Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree

A state space has been assumed as a primitive for modeling uncertainty, which presumes that the analyst knows all the uncertainties a decision maker (DM) perceives. This is problematic because states are private information of the DM, and hence are not directly observable to the analyst. Dekel et al. [Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space, Econometrica 69 (2001) 891-934] derive, rather than assume, the subjective state space from preference over suitable choice objects.In a dynamic setting, a decision tree, that is, a pair consisting of a state space and a filtration, has been taken as a primitive. This assumption is also problematic—a decision tree should be derived rather than assumed as a primitive. We formulate a three-stage extension of the above literature in order to model a DM who anticipates subjective uncertainty to be resolved gradually over time. We identify also subjective beliefs on the subjective state space.     

A theory of Bayesian decision making with action-dependent subjective probabilities

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes’ rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker’s prior and posterior beliefs.     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.     

A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of household’s ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.     

A mechanism for eliciting a probability distribution

This work extends Karni’s direct revelation mechanism for eliciting agents’ subjective beliefs over the distribution of a random variable.     

A perspective on psychology and economics

This essay provides a perspective on the recent trend towards integrating psychology into economics. Some specific topics are discussed briefly, and arguments are provided for why greater psychological realism will improve mainstream economics.     

A subjective model of experimentation

Typically an experiment is defined by a set of possible signals and a likelihood function, and both are specified exogenously—they are taken to be observable by the analyst. This paper renders them subjective by showing that they may be derived from suitable choice behavior. This is done in the context of an axiomatic representation theorem for preference on a suitable domain.     

A decision support system for financial and social investment

This article proposes a decision-making model that assesses the different aspects associated to Social Venture Capital (SVC) investment decisions. SVC companies buy shares of investee companies, valued according to financial and social aspects. The proposed model includes three main factors: the previous experience with the company (the past); its financial information and intangible assets (the present); and the proposed project, considering financial and social criteria (the future). The model has 26 criteria and 160 indicators, prioritized by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP simplifies a complex problem using a hierarchical analysis methodology, which enables subjective judgements among different criteria. The model has been tested in a given SVC company. Its development is explained in this article.     

A rent-seeking perspective on privatization

This paper considers the recent wave of privatization activity as a consequence of rent-seeking among competing special-interest or pressure groups. The dynamic interaction of interest groups through a political system generates repetitive, irregular waves or cycles of rent-creation, rent-transfer and, ultimately, rent-dissipation as the essence of the political process that determines transitory political outcomes (legislation, administrative decisions, as judicial interpretations). This perspective is used as a framework for speculation about the general and county-specific determinants of the worldwide upswing in privatization activity and the differences in privitization experiences of countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom.     

A theory of subjective compound lotteries

We develop a Savage-type model of choice under uncertainty in which agents identify uncertain prospects with subjective compound lotteries. Our theory permits issue preference; that is, agents may not be indifferent among gambles that yield the same probability distribution if they depend on different issues. Hence, we establish subjective foundations for the Anscombe-Aumann framework and other models with two different types of probabilities. We define second-order risk as risk that resolves in the first stage of the compound lottery and show that uncertainty aversion implies aversion to second-order risk which implies issue preference and behavior consistent with the Ellsberg paradox.     

The multiple perspective concept : With applications to technology assessment and other decision areas

In the area of sociotechnological systems the science/technology based paradigms of analysis haver serious limitations. Building on the work of Graham Allison, we explore the use of multiple perspectives to develop greater insights; specifically, an organizational/societal perspective and a personal/individual perspective augment the conventional “technical” perspective. Application of the three perspectives to several technology assessments and other complex decision areas indicates that the concept can effectively narrow the gap between model and reality for decision making.

Section I describes the background leading to the study and Section II focuses on the limitations of the traditional perspective. Section III develops the multiple perspectives and Section IV summarizes illustrations and applications to date. The concluding section (V) offers guidelines to assist assessors, forecasters, policy analysts, and other users.     

A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models

A prediction formula for geometrically declining sums of future forcing variables is derived for models in which the forcing variables are generated by a vector autoregressive-moving average process. This formula is useful in deducing and characterizing cross-equation restrictions implied by linear rational expectations models.     

A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880–2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using structural time series models, we conclude that since in most cases non-stationarity can be rejected, longer-run fiscal sustainability is not rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same is true for a panel analysis when allowing for multiple structural breaks, and for cross-country dependence. In addition, endogenously identified breaks can be related to episodes of sovereign default.     

A macroeconomic perspective on Knowledge Management

This paper provides a theory of the interactions between knowledge codification, firm-level organization structures, information diffusion and the dynamics of technological competition. At the firm level, we focus on incentives to design Knowledge Management policies based on the codification of soft into hard information. At the aggregate level, we discuss the endogenous nature of knowledge spillover and the implications for macroeconomic growth. The model predicts the existence of a bell shaped relationship between knowledge codification and technological competition.     

A polarization-cohesion perspective on cross-country convergence

Understanding whether the gap between rich and poor country wellbeing is narrowing is really about whether rich and poor groups can be identified in the overall size distribution of the characteristic of interest, and how those respective subgroup size distributions are changing. Here two simple statistics for analyzing the issue are introduced which are capable of discerning, in many dimensions, changes in the underlying distributions which reflect combinations of increasing (decreasing) subgroup location differences and decreasing (increasing) subgroup spreads, which are the characteristics of polarization (de-polarization). When applied in an examination of the distribution of lifetime GDP per capita over time, the population weighted version exhibits de-polarization and the unweighted version exhibits polarization. As a collection of countries, Africa is diverging from the rest of the world regardless of the weighting scheme.     

A new perspective on price indices

We propose a new definition of price indices. If the utility function is homothetic, it reduces to the usual definitions. If not, it satisfies all of Fisher's (1992) tests.     

A portmanteau experiment on the relevance of individual decision anomalies for households

Although households are responsible for many important decisions, they have rarely been the subject of economics experiments. We conduct a series of linked and incentivized experiments on decision-making, designed to see if the anomalies typically found in individual choice experiments are found when the subjects are couples from long-term relationships. Specifically we investigate the endowment effect, the compromise effect, asymmetric dominance and the ‘more is less’ phenomena. Comparing the results with two control groups (students and non-student individuals) we find broadly the same pattern of anomalies in individuals as we do in couples. Thus behavioural patterns that appear in individual choices appear relevant for decisions made by established couples.