The multidimensional diffusion of technology

Much of the literature on the diffusion of innovations focuses on the rate of adoption of innovation. The question of why the diffusion should continue in the first place has been generally neglected likewise, it is one of the most commonly noted empirical regularities that the diffusion of technology evinces an S-shaped pattern. However, only meager attention has been paid to the question of why the observed pattern is what it is. In this study an attempt has been made to explore some of these hitherto neglected questions. The thesis is advanced here that a consideration of both qualitative and quantitative dimensions of the evolutionary process is a prerequisite to development of an adequate theory of diffusion and substitution of technology. A theoretical model of multidimensional diffusion of technology is presented and illustrated by means of a case study.     

On the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy technological progress

As a needed methodological complement to the existing large-scale complex policy modelling for energy technology diffusion, this paper contributes to an analytical exposition of the fundamental mechanism of international technology diffusion (ITD) for energy technological progress. We offer two different and complementary perspectives to explore the dynamics of energy technology diffusion and progress. We first develop a Solow-type efficiency-improving model of energy technological progress which is described by improvements in primary energy-augmenting efficiency. We further provide a Romer-type variety-expanding model of energy technological progress which is represented by the expansion of differentiated varieties of primary energy technology blueprints. Analysis based on two different models reaches consistent results: there are potential forces in the world economy – working through ITD – that pull individual countries to advance energy technology, ensuring a cross-country convergence in the growth rates of energy technology in the balanced growth path. While ITD plays a role in a cross-country convergence in technological growth rates, cross-country differences in the efficiency of undertaking indigenous research and the capacity of absorbing foreign technology spillovers would lead to a cross-country divergence in the absolute levels of energy technology.     

The international diffusion of new technology

An analysis of the factors influencing the international diffusion of new technology is presented. As a result of the analysis, a model of the international diffusion process is proposed and tested statistically using diffusion data for two major innovations in the Steel Industry.     

The pattern of international patenting and technology diffusion

The article focuses on the impact of R&D expenditure on labour productivity using international patent applications as a technology diffusion indicator. Considering the relationship between research and productivity, the pattern of international patenting reflects the channel between the source and the destination of transferred technology. Accounting for nonstationarity and cointegration, I find that patent-related foreign R&D spillovers are present for a panel of 18 OECD countries. Moreover, nonG7 OECD countries benefit more from foreign rather than domestic R&D activities. Estimates also show that there is no significant spillover effect from bilateral trade, but confirm the impact of FDI on domestic labour productivity.     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

国内外能源相对价格与中国的能源效率

提高能源效率是实现经济可持续发展和减少污染排放的根本途径。基于非线性平滑转换模型的分析显示,能源价格对能源效率的影响机制存在非线性的平滑转换。机制转换的主要引导因素是国内外能源价格指数的相对变化,机制转换的阈值近似为1。目前我国能源价格对能源效率的影响比较接近高效机制运行,增强能源价格的灵活性,可以实现能源消费者的自我选择,是提高我国能源效率的可行选择。     

Information,innovation and diffusion of technology

The paper presents an infinite horizon model of innovation and diffusion incorporating features from recent advances in evolutionary economics. A stochastic variant is explored which posits that technological knowledge is costly to obtain, requiring resource expenditure. There are heterogeneous agents: optimizing as well as non-optimizing agents. The optimizing agents incur an innovation cost. The return from inventive investment is random. The non-optimizing agents, operating existing technologies, behave solely adaptively. Cross-effects between those two types of agents give rise to the multiple equilibria, path-dependence, diversity of diffusion processes and a coexistence of different technologies. Some policy conclusions are drawn in the last section.     

The effect of new technology on energy consumption

This paper uses patent data to estimate the effect of new technologies on energy consumption. Matching energy patent counts to the industries using these patents, I create stocks of energy knowledge for 13 industries. Including the stocks in restricted variable cost functions, I estimate the median present value of long run savings from a new patent to be over US$ 14.5 million. Combining these results with estimates of price-induced innovation, I conclude that two-thirds of the change in energy consumption with respect to a price change is due to simple price-induced factor substitution, while the remaining third results from induced innovation.     

Information technology and efficiency in trucking

Abstract .  We develop an econometric model to estimate the impact of Electronic Vehicle Management Systems ( EVMS ) on the load factor ( LF ) of heavy trucks. This technology is supposed to improve capacity utilization. The model is estimated on the Quebec subsample of the 1999  National Roadside Survey . The  LF  is explained as a function of truck, trip, and carrier characteristics. We show that the use of  EVMS  results in an increase of 16 percentage points of  LF  on backhaul trips. However, we also find that there is a rebound effect on fronthaul movements, with a reduction of  LF  by about 7.6 percentage points.     

The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth

We present a model of growth driven by energy use and endogenous factor-augmenting technological change. Both the rate and direction of technological progress are endogenous. The model captures four main stylised facts: total energy use has increased; energy use per hour worked increased slightly; energy efficiency has improved; and the value share of energy in GDP has steadily fallen. We study how energy conservation policies affect growth over time and in the long run. Policies that reduce the level of energy use are distinguished from those that reduce the growth rate of energy inputs. Although these policies may stimulate innovation, they unambiguously depress output levels. The former policy has no impact on long-run growth; the latter reduces long-run growth both in the short run and in the long run.     

Cognitive skills,innovation and technology diffusion

This article presents new international estimates of human capital for the period 1970–2003. The new latent index is used to re-examine the Benhabib and Spiegel (2005) model of technology diffusion in a horse-race with the competing indicators of Barro and Lee (2010) and Hanushek and Wößmann (2009). Analysis employs cross-section and panel econometrics, extends beyond the Cobb–Douglas technology, and deals with endogeneity bias. Robust evidence confirms the significance of cognitive skills as a driver of innovation and diffusion. Although there is substantial diversity, the new human capital index has declined in many countries in Africa and the OECD.     

The new institutional economics and its relevance to social economics

There has been a quiet revolution in economic theory, led by the New Institutionalists. Pioneered by Douglass C. North, this group argues that institutions are the main determinants of economic performance, yet neoclassical economics has no role for institutions. Contrary to many misconceptions, this theory of institutions can be integrated with neoclassical economics, leaving mainstream economic theory in tact, but broader and more relevant. The purpose of this article is twofold. First, the main arguments of the New Institutionalists are summarized. Second, the bridge between institutions and social economics is explored. The article concludes by arguing that the New Institutional approach is fruitful, and that the theory will gradually be integrated with neoclassical economics, until the two merge into a single body of theory.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

Introduction of new technology: making use of recent insights from sociolcmgy and economics of technology

Retrospective studies have shown the non-linear and situated character of technological developments; the importance of articulation of demand and of acceptability, and how these are part of large socio-technical transformations; and how technical nd socio-technical alogment activities occur and are consciously shaped by 'macro-actors'. These insights are transformed into thirteen suggestions for successful introduction of new technology.     

The diffusion of internet-based distance education technology among US associate colleges

This paper analyzes the diffusion of internet-based distance education technology (NETDE) among the US associate colleges. The study finds that an institution with experience in using an earlier generation distance education technology is more likely to adopt NETDE than an institution without such an experience. The finding supports the view of Cohen and Levinthal (1990) that an organization's ‘absorptive capability’ plays a significant role in its innovative activities. Institution size also facilitates the adoption of NETDE. We relate this size effect to market power because the size effect is partly caused by customer switching costs present in the NETDE market. Finally, we find that, among public institutions, the presence of close competitors motivates an institution to adopt NETDE earlier.