The Brazilian Mobile Telephoning Market and Its Indicators of Non-quality

This article aims to scale the Brazilian mobile phone market as the number of active lines, carriers participation in the market and teledensity, as well as presenting the main non-quality indicators and rankings of carriers in relation to complaints registered by users. The methodology used was ＂survey＂ with documentary research, enabled through access to the database of the Brazilian National Telecommunications Agency~-ANATEL, and Sindec Report developed by the Brazilian National Secretary of the Consumer--SENACON. The results obtained showed a Brazil of had a teledensity of 132.78 lines every 100 inhabitants, with 261 million mobile lines active, these 19 million enabled in 2012. The leadership of the company ＂Vivo＂ with 29.08% of marketshare and shows the lowest rate of complaints among the big four carriers （Vivo, TIM, Claro, and Oi M6vel） according to the data of Anatel. SENACON data already confirm the big four carriers among the 10 conglomerates more defendants in claims in Brazil. As the indicators of non-quality, the Act of Misappropriation was pointed to by users as the biggest problem in contracted services.     

Evaluating the Relative Innovative Position of European Union Member Countries: An Empirical Analysis

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence about the relative positions of European Union member states on innovation and, more specifically, on innovation in manufacturing. These positions were obtained from the aggregation of different innovation variables using the principal component analysis. We do not provide, from the statistical viewpoint, a synthetic indicator, even if, from the economic perspective, the information we obtained was similar to what such an indicator would provide. Our unit of analysis is the sector in each country, what we will term ‘country‐sector’, covering both innovative and non‐innovative firms.     

Commentary. An alternative stability pact for the European Union

This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pactto the one which accompanied the introduction of the euro inJanuary 1999. The latter is part of the third stage of economicand monetary union and, will govern the economic policies ofthe member countries which have joined the single currency andstrongly constrain the policies of those who do not join. Thealternative proposed in this paper is a Full Employment, Growthand Stability Pact and would have a number of features, themost important of which is the creation of new institutionalarrangements, including the creation of an investment bank.     

The trade impact of European Union agricultural preferences

We assess the impact on agricultural trade of European Union (EU) trade policies, using a gravity model based on disaggregated trade flows from 161 developing countries (DCs) to 15 EU member countries. We use a sample selection framework to account for potential selection bias of positive trade flows and provide an explicit measure for relative preference margins. From a policy perspective, our results debunk some of the most widespread criticisms of preferential policies: EU preferences matter and have a positive impact on DCs agricultural exports at both the extensive and intensive margins, although with significant differences across sectors.     

贸易自由化中并购问题的经济学剖析

在贸易自由化对并购影响进行考察的基础上 ,可以发现 ,贸易自由对于潜在的并购者来说有两种意义 :受到保护的市场中的低效企业此时更容易被并购 ,对相对低效企业进行的并购变得越来越缺乏吸引力 ,不能实际地融合在一起 ,或者如果已经融合在一起的话 ,就出现了 (资源的 )耗散。无论在哪种意义上贸易的自由化都会激发并购活动的发生 ,但其中并不是所有的都符合整个社会的利益     

收入差距、流动成本与地区环境治理

已有的研究认为收入分配差距的扩大通常会导致环境Kuznets曲线拐点的推迟出现。就西部地区某一能源产区来看,本文认为富人具有较强的能力来支付流动成本,这种由收入分配差距导致的富人向较高环境质量地区移民,降低了其对本地区环境治理的需求水平。在环境治理总供给既定的情况下,本地区环境治理的较低需求将导致本地区环境治理的缺失与环境质量的恶化。本文通过建立一个两地区空间流动模型证明了上述观点。由此,本文从富人移民的角度阐明了收入分配差距拉大将导致本地区环境质量下降的内在机理。最后,提出了提高资源环境税率、降低个人所得税率,以及将"谁污染,谁治理"原则与"谁使用环境产品,谁付费"原则结合起来等政策建议。     

Spanish Imports of Manufactures and the European Union: An Empirical Assessment of the Entry

This paper investigates the consequences of Spain's accession to the European Union on its imports of manufactures. To that end the realised shares of GDP and the supplies of Spain's main trading partners in the transition period 1986–1992 are compared with the shares that are predicted by means of a model that is estimated using data that relate to the pre-integration period.     

移动互联网扩散的影响因素——基于跨国截面数据的实证研究

提出了包含制度、经济、技术、行业和人口的全球移动互联网扩散影响因素分析框架,并利用2013年110个国家的跨国截面数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:ICT基础设施、经济发展水平、人口密度、人力资本和知识产权是影响全球移动互联网扩散的重要因素。     

Macroeconomic Policy Design in the European Monetary Union: A Numerical Game Approach

Optimal economic reactions of European policy-makers on exogenous shocks are determined by simulating a global macroeconomic model under different institutional arrangements. In particular, it is investigated whether discretionary or rule-based policies and whether non-cooperative or cooperative policies for Europe result in a better performance as measured by intertemporal objective functions. The results show that the answers to these questions depend strongly on the nature of the shock to which European economies are exposed. For a negative supply shock, rule-based policies dominate, whereas for a negative demand shock, cooperative fiscal policy-making within the European Monetary Union gives the best results.     

The Welfare Effects of U.S. Most-Favored-Nation Tariff Treatment of Exports From China: An Empirical Inquiry *

This Study provides estimates of the elasticities of the U.S. import demand for Chinese goods and of China's export supply to he U.S. and China of granting Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff treatment for China's exports. In general, if Washington denies MFN status to Beijing, Sino-American commercial as well as political relations world be seriously harmed. [F13, F14]     

欧盟与湖北碳交易市场的互相关性——基于MF-X-DMA的研究

本文运用多重分形降趋势移动平均互相关分析法(MF-X-DMA)考察欧洲联盟碳交易市场与中国湖北碳交易市场之间的互相关性及其多重分形特征。通过实证研究发现,欧盟碳交易市场与湖北碳交易市场之间存在显著的互相关性且具有多重分形特征。同时,在市场出现剧烈波动时,两个碳交易市场之间的联动效应更为明显;湖北碳交易市场的多重分形特征显著,分形强度大于欧盟市场,且后者的自相关性不存在明显的多重分形特征。此外,以湖北碳交易市场为代表的中国新兴碳市场,市场成熟度不高,其涉及的短期相关性极易受到外部因素的影响。     

Empirical research on time-varying characteristics and efficiency of the Chinese economy and monetary policy: evidence from the MI-TVP-VAR model

Based on the general time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and data mining technology, this study proposes a new extension mixed innovation time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model and investigates time-varying characteristics and efficiencies of different shock effects on China’s monetary policy towards inflation and GDP. Using sample monthly data for 1979–2014, we utilize typical time points to illustrate the mechanisms between different economic variables via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the monetary transmission mechanism in China can be effective in the real economy, but with delay and efficiency leakage. The average delay and maximum efficiency can be measured through the MI model, which can capture accurate information of economic variables, effectively improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and control. Meanwhile, the difference between the impacts of different channels is obvious; while the impact of interest rates is not significant, the impact of stock market is significant. The action mechanism between GDP and the inflation rate undergoes a gradual structural change, evidently displaying time-varying characteristics and a gradually weakening impact over time.     

货币政策对利率期限结构的影响——基于动态Nelson-Siegel模型的实证分析

以中国人民银行发行的央票利率为货币政策变量,以动态Nelson-Siegel模型为基础构造动态因子模型,采用卡尔曼滤波估计利率期限结构因子,与货币政策变量一起建立误差修正模型,以此分析货币政策对利率期限结构的短期动态影响和长期均衡影响;同时基于中国银行间市场债券交易数据进行的实证分析表明:货币政策和利率期限结构之间的短期动态影响表现出非对称性,即债券市场对货币政策变化的反应较为迟缓,但货币政策对市场利率的变化反应敏锐。而长期均衡关系则表明,货币政策对银行间债券市场利率期限结构有显著影响,但银行间债券市场对央行的利率调控目标不敏感,不能形成明确预期。另一方面,货币政策对目标利率的市场引导效果十分敏感,银行间市场债券交易信息是央行制定货币政策的依据。     

Principles of Policymaking in the European Union: An Economic Perspective

How should tasks be divided between the EU and its member states?And what institutional reforms are needed? This paper arguesthat the single market remains to be better enforced, and thismight require further centralisation of tasks. On the otherhand, EU meddling with redistribution should be scaled back;this would imply reducing EU intervention in agricultural policy,structural funds and the social charter. EU tasks should insteadbe expanded outside the first pillar, namely in foreign anddefence policies, internal security, immigration. The paperends by discussing what institutional reforms are needed toaccompany this allocation of tasks. (JEL F02, F3)     

我国财政货币政策作用关系实证研究--基于VAR模型的检验分析

文章通过构建一个真实GDP增长率、财政赤字占GDP比重、货币供给M2增长率、零售物价指数变化率等4个变量的VAR模型,对我国财政政策与货币政策相互作用的关系及其动态性进行了实证分析,通过模型设定、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解,发现在我国不存在简单的财政货币政策的互补或替代关系,而是存在一种非对称性的关系,即扩张的货币政策伴随着收缩或稳健的财政政策,而扩张的财政政策导致被动扩张的货币政策,表现形式取决于具体宏观经济环境和经济冲击形式。同时,文章也得到其他一些结论,并认为,要增强政策的效率,必须强化央行的独立性,在现阶段需要严格控制赤字财政政策,以减少其对经济增长和经济波动的影响。     

论我国货币政策效应

本文基于VECM模型对我国货币政策效应做实证分析.结果表明,我国货币政策效应主要体现为促进经济增长,经济系统对货币需求和物价水平缺乏显著的抑制作用.我国中央银行为应对国际金融危机而实施的一系列宽松的货币政策,一方面有效地推动了GDP的止跌回升,另一方面也产生了通货膨胀的预期,助长了股票市场和房地产市场价格的高涨.因此在后金融危机时期要逐步调整货币政策,注意通货膨胀的风险,防范股票市场和房地产市场的泡沫.     

An analysis of Turkey's accession to the European Union

We build a two‐country dynamic general equilibrium model to study whether European citizens would benefit from the eventual accession of Turkey to the European Union (EU). The results of the simulations show that Turkey's accession is welfare enhancing for Europeans, provided that Turkish total factor productivity (TFP) increases sufficiently after enlargement. In the benchmark model with no capital mobility, the Europeans are better off if the Turkish TFP increase bridges more than 21% of the initial TFP gap between Turkey and the EU. This figure increases to 33% when capital mobility is introduced.     

我国移动通信产业的市场结构与规制改革

双寡头垄断是我国当前移动通信市场的格局。在移动通信行业打破独家垄断、促进竞争的规制改革初期,为争夺市场份额,中国联通有进行价格竞争的动机,价格竞争可以带动其他方面业务竞争,这样的市场格局能够增进社会福利。但随着中国联通和中国移动在市场份额上逐渐接近,价格竞争的动机不再明显,进行"默契串谋"的动机增强。同时,技术的进步和市场需求量的增加也使得双寡头的市场竞争格局不再是最有效的,构建一个三寡头有效竞争的市场格局应成为我国移动通信市场规制改革的取向。     

从民工潮到民工荒: 基于劳动力市场管制视角的分析

自2004年春开始,曾引起社会各界关注多年的民工潮逐步被以农民工短缺为特征的民工荒所取代.从民工潮到民工荒的转变绝不仅仅是表面上的农民工由富余到短缺,其实是一种使多层次矛盾得以凸显的劳动力市场现象.从劳动力市场管制角度看,民工荒现象凸显了我国劳动力市场管制中存在的制度缺陷和管制失灵;而要破解民工荒,改善对劳动力市场特别是农民工市场的管制,无疑是一种必然选择.本文从劳动力市场管制视角对民工荒现象所蕴含的社会意义、产生原因及解决对策做一分析.