Taxes,risk taking,and financial stability

After the global financial crisis, the use of taxes to enhance financial stability received new attention. This paper analyzes the corrective role of taxes in banking and compares two instruments, namely, an allowance for corporate equity (ACE), which mitigates the debt bias in corporate taxation, and a Pigovian tax on bank debt (bank levy). We emphasize financial stability gains driven by lower bank asset risk and develop a principal-agent model, in which risk taking depends on the bank's capital structure and, by extension, on the tax treatment of debt and equity. We find that (i) the ACE unambiguously reduces risk taking, (ii) bank levies reduce risk taking if they are independent of bank performance but may be counterproductive otherwise, and (iii) taxes are especially effective if regulatory capital requirements are constrained to low levels.     

浅析金融全球化与中国银行业重构

任何事物都具有两重性,金融全球化对任何国家都是利弊共存的,本文先就金融全球化的定义和特点作简要地阐述,然后通过对其他学者研究结论进行分析,得出结论,一个国家是否能从金融全球化中受益,取决于国家具体环境和体制特征,而这其中最重要的是金融体制,由于中国是以银行为主导的金融体制,所以,银行业重构就成了这个问题的关键。得出结论后,通过分析中国目前银行业存在的主要问题,参照韩国银行业重构的成功经验.提出了相应的重构方案。     

Free banking and the stability of early joint-stock banking

Proponents of free banking argue that systems adopting theirpolicies will be stable. In this paper, we present evidencesuggesting that, in general, early joint-stock banking systemsdid not adopt free banking, and those that did proved to beunstable. In particular, we demonstrate that those systems imposingregulations were generally stable. We rationalise the successof regulation as a pragmatic solution to the time-inconsistencyproblem arising from the peculiar nature of the banking firm.Notably, we find that the ‘golden age’ of free bankingstability can be attributed to restrictions on the organisationalform of the early banking firm.     

Evaluating monetary policy with financial stability objective: rules vs. discretion

This article explores whether adding the goal of financial stability to the more traditional goals of output and price stability could improve optimality of monetary policy. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model that endogenously incorporates financial frictions is used to derive optimality conditions across rule-based and discretionary monetary policy environments. The results indicate that it is optimal for the Central Bank to keep output below the potential level in the short term so as to dampen the inflationary effects arising from supply and financial shocks. When the economy is exposed to a financial shock, both leverage and credit spread rise significantly, thereby tipping the economy into a financial crisis and raising the probability of macroeconomic risk.     

Competition and risk in South East Asian commercial banking

This article investigates the effects of competition on bank risk taking behaviour in four South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). Our main finding is that competition does not increase bank risk-taking behaviour and the results appear robust to different model specifications, estimation approaches and variable construction. We also find that concentration is inversely related to bank risk whereas regulatory restrictions positively influence bank risk-taking.     

开放进程中我国银行稳定的影响因素与稳定策略

20世纪80年代以来无论是发达的欧美国家,还是新兴市场国家的金融业都先后在经济开放中,发生了银行危机、货币危机等金融危机事件,尤其是银行危机给这些国家造成了沉重的经济损失.目前,我国银行业正处于全面开放阶段,如何在开放进程中保持我国银行稳定,是我国经济社会持续发展中的一项战略性课题.     

Predicting Banking Crises with Artificial Neural Networks: The Role of Nonlinearity and Heterogeneity

Studies of the early warning systems (EWSs) for banking crises usually rely on linear classifiers, estimated with international datasets. I construct an EWS based on an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and I also account for regional heterogeneity in order to improve the generalization ability of EWS models. All of the banking crises in my test set are then predictable at a 24‐month horizon, using information from earlier crises. For some countries, estimation with a regional dataset significantly improves the predictions. The ANN outperforms the usual logit regression, assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.     

Liberal economic nationalism,financial stability,and Commission leniency in Banking Union

This paper demonstrates that protection and promotion of insolvent banks remains a high priority for national authorities in Europe, and the Commission partially accommodates these impulses in the desire to preserve national financial stability. Insolvent banks are kept alive despite Banking Union rules on resolution designed to facilitate their closure at the cost of private investors. Italian and Portuguese cases demonstrate that pressure to relax state aid rules is strongest where problems are the greatest. However, the long-term trend is still an incremental decrease in national leeway to protect and promote national bank ownership.     

The effect of financial liberalization on banking sector stability

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization increases likelihood of a financial crisis without distinguishing between a normal period, unstable period preceding the onset of banking panics and crisis/post period. We explain in this paper the relationship between financial liberalization and banking sector vulnerability. Then, we argue that banking sector turmoil is most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of banking crisis for a sample of 49 countries between 1980 and 2010. We used a multinomial logit model in order to take into account what is called the ‘post crisis bias’. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking sector stability depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation and supervision. With very weak regulation and supervision, the probability of banking crises is increasing with liberalization but this relationship is reversed as regulation and supervision become significant. The most important type of liberalization in relation to banking crises seems to be operational. A policy implication is that positive growth effects of liberalization can be achieved without increasing the risk of a banking fragility if appropriate institutions are developed.     

Financial development and financial openness nexus: the precondition of banking competition

We examine the dynamic relationship between financial development and financial openness using the pooled mean group estimator developed by Pesaran et al. (1999). Our results show that financial openness has a positive effect on financial development in the long run, but may have a negative effect in the short run. Using estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that the adverse short-run effects of financial openness are associated with a lower degree of banking competition. The system GMM estimator also supports these findings, suggesting that the financial development and financial openness nexus is contingent on the degree of banking competition. A key policy implication is that a higher degree of banking competition is a precondition for financial openness to promote financial development.     

中国银行业竞争的外部性经济学溯源

中国金融业全面对外资开放,银行业的竞争格局面临重塑.分析了中国银行业竞争态势,揭示了中外银行业竞争格局异同的深层文化因素和外部性理论的起源及其在金融产业经济中的发展过程,提出外部性理论演进对中国银行业竞争的启示.     

The determinants and profitability of switching costs in Chinese banking

This article models the determinants of bank switching costs in China in terms of bank characteristics and non-bank variables. It also determines the contribution of switching costs to banks’ profits. Using a sample of 151 banks over the period 2003–2013 it reports a positive relationship between bank profitability and switching costs. The main result is that bank size measured by total assets has a complex relationship with switching costs. Competition between small banks creates the incentive for lock-in and increased switching costs whereas very large banks are less exercised by lock-in and switching costs.     

Information production, banking industry structure and credit allocation

We analyse credit allocation when limited-liable banks can engage in costly information production about borrowers. When perfectly diversified credit portfolios cannot be constructed, we show that credit allocation depends on bank capital and the number of banks that can operate in the same market. A concentrated banking industry, one where bank capital is held by few banks, is shown to lead to credit allocation closer to the social optimum. Moreover, in the absence of banking industry consolidation, we find that the removal of intra-state entry barriers reduces welfare and not all independent banking organizations that were viable in formerly protected markets remain so when markets are integrated.     

Directed credit,financial development and financial structure: theory and evidence

The recent initiative of the RBI in reviving the policy of directed credit allocation in a period dominated by the neoliberal philosophy necessitates reconsideration of the role of policy-directed credit allocation process on financial development and financial structure of firms. Introducing certain policy parameters, the paper attempts to model how financial development-financial structure interlinkage is influenced by the liberalization policies of the government. The theoretical construct is empirically verified using both aggregated and disaggregated (firm-level) data comprising a panel of 932 Indian manufacturing firms. Findings reveal that following the liberalization measures in the early 1990s, there has been a structural shift in the debt–equity ratio of firms, with equity market activities assuming prominence over time. As regards financial development, it has been observed that the withdrawal of DFIs specialized in term-lending activities in the early 2000s led to a significant increase in the degree of financing constraints faced by the manufacturing firms. This contradicts the basic premise of financial liberalization. The paper argues that under certain conditions, government intervention in the form of directed credit programmes would not only act as an effective instrument in ushering financial development, but also provide important guidelines in ensuring sustainability of institutions.     

中国银行体系关系型信贷的有效性——基于宣告效应的研究

在不对称信息下,关系型银行可以利用信息优势参与借款企业治理,降低代理成本.文章实证分析了1996-2008年中国上市公司发布获得银行信贷公告后的市场反应,发现上市公司发布获得银行授信和债务重组公告引起股价显著上涨,表明中国银行体系自1996年以来有意识地建立长期稳定的银企合作关系的政策具有治理效应.文章还发现,信息不对称程度越高、公司治理越差的公司,治理效应越显著.这种效应主要体现在贷前甄别企业质量和贷后救助方面,而在贷中监督企业机会主义行为,降低代理成本方面则没有体现.     

金融危机对巴塞尔新资本协议和商业银行风险管理的挑战

正在影响着世界的金融危机,在考验商业银行自身的风险管理能力的同时,也挑战了全球银行业赖以为标准的巴塞尔新资本协议。本文旨在从危机爆发的原因出发,封新资本协议关于银行的风险管理方面的规定进行分析,以及在金融全球化的大环境下,中国的银行业应该如何应对危机。     

Testing for profitability and contestability in banking: evidence from Austria

The paper investigates the determinants of banking profitability and banking market conditions in Austria. We conduct a panel econometric analysis which allows for testing the hypotheses which have become the most prominent in the literature on bank profitability: the structure–conduct–performance hypothesis, the efficient‐structure hypothesis and the relative market‐power hypothesis. Further, we test whether Austrian banking markets are, on average, contestable. A newly compiled dataset covering more than 700 Austrian banks ranging over the period from 1995 to 2002 is used to carry out these econometric analyses. The empirical findings support the view that the Austrian banks do exert, on average, some local market power. However, the gains in terms of excess profits are rather minor as a result of low deterrence powers of the incumbent banks.     

银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。     

WTO的挑战与银行业的改革

随着我国经济一体化进程的不断加快，中国加入WTO后，外资银行将凭借其雄厚的资本实力、健全的经营体制、丰富的融资品种和良好的人才结构，给我国整体竞争力较为低下的银行业带来巨大的冲击和挑战，但同时也会给我们带来一定的发展机遇。因此，我国银行业要以市场化为基本取向，进一步深化金融体制和融资模式改革，充实资本金、培育金融市场，创新金融服务，在渐进开放的过程中，充分发挥本土优势，努力提高我国银行业的整体竞争力。     

混业经营与金融体系稳定性:基于银行危机的全球实证分析

银行混业经营不仅关系到自身效率的提高,更关系到银行体系乃至整个金融体系的稳定性。对全球范围内61个国家的跨国数据进行的实证分析表明,一个国家对银行混业经营的限制越少,该国的金融体系越趋于稳定,发生银行危机的概率也越小。不仅如此,在宏观经济越不稳定的国家,其一般性银行危机演变为系统性银行危机的概率也越大。