四川省农业竞争力水平评价研究

农业竞争力是反映一个国家或地区农业发展水平的重要指标。以四川省为研究对象，基于拓展的“钻石理论模型”，运用综合评分分析法测算四川省的农业综合竞争力指数（ACI）。研究发现，2020年，四川省的农业竞争力处于中等水平。具体来看，农业生产要素竞争力显示优势，农产品需求竞争力和机制竞争力因素竞争力处于中等，而农业经营主体竞争力、相关和支持性产业竞争力表现较弱。最后，提出相关对策建议。     

Changes in Chinese Competitiveness in Major Food Products: Implications for WTO Membership

Chinese entry to the WTO in December 2001 marks a new phase in agricultural trade, both nationally and globally. After a context review of Chinese agriculture and WTO-related policy issues, this paper first uses a Balassa index approach to examine China's relative competitiveness in some major food products over the period since 1985, followed by an analysis of price-cost ratios and production cost structures for these products. It is found that China has revealed comparative advantages in meat products but disadvantages in cereals. With limited land resources, its production and trade competitiveness has declined despite rapid substitution of capital for labour, due to a marked rise in relative labour price in agriculture. In the long run, it is expected that WTO membership will boost Chinese agricultural trade, but its impact on competitiveness will probably depend more on production costs, and will differ between crops and animal products.     

绿色水稻生产的经济学分析

绿色水稻生产对于当前粮食安全问题的改善以及农业生态环境的改良均有重大意义。研究过程中运用福利经济学理论分析农户作为理性决策者其生产绿色水稻的决策依据,认识到绿色水稻的经济效益高于常规水稻可提高稻农的经济福利;通过分析绿色水稻生产的外部经济性,认识到其外部经济性表现在生态效益、农业技术外溢、农产品国际竞争力强化。最后阐述政府鉴于绿色水稻生产的外部经济性以及为增进农户福利政策制定的建议。     

GROWTH ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S AGRICULTURE WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FERTILIZER AND NONAGRICULTURAL PRICES: DO POLICY REFORMS AFFECT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT?

The agricultural sector of Sri Lanka reacted sharply to the highly contentious policy reforms called Structural Adjustment Programs. We used a four‐sector general equilibrium model under a growth accounting approach to find out the effect of the policy (exogenous) variable on the target (endogenous) variable. Here, we considered only the most important variables, and the overall results indicate that policy changes are favorable to overall agricultural development, although their effect on the domestic food sector is negative. The most serious negative determinant under the policy changes relates to fertilizer, and our study indicates that fertilizer prices considerably affect agricultural production; it especially has a negative effect on domestic food production. Second, this paper analyzes the impact of nonagricultural price, finding that it positively helped the development of overall agriculture. Third, agricultural exports increased under the new policy reforms and made large contributions to agricultural production.     

基于组合模型下的河南省粮食生产相关投入分析及产量趋势预测

以河南省粮食总产量存在的波动性入手,应用主成分分析法对粮食生产相关投入进行组合提取分析,并对未来5年河南省粮食总产量进行建模预测。通过主成分分析显示,一是提取了农业基础资源投入与农业现代化水平因子及农业政策因子,贡献率分别为72.668%和15.429%;二是乡村从业人员与粮食产量趋势呈负相关,是由于随着农业生产多方面的投入增多,从中减少了一部分劳动力。运用所建立的GM(1,1)模型预测,未来5年,河南省粮食总产量仍将保持平缓增长的发展趋势,到2022年将达到7389.58万吨。该研究结果可作为相关部门制定粮食发展规划和政策措施的重要参考。     

Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya

This paper examines Kenya's agricultural pricing policy, its role in the development of key sectors of the agricultural economy during the 1970s and its impact on different classes of producers. Toward this end, the paper describes the process of agricultural price determination in Kenya, and examines trends in real producer price indices for selected crop groupings and by size of holding.The most important finding of the paper is that agricultural pricing policy has been used in Kenya to create incentives for the growth of marketed agricultural production. In addition, the paper shows that the Government of Kenya has also used pricing and marketing policy instruments to achieve its goal of promoting the agricultural development of smallholders, who constitute the dominant mode of agricultural production in Kenya. Significantly, these findings are contrary to the widely accepted notion that pricing policy in developing countries has uniformly been biased in favor of the urban sector and against agricultural producers.     

我国信息产业创新的现状、问题及政策研究

信息产业创新是旨在增强产业竞争力的,与信息产业形成发展相关的生产要素重新组合并引入生产体系的过程。本文重点归纳总结我国信息产业创新发展的基本现状以及存在的主要问题,进而提出相应的运行保障机制和政策建议。     

农业观光旅游竞争力提升策略探析

农业观光旅游是中国旅游业发展中的亮点,具有特色鲜明的市场竞争优势。日益激烈的旅游市场竞争态势,给农业观光旅游的发展提出了新的要求,如何提升竞争力已成为农业观光旅游不容忽视的重大课题。文章针对观光农业的现状,提出因地制宜发展具有自身特色的农业观光旅游产业的观点,从主题定位、环境建设、宣传促销、科技投入、品牌建设、运行机制等方面提出农业观光旅游的发展思路,对提升农业观光旅游竞争力的策略进行了初步探讨。     

Producer cooperative resettlement projects in Zimbabwe: Lessons from a failed agricultural development strategy

Zimbabwe epitomizes the contradictions driving the failure of state-directed agricultural development policies. In its second decade of independence, the government takes the credit for the country's agricultural and rural development success. Zimbabwe's “Green Revolution” record in Africa is enviable. Yet, this peasantry-led success story is problematic. It hides serious policy flaws in development strategy, namely, lack of performance and waste characterizing the Model B producer cooperative resettlement projects. Individually and collectively, the cooperatives, the government's preferred mode of production, are a complete failure. Lessons for development programs elsewhere, and in emergent South Africa, in particular are clear. The political economy of government assistance is not sufficient to produce agricultural surpluses and sustainable development. The social economy of cooperation in production organization by Africa's traditional farmers also does not, necessarily, translate into modern cooperatives, as Zimbabwe's policy makers assumed. Producer cooperatives are unproductive because of the prevailing organizational culture which enables leading members to seek individual self-interest and private gain, making it hard for the rank and file to cooperate and work for the common good.     

Grain crop capacity forecast as the basis for agricultural output prediction

Medium-term forecasting of grain crop capacity is considered, which is one of the central problems in the procedures of working out federal-and regional-level agricultural and food policy, and in the development programs of agricultural enterprises. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the grain crop capacity indicator the authors suggest a special algorithm for a medium-term forecasting. Possible applications for this algorithm are shown with reference to specific commodity producers. Methodological recommendations are given for forecasting regional-level agricultural production.     

The competitiveness of agricultural commodities systems: Their potential and growth factors

Strengths and weaknesses as well as potential and threats to the development of agricultural commodities systems in Russia and other CIS countries under the world economy globalization and regional integration are considered. The influence of certain factors on the efficiency and competitiveness of agrarian production is studied.     

中国农业经济增长的要素贡献度研究——基于分省非稳定面板的实证分析

本文运用非稳定的分省面板计量方法,对1949—2005年我国农业增长进行了分析。分析结果表明:我国农业发展和农业生产力受政策影响严重,有效的政策措施对于农业生产力的提高有极大的促进作用;农业生产物质投入因素中化肥和农机的使用对产值的贡献度最大;我国农业发展以粗放型为主,某些时间段集约化较高;合理的农村经济制度是我国农业可持续发展前提和保证。     

农业核心竞争力影响因素的实证研究

目前,我国农业面临发展战略的调整和提高农业核心竞争力的问题。农业核心竞争力是一个涵盖农业本身以及相关要素、关系和行为多个方面的综合系统,本文通过模糊综合评价法,对影响农业核心竞争力的因素进行了定量分析,评价诸多因素对农业核心竞争力的影响程度。     

北京市种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力研究

以北京市58个种植业“一村一品”村为研究对象,选取种植业“一村一品”村农业产业相关指标。首先,通过因子分析将筛选出的投入方面与产出方面原始评价指标分别进行降维处理,从而构建简化且合理的评价指标。其次,运用组合赋权超效率DEA模型,对种植业“一村一品”村农业产业效率值进行评价分析。最后,运用ESDA模型分析空间因素对“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力的影响,研究其农业产业竞争力是否存在空间相关性,探索种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力在空间分布格局上的联系。结果表明：种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力整体较强,但村间差异较大;农业产业竞争力具有空间相关性,存在集聚效应。据此,提出培育新型经营主体、选准高质量特色产业、协调各区域内互补发展、加强跨区域科技合作交流等建议,推动北京市种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力提升。     

Food policy and class transformation in revolutionary Nicaragua, 1979–1986

State grain policy in Nicaragua has represented both a short-run intervention in food production and a longer-run strategy of class transformation. The emphasis given peasant production of corn and beans has depended on both considerations, and has varied over the seven years of the revolutionary process. A class analysis of this policy reveals changing responses by the FSLN to external and internal political and economic conditions. Recent measures point to an acceptance of petty commodity grain production, which may or may not be compatible with socialist agricultural development.     

产业耦合视角下河北农业生产性服务业与农业协调发展分析

对河北农业生产效率和农业生产性服务业发展水平进行测算,并基于耦合协调度模型分别从区域和行业层面分析两个系统间的耦合互动程度.结果显示:河北农业生产效率较高,与农业生产服务处于良好协调发展阶段;但地区间差异较大,唐山、石家庄的各项指标较好,有一定的示范作用;具体行业看,农业配送服务对农业生产效率提升的推力不足,以农业信息、农村金融、农技推广为代表的现代服务业与农业的耦合度要优于传统服务业,最后提出产业耦合的提升措施.     

海南农产品出口基地建设初探

农业是海南经济发展的支柱产业之一。海南农产品出口比重低,竞争力弱,与海南作为我国最重要的热带农产品生产基地极不相称,建立农产品出口基地已势在必行。本文系统地分析了海南农产品出口基地建设的必要性与可行性,提出了农产品出口基地建设的布局设想,并指出了相应的保障措施。     

欠发达地区农业保险发展困境及对策——以青海省为例

农业保险作为发展农业生产、防范农业风险和保证农民稳定增收的重要政策工具,受到各界的重视。但在欠发达地区,农业保险一方面得到政府的大力推广,另一方面却陷入了“供给有限、需求不足”的尴尬境地。文章以欠发达地区之一的青海省为例,回顾了农业保险发展历程,总结了发展中面临的困境,并分析了困境产生的原因,认为应继续推行有财政补贴和政策支持的农业保险模式;建立多层次、可持续的农业保险体系;探索农业气候指数保险,为管理农业风险提供新工具、新思路。     

新疆农产品国际竞争力影响因素分析——基于双钻石模型的量化对比分析

本文运用修正的双钻石模型,探究影响新疆农产品国际竞争力的因素。结果表明,与沿边省份广西、云南和内蒙古相比,新疆农产品在主体战略、结构和竞争方面处于优势地位,在生产要素、需求条件、相关和支持产业方面处于劣势地位。因此,保持优势、转化劣势是增强新疆农产品国际竞争力的有效途径。     

Farmers' Variety Attribute Preferences: Implications for Breeding Priority Setting and Agricultural Extension Policy in Ethiopia*

Abstract: Technological progress in Ethiopian agriculture is the slowest by any standard, with rather very poor capacity to address the nation's problems of low agricultural productivity, poverty, and resource degradation. This paper argues and attributes the low level of technology adoption and impact to the discrepancy between the farmers' needs and the attributes of technologies generated. The empirical evidences have been generated based on the analyses of coffee farmers' variety attribute preferences, taking coffee seedlings as production technologies. Attribute preferences of smallholder farmers are governed by their contextual household characteristics, institutional, and socioeconomic factors. According to the results, risk vulnerable farmers prefer seeds adaptable to their local conditions and varieties with stable yield attribute. On the contrary, farmers in more accessible areas and/or those who are less concerned in securing subsistence income levels opt for income maximizing attributes, namely, yield and marketability. The study results have also shown the mechanisms of how farmers' attribute preferences change with development‐oriented interventions. The paper demonstrates why and how policy‐makers should formulate context specific technology development and agricultural extension strategies.