Required Rates of Return for Corporate Investment Appraisal in the Presence of Growth Opportunities

Traditional methods of estimating required rates of return overstate hurdle rates in the presence of growth opportunities. We attempt to quantify this effect by developing a simple model which: (i) identifies those companies that have valuable growth opportunities; (ii) splits the value of shares into ‘assets‐in‐place’ and ‘growth opportunities’; and (iii) splits the equity β into β for ‘assets‐in‐place’ and ‘growth opportunities’. We find growth opportunities for UK companies over the 1990–2004 period to average 33% of equity value. Incorporating the effect of growth opportunities, the average cost of capital for investment purposes falls by 1.1 percentage points.     

On-balance-sheet duration hedging and firm value

In this study we consider the determinants and effects of on-balance-sheet duration hedging for non-financial US firms. The difference between the duration of assets and liabilities, or duration gap, is negatively related to growth opportunities, and positively related to profitability, corporate cash holdings, and managerial ownership. We find that both a lower duration gap and a lower absolute value of duration gap are associated with higher firm values. Moreover, we find some evidence that firms with larger duration gaps performed worse during the market-wide liquidity shock accompanying the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.     

EXTERNAL FINANCING,LIQUIDITY, AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

Using a large panel of industrial Compustat firms from 1971 to 1988, we find long-term external financing to be positively related to the period's capital expenditures on growth opportunities, but negatively related to beginning-of-the-period financial slack, broadly defined. These findings support the view that firms tend to match long-term sources of financing with long-lived assets, and short-term debt with short-lived assets. Our results also reinforce the belief that firms prefer internal to external financing. We find no evidence that firms favor financing capital expenditures with short-term debt, either permanently or temporarily.     

Some Evidence on the Uniqueness of Initial Public Debt Offerings

Debt initial public offerings (IPOs) represent a major shift in a firm's financing policy by both extending debt maturity and altering the public-private debt mix. In contrast to findings for seasoned debt offerings, we document a significantly negative stock price response to debt IPO announcements. This result is consistent with debt maturity and debt ownership structure theories. The equity wealth effect is negatively related to the offer's maturity, and positively related to the degree of bank monitoring. We find that firms with less information asymmetry and firms with higher growth opportunities experience a less adverse stock price response.     

Stock price informativeness,cross-listings,and investment decisions

We show that a cross-listing enables firms to obtain, from the stock market, more precise information about the value of their growth opportunities. Thus, cross-listed firms make better investment decisions and trade at a premium. This theory of cross-listings implies that the sensitivity of investment to stock prices is larger for cross-listed firms. Moreover, the cross-listing premium is positively related to the size of growth opportunities and negatively related to the quality of managerial information. The sensitivity of the premium to the size of growth opportunities increases with factors that strengthen the impact of the cross-listing on price informativeness.     

Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for SEO Event Studies and Long-Run Performance

We present a rational theory of SEOs that explains a pre‐issuance price run‐up, a negative announcement effect, and long‐run post‐issuance underperformance. When SEOs finance investment in a real options framework, expected returns decrease endogenously because growth options are converted into assets in place. Regardless of their risk, the new assets are less risky than the options they replace. Although both size and book‐to‐market effects are present, standard matching procedures fail to fully capture the dynamics of risk and expected return. We calibrate the model and show that it closely matches the primary features of SEO return dynamics.     

What Drives ETF Flows?

The value of exchange traded fund (ETF) assets has increased from $66 billion in 2000 to almost a trillion dollars in 2010. We use this massive expansion in ETF assets to study what drives ETF flows. Using a data set of over 500 ETFs from 2001 to 2010, we show that ETF investors chase returns in the same way as mutual fund investors. While there is an active debate about whether return chasing by mutual fund investors represents the pursuit of superior talent, the existence of return chasing in this passively managed environment should not represent a search for skilled managers. We also show that ETF flows increase following high volume, small spreads, and high price/net asset value ratios. Finally, we find little evidence of superior market timing in ETF flows. Our results suggest that return chasing in both mutual funds and ETFs is more likely the result of naïve extrapolation bias on the part of investors that has contributed to the growth of the ETF industry.     

Energy price uncertainty and the value premium

This paper examines the impact of energy price uncertainty on a range of value anomalies. We demonstrate that the value premium is substantially stronger in periods of heightened energy price uncertainty. Energy price uncertainty exerts an asymmetric effect on the value anomalies, whereby downside energy price uncertainty accentuates the return differences between value and growth stocks compared to upside energy uncertainty. These findings are consistent with the argument that value firms possess a larger amount of inflexible assets than growth firms. Therefore, they struggle more to adjust in periods of elevated energy price uncertainty. We also demonstrate that energy price uncertainty has predictive power on the value premium one-month ahead. Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares predictive model, energy price uncertainty can help mean-variance investors to obtain a positive annual utility gain across the value anomalies for up to 16.71%.     

Financial factors and firm growth: evidence from financial data on Taiwanese firms

We investigate the possible predictability of firm growth in Taiwan using cross-sectional data of financial factors for the years 1997 and 2003 via principal component analysis. Our results reveal that the 18 financial variables (sales growth rate, total assets, total sales, return on assets, return on equity, gross margin, operating cost minus depreciation divided by sales plus other trading income, acid test ratio, debt–equity ratio, time interest earned, average receivables per average daily sales, inventory, average payables per average daily sales, working capital, working capital as a fraction of total assets, long-term liabilities as a fraction of total assets, and sales as a fraction of net worth of the firm) that we employ bunch together into five different financial ratios for the years 1997 and 2003 that are stable between these years. These financial factors are short-term liquidity, return on investment, long-term liquidity, firm size and capital turnover. Regressing these ratio groups (extracted principal components) on firm growth, we find return on investment in the year 1997 was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while long-term solvency was negatively related to firm growth. In addition, smaller firms tended to grow faster. By 2003, larger firms grew faster than smaller ones and short-term liquidity was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while return on investment was no longer a significant determining factor. Our findings suggest that firms that finance internally or do not rely too heavily on indebtedness may end up growing slower during boom periods but they are the ones that survive and outperform after the bust.     

Decision usefulness of whole-asset operating lease capitalizations

Monson (2001) and Hepp and Scoles (2012) argue that some leased assets should be capitalized at the assets' purchase price (whole-asset value) rather than at the present value of future minimum lease payments (right-of-use asset value). The argument is based in part on the notion that the assets under lease generate future income not the obligation related to future lease payments. To test the notion we compare associations between capitalizations representing whole asset values and current and future return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) with capitalizations representing right-of-use asset values and current and future ROA and ROE. Our results indicate that the whole-asset annuity values are incrementally associated with future ROA and ROE over right-of-use asset values. We interpret our results to suggest that the current practice of capitalizing future lease payments does not fully reflect the income generation provided by leased assets.     

Offer pricing of Australian industrial initial public offers

In the present paper we examine the setting of offer prices for Australian industrial initial public offers (IPOs) by fixed price offers. Our investigation focuses on the associations between offer prices and both market prices and accounting based measures of intrinsic value. Fixed‐price offers are less likely to be influenced by the canvassing of market demand when compared to the US setting, where book‐builds are typically used. We conclude that while Australian industrial IPOs are underpriced, they are not systematically undervalued. Contrary to research undertaken by Purnanandam and Swaminathan in the US book‐build setting, we do not conclude that Australian IPOs are systematically overvalued. As part of our analysis, we develop an empirical model of offer prices based on interviews with several leading Australian stockbrokers involved in setting them. Finally, using the ratio of offer price to intrinsic value measure, we find some evidence that undervaluation is positively related to underpricing.     

Earnings Surprises,Growth Expectations,and Stock Returns or Don't Let an Earnings Torpedo Sink Your Portfolio

We provide new evidence that the inferior returns to growth stocks relative to value stocks are the result of expectational errors about future earnings performance. Our evidence demonstrates that growth stocks exhibit an asymmetric response to earnings surprises. We show that while growth stocks are at least as likely to announce negative earnings surprises as positive earnings surprises, they exhibit an asymmetrically large negative price response to negative earnings surprises. After controlling for this asymmetric price response, we find no remaining evidence of a return differential between growth and value stocks. We conclude that the inferior return to growth stocks is attributable to overoptimistic expectational errors that are corrected through subsequent negative earnings surprises.     

IPO initial returns in China: Underpricing or overvaluation?

This paper separates the amount of IPO underpricing(primary market underpricing) and overvaluation(secondary market overvaluation) from the value of an IPO's initial return to evaluate the relative importance of these two factors and their main determinants. Using data on the IPOs of 948 Chinese firms, we find that average initial returns are 66% and that underpricing and overvaluation are between 14–22% and 44–53%, respectively, depending on the method used to assess firms' intrinsic values. In addition, while both the value of the initial return and the extent of overvaluation are significantly negatively related to post-IPO long-run stock performance, overvaluation can predict post-IPO performance better than the value of the initial return. Value uncertainty in IPOs is positively related to both underpricing and overvaluation, and both the underwriter's reputation and the existence of pricing regulation are positively related to underpricing. Investor sentiment has a positive effect on overvaluation but has no effect or a negative effect on underpricing. Overall, our results suggest that in China overvaluation accounts for a larger proportion of the initial return than underpricing,and that underpricing and overvaluation have different determinants.     

Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that (a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and (b) the presence of arbitrage opportunities has a strong impact on the dynamics of the price discovery process.     

Return predictability and shareholders’ real options

This study re-interprets the properties of the residual income model by highlighting the shareholders’ abandonment (liquidation or adaptation) option. We estimate the value of this real option as an explicit component of abnormal earnings in the residual income model and test the improvement in valuation after incorporating it into the model. Relative to the traditional specification of the residual income model, this real options model has a stronger predictive power for future abnormal stock returns. We also find that the superior return predictability of the real options model is pronounced in the set of firms with a high probability of exercising liquidation options (for example, those with low profitability, low growth opportunities, high underlying asset volatility, and low intangible assets), which is consistent with the importance of shareholders’ abandonment option in equity valuation. The results are robust to extensive sensitivity checks.     

Trust‐Preferred Securities and Insurer Financing Decisions

We analyze insurance holding company (IHC) issuance of trust‐preferred securities (TPS) from 1994 to 2013. We find that larger and more financially levered IHCs issued TPS in 1996 and 1997, as well as those that obtained financial strength ratings from A.M. Best. Abnormal stock price returns are positively related to financial distress costs, growth opportunities, and tax burden, but negatively related to size. Consistent with the pecking order theory, intent to use TPS proceeds to retire debt is positively related to abnormal stock returns, whereas intent to use proceeds to retire preferred equity is negatively related to abnormal stock returns.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Capacity overhang and corporate disinvestment decisions

We use a stochastic frontier model to estimate a firm's capacity overhang. We find that excess capacity is positively related to a drop in new capital expenditures, an accumulation of depleted long-term assets, and outright sales of investment assets. However, the sale of long-term assets (property, plant, and equipment [PP&E]) peaks for intermediate levels of excess capacity and then declines. We attribute this to growth options. We test for evidence of a preference ordering in the firm's choice of responding to excess capacity and find evidence for a pecking order in firm disinvestment, where sales of long-term assets are a measure of last resort.     

Causes and effects of employee stock option plans: Evidence from Singapore

This study highlights the determinants for the adoption of employee stock option plans (ESOPs) in Singapore and measures the impact of ESOP announcements on the shareholder wealth of adopting companies. We find that ESOP value is positively associated with a firm's growth opportunities but negatively related to interest coverage. Although larger firms are more likely to adopt ESOPs relative to smaller ones, among those that use ESOPs, the larger firms tend to use less ESOPs than the smaller ones. A further investigation of the market response to the adoption of ESOPs shows that the stock price reacts positively to such announcements, suggesting that investors view ESOPs favorably. The evidence demonstrates that ESOPs tend to align managerial with shareholder interests and contribute to the improvement of company performance.     

Outperformance Certificates: analysis, pricing, interpretation, and performance

In this paper we introduce a new financial product named Outperformance Certificates. We study the €43 billion sample by examining 1,507 issues of the certificates outstanding in August 2005 issued by banks in Europe. We present formulas to price the certificates and empirically examine the profits in the primary market for issuing the certificates. We find that issuance of the certificates is profitable for the issuers in our sample. Issuers sell the certificate at prices 3–5 % above the fair value based upon the components of the underlying assets. We also find that the dividend yields and ex-dividend dates play an important role in the profitability of the certificates. The underlying securities tend to have high dividend yield and large market capitalization. We also find the certificates tend to mature soon after the ex-dividend dates of the underlying assets.