What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?

Recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns. This has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour. This paper presents a review of this literature. A variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment, the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty. A general conclusion is that increased uncertainty, at both aggregate and disaggregate levels, leads to lower investment rates. This suggests that there is an irreversibility effect, under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the 'call option' to delay a commitment to investment. This effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertainty, under certain circumstances, increases the marginal profitability of capital. The methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings, and these are addressed in the paper. However, if such irreversibility effects are present, then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications. JEL Classification: D81, D92, E22     

Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's economy firms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a finite life. The present paper studies investment projects with finite project life, and we find that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens at low levels of uncertainty and when project life is short.     

不确定条件下旅游投资决策分析方法的对比与应用

已有的基于风险的LCCBA中的收益概率模型构建需要较多的案例数据积累,而目前我国旅游投资决策分析总体上处于起步阶段,缺少相应的数据积累。本文对比分析各种现有投资决策分析方法之后,得出基于Shackle模型的不确定条件下的旅游投资决策方法更适用于我国当前的旅游投资分析,并通过Monte Carlo仿真的方法分析了该方法的有效性。不同于基于风险的LCCBA,该方法不需构建完整的收益概率模型,仅需估算出收益分布范围,就可以客观地对投资项目进行经济性分析,因而更适用于我国当前情况下的旅游投资决策分析。     

Optimal Timing of Foreign Direct Investment Under Uncertainty

Foreign-trade zone (FTZ) use by international marketers vrovides them with the mlential to gain cost savings and increak operating efficiencies. However, no empirical research has yet been conducted to examine whether operating cost efficiency is better for international marketers using FTZs (FTZ firms) than those not using FTZs (non-FTZ firms). The operating cost efficiency of FTZ and non-FIZ firms is examined through a comparison of their cost structures. Using translog production functions, the surprising results in this paper suggest that FTZ firms tend to be less efficient than non-FTZ firms. Some possible explanations for this result are advanced, and public policy implications are discussed.     

The effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options: Evidence from listed companies in China (1998–2019)

We empirically investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options using the financial data of listed firms in China from 1998 to 2019. We reveal three key findings in this paper. First, we find that oil price uncertainty has a U-shaped nonlinear effect on corporate investment. In periods of low uncertainty, oil price uncertainty negatively influences corporate investment. However, in periods of high uncertainty, oil price uncertainty positively influences corporate investment. Second, research has found that the U-shaped nonlinear effect is moderated by the irreversibility and growth opportunities of investment decisions. Third, further analyses reveal that this U-shaped nonlinear effect can be changed by a firm’s characteristics. Specifically, this nonlinear effect can only be observed in non-state-owned enterprises and small firms. We test the robustness of our findings and propose several policy suggestions.     

我国企业在新形势下对外投资的探讨

当前，国际直接投资的急剧发展，对我国经济的影响力日益扩大．我国企业必须顺应经济发展的潮流，积极发展对外投资，有效利用各种资源，才能不断提高自己的竞争力。为此，我国企业要调整对外投资的发展策略，提高投资效益，这将成为我国企业长远发展的战略选择。     

产权保护、信贷机会、所有权结构与公司投资——来自中国制造业企业的经验数据

本文以2002年中国制造业企业的经验数据为样本,在控制了相关微观企业变量与宏观城市变量的基础上,对公司投资支出与产权保护、信贷机会、所有权结构之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,公司投资支出与保护企业财产权利的产权保护因素及所有权结构显著相关,但使用该样本回归分析中信贷机会的作用则不明朗,这可能与样本采集年份的国家政策有一定关联。建议完善保护企业财产权利司法体制、加强促进公司投资的制度建设,同时尽快缩小转型经济期间对不同所有制企业的区别对待等。     

Governing Networks in the Hollow State: Contracting out,process management or a combination of the two?

The hollow state is characterized by governing through networks. In this article, we explore the nature of the hollow state and trace and illustrate three basic uncertainties in the decision-making process which create complexity: knowledge uncertainty, institutional uncertainty and strategic uncertainty. Next, we elaborate the main characteristics of contracting out and address the issue of whether these fit the nature of the hollow state. Finally, we ask if the role of politicians should change given the characteristics of the hollow state. We conclude with some thoughts on effective management in the hollow state and the role of process management and contracting out.     

国有企业审计监督体系构建研究

在我国现行国有资产管理体制下,国有企业不仅要接受国有资产监管体系内部多种形式的监督,而且还要同时接受政府审计、社会审计和内部审计的监督。由于各种审计主体职责重复、各自为政,在导致审计资源严重浪费的同时,还造成许多国有企业长期缺乏有效的审计监督。本文从我国国有资产监管体系的现行架构出发,对政府审计、社会审计、内部审计及其他多种审计主体的分工与配合问题进行了研究,为国有企业建立合理有效的审计监督体系提供参考。     

Environmental regulation, technological diversity, and the dynamics of technological change

Inducing technological progress is an important objective of environmental regulation. We investigate under which conditions regulation-induced technological progress pursues the best technological option. We analyze a setting with vertical and horizontal technological progress, cost uncertainty, time-limited patent protection, and a case that is typical for some emissi4on-intensive industries, like electricity generation or the chemical industry. Under taxes and standards, only the current least-cost technology is used and developed, implying a lock-in into a possibly inferior technology. Tradable permits yield slower progress but can facilitate the simultaneous development of technologies, rendering lock-ins less likely.     

流动性约束下我国居民消费行为的二元结构与地区差异

本文构建了状态空间模型和跨省面板数据模型,就不确定性和流动性约束等对我国居民消费行为影响进行比较分析,结果表明:1978年以来,收入的不确定性对城镇居民消费行为的负面影响要大于农村居民;城镇居民面临的流动性约束相对小于农村居民;城镇居民面对利率的替代效应要大于收入效应,而农村居民与之相反。1995年以来,收入和支出的不确定性对我国居民整体消费行为的影响并不显著,但与东中部地区居民消费变动正相关;我国居民消费面临的流动约束整体来看并不严重,但中部地区居民相对而言面临更强的流动性约束。     

Charitable donations by China’s private enterprises

The number of private enterprises in China has grown rapidly, and donations from them are an important source of philanthropy in China today. This paper investigates donations made by private enterprises in 2011 using a survey of data covering all 31 provincial-level units of China. The data show that philanthropy practised by Chinese private enterprises is widespread, but the amounts of donations are unequally distributed. Furthermore, donations are positively related to a company’s profit and in most cases also to the owner’s political participation as expressed in membership in the People’s Congress (PC) as well as the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) at different levels. Donating is also positively related to the presence of a branch of the Communist Party of China and a trade union within the firm. In contrast, there is little support for donations being related to the characteristics of the major owner of the business, such as their gender, age, previous employment experience, party membership or to the governance structure or location of the private firms.     

Manpower restructuring in the state-owned railway industry of China: the role of the state in human resource strategy

Twenty years after it first opened its door to foreign enterprises, one of the greatest challenges facing the Chinese government today is the reform of the state-owned enterprise sectors (which make up half of the country's GDP) in order to make them more efficient. This paper intends to describe and then critically assess a number of major human resource policies introduced in the state-owned railway enterprise (one of the biggest enterprises) in China in its recent manpower reform (downsizing). Through the case of the railway company, a wider picture is revealed of the country's changing employment policy and practice as well as its emerging labour market. In particular, problems relating to human resources such as skill, remuneration, and training are highlighted at both organization and national level. As the reality of 'life-long employment' comes to an end, the notion of 'life-long learning' has been given a high profile in government policy decisions. What, then, has been and is the role of the state in 'creating' and resolving these problems as an employer and as a state governor?     

浅议不确定性会计若干问题

在会计领域,要求在提供会计信息的同时考虑不确定性,以使会计信息更加具有可靠性和相关性。不确定性会计是"会计的一部分",正因为会计中存在着"不确定性",要对这些业务进行会计处理,就必须研究不确定性会计,对不确定性会计问题进行系统的分析,以期为不确定性经济业务的会计处理,构建一个理论框架。