浅析金融全球化与中国银行业重构

任何事物都具有两重性,金融全球化对任何国家都是利弊共存的,本文先就金融全球化的定义和特点作简要地阐述,然后通过对其他学者研究结论进行分析,得出结论,一个国家是否能从金融全球化中受益,取决于国家具体环境和体制特征,而这其中最重要的是金融体制,由于中国是以银行为主导的金融体制,所以,银行业重构就成了这个问题的关键。得出结论后,通过分析中国目前银行业存在的主要问题,参照韩国银行业重构的成功经验.提出了相应的重构方案。     

Free banking and the stability of early joint-stock banking

Proponents of free banking argue that systems adopting theirpolicies will be stable. In this paper, we present evidencesuggesting that, in general, early joint-stock banking systemsdid not adopt free banking, and those that did proved to beunstable. In particular, we demonstrate that those systems imposingregulations were generally stable. We rationalise the successof regulation as a pragmatic solution to the time-inconsistencyproblem arising from the peculiar nature of the banking firm.Notably, we find that the ‘golden age’ of free bankingstability can be attributed to restrictions on the organisationalform of the early banking firm.     

Competition and risk in South East Asian commercial banking

This article investigates the effects of competition on bank risk taking behaviour in four South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). Our main finding is that competition does not increase bank risk-taking behaviour and the results appear robust to different model specifications, estimation approaches and variable construction. We also find that concentration is inversely related to bank risk whereas regulatory restrictions positively influence bank risk-taking.     

Financial development and financial openness nexus: the precondition of banking competition

We examine the dynamic relationship between financial development and financial openness using the pooled mean group estimator developed by Pesaran et al. (1999). Our results show that financial openness has a positive effect on financial development in the long run, but may have a negative effect in the short run. Using estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that the adverse short-run effects of financial openness are associated with a lower degree of banking competition. The system GMM estimator also supports these findings, suggesting that the financial development and financial openness nexus is contingent on the degree of banking competition. A key policy implication is that a higher degree of banking competition is a precondition for financial openness to promote financial development.     

中国银行业竞争的外部性经济学溯源

中国金融业全面对外资开放,银行业的竞争格局面临重塑.分析了中国银行业竞争态势,揭示了中外银行业竞争格局异同的深层文化因素和外部性理论的起源及其在金融产业经济中的发展过程,提出外部性理论演进对中国银行业竞争的启示.     

Directed credit,financial development and financial structure: theory and evidence

The recent initiative of the RBI in reviving the policy of directed credit allocation in a period dominated by the neoliberal philosophy necessitates reconsideration of the role of policy-directed credit allocation process on financial development and financial structure of firms. Introducing certain policy parameters, the paper attempts to model how financial development-financial structure interlinkage is influenced by the liberalization policies of the government. The theoretical construct is empirically verified using both aggregated and disaggregated (firm-level) data comprising a panel of 932 Indian manufacturing firms. Findings reveal that following the liberalization measures in the early 1990s, there has been a structural shift in the debt–equity ratio of firms, with equity market activities assuming prominence over time. As regards financial development, it has been observed that the withdrawal of DFIs specialized in term-lending activities in the early 2000s led to a significant increase in the degree of financing constraints faced by the manufacturing firms. This contradicts the basic premise of financial liberalization. The paper argues that under certain conditions, government intervention in the form of directed credit programmes would not only act as an effective instrument in ushering financial development, but also provide important guidelines in ensuring sustainability of institutions.     

Information production, banking industry structure and credit allocation

We analyse credit allocation when limited-liable banks can engage in costly information production about borrowers. When perfectly diversified credit portfolios cannot be constructed, we show that credit allocation depends on bank capital and the number of banks that can operate in the same market. A concentrated banking industry, one where bank capital is held by few banks, is shown to lead to credit allocation closer to the social optimum. Moreover, in the absence of banking industry consolidation, we find that the removal of intra-state entry barriers reduces welfare and not all independent banking organizations that were viable in formerly protected markets remain so when markets are integrated.     

中国银行体系关系型信贷的有效性——基于宣告效应的研究

在不对称信息下,关系型银行可以利用信息优势参与借款企业治理,降低代理成本.文章实证分析了1996-2008年中国上市公司发布获得银行信贷公告后的市场反应,发现上市公司发布获得银行授信和债务重组公告引起股价显著上涨,表明中国银行体系自1996年以来有意识地建立长期稳定的银企合作关系的政策具有治理效应.文章还发现,信息不对称程度越高、公司治理越差的公司,治理效应越显著.这种效应主要体现在贷前甄别企业质量和贷后救助方面,而在贷中监督企业机会主义行为,降低代理成本方面则没有体现.     

金融危机对巴塞尔新资本协议和商业银行风险管理的挑战

正在影响着世界的金融危机,在考验商业银行自身的风险管理能力的同时,也挑战了全球银行业赖以为标准的巴塞尔新资本协议。本文旨在从危机爆发的原因出发,封新资本协议关于银行的风险管理方面的规定进行分析,以及在金融全球化的大环境下,中国的银行业应该如何应对危机。     

银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。     

WTO的挑战与银行业的改革

随着我国经济一体化进程的不断加快,中国加入WTO后,外资银行将凭借其雄厚的资本实力、健全的经营体制、丰富的融资品种和良好的人才结构,给我国整体竞争力较为低下的银行业带来巨大的冲击和挑战,但同时也会给我们带来一定的发展机遇。因此,我国银行业要以市场化为基本取向,进一步深化金融体制和融资模式改革,充实资本金、培育金融市场,创新金融服务,在渐进开放的过程中,充分发挥本土优势,努力提高我国银行业的整体竞争力。     

Path modelling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis

This article studies the bankruptcy of US banks since 2009. It first analyses the financial symptoms that precede bankruptcy, such as low profitability, insufficient revenue or low solvency ratios. It also goes into the causes of these symptoms. It poses several hypotheses on causes of failure, such as loan growth (some of them risky), specialization (in this case concentration in real estate) and the pursuit of a turnover-driven strategy neglecting margin. It presents and tests a structural equation modelling based on partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) and logistic regression. Results show that, 5 years before the crisis, failed banks had, compared to solvent banks, the following: higher loan growth, higher concentration on real estate loans, higher risk ratios, higher turnover, but lower margins. A relationship is found between symptoms and causes. Failed banks present a significant relationship between the percentage of real estate loans and risk. This relationship is negative in excellent banks, confirming that they allocated less real estate loans with a high quality. Nonfailed banks compensated increases in risk by strengthening their core capital.     

居民储蓄率与金融风险

以间接融资为主的独特金融结构决定了我国金融体系的稳定性对于银行体系从而高储蓄率的依赖。因而,研究我国居民储蓄率的决定因素以及其波动趋势并在宏观调控层面予以关注、监控就应成为防范金融风险的重要举措。     

我国商业银行投资银行业务的创新与发展

加入WTO之后,国外金融集团利用其在人才、产品及混业经营等方面的优势,为国内客户提供综合性的金融服务,给国内商业银行带来了激烈的竞争。面对国外混业经营的强烈冲击和严峻挑战,发展我国商业银行投资银行业务势在必行,如何寻求投资银行的业务发展模式并取得的突破,这是摆在我国各商业银行面前的一个共同问题。     

全面开放后中外银行竞争态势的比较分析

银行业全面开放后,外资银行的竞争优势主要来自于其中间业务收入、风险管理能力以及先进的激励机制所吸引的人才资源.未来两年内,外资银行在中国的竞争策略将有所变化,将侧重一些市场和业务领域的拓展.中资银行应通过自身的发展和完善,加强合作,不断提升竞争能力,以应对外资银行的挑战.     

Risk management and dynamic network performance: an illustration using a dual banking system

This study applies dynamic network data envelopment analysis to compare a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic banks, with emphasis on risk measures. Non-oriented, variable return-to-scale dynamic network slacks-based measure is used to model the banking performance for the period 2008–2012. Under the consideration of risk measures, the findings highlight that Islamic banks excel in managerial efficiency while conventional banks surpass in profitability efficiency. Furthermore, the regression results find that the number of directors on the risk management committee has a positive impact on banking performance. Meanwhile, the high number of independent directors improves the profitability efficiency but worsens the managerial efficiency.     

中国财政金融支持农民收入增长的效率比较与完善措施

改革开放30年来,各级政府和金融机构对中国农业与农村经济的发展给予了重要的资金支持,有力地促进了农业生产与非农经济的发展,从而使农民收入有了显著提高。但实证分析表明,长期以来,我国金融支持与农民收入增长之间存在着低效率的关系。短期看,金融机构信贷对促进农民收入增长有一定的作用,而财政的作用则不明显。今后可通过加快财政支农资金的整合过程,提高政策性金融对农村的支持力度,推进开发性金融的发展等措施强化财政与金融对农民收入可持续增长的积极作用。     

The persistence of profits in banking: an international comparison

This article examines the dynamics of bank profitability in the USA, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland over the period 1993–2014. We find long-run bank profit persistence in all six countries in the period before the financial crisis in 2008. Banks with large capital ratios are persistently more profitable, and there is little evidence of a link between bank size and the persistence of bank profits. Commercial (saving) banks are persistently more (less) profitable in four of the six countries. The effects of the financial crisis in 2008 differed dramatically across countries as well as across ownership types. While US banks experienced dramatic declines in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, they recovered much faster than their European counterparts and essentially retain their long run profit potential by the year 2014.     

Imperfect competition in financial markets and capital structure

We consider a model of corporate finance with imperfectly competitive financial intermediaries. Firms can finance projects either via debt or via equity. Because of asymmetric information about firms’ growth opportunities, equity financing involves a dilution cost. Nevertheless, equity emerges in equilibrium whenever financial intermediaries have sufficient market power. In the latter case, best firms issue debt while the less profitable firms are equity-financed. We also show that strategic interaction between oligopolistic intermediaries results in multiple equilibria. If one intermediary chooses to buy more debt, the price of debt decreases, so the best equity-issuing firms switch from equity to debt financing. This in turn decreases average quality of equity-financed pool, so other intermediaries also shift towards more debt.     

中国商业银行市场集中度影响因素及趋势研究

中国商业银行市场集中度影响因素中,期初集中度、外资银行进入、并购、市场需求成长率与效率变量对集中度的影响为负,而产品差异度与集中度不相关。对趋势的分析表明中国商业银行市场集中度将会经历一个由下降到上升的过程,但是其持续的时间将取决于中国经济金融市场化的深度与速度。