国际金融危机对我国农业经济的影响及对策

当前,国际金融危机对我国的影响还在继续发酵之中,经济运行继续放缓,其中,对我国农业的健康发展产生了巨大的负面效应也开始不断显现。具体表现在:农产品价格持续下跌、农产品逆差进一步加大、经济增长速度持续下滑、农民持续增收粮食难度也逐渐加大。本文在对金融危机产生的原因进行分析基础上,揭示出金融危机对我国农业经济的影响,然后提出应对策略。     

金融危机与农产品进出口

1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年世界金融危机对我国农产品进出口有着直接和间接的影响，尽管两次金融危机的规模和影响程度不一样，但我国农产品的进出口一定程度上都出现了波动。本文通过对比两次金融危机前后我国主要农产品的进出口数据，来分析我国农产品进出品的变化情况，受影响程度及应对措施，进而提出一些政策性建议。     

浅析农民贷款难问题的成因及对策

我国是一个农业大国，农村经济在国民经济中占有极其重要的地位。融资难是当前我国农村金融领域的突出问题，也是制约农村发展、农业增效和农民增收的重要因素。2008年的金融危机对中国“三农”产生了很大的冲击，使得保持农业稳定发展、农民持续增收的难度明显加大。2008年9月份以后，沿海大批出口加工企业出现困难，一批农民工失去工作，提前返乡，对2009年农民收入问题构成很大压力。而从市场情况看，受金融危机影响，全世界消费低迷，包括对粮食需求都在下降，粮食价格和农产品价格呈现走低趋势，这对农民牛产积极性将造成打击。如何促进农业发展是我罔走出金融危机影响的一个关键因素，在金融危机大背景下，农民贷款难的问题又显得格外突出。     

农产品价格对农业保险投保及道德风险的影响： 一个理论框架及政策建议

本文通过构建理论模型,分析了农产品价格与农户生产行为以及保险行为的关系,重点考察了农产品价格对农业保险投保及道德风险的影响,结论认为：农产品价格对农业保险投保和道德风险具有一定影响,农产品价格越高,在保险费率高于公平费率的情况下,农户投保积极性越高;农产品价格越高,正常生产行为获得的利润越高,道德风险发生的概率越小。根据该结论并结合我国农业保险经营中的实际问题,本文认为：应当充分关注农产品价格剧烈波动对农业保险稳定经营造成的不利影响,防止其所引致的逆选择和道德风险问题扭曲传统农业保险经营。建议采取价格保险的形式合理转嫁农户面临的农产品价格波动风险,同时,应在加强风险控制的前提下,适度提高发达地区农业保险的保障程度。     

我国农产品价格波动的影响因素分析

本文从近年来我国农产品价格波动的特点m发,从理论上剖析市场供需、成本、国际农产品价格对农产品价格波动的影响,并选取近十年数据进行实证分析。研究发现,农产品价格自身和国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格波动的贡献率大、影响显著,通货膨胀和货币供应量的贡献率比较小、成本影响较为复杂。在此基础上．本文对稳定农产品价格、规避农产品价格风险提出了具体建议。     

美国“黄箱”补贴政策应对WTO规则的经验及其启示

WTO"黄箱"规则包括特定农产品支持和非特定农产品支持,是一国国内农业支持政策的主干部分。从1996年的农业法案至今,美国为了应对WTO"黄箱"规则,对其国内农业补贴政策进行了三次重大改革,包括削减价格支持,完善收入补贴和农业保险制度,在不同阶段有不同的适应WTO"黄箱"规则的方式。整体来看,美国"黄箱"综合支持量在下降,但微量允许增长较快,特定农产品支持以非市场化价格手段为主,非特定农产品支持手段多样化。美国应对"黄箱"规则经历了一个不断探索的过程,重点支持具有比较优势的特定农产品并大力拓展非特定农产品的支持空间。我国农业补贴政策应该借鉴美国的经验,按照市场化方向逐步改革"黄箱"政策,基于农产品比较优势来优化补贴结构以及充分拓展利用对非特定农产品的支持空间。     

小宗农产品价格波动及货币供应量的影响——基于蛛网模型和VAR模型的数理和实证研究

近年来小宗农产品价格的剧烈波动在一定程度上影响了农业生产秩序和物价稳定,加剧了通胀预期.为此采用发散型蛛网模型深入研究小宗农产品的价格形成机制,并采用VAR模型分析货币因素对小宗农产品价格波动的影响,在此基础上分析小宗农产品价格异常波动的原因及影响,并有针对性地提出构建我国小宗农产品价格稳定机制的对策建议.     

我国农产品价格波动原因解析及其应对建议

近期,我国部分农产品价格近期频繁出现较大幅度的波动,严重的扰乱了农业生产的正常秩序,影响了我国的经济社会的稳定。影响我国农产品价格波动的因素众多而复杂,要稳定农产品市场,需要采取一些直接作用于农产品生产流通消费的政策措施,使农产品价格调控朝着有利于农民发展生产和不增加低收入消费者负担方向变化。     

入世后我国农业结构调整任务艰巨

我国研究WTO农业问题专家、中国农业大学经济管理学院教授田维明,日前就中国加入世贸组织对国内农业的影响发表看法认为,鉴于目前我国粮食、油料、棉花等农产品的国内市场价格普遍高于国际市场价格,执行入世协议势必会对上述农产品的国内市场造成     

农产品价格变化对农村CPI及农民消费水平的影响

农产品销售价格对农业生产和农民消费水平有着重大影响。本文通过对农产品价格变动对农村居民消费价格指数和农民消费水平影响的实证分析,探寻农产品价格与农民消费水平之间的内在经济联系,测算农产品价格变动对农村居民消费价格指数的影响程度,从而为利用价格信息引导农业生产、进行结构调整、建立促进农民增收的长效机制提供政策建议。     

经济复苏进程中国际金价缘何大幅上涨

金融危机过后,在世界经济的复苏进程中,国际黄金价格出现大幅度上涨,其主要原因是美元贬值的压力、通货膨胀的威胁、复苏进程的不确定性、国际黄金市场供求关系的变化。黄金价格短期内上行趋势不会改变,但长期看不可持续。     

Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between changes in crude oil prices and stock markets returns. The findings, obtained by means of a DCC-GARCH from June 2006 to June 2016, indicate that demand shocks positively affected the correlations between crude oil prices and stock market returns from late 2007 to mid-2008, during the apex of the financial markets volatility; from early 2009 to mid-2013, during global economy recovery from the financial crisis; and after 2015, when uncertainties about the Chinese growth and the US economy upturning arose. The dynamic conditional correlation, obtained after the removal of demand shocks effects, presented an average value of 0.13 when all economy sectors were considered and of 0.03 when the energy sector returns were excluded from the stock index. These correlations, still positive on average, suggest that exogenous supply oil shocks had little impact on US mainly enterprises cash flows over the last 10 years. Exceptions are the periods from 2006 to financial crisis and from 2014 until April 2016, when significant and unpredicted changes in oil market happened, considerably affecting the value of the main US companies.     

Volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent spot crude oil prices: an analysis of granger causality in variance patterns over time

There has been an increase in price volatility in oil prices during and since the global financial crisis (GFC). This study investigates the Granger causality patterns in volatility spillovers between West Texas International (WTI) and Brent crude oil spot prices using daily data. We use Hafner and Herwartz’s (2006) test and employ a rolling sample approach to investigate the changes in the dynamics of volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent oil prices over time. Volatility spillovers from Brent to WTI prices are found to be more pronounced at the beginning of the analysis period, around the GFC, and more recently in 2020. Between 2015 and 2019, the direction of volatility spillovers runs unidirectionally from WTI to Brent oil prices. In 2020, however, a Granger-causal feedback relation between the volatility of WTI and Brent crude oil prices is again detected. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding how the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve and how long the economies and financial markets will be affected. In this uncertain environment, commodities markets participants could be reacting to prices and volatility signals on both WTI and Brent, leading to the detection of a feedback relation.     

我国当前通货膨胀影响因素及对策分析——基于2008年以来国家的货币政策

在面对2008年金融危机时,由于政策使用不当及执行力度不够,我国又迎来了新一轮的通货膨胀。本轮的通货膨胀主要是由于货币政策的失误导致货币供应量增加过快,引起总需求的扩大,进而导致价格持续上涨,而政府在短时间内难以控制货币供应量及信贷规模的增长,使目前的通货膨胀变得难以控制。     

福建省发展地方优势特色农产品保险的实践和思考

发展现代农业,就必须解决农业生产面临的自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,就需要大力发展农业保险分散风险.当前,一些地方优势特色农产品保险发展还不够充分,不能有效分散地方优势特色农产品自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,成为制约地方优势农产品持续发展的一个因素.在供给侧,农业保险经营主体能力有待提高,保障的总体水平仍然偏低,保险产品种类少,产品设计重物不重人.在需求侧也存在一些地方政府重视不够,投入不足,农民投保意愿不强等短板.为此,建议供需两侧同步发力,共同推动地方优势特色农产品保险高质量发展,更好分散地方优势特色农业生产经营风险.供给侧注重保险产品创新、保险机构服务能力提升,需求侧增加财政投入、调动农民参保缴费积极性.     

2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

Clearing and Collateral Mandates: A New Liquidity Trap?

All too often, legislative solutions to some financial crisis have serious consequences that are both unwanted and unintended. The author of this article foresees several possible negative consequences arising from Title VII of the Dodd‐Frank Act, which mandates that eligible derivatives be cleared through central counterparties (CCPs) that require initial and variation margin. The new legislation also requires that the remaining non‐cleared derivatives that are traded by some market participants be more heavily collateralized. The Act's authors have argued that derivatives pose uniquely dangerous systemic risks because of the leverage and counterparty risk associated with them. Increased collateralization, their thinking goes, would reduce derivatives‐related leverage and the systemic risk to the financial system associated with such leverage. The author argues that these hopes are unduly optimistic because they fail to recognize how market participants can substitute other forms of leverage, such as bank lines of credit or collateral transformation trades, for the leverage derivatives provided previously. The author also believes that the larger collateral mandates and frequent marking‐to‐market will make the financial system more vulnerable since margin requirements tend to be “pro‐cyclical.” And more rigid collateralization mechanisms can restrict the supply of funding liquidity, and lead to spikes in funding liquidity demand that can reduce the liquidity of traded instruments and generate destabilizing feedback loops. The fragmentation of CCPs across jurisdictions and products will lead to greater demand for CCP‐eligible collateral to maintain the same level of hedging transactions. This demand will likely be met by using riskier assets as collateral and encourage the shadow banking system to create new assets that can be posted as collateral (for example, via collateral transformation services). In sum, although the Dodd‐Frank rules are intended to reduce systemic risk, their expected impact on liquidity makes it a very open question as to whether they will achieve this goal. Although they may reduce some risks, they will simply shift others while possibly creating new ones.     

Screening incentives and privacy protection in financial markets: a theoretical and empirical analysis

We study a model in which firms offer financial products to individuals, post prices for their products, and screen consumers who apply to purchase them. Any information obtained in the screening process may be traded to another firm selling related products. We show that firms' ability to sell consumer information can lead to lower prices, higher screening intensities, and increased social welfare. By exploiting variations in the adoption of local financial‐privacy ordinances in five California Bay Area counties, we are able to provide simple estimates of the effects of stricter financial‐privacy laws on mortgage denial rates during 2001–2006. Consistent with the model's predictions, denial rates for home‐purchase loans and refinancing loans decreased in counties where opt‐in privacy ordinances were adopted. Moreover, estimated foreclosure start rates during the financial crisis of 2007–2008 were higher in counties where the privacy ordinance was adopted.     

土地资产价格波动与经济中的流动性供给——基于以地融资视角的研究

本文通过构建理论模型探讨土地资产价格波动与流动性供给之间的关系。在本文模型中,土地兼具生产资本与抵押资产属性,银行贷款同时受到投资需求、抵押品价值与信贷额度的约束。本文主要结论是:(1)土地资产价格在低于一个由基础货币供给决定的临界值后,能影响企业的抵押品价值并反映投资需求变化,故而与存款货币流动性供给正相关。这也使土地资产价格变化与企业杠杆周期一致且具有“预期自我实现”特征。(2)基础货币供给能够通过影响土地的流动性价值的方式来引导土地资产价格,前提是央行可掌握土地资产价格外生变化的原因。(3)信贷资产证券化会提高存款货币供给与土地价格的关联度,但也会削弱基础货币供给对土地价格的引导能力。本文的研究有助于认识土地资产价格与货币政策效果以及系统性金融风险的关联机制,为房地产调控政策提供启示。