住房抵押贷款理性违约的决策分析

住房抵押贷款中的违约是指借款人不再继续履行贷款合同,停止偿还贷款,造成贷款拖欠给贷款机构带来贷款风险的行为。违约发生的原因有:一是被动违约,指借款人因生病、失业等原因造成收入下降或开支增加,无能力继续履行贷款合同而引起的违约行为;二是理性违约,指借款人发现中止贷款合同,选择违约在经济上更有利的一种主动违约行为。     

国家助学贷款违约风险分担机制研究

违约风险分担机制不合理是我国国家助学贷款连约率过高的主要原因之一.从目前的助学贷款违约风险分担机制来看,政府承担的风险责任较小、高校承担的风险责任较大、而银行则承担违约风险的"兜底"责任.根据"风险与收益对等"原则,设计了新的国家助学贷款违约风险分担方案,新方案降低了风险易发区内高校和银行的风险责任、增大了政府的风险责任,从而实现风险责任的合理分配、提高各贷款受益人的风险管理意识.而生源地贷款、助学贷款信用保险、助学贷款的证券化等社会化方法,引入了更多的潜在受益人分担助学贷款的违约风险责任,也有效地降低了违约风险的发生.     

动态

佳兆业风波牵连汇丰银行:4亿港元贷款本息已违约深圳房地产龙头企业佳兆业集团日前公告称,未能偿还汇丰银行提供的4亿港元融资贷款。这是该司董事会主席郭英成辞职触发的强制性提前还款。该司称此次违约可能导致有关贷款融资、债券、股本证券的交叉违约,这是2015年中国资本市场首例违约。     

个人住房抵押贷款违约相关变量选择

文章主要从三个维度对个人住房抵押贷款违约相关变量选择进行了论述。在微观层面梳理个人住房抵押贷款违约特征变量是建立评分模型的重要步骤。文章基于借款人特征、贷款特性、房产特征三个维度构建了个人住房抵押贷款违约相关变量选择的分析框架。     

基于MCLP模型的个人住房抵押贷款违约风险研究

个人住房抵押贷款一旦出现大规模的违约便会对金融体系的稳定和宏观经济的平稳运行带来很大的负面影响。通过对我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款真实数据进行分析,分离出可能对贷款履约产生影响的个人基本情况、个人信用状况以及贷款合约等15项指标。在此基础上,使用MCLP模型构建了个人住房抵押贷款违约风险模型,并比较了MCLP模型与传统Logistic模型的预测结果,发现前者具有更高的准确度。最后,基于研究结论提出了相关建议。     

美国高等学校助学贷款违约管理措施及借鉴

我国国家助学贷款政策需要向有完整的学生贷款违约管理体系的美国进行借鉴。美国高校对学生贷款违约负有一定责任,为此,他们建立了专门机构进行管理。我国校园地贷款和生源贷款具有互补性,应该发挥这两种的长处,建立学校对贷款学生的诚信教育常态机制,学生离校前进行偿还贷款的提示,对学生进行还款方式辅导,建立学生贷款违约率与学校管理责任的连接机制。     

国家助学贷款的博弈分析

国家助学贷款政策自出台至今出现了学生违约率高、银行追缴困难、高校声誉受损等一系列问题,本文试图通过对国家助学贷款在银行和学生间的博弈分析,提出应降低银行追缴成本,提高学生贷款违约代价,加大违约惩罚力度等办法,促使学生按期还款。     

国外住房抵押贷款风险防范研究及实践

近几年来我国个人住房抵押贷款业务呈快速上升态势，随着贷款规模的不断扩大，个人住房抵押贷款的违约风险正在不断增大，违约风险的防范已被提到议事日程。本文较系统地介绍了国外对借款者违约行为的研究成果以及风险防范措施，以期对我国个人住房抵押贷款的风险防范和该业务的发展有所借鉴。     

基于宏观压力测试方法的商业银行体系信用风险评估

本文以贷款违约率作为评估银行系统信用风险的指标,使用Logit模型将贷款违约率转化为综合指标Y,以指标Y作为因变量与宏观经济因素进行多元线性回归分析,通过假设情境法进行宏观压力测试,定量分析宏观经济因素波动对中国银行体系贷款违约率的影响.研究结果显示:名义国内生产总值、消费者价格指数、真实房地产价格指数和名义流动贷款利率对银行体系贷款违约率的影响显著.本文构建了两种宏观经济极端情境--名义国内生产总值大幅下降和通货膨胀率骤升,在这两种情境设定下,银行体系的贷款违约率都出现了不同程度的大幅度提高.     

论房价波动下抵押贷款理性违约风险管理策略

当前的房价波动触发了住房抵押贷款理性违约行为发生率的明显增加。本文在分析住宅抵押贷款理性违约行为发生机理的基础上,分别从微观(商业银行)及宏观(相关制度和政策)两个层面提出了住宅抵押贷款理性违约风险管理策略。     

Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies

In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of private loans as a supplementary source of finance for households׳ higher education investment. A critical aspect of the private market for student loans is that loan terms must reflect students׳ risk of default. College investment will therefore differ from a world in which government student loans, whose terms are not sensitive to credit risk, are expanded to no longer bind. Moreover, beyond simply crowding out private lending, expansions of the government student loan program will feed back into default risk on private loans. The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the likely effects of the private market for student loans on college enrollment. We build a model of college investment that reflects uninsured idiosyncratic risk and a well-defined life-cycle that is consistent with observed borrowing and default behavior across family income and college preparedness. We find that higher government borrowing limits increase college investment but lead to more default in the private market for student loans, while tuition subsides increase college investment and reduce default rates in the private market. Consequently, higher limits on government student loans have small negative welfare effects, while tuition subsidies increase aggregate welfare.     

STUDENT DEBT EFFECTS ON FINANCIAL WELL‐BEING: RESEARCH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Reviewing the data regarding effects of student debt on students’ financial outcomes following college – whether successful graduation or premature exit – makes clear that there is a price to pay for having to borrow money to go to college. Indebted college graduates have lower net worth, less home equity, and compromised ability to accumulate assets, as compared to their peers with the same level of education but no student debt. They may also experience poorer educational outcomes, with independent effects on earning power and, then, later wealth accumulation. Especially given the relationship between initial household wealth and children's later educational outcomes, these findings about the post‐college financial outcomes of indebted students and graduates raise the specter of ongoing, sustained, and cross‐generational perpetuation of societal divides. In the United States, higher education is valued not just as a good in itself, but also as a means to the end of greater economic security and the primary lever for economic mobility. Evaluating student loans through this lens underscores the long‐term, volatile, and often hidden effects of student loan dependence and raises the stakes for consideration of alternative approaches to higher education finance.     

小额贷款公司存在的问题及建议——对郎溪银达小额贷款公司试点进展情况的调查

本文通过对郎溪银达小额贷款公司试点进展情况的调查,以银达小额贷款公司业务开展情况,分析了小额贷款公司存在的人员素质和贷款技术、资本实力和风险集中、小额贷款经营和监管等方面的问题,并提出了一些相应的解决方法,希望对小额贷款公司存在的问题提供一些建议。     

Valuation of stock loans with jump risk

A stock loan is a special loan with stocks as collateral, which offers the borrowers the right to redeem the stocks on or before the maturity (Xia and Zhou, 2007, Dai and Xu, 2011). We investigate pricing problems of both infinite- and finite-maturity stock loans under a hyper-exponential jump diffusion model. In the infinite-maturity case, we derive closed-form formulas for stock loan prices and deltas by solving the related optimal stopping problem explicitly. Moreover, we obtain a sufficient and necessary condition under which the optimal stopping time is finite with probability one. In the finite-maturity case, we provide analytical approximations to both stock loan prices and deltas by solving an ordinary integro-differential equation as well as a complicated non-linear system. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the approximation methods for both prices and deltas are accurate, fast, and easy to implement.     

关于规范房地产抵押贷款估价工作的思考

目前房地产抵押现已成为人们购房或融资的首选方式,因此对房地产抵押评估工作进行合理的规范,具有重要意义。本文就此问题进行了详细的探讨。     

The role of income tax in student loan repayments

West keeps score of the continuing and growing inadequacies of the British student loan scheme to 1998 and shows how an income-contingent loan could better satisfy its aims. He explores a common objection to any form of student loan scheme, that students pay for their university education through progressive income taxes. West shows how this argument falls short, and hence that some form of income contingent loan is required if equity and efficiency are to be satisfied.     

浅析高校在国家助学贷款政策实施中的角色重新定位

国家助学贷款是银行发放的用于全日制高等学校在校生支付学费和生活费的贷款。在国家助学贷款的具体实施过程中,高校作为学生和银行的桥梁,每年要向经办银行交纳一定数额的风险补偿金来为学生贷款作担保。然而近年来持续走低的还款率给各高校带来负担,使我们不得不深思高校在助学贷款中角色的转变,给高校的多重角色重新定位。本文在对某高校助学贷款的具体实施进行调查的基础上,提出了高校在助学贷款实施中的多重角色的转变,其中包括淡化担保者角色,丰富教育者及协助者角色的内涵,并提出在各种角色中高校的具体职责。     

商业银行国家助学贷款之风险分析

文章着重论述了国家助学贷款的信贷风险问题,指出国家助学贷款是一种财政贴息无担保的信用贷款,是一项公共政策;提出防范助学贷款的信贷风险,需要构建以国家征信体系为基础的社会诚信环境,完善全国性的个人征信信息系统,大力推广生源地贷款,创建助学贷款的风险管理系统。     

银行不良贷款违约损失率结构特征研究

本文对中国银行业面临的信用风险违约损失率(LGD)展开研究,以温州某商业银行不良贷款数据为样本,通过描述性统计,对LGD的结构特征:信用风险暴露规模特征、期限特征、地域特征以及担保特征等进行了详细分析。结果表明LGD与风险暴露规模呈负相关,LGD与贷款期限呈正相关,不同地域、不同担保方式的违约贷款其LGD差异性显著。以上这些结论可为商业银行信用风险管理、信贷投放导向以及信用风险监管提供现实帮助。     

Financial innovation and bank behavior: Evidence from credit markets

This paper investigates whether, and through which channel, the active use of credit derivatives changes bank behavior in the credit market, and how this channel was affected by the crisis of 2007–2009. Our principal finding is that banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives charge significantly lower corporate loan spreads, while banks׳ net positions are not consistently related to loan pricing. We argue that this is consistent with banks passing on risk management benefits to corporate borrowers but not with alternative channels through which credit derivative use may affect loan pricing. We also find that the magnitude of the risk management effect remained unchanged during the crisis period of 2007–2009. In addition, banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives cut their lending by less than other banks during the crisis and have consistently lower loan charge-offs. In sum, our study is suggestive of significant risk management benefits from financial innovations that persist under adverse conditions – that is, when they matter most.