The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the adjustment mechanism in the euro area prior to the crisis. Results show that the real exchange rate adjusted to redress cyclical divergences and that after monetary unification, real exchange rate dynamics became less reactive to country-specific shocks but also less persistent. Regulations affecting price and wage nominal flexibility and employment protection play a role in the adjustment mechanism. Indicators of product and labour regulations appear to matter for both the reaction of price competitiveness to cyclical divergences and for the inertia of competitiveness indicators.     

Characterising Euro Area Multinationals

This study uses firm‐level data on a large sample of European manufacturing firms to investigate the links between opening up foreign affiliates and firms’ productivity. The analysis is guided by recent theoretical models of international trade with firm heterogeneity. The paper finds that while only a small share of euro area firms locate affiliates abroad, these firms account for over‐proportionally large shares of output, employment and profits in their home countries. They have higher survival rates and their productivity growth is also higher. The strongest contribution is by productivity growth of existing firms with a multinational status rather than entry into the multinational status. Finally, there are performance premia for multinationals with a large number of affiliates abroad relative to those with a small number.     

Determinants of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area

Euro area inflation has been rising strongly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving rise to concerns that there could be second-round effects, with higher inflation leading to higher inflation expectations, which in turn lead to higher inflation. This could result in more persistent rises in inflation.

     

Reflections on the Euro Area Fiscal Stance

Avoiding the mistakes of the past, when the good times were not used to build buffers, will be crucial to avoid countries again being forced to engage in a pro-cyclical fiscal tightening in the next downturn.     

The Euro Area Periphery Debt Conundrum

Intereconomics - There are many reasons to reform the Stability and Growth Pact, but that reform is no panacea. This is because the euro area periphery has increasingly entered a debt conundrum.     

The Prospects for Future Economic Growth in the Euro Area

With a long-term projection of TFP growth of 0.2 per cent, a gradual decline in the work-age population and a static average workweek, we project a "baseline" average real GDP growth rate in the euro area of just 0.6 per cent over the next decade — even if the unemployment rate and investment share of GDP return to their pre-crisis levels by 2020.     

Inflation Developments in the Euro Area Since the Onset of the Pandemic

There is hope that the Russian war on Ukraine could expedite the energy transition in Europe leading to a new and more environmentally sustainable steady state.

     

Some evidence on the role of money illusion in labor supply behavior

The Keynesian idea that workers are subject to money illusion in their labor supply decisions is tested by estimating a labor supply function that includes the price level as an independent variable. The model is estimated with data drawn from various BLS publications and is aggregated by SMSA. The results indicate a significant negative supply response to price-level changes after controlling for the nominal wage rate, income, and the SMSA's unemployment rate. There is no significant difference between workers' supply response to the price level and the nominal wage rate, which suggests that workers are not subject to money illusion.     

Preparations for the Euro by U.K. SMEs with Trading Links with the Euro Currency Area

This paper examines euro preparations by U.K. SMEs with trading links with the euro currency area. It suggests, notwithstanding the U.K.'s decision not to join the euro in the first wave, that SMEs with euro area trade links are particularly likely to have had to make some adjustments for the introduction of the euro. The paper assesses this level of preparation and seeks to understand if it is contingent upon the characteristics of the business, its geographic location, its business orientation and the type of trade link (e.g. importer/exporter). The paper finds, contrary to previous research, that business characteristics, geographic location and business orientation are, on the whole, of limited value in explaining euro preparation. What, instead, seems more significant is the type of link with the euro area: importers, exporters and those with subsidiary businesses in the euro area appear more likely to have made preparations for the euro than U.K. SMEs that are part of a euro supply-chain or are a subsidiary of a euro area business.     

我国货币供应量与经济增长的相关性探讨

货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系一直是学术界争论的焦点之一,但是,在这个问题上,各国政府却毫无异议地认为货币供应量与经济增长之间有明显的关系,调节经济增长也就成为各国中央银行货币政策目标之一。本文利用回归分析,就我国货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析,阐明自己的观点。     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the Euro Area During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Intereconomics - This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gross fixed capital formation across the euro area. The empirical analysis suggests that the intensity of the lockdown...     

Euro Area——Fiscal Squeeze,Export Boost

Some euro-area countries face a sharp fiscal squeeze- but they are in the minority Low real interest rates and a more competitive euro should benefit the core group of countries We expect the ECB to stay on hold until Q2-2011 and have lowered our 2011 growth forecast     

Low Interest Rates and Household Portfolio Behaviour in Euro Area Countries

This paper examines whether household portfolio structures change in favour of riskier assets when interest rates fall. Using euro area financial accounts data from the financial crisis through the present day, it is shown that the current low interest rate environment has not, up to this point, induced euro area households to add further risky assets to their investment portfolios.     

Supply or Demand,that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation

Intereconomics - This paper studies the recent trends in inflation in the euro area and estimates to what extent the current inflationary pressures are driven by demand expansion and by supply side...     

Governance of the Euro Area: Fiscal Union,Debt Union,Fiscal Freedom

Over the past three years, as the euro area has struggled with high levels of sovereign debt, it has been gradually developing into a debt union. However, this is not a sustainable arrangement. This article proposes two alternatives to a debt union — a fiscal union and a monetary union with fiscal freedom — and evaluates the pros and cons of each approach.     

Domesticating the Euro

Intereconomics - „We find the litmus test is whether governments gain access to a safe source of funding in a ‘domestic’ currency. Of the list of solutions considered, both Purple...     

Challenges of the Euro

Intereconomics - „The lesson from previous episodes of trade reform is in part a story of political framing as well as a story of compensatory deals. Countries can calculate that they might...