监管需要的风险度量方法。     

山东省固定资产投资与经济增长的实证研究

固定资产投资对于经济增长有着重要的作用。以计量经济学的模型为基础,对山东省固定资产投资和经济增长进行定量分析,结果表明,固定资产投资能够促进经济增长,而且时间因素对山东的经济增长也有影响。