Status,Daten und Entwicklungen der globalen Energieversorgung

Global energy consumption is growing. The growth in energy consumption is now covered roughly equally by renewable energy resources and fossil energy resources. Nevertheless, crude oil, natural gas and coal continue to form the backbone of energy supplies. This means that the dependency of energy supplies on fossil energy resources will continue for the foreseeable future. In Germany as well, there is no end in sight of the country decreasing its high dependency on imports of fossil energy resources despite the high growth rate of renewables—and due in part to the decline in domestic production and the withdrawal from nuclear power generation. Crude oil, natural gas, hard coal and lignite with a share of around 80%, still make the largest contribution to the German and global primary energy consumption.All of the renewables together cover around 17% of global energy consumption. Despite the almost inexhaustible potential, making energy generation from renewable sources available at a large scale and commensurate with demand is still in its infancy. By way of contrast, very large reserves of fossil energy resources have already been developed for many years, and are being used in growing quantities. The global comparison of already produced and therefore consumed energy resources and the still existing reserves and resources, reveal that large non-depleted energy potential still exists in all regions around the world. Whilst the potential hardly appears to be touched in Austral-Asia, in the CIS and North America, only a small portion has been produced to date even in Europe. This wealth in resources is primarily attributable to the large deposits of coal found on all continents, which, unlike conventional crude oil and natural gas, are not restricted to a few special regions. Although the Middle East is an extremely important region for crude oil and natural gas, the minor coal reserves in the area mean that its overall potential is comparatively small.     

Risikomanagement und -controlling bei Offshore-Windenergieanlagen

In this paper we provide an overview of the various terms and methods used in risk management and risk controlling. Further, we identify and discuss internal and external risks of offshore wind power plants (WPP) and demonstrate for the concrete example of a fictitious 400 MW offshore wind park in the North Sea the use of the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The offshore risks involved are considered as part of the different components of the free cash flow, which form the basis for the DCF evaluation, by using a Monte Carlo simulation. The latter contains assumptions for the distribution of each cash flow component, which are based on a detailed consideration of the risk bearings. We use the cash flow at risk (CFaR), with the DCF as the risk-carrying target variable, as a quantitative risk measure for the simulated DCF evaluation. The CFaR enables us to draw a conclusion regarding the risk distribution of the DCF. According to the fictitious offshore wind park studied, the CFaR obtained provides evidence that the investment project investigated is indeed economically viable.     

Bewertung und Steuerung von Gasspeichern bzw. Gasspeicherscheiben

In this paper you find a brief introduction to the German gas market as well as a draft of the resulting storage requirements in Germany. In the following different storage usages are looked into from an economical perspective. Additionally the presented evaluating methods in this paper are specified. This paper then introduces stochastic optimization methods which give the possibility to assess the storage against the spot price as well as against to the whole forward curve. For this models to evaluate the market price are illustrated and calibrated on the basis of empirical data.After this a sample storage slice is rated with the Least-Square-Monte-Carlo method based on a stochastic multi factor spot price model. Then the hedging evaluation against the whole forward curve is presented. Concluding you find a comparison of the two methods.     

Status und Herausforderungen der Energieversorgung der EU-28

The current crisis in the Ukraine, the promotion of renewables and climate change have caused the issue of energy supply to come to the fore in the media. In designing the European energy supply it is essential that three energy policy objectives be pursued: competitive strength, security of supply and environmental compatibility. At the end of the past decade, the European Union set the so-called 20-20-20 targets, to be reached by the year 2020. The first specified objective is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20?% compared with 1990 levels, the second to expand the share of renewables in final energy consumption to 20?%, and the third is to improve energy efficiency by 20?% by the year 2020. The achievement of these targets is tied to the situation in the member states, which varies considerably. Resources and—as a result—the energy mix, the states’ economic development and the various governments’ alignment of energy policy are very different. The amount of energy consumed varies significantly depending on the size of the country in question, population density, economic performance and industrial structure as well as climatic conditions. But the energy mix and import dependency, in particular the dependency on Russian natural gas under discussion in the current situation, also differ considerably in the various EU-28 countries. The EU is facing the special challenge of taking account of the country-specific circumstances while dealing with the impact of climate change, growing import dependency, and the world’s rising demand for energy as well as the associated, ever-increasing competition on the commodity markets. This requires that the EU consider all energy and technology options and strive to establish a common EU energy space.     

Negative Strompreise und der Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien

With the appearance of negative prices a discussion about flaws in the design of the German electricity market arose. We show that negative prices are not only due to the integration of electricity from renewable energy sources. Negative prices can actually increase welfare. Yet, a loss of welfare does arise because of the priority feed-in of these sources. They are inclined to deliver energy even when the cost of production exceeds the market price, i.e. the electricity’s value. We suggest to remove the priority feed-in combined with a modification of the feed-in tariffs. Thereby, renewable electricity producers will suffer no drawbacks but social welfare increases.     

Kohlekraftwerke mit CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-Abscheidung: Strategien,Rahmenbedingungen und umweltseitige Auswirkungen

A successful implementation of CO₂-capture in power plants is mainly depending on the energy political or economical environment. The future role of lignite and hard coal power production varies widely in presumed energy scenarios. This report considers the actual projections of BDEW. Increasing demand, the replacement of old plants and the compensation of efficiency losses due to CCS-technology cause highly ambitious expansion rates, assuming a retrofit time horizon of 10 years starting in 2020. The corresponding coal demand increases strongly. Therefore, a solely concentration of CO₂-reduction potential is not sufficient. Other environmental impacts triggered through emissions are low compared to the total German impacts. Nevertheless, the compliance with national ceilings for NO_x emissions for example can only be reached by compensation measures in other sectors.     

Kundenportale in der Energiebranche: Bestandsaufnahme und Entwicklungspotenziale

Since the energy market had been liberalized, the competition between utilities has increased. In order to win new and hold existing customers, it seems necessary to develop new services and products that closely meet the needs of the customers. An online-portal can be such a service, as it will serve as a central interface between utility and customer when the personal contact diminishes due to a decreasing local focus of the utility and the omission of the meter reading at the customer’s house caused by Smart Metering. In this article, the major criteria for the development of such a portal will be introduced. A market survey shows which criteria are already considered and which design criteria are not taken into account yet. This article focuses psychological concepts that motivate customers to use the portal regularly and save energy. We conclude that there is much room for improvement with regard to the criteria that are meant to illustrate the energy consumption and with regard to the provision of psychological incentives.     

Marktabgrenzung und Marktbeherrschung auf Elektrizitätsmärkten

This article presents the current market definition in the different electricity markets as applied by the Bundeskartellamt (Federal Cartel Office). The market definition has been modified recently due to an increasing intensity of competition. The main focus is on the definition of the relevant product and geographic markets at the end consumer level. Moreover, the article considers implications of the market definition for competition policy.     

Kurzevaluation des Energie- und Klimapakets der EU-Kommission vom 23. Januar 2008

The main features of the European Commission’s “Climate Action and Renewable Energy Package” from January 23rd, 2008, have been implemented in the GINFORS model. In 2007 various alternative paths for achieving the EU’s climate targets were analysed on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology (BMWi) using GINFORS. The results basically point in the same direction as those found by the model-based Impact Assessment put out by the European Commission. The macro-economic costs of the package are below 1 % of the EU’s annual GDP. In particular the new member states will be affected above average, which justifies redistribution mechanisms. The yearly growth rates though will remain almost unchanged until 2020. The disproportionately high reduction targets for the ETS sector cannot be reproduced by GINFORS. They cause higher macro-economic costs than necessary. Altogether this does not yet result in a coherent traceable overall picture of the EU package, especially in comparison to analyses of the German energy and climate change policy.     

Intelligente Stromzähler und -netze: Versorger zögern mit neuen Angeboten

Without an intelligent energy network, the German government’s climate targets cannot be achieved. That’s because the development and supply to energy networks of renewable energies call for so-called “smart grids”. Smart meters are only the beginning here, and their installation has been mandatory in new buildings and as part of extensive renovations since the beginning of the year. The power suppliers expect that by 2020 most households in Germany will be fitted with smart meters. Yet the entire industry is generally behaving with some reluctance to driving forward the world of smart energy. These are the findings of the 2010 energy supplier industry compass, published by Steria Mummert Consulting in collaboration with the F.A.Z. Institute. The compass reports that although three quarters of companies plan to invest in new time- and load-variable rates by 2012, what they in fact offer are, in some cases, the cheapest possible solutions that just meet legal requirements. The reason for the suppliers’ reluctance: the great majority of companies are still not convinced about the benefits and economic efficiency of smart metering for their own business. Plus, they estimate that consumer demand over the coming years will be on the low side. Just eleven per cent of the directors of 100 supply companies questioned in the survey see smart metering as a suitable tool for achieving the German government’s climate targets.     

Prognose der Kraftstoffpreisentwicklung und ihrer Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage nach Bahntransportleistungen in Österreich

Due to increasing crude oil consumption, especially of the fast growing Asian economies, decreasing production rates of several oil fields and increasing exploration costs, the oil price reached a new all time high in July 2008. The present world wide economic crisis caused a sharp decrease of the oil prices, nevertheless, prices will rise again with economic recovery. In this paper, long term projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and future contracts notations are employed to estimate oil price development until the year 2020. We estimate the price transmission of crude oil prices to Austrian retail diesel and gasoline prices and combine the estimation results with long term projections of the crude oil price. These projections are used to analyze the effect of rising oil prices on Austrian railway demand. The effect of increasing mineral oil taxes with the aim of an increasing internalisation of the external costs of road traffic on railway demand is discussed.     

团结联合求真务实创新发展提高前进

1．发挥联合优势，举办了一些有影响的大型活动，增强了行业凝聚力和影响力。     

Structure,conduct, performance,and welfare

This paper extends previous analysis of weaknesses of the structure-conduct-performance paradigm and of the price-cost margin as a measure of performance. Sufficient conditions are established under which monotonic linkages may not exist between virtually any two of social welfare, its individual components, structure, conduct, or performance.