利用决策支持系统提高农业项目投资决策效果

本文对农业项目投资评估的研究进行了简要综述 ,并对农业项目投资评估的研究领域进行了划分 ,分析了当前决策支持技术的发展动态 ,认为将决策支持技术应用于农业项目投资评估中可解决项目投资决策问题的结构不良问题、决策方案的模糊性、目标的冲突性等问题 ,进而提高项目决策效果。     

预算软约束与花钱买机制--农村信用社改革中的博弈与均衡

2003年深化农村信用社改革以来,国家大量注资农信社,意图通过正向激励促进农村信用社转换经营机制,达到“花钱买机制”的目的。这个目的实现了吗?金融界、学术界对此颇有争论。有人认为,农村信用社的改革偏重于基层机构的重组,热衷于把“信用社”改名为“合作银行”,而在本质上忽略了经营机制的建设。在管理体制、产权制度和法人治理结构等核心问题没有根本解决的情况下,“花钱买机制”的目标很难实现,只是在短期内改善了农村信用社的资产负债情况,难以从源头杜绝农村信用社的道德风险。在市场经济中,预算约束硬化是经济主体应具备的特征,严重资不抵债就要破产退出市场。对农村信用社改革要真正做到“花钱买机制”,首先要解决农村信用社的预算软约束问题。本文在分析农村信用社特殊性的基础上,探讨了采取产权约束、市场约束和管理约束多种措施共同治理的方式。     

A Computational Model of Coordination for the Design of Organizational Decision Support Systems

The Information Technology (IT) for realizing Organizational Decision Support Systems (ODSS) is in a nascent stage of development. This is particularly true in the area of coordination, which is a critical element of ODSS, and which distinguishes ODSS research from earlier research in Group DSS and individually oriented DSS. As a first step in ODSS coordination research, alternative representation schemes need to be examined in terms of both their match with the prevailing needs of organizations and of existing IT approaches that can be brought to bear. Matching ODSS needs with coordination representation requirements is examined by using several supporting reference disciplines including foundational DSS and recent ODSS research frameworks/architectures. Existing IT approaches are adapted from the reference disciplines of Active DSS, Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI), and Mathematical/Computational Organization Theory (MCOT) to operationalize a computational model of coordination that: (1) embodies the philosophies of Active DSS—including the idea that automated intelligent agents can play a significant role in supporting decision makers by independently carrying out rudimentary tasks to support the various phases of a decision making process; (2) adapts DAI and IT approaches to reflect practical human organizational realities including what we refer to as the ‘Open-Ended Knowledge World‘, and the evolutionary nature of organizations—whereby ODSS coordination representations will be subjected to almost constant revision due to both external environment disruptions and internal events that require adjustments to a preliminary plan; and (3) reflects the fact that organizational goals are often vague, which implies that a coordination representation should be sufficiently robust to reflect ad hoc analysis accommodating of strategy changes.     

AMTexpert: An Expert Decision Support System for the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax

AMTexpert is a prototype of an expert decision support system (EDSS) for the corporate alternative minimum tax (AMD. The corporate AMT was introduced as part of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 in order to force US corporations to pay more tax. The complicated and interrelated nature of the AMT system has made compliance and planning even more difficult for corporate taxpayers. Given the complexities of the corporate AMT, significant benefits may accrue from the development of an EDSS. In effect, an EDSS combines the judgmental benefits of an expert system (ES) with the computational benefits of a decision support system (DSS). AMTexpert is menu driven with six interdependent phases. The heart of the system is a ‘scoreboard’ used to compare and evaluate alternative tax positions. Context-sensitive advice and explanations are provided to guide the user. The system was validated and evaluated by two groups of outside experts. AMTexpert demonstrates that an EDSS may be developed from existing tax and systems software.     

借鉴国际经验 构筑我国中小企业发展的财政政策支持体系：财政支持非公有制经济发展的重要举措

大力发展非公有制经济是我国“十五”期间经济结构调整的重点内容之一，中小企业是非公经济的最主要形式，已在我国的经济中占有越来越重要的地位，特别是对促进经济增长、缓解就业压力、增加地方财政收入等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。但目前中小企业的进一步发展面临着融资困难、人才缺乏、负担过重等多种障碍，因此，如何促进中小企业的发展是成为我国面临的一个重要课题。西方发达国家在利用财政促进中小企业发展方面有许多可供借鉴的成功经验。本文在借鉴西方各国促进中小企业发展的财政政策基础上，结合当前我国中小企业发展中存在的实际困难，立足我国现实国情，选择适合的财政政策促进我国中小企业发展，使之成为我国的一个新的经济增长点和财源增长点。     

科技支撑体系下的资金支持研究

我国经济社会发展将在未来进入快速发展期,科学技术发展面临重大的战略机遇,建立科技支撑体系以促进经济发展是正确的路径选择.但是,科技支撑体系建设的资金支持不足已成为普遍的瓶颈.贵港市也面临同样的瓶颈,需要借鉴国内外的经验,加大资金支持科技投入的力度,从而促进经济的持续、健康发展.     

Case-Based Reasoning: Application Techniques for Decision Support

Decision-support systems can be improved by enabling them to use past decisions to assist in making present ones. Reasoning from relevant past cases is appealing because it corresponds to some of the processes an expert uses to solve problems quickly and accurately. All this depends on an effective method of organizing cases for retrieval. This paper investigates the use of inductive networks as a means for case organization and outlines an approach to determining the desired number of cases—or assessing the reliability of a given number. Our method is demonstrated by application to decision making on corporate tax audits.     

运用大数据分析提升授信审批决策水平的思考

在经济新常态下,越来越多的企业进入结构调整和转型的新周期,给商业银行授信审批决策提出更高要求,而大数据时代的到来,为精准授信审批决策提供了有力支持.本文从大数据分析优势入手,通过大数据挖掘技术,进一步验证授信企业主背景及经营管理的真实性,提升授信企业风险的甄别能力,并对建立大数据完善授信审批决策机制提出相关建议.     

Scheduling Shipbuilding Using a Constraint Directed Graph Search: DAS-ERECT

To build a scheduling system for shipbuilding, we have adopted a hierarchical architecture and developed a constraint directed graph search technique for erection scheduling at the dock. First, in the hierarchical architecture, detailed schedules for the lower-level assembly plants are delegated to the individual plant's schedulers as long as the requirements from the higher-level scheduler are satisfied. However, if lower-level scheduling is impossible, the higher-level scheduler attempts to adjust the original requirements. Second, in the constraint directed graph search, the concepts of graph expansion and constraint directed pruning are amalgamated into an algorithm. The approaches are implemented in the DAS-ERECT system which is a sub-system of the DAS project undertaken for the Daewoo Shipbuilding Company.     

Organizational Health Maintenance: The Design of a Knowledge-Based Strategy Support System

Rather than reacting to strategic problems, a healthy organization should focus on preventing debilitating strategic decisions. This research takes the view that the implementation and monitoring of strategic plans should be more open to opportunistic and preventive intervention as made possible by the design and implementation of innovative information systems technologies employing recent knowledge-based systems advancements. A knowledge-based alerting approach to organizational health maintenance (OHM) is developed. Critical to this approach is the determination of a set of triggers for determining when actions are deemed necessary for preventing strategic problems. An OHM System architecture and implementation are described.     

如何构建“沃德财富”客户服务的支撑体系

2006年5月交行向社会推出了针对高端客户的服务品牌--"沃德财富",这是交行零售银行业务转型的一个标志,但这仅仅是一个起步。如何建立一个完整的“沃德财富”客户服务的支撑体系,课题组在调查研究的基础上对六个方面的问题进行了深入探讨:1、借助高档服务品牌和项目,提高客户满意度;2、细分客户,构建引导客户提高贡献度的阶梯化服务模式;3、以客户需求为根本,建立多方面全方位的服务平台;4、重视沃德财富服务联盟商户的拓展;5、依托科技平台,应用和完善基础支撑体系;6、加快培养一支专业的理财师队伍。     

Applying XBRL in an Accounting Information System Design Using the REA Approach: An Instructional Case*

The Church in Somewhere (CIS) is a small community church which uses an Excel spreadsheet to keep its financial records. The church administrator is considering moving from a spreadsheet accounting system to a relational database system that can easily be expanded to include more information in the future. In this paper we examine the transforming process in this hypothetical case by following a resource‐event‐agent (REA) modeling paradigm to create a database. We then link the REA model to financial reporting using Microsoft Access. In addition, using the financial report in the database, students prepare and validate an eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) document for CIS. Instead of applying the complex U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) Taxonomies, Release 2009 , the case uses a dedicated CIS Taxonomy to complete the mapping and tagging processes.     

Using Technology to Encourage Critical Thinking and Optimal Decision Making in Risk Management Education

This article draws a link between the risk management failures in the financial services industry and the educational philosophy and teaching constraints at business schools. An innovative application of prediction market technology within business education is proposed as a method that can be used to encourage students to think about risk in an open and flexible way. This article explains how prediction markets also provide students with the necessary experience to critically evaluate and stress‐test quantitative risk modeling techniques later in their academic and professional careers.     

县级金融机构支持县域经济发展的思考

笔者针对监管职能分离后,基层人民银行和其它金融机构如何结合自身实际,支持县城经济这一热点问题,从四个方面展开了探讨。     

APX: An Integrated Knowledge-Based System to Support Audit Planning

Auditors who must express an opinion on the financial statements of publicly held enterprises must perform a series of risk assessments as the basis for selecting appropriate audit procedures to be performed. Although many auditing expert systems have been developed for individual components of the audit risk assessment process such as inherent and control risk assessment, none integrate these assessments to arrive at the ultimate objective of assessing the allowable level of detection risk which drives audit procedure selection. This paper discusses critical design concerns for audit planning expert systems in light of the integrated nature of the steps involved in the audit planning process. The design and development of an integrated audit planning expert system called APX (Audit Planning eXpert) is also discussed. A distinguishing feature of APX is that it not only performs the individual types of risk assessments but it also integrates the resulting assessments to arrive at allowable detection risk. The knowledge acquisition and system development process are described to illustrate some of the mechanics of developing such a system.     

Using an intranet to facilitate student-centered learning

This paper describes the use of computer-aided learning and an intranet in a third year financial statement analysis course in 1996. The course required students to create a substantial report on the financial analysis of an allocated company. A series of small movies of relevant computer skills were used by students over an intranet. These movies replaced the need for tutor based demonstration on these topics. The intranet was also used to supply a wealth of data and information, including financial and share price data, exams, focus questions, lecture notes, and newspaper articles. Students also had access to several mirrored sites on the intranet, including sites of some of the companies under student investigation. This provided students with convenient, fast, no cost access to a wider range of text and graphical information than was previously possible. Discussion groups were also created to allow discussion to occur outside the classroom. Student reaction has been favorable to the use of the Intranet in this course. The paper also briefly outlines how the Web site was created and discusses some of the resource issues.     

Using Goals,Rules and Methods to Support Reasoning in Business Process Reengineering

One step towards a more systematic approach to the design of business processes is to develop models that provide appropriate representations of the knowledge that is needed for understanding and for reasoning about business processes. We present a modelling framework which uses goals, rules and methods to support the systematic analysis and design of business processes. The frame-work consists of two main components—a Strategic Dependency model that describes a process organization in terms of intentional dependencies among actors, and a Strategic Rationale model that supports reasoning during process redesign. Formal representation of these models allows computer-based tools to be developed as extensions to, and eventually integrated with, other tools for supporting information systems development.