EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

FINANCING URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE: KNOWNS,UNKNOWNS, AND A WAY FORWARD

Improved urban infrastructure is widely believed to be essential in facilitating economic growth and in improving the lives of urban dwellers, both in developed and in developing countries. This paper focuses on several dimensions of urban infrastructure finance: finance for major infrastructure improvements in major economic centers, finance for expansion of basic municipal services in secondary cities and towns, and intergovernmental systems for financing investments with impacts beyond jurisdictional limits. It reviews what is “known” about current practices in these areas, using international evidence and case studies and summarizing international best practices. It also indicates areas in which knowledge gaps remain. Despite these “unknowns,” there are avenues by which our understanding of infrastructure schemes can be enhanced, and some suggestions for a research agenda on financing urban infrastructure are offered in the concluding section.     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND RETIREMENT DECISION: A POSITIVE AND NORMATIVE APPROACH*

Abstract Social insurance for the elderly is judged responsible for the widely observed trend towards early retirement. In a world of laissez‐faire or in a first‐best setting, there would be no such trend. However, when first‐best instruments are not available, because health and productivity are not observable, the optimal social insurance policy may imply a distortion on the retirement decision. The main point we make is that while there is no doubt that retirement systems induce an excessive bias towards early retirement in many countries, a complete elimination of this bias (i.e. a switch to an actuarially fair system) is not the right answer for two reasons. First, some distortions are second‐best optimal. This is the normative argument. Second, and on the positive side, the elimination of the bias might be problematic from a political perspective. Depending on the political process, either it may not be feasible or alternatively it may tend to undermine the political support for the pension system itself.     

STUDIES OF MANAGERIAL JOBS AND BEHAVIOUR: THE WAYS FORWARD

The main achievements and limitations of studies of managerial jobs and behaviour are summarized drawing upon the review articles of Martinko and Gardner (1985) and Hales (1986). Ways forward are explored by developing a map of the field for future studies, which is shown in figure 1. The figure has three aims: to show different areas for research; to help in identifying neglected areas that could be fruitful ways forward; and to show the interrelationship between different aspects of the study and thus to act as a guide for data collection. The main purpose of the article is to be a guide to what can, and what might most fruitfully, be studied, but some suggestions are also made about methods.     

MODELLING LARGE OPEN ECONOMIES WITH INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES: THE USA AND EURO AREA

Empirical modelling of the linkages between the euro area and the USA requires an open economy framework. The methodology proposed in this paper achieves identification of a structural vector error correction model by supplementing restrictions from economic theory with assumptions for the direction of causality in cross‐country contemporaneous relationships. Our baseline model assumes contemporaneous causality runs from the USA to the euro area for both output and inflation, with monetary policy domestically focused. The role of the USA as leading the euro area business cycle is reinforced by our results, but strong bidirectional cross‐country interactions are uncovered for inflation and interest rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A PREDICTIVE APPROACH TO MODEL SELECTION AND MULTICOLLINEARITY

We argue for the adoption of a predictive approach to model specification. Specifically, we derive the difference between means and the ratio of determinants of covariance matrices when a subset of explanatory variables is included or excluded from a regression. Results for an economic application are presented as an example. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A SAM for Europe: Problems and Perspectives

This paper examines the conceptual and practical problems of constructing a social accounting matrix for Europe. It involves integrating the accounts of member countries within a complete system of regional accounts. The standard matrix framework first proposed by Stone is modified in two respects. First, functional and geographical transactions are distinguished between in order to simplify the accounting structure. Secondly, supraregional accounts are more formally incorporated so as to include accounts for the rest of the world and EC institutions, as well as to accommodate distribution and other transaction costs involved in moving goods, factors and assets between member countries. The general system of regional accounts can then be aggregated, consolidated or apportioned across member states but this has implications for both harmonizing accounts and classifications and considering the extent to which there is truly a ‘single European market’. Finally, the paper considers the availability of data and presents a preliminary compilation of aggregate accounts for three member countries.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

乐凯牵手柯达是合资更是跨越

关注乐凯合资的人终于可以松下一口气:去年年底,乐凯胶片集团与柯达公司正式签署了“股权转让合资合作协议书”之后,10年扑朔迷离的合资案尘埃落定。回头看乐凯的合资谈判过程,它最能吸引人们眼球的有三大看点:合资谈判耗时10年之久,几乎创造了中国企业与外方进行合资谈判的纪录;谈判过程呈现微妙的“三角恋”关系,人们对乐凯选择合资对象的猜测悬念重重;被媒体和舆论一直赞誉是肩扛民族旗帜的品牌最终通过吸纳外资而走向股权多元化,引发颇多人对民族工业的感慨和忧虑。在中国的胶片业市场,人们一直把乐凯、柯达和富士的关系形容成“三国演…     

PRIVATE POLICING AND PRIVATE ROADS: A COASIAN APPROACH TO DRUNK-DRIVING POLICY

Alcohol-related traffic accidents are externalities, not because of drinking, but because of relatively free access to public roads. Access limits are Coasian (property-rights) policies, but more effective limits will arise if road owners are liable for failing to provide safe roads. This can be achieved by privatising roads, thereby creating strong incentives to employ innovative private traffic policing.     

RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Abstract.  Real business cycle (RBC) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist's toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer textbook, which stresses theoretical issues. Many computational aspects are illustrated with reference to the simple divisible labor RBC model. Code and US data to replicate the computations are provided on the internet, together with a number of appendices providing background details.     

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO BANK PRUDENTIAL MANAGEMENT AND SUPERVISION: THE UTILIZATION OF FEEDFORWARD CONTROL

This paper explores the operational characteristics of a new systems approach for monitoring the prudential strength, or safety, of modern commercial banks. It exploits the principle of feedforward control through the simulated contingency analysis of a bank's planned financial and associated management positions. This approach will be shown to have operational potential for both individual bank managements and the supervisory authorities who monitor the prudential soundness of all banks. Most of the research to date in this field has been concerned with assessing the adequacy of a bank's capital funds, its capital adequacy position. The primary function of bank capital is to act as a kind of internal insurance fund in order to protect a bank against uncertainties.