农业产业集群与农业区域品牌互动分析——以库尔勒香梨品牌为例

近年来,新疆大力推动特色林果产业发展,强势区域品牌成为新疆特色林果产业可持续发展的重要方面。“库尔勒香梨”是全国惟一获“中国驰名商标”称号的地理标志,成长经验值得借鉴。本文以农业产业集群与农产品区域品牌互动关系分析为基础,解析库尔勒香梨品牌成长道路。     

福建省农产品出口与农业经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,福建省的农产品出口和农业经济发展迅速,但两者之间的关系尚不明确。结合计量经济学的平稳性检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验等方法,我们对福建省的农产品出口和农业经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明农产品出口能促进农业经济增长,且两者互为Granger原因。最后,根据研究结果从产业发展、质量管理、人才培养和资金投入等方面提出了对策建议。     

Land reform and rural development in the Transvaal

This paper considers and contrasts agriculture on the white‐owned farms and in the black‐occupied areas of the Transvaal. It outlines the limitations of the existing tribal tenure system in the black areas, and argues that the various development initiatives that have taken place there have not left the people either financially better off, or with a greater degree of control over their land than before. The whole Transvaal should be seen as a single unit for agricultural planning purposes. This would mean that natural resources, as well as agricultural services, could be spread more equitably among the entire population of the area, which would boost agricultural production, as well as lessen the gross inequalities currently pertaining between black and white agriculture in the area.     

近20年重庆市老龄化格局的时空演变与驱动因素研究

为减轻人口老龄化进程加快对重庆市经济社会持续稳定发展产生的影响。基于最新的第七次人口普查数据及历年统计年鉴数据，应用空间自相关、地理探测器等研究方法，分析20年来重庆市人口老龄化的时序演变特征、空间演变特征及其驱动因素。人口老龄化进程不断加深。2000-2020年人口老龄化系数由8.84%增长至17.08%，逐步向深度老龄化社会迈进。重庆市老龄化格局与经济发展水平呈现倒“U”形关系。老龄化的高值区由主城区向东北部演进，20年以来老龄化空间集聚特征增强，但集聚趋势逐渐放缓。老龄化现象由人口因素与社会经济因素共同作用形成。主要驱动因素由医疗服务水平转变为人口惯性及人口出生率，各影响因素间交互作用显著。     

农村金融发展与农村经济发展的灰色关联度研究——基于福建省的数据

建立了农村金融发展与农村经济增长的灰色关联度分析模型,对福建省农村金融发展与经济增长的相互关系进行了实证分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验法检验两者之间的因果关系。结果显示:农业贷款余额的增长是农林牧渔总产值增长、农业产业化经营组织的销售收入增长和以农产品为原料的工业企业产值增长的格兰杰成因;农村经济发展不是农村金融发展的格兰杰成因。     

安徽省城镇化、工业化、农业现代化与农村人口有效转移-基于1978-2012年时间序列数据的实证分析

在城镇化、工业化和农业现代化稳步和均衡发展背景下促进农村人口有效转移,是我国城镇化发展的重要路径.文章基于对安徽省1978-2012年时间序列数据的实证分析,指出城镇化、工业化和农业现代化之间存在长期均衡关系,工业化和农业现代化对安徽省农村人口有效转移有正向促进但是作用不够显著,并从促进产业结构优化、完善农业生产方式和提高转移人口综合素质等角度对推动安徽省农村人口有效转移和城镇化发展提出对策与建议.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

Agro-clusters and Rural Poverty: A Spatial Perspective for West Java

Neighbouring economies are likely to influence one another. The concentration of farming activities referred to as an ‘agro-cluster’ generates opportunities for income and employment in a given region and its surrounding area. We analyse the link between poverty rates and agro-clusters by accounting for spatial spillovers. To quantify agroclusters, we employ one input-oriented and one output-oriented measure. Our analysis applies six spatial econometric specifications and focuses on 545 subdistricts of West Java, where about 10% of the population live in poverty. We find that the concentration of agricultural employment substantially reduces poverty in a subdistrict as well as in neighbouring subdistricts. We also find that specialisation in crop outputs has positive impacts on poverty reduction and that localisation externalities are fundamental to agriculture's success. These findings imply that policy interventions may be applied in a spatially selective manner because they will generate spatial-spillover effects on poverty reduction in surrounding areas.     

The Changing Employment Structure of the Extended Jakarta Metropolitan Region

This paper examines the changing employment structures in the growing metropolitan region focused on Jakarta It disaggregates the Botabek region surrounding Jakarta into an inner and an outer ring, and finds that the “fringe” growth of Jakarta has come to dominate the pattern of urbanisation in West Java, adding more to the urban population of West Java in the 1980s than did the growth of the West Java capital, Bandung.

The increase in employment over the 1980–1990 period differed sharply between Jakarta and the two rings. Employment in DKI Jakarta rose by 52%, in the inner rmg by 425%, and in the outer ring by 36%. Migration patterns indicate that the inner ring was gaining both through city dwellers moving to areas outside the city boundaries and through people moving from elsewhere in Java and further afield. The educational attainment of the workforce in the inner ring rose dramatically, reflecting not only improvements in school facilities within the ring but also in-migration of well educated people.     

服务外包有助于化肥减量吗?——来自荟萃分析的证据

对于服务外包与化肥施用强度之间的关系,学术界虽积累了大量研究文献,但并没有得出一致的结论。文章运用荟萃分析方法,探究两者之间真实关系及其异质性来源。结果表明：（1）服务外包与化肥施用强度之间具有微弱的负相关关系;（2）农户经营规模、受教育程度以及研究所在国别等因素作用于这种负向相关关系,并成为现有实证研究结论不一致的重要异质性来源。基于现有文献数据来看,尽管服务外包有助于化肥的减量化,但是不能忽视两者间的调节变量与隐性作用机制。     

近期我国通货膨胀的原因及应对策略分析

通常情况下，通货通胀由经济过热引起，治理措施重点放在紧缩信贷、减缓经济增速方面。而我国货币发行量已经有所节制，经济增长幅度也在缩小，通胀却在攀升，2008年5月12日，国家统计局发表4月GPI指数上涨8．5％，比3月的83％，环比增长0．1％。此次我国发生的CPI指数上升与以往通胀不同，显然我们还有疏漏。原因是多方面的，本文主要从以下三个方面分析：一是涨价中有合理因素，如农产品涨价；二是进口型通胀；三是与世界经济接轨导致原来的价格体系转化，新的与世界密切联系的价格体系正在形成之中产生的价格波动、拉升，连带滋生出泡沫。在分析原因的基础上，给出一些应对性策略。     

A Selective Review of Recent Developments in the Economic Growth Literature

The role of institutions in the process of economic growth and development has generated considerable interest among researchers over the past few decades. In particular, incorporating institutional variables into the established growth theories and empirics involves understanding the impact and mechanisms through which institutions affect growth. In surveying recent developments in the economic growth literature, this review pays attention to the resurgent institutionalist research trend and its implications for growth theory and empirical research on growth. Policy issues primarily focused on Asian Pacific developing countries are highlighted.     

农村产业扶贫的困境与路径研究——以怀化市为例

农村产业扶贫机制是调动政府、企业、贫困户多方主体积极性的有效开发式扶贫机制。但是，当前农村产业扶贫依然面临着扶贫产业结构不优、农产品精深加工不足、农产品产销对接不畅、利益联结机制不健全等诸多实践困境。要破解上述实践困境，需要通过正确处理产业扶贫与区域发展的关系，不断夯实农产品加工业发展的支撑体系，积极探索农产品产销无缝对接的新模式，不断深化贫困人口与市场主体利益联结机制等举措才能实现。     

试论国有投资公司不良债权的调整机制

随着人口的不断增加、土地的逐渐减少和经济的快速发展 ,粮食供给将严重危及国家的稳定和经济的发展。要彻底改变这一状况 ,必须实现农业经济增长方式的转变。本文通过对农业经济增长方式的理论和变迁的研究 ,探讨在我国实现农业集约经营的方向和途径     

The Technical and Price Efficiency of Fertiliser use in Irrigated Rice Production

Rapid growth in chemical fertiliser use has been key to Indonesia's rice production increase during the past two decades. Very high fertiliser application rates in the country's major irrigated rice areas prompt concerns about technical and economic inefficiency, as well as possible adverse environmental impacts, particularly since fertiliser subsidies constitute a significant financial burden to the government. A 1989 national farm cost survey shows that rates of nitrogen and phosphorus use in wide areas of Java and Bali, and in some parts of Sumatra, are often far higher than those recommended by agronomists both in Indonesia and in similar Asian countries. The analysis indicates that fertiliser rates presently exceed profit maximising levels on much of Java, leading to a net financial loss estimated at over $29 million annually. More intensive extension efforts and changes in pricing strategy are proposed to improve technical and economic efficiency.     

Food Security in Asia

Rapid economic and agricultural sector growth have enhanced greatly food security in Asia during the past three decades. Most studies suggest this positive trend will continue into the next century. This paper reviews past trends and future prospects in access and availability of food in Asia at the national level. The paper concludes that the positive overall trend in increased food security relies on the capacity of Asian economies to address several key policy issues, including sustained economic growth, population pressure, structural changes in domestic economies, shifts in international comparative advantage, technological changes, developments in the domestic and international food markets, and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies cost-effective ways to increase food security in light of these issues and suggests that Asia's food security can be maintained only if international and domestic policies, institutional frameworks, and public expenditure patterns are conducive to cost–effective and sustainable agriculture development.     

工业化与城镇化良性互动发展关系探析

工业化和城镇化互为因果,互推发展。工业化发展通过就业需求促进农业人口向非农业人口转化、提供物质基础、促使产业结构和就业结构向非农化方向转变以及与城镇化发展规律的契合等方面推动城镇化发展。城镇化发展通过生产要素集聚集约、生产、生活资料大市场的形成、营造创新环境、带动市场需求优化经济结构等方面促进工业化发展     

Capital Stock Estimates by Province and Interprovincial Distribution in Indonesia

We use the perpetual inventory method to estimate gross fixed capital stock at the provincial level in Indonesia. We employ a relatively long series of past annual investments at constant prices for 1983–2007 and a province‐specific survival function for capital. For this purpose, we use published data on provincial income accounts, input–output tables, and surveys from existing studies. Capital was found to be over‐concentrated in the Java‐Bali region and inefficiently distributed among provinces. This distribution contributed to national growth in the majority of the sample years.     

A theory of heterogeneous city growth

We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 city producing an intermediate “agricultural” good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 city producing an intermediate “industrial” good with capital, labor, and human capital. A type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience, at equilibrium, heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the “industrial” type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the “agricultural” type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two former growth rates. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the “agricultural” city decreases over time. This property allows us to recover the empirical fact that most non‐agricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time, as shown in empirical studies.     

国家重点生态功能区人口发展的现状、问题与对策研究

国家重点生态功能区是关系到全国生态环境安全的敏感性区域,其中人口因素是经济社会发展的关键性因素.以全国重点生态功能区为研究范围,以区域内县域为分析单位,对2007—2018年数据进行分析.结果表明,重点生态功能区区域人口增长率、人口城镇化水平、人均GDP、人均财政收入和人均受教育程度显著低于全国平均水平;区域人口主要分布于中西部地区,且少数民族人口多,为人口净迁出区,劳动力人口占比较低.区域存在人口总量不利于生态环境保护、城镇发展水平低、外出打工农民比例大、农业人口迁移意愿不强烈、劳动力素质低、区域贫困人口多等问题.最后,针对重点生态功能区人口的发展问题提出对策建议,为实现区域人口的均衡发展提供借鉴和参考.