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1.
Mauricio Gallardo 《Journal of economic surveys》2018,32(4):1074-1105
In the economic literature on poverty, various methods have been proposed for measuring a phenomenon known as ‘vulnerability’. However, after more than a quarter century of research, no consensus has been reached on how to identify such vulnerable individuals within a given population. Some misunderstandings have also arisen from the overlapping of other closely related concepts, such as the expectation of being poor, expected poverty, multi‐period poverty and risk exposure. This paper offers a detailed conceptual discussion on vulnerability to poverty and its related elements, reviewing a wide range of identifying criteria provided in the literature. It is found that according to the state of the art in this field of research, two key elements stand out in identifying vulnerable individuals: an expected well‐being below the poverty line and a relevant risk of falling into poverty due to downside deviation from a reference level of well‐being. The traditional classification of vulnerability approaches has been updated into four groups: (i) those that stress the element of exposure to risk; (ii) those that emphasize the element of expected poverty; (iii) those that define vulnerability through a utility gap and (iv) those that are supported by a mean‐risk dominance criterion. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, we show that risk vulnerability can be associated with the concept of downside risk aversion (DRA) and an assumption about its behavior, namely that it is decreasing in wealth. Specifically, decreasing downside risk aversion in the Arrow–Pratt and Ross senses are respectively necessary and sufficient for a zero-mean background risk to raise the aversion to other independent risks. 相似文献
3.
关于我国无风险收益率选择研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
CAPM、APT等经济模型中都使用了——无风险收益率概念,但我国目前无论在学术界还是在实务界对无风险收益率的选择都相去甚远。本文提出了在借鉴美国投资者无风险收益率选择成功经验的基础上通过分析研究,努力找到符合标准并在我国适用的无风险收益率。 相似文献
4.
We studied downside and upside price spillovers between four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium), characterizing the multivariate dependence structure using a vine copula model and computing downside and upside value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. We found that the dependence structure differed across precious metals, all of which displayed different average and tail dependence features. Gold and silver prices were highly dependent except at the upper tail, whereas silver prices were integrated with those for platinum and palladium except at the upper tail. The gold market was very little integrated with the platinum and palladium markets. We document asymmetric downside and upside price spillover effects that differed in magnitude across precious metals; silver, in particular, had a greater downside and upside price impact on gold. Our results, indicating that precious metals do not behave as a single asset class, have implications for risk management, trading and hedging strategies for portfolios that include precious metals. 相似文献
5.
The article develops a downside risk asset-pricing model, which is based on Conditional-VaR (Mean-shortfall) risk measure. As in the traditional model the model leads to a monetary separation and yields a CVaR beta analogous to the traditional beta. An empirical study indicates that CVaR beta, which considers also downside risk, has greater explanatory power than the traditional beta. This is especially true in the case of a bearish market. Moreover, a combined model, which uses both betas, outperforms both the traditional and the CVaR models.The results indicate that in a bullish economy, risk premiums may be partially explained by the traditional beta. However, in a depressed economy investors are most likely more concerned about downside risk, which is poorly captured by the traditional beta. This downside risk can best be captured by CVaR beta, which is based on historical data and avoids assuming any prior distribution. 相似文献
6.
伴随\"走出去\"程度的加深,中国跨国企业的东道国风险敞口越来越大,这将如何影响跨国企业的债务融资成本是值得探讨的重要问题。本文基于海外子公司的国家分布,利用国际国家风险指数(ICRG),刻画中国上市跨国企业的东道国风险暴露及其对公司债券发行信用利差的影响。研究结果显示,东道国风险上升将显著提高中国上市跨国企业发行债券时的信用利差,表明企业付出了更多融资成本以补偿债券投资者对企业海外业务高风险的担忧。从风险分拆来看,东道国政治、经济和金融风险上升都会在不同程度上显著提高信用利差。进一步研究表明,企业具有国有背景、海外经营经验丰富以及东道国与中国关系越\"近\",越有助于调节东道国风险对债券发行利差的负面影响。 相似文献
7.
本文通过对开放式基金的实证研究,发现开放式基金的机构投资者持股比例与超额收益率呈显著的负相关关系,即机构投资者并不能提高开放式基金业绩。相反机构投资者持股比例越高,开放式基金业绩可能越低,这与已有研究文献的结论不同。同时还发现基金公司收取的管理费用和基金的累计净值对基金业绩有正面的影响。 相似文献
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10.
In this article, we revisit the impact of the voluntary central clearing scheme on the CDS market. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we use a robust methodology that relies on dynamic propensity-score matching combined with generalized difference-in-differences. Our empirical findings show that central clearing results in a small increase in CDS spreads (ranging from 14 to 19 bps), while there is no evidence of an associated improvement in CDS market liquidity and trading activity or of a deterioration in the default risk of the underlying bond. These results suggest that the increase in CDS spreads can be mainly attributed to a reduction in CDS counterparty risk. 相似文献
11.
This paper investigates spillover effects and portfolio diversification between the four major developed stock markets (USA, Europe, Japan and Asia) and five of the most important emerging stock markets known as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). To this end, we apply the multivariate DECO-FIEGARCH model to daily spot indices during the period 1998–2016. The results reveal a significant and asymmetric long memory process for both the developed and the BRICS markets. Moreover, we find a significant variability in the time-varying conditional correlations between the considered markets during both bull and bear markets, particularly from early 2007 to summer 2008. Additionally, we analyze the optimal portfolio weights, time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness based on the estimates of the model. The results underline the importance of overweighting the optimal portfolios with stocks from the developed countries over those from the BRICS. Finally, we assess the practical implications for mixed developed-BRICS stock portfolios, based on finding strong evidence of diversification benefits and downside risk reductions that confirm the usefulness of using developed market stocks in the BRICS stock portfolio risk management. 相似文献
12.
利用2008—2020年A股上市家族企业发行的公司债券数据,从审计治理效应的角度研究在债券存续期内高质量审计师对家族企业债券信用利差的影响。研究发现：在家族企业中,来自“十大”会计师事务所的审计师和具有行业专长的审计师能降低债券信用利差,这种降低作用是通过降低企业信息风险、抑制控股家族侵占行为实现的。异质性分析结果表明,在控制权和现金流权分离程度高、机构投资者参与治理程度低的家族企业中,高质量审计师与债券信用利差之间的负向关系更为显著。结论从审计治理效应的角度丰富了有关家族企业公司治理的理论研究。 相似文献
13.
Makoto Nirei 《Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination》2008,3(1):89-97
This paper explains the fat-tail distribution of asset transaction volumes and prices by a model of rational herd behavior
of traders. Each trader decides whether to buy an asset by observing private information and other traders’ actions. A trader’s
buying action reveals his positive private information and affects the other traders’ beliefs in favor of buying, leading
to strategic complementarity. A power-law distribution emerges for the number of buying actions in a static Nash equilibrium.
This model provides an economic reason as to why the stock market has to exhibit a criticality in the connectivity of the
traders’ actions.
I am benefited by comments from the seminar participants at University of Tokyo and the Econophysics Colloquium 2006 at International
Christian University, the editors of the special issue, and particularly an anonymous referee. 相似文献
14.
This paper proposes downside risk measure models in portfolio selection that captures uncertainties both in distribution and in parameters. The worst-case distribution with given information on the mean value and the covariance matrix is used, together with ellipsoidal and polytopic uncertainty sets, to build-up this type of downside risk model. As an application of the models, the tracking error portfolio selection problem is considered. By lifting the vector variables to positive semidefinite matrix variables, we obtain semidefinite programming formulations of the robust tracking portfolio models. Numerical results are presented in tracking SSE50 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Compared with the tracking error variance portfolio model and the equally weighted strategy, the proposed models are more stable, have better accumulated wealth and have much better Sharpe ratio in the investment period for the majority of observed instances. 相似文献
15.
This paper studies necessary and sufficient preference-based conditions for differentiability of risk averse (prudent, or temperate) von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions. The very idea to devise those conditions is based on the reverse claim of an old observation by Arrow that a risk-averse expected-utility maximizer will always accept a sufficiently small stake in any positive expected-value bet if her von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function is differentiable. 相似文献
16.
We study interest rate sensitivities of U.S. investment grade BBB-rated and high yield corporate bonds over the period of 2001–2016. Our methodology assesses the capital gains of corporate bond portfolios and risk-free government bond portfolios, using average coupon and blended yield indices for the U.S. market. For both, U.S. BBB and high yield corporate bonds, we evidence the switching, from positive to negative interest rate sensitivity, occurring over the transition from the normal economic conditions to the periods of economic distress and vice-versa. The proposed theoretical explanation of such binary behavior posits an interrelation between interest rate and creditworthiness of issuers, which varies according to the phases of the business cycle. This research advances an economic understanding of interest rate risk management and sheds light on how financial institutions may develop strategies that hedge against downside risk. 相似文献
17.
信息不对称时,地方政府债务期限结构和利率溢价之间会出现不同于金融理论推导的反向关系,即债务利率溢价上升,发行人倾向于发行更短期限的债务。同时,这种反向关系会受到地方政府区域经济风险和政策不确定性的影响,如土地价格、政策等经济风险因素或不确定因素会改变债务期限与利率溢价之间的反向关系敏感度。本文利用31个省份10年（2009～2018年）政府债券或其融资平台债券发行期限和利率溢价数据实证检验了本文的假说,并提出建立健全中央财政监督机制以及地方政府财政融资体系等政策建议。 相似文献
18.
In order to challenge the existing literature that points to the detachment of Bitcoin from the global financial system, we use daily data from August 17, 2011–February 14, 2020 and apply a risk spillover approach based on expectiles. Results show reasonable evidence to imply the existence of downside risk spillover between Bitcoin and four assets (equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities), which seems to be time dependent. Our main findings have implications for participants in both the Bitcoin and traditional financial markets for the sake of asset allocation, and risk management. For policy makers, the findings suggest that Bitcoin should be monitored carefully for the sake of financial stability. 相似文献
19.
This article considers nine different predictive techniques, including state-of-the-art machine learning methods for forecasting corporate bond yield spreads with other input variables. We examine each method’s out-of-sample forecasting performance using two different forecast horizons: (1) the in-sample dataset over 2003–2007 is used for one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead forecasts of non-callable corporate bond yield spreads; and (2) the in-sample dataset over 2003–2008 is considered to forecast the yield spreads in 2009. Evaluations of forecasting accuracy have shown that neural network forecasts are superior to the other methods considered here in both the short and longer horizon. Furthermore, we visualize the determinants of yield spreads and find that a firm’s equity volatility is a critical factor in yield spreads. 相似文献
20.
This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis. 相似文献