The impact of biotechnologies and protection on the world sugar market

Abstract

Over the last decade, biotechnologies have become a major challenge to the world's agricultural markets. By considering the sugar market, this paper demonstrates the influence of national policy interventions on the process of market introduction of these technologies. The results suggest that protectionism in industrialised countries has promoted the development of substitutes and depressed the competitiveness of new technologies in the field of sugar plant production. Techniques of bioprocessing have reached the stage of technical maturity due to strong public support. The costs of these changes are largely borne by consumers and taxpayers in richer countries and by Third World exporters.     

International trade and agricultural development in developing countries: Significance of the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations

Liberalization of world trade in agricultural products ranks high on the agenda of the Uruguay Round. After a period of more than six years, however, the negotiations have not been concluded. Nevertheless, an outcome seems to be in sight. The agreement will most likely not result in a move to freer trade. It seems that domestic policies will become even more regulative than in the past in an attempt to cut exportable surpluses and to ease trade tensions among the main exporting nations. This paper explores possible impacts of the GATT Round on agricultural development in developing countries. Agricultural development is more than only growth in agricultural production or productivity. However, it is argued in the paper that other variables which also indicate agricultural development are often closely correlated with growth in production and productivity. Trade in agricultural products is not always an engine for agricultural development. If internal divergences are not accounted for by appropriate domestic policies, trade may be even harmful to agricultural development. Hence, empirical research based on cross-country analysis does not provide a clear answer about the role of trade for development. Past policies in industrialized countries have most likely had a negative effect on developing countries as a group; however, the effects differ widely across countries. Liberalization policies in industrialized countries would not just reverse these negative effects for developing countries. Price reduction in industrialized countries may not result in the often-cited production decline in the short term. Present X-inefficiency in agriculture will be reduced by liberalization, leading to an outward shift of the supply curve. Hence, liberalization may not lead to higher world market prices for temperate-zone products in the short and medium term. Apart from this, empirical models differ widely in the price effects they predict. The expected outcome of the Uruguay Round – increased regulation of domestic policies – is likely both more negative for developing countries than past protectionist policies and worse than an overall liberalization. World market prices will increase, uncertainty and instability can be expected to grow, and food aid may become less available. There will be a need to react to these challenges with measures on the international and national level. Initiatives to deal with food crises in developing countries and to stimulate liberalization in developing countries should be considered. Finally, developing countries should be made aware that their own domestic policies have a much greater economic impact than policies in other countries, even if the latter are as protectionist as current agricultural policies in the industrialized world.     

International trade in a differentiated good: Trade elasticities in the world rice market

In many previous rice trade models, the commodity has been regarded as a homogeneous product. However, homogeneity is not an appropriate assumption, given the various types of rice that are traded and consumed. Parameters estimated from these models, therefore, do not reflect the real world market for rice and, hence, may mislead decision makers who use the results for policy evaluation purposes. This study uses an Armington approach to model the world rice trade as a differential good market and to derive trade elasticity parameters.     

Tariffication and the Canadian Chicken Industry in the Uruguay Round Agreement

To date, the literature has considered the conversion of nontariff barriers into bound tariff schemes by matching either the first moments of the marginal domestic price densities under both states, or the first moments of the marginal import quantity densities under both states. This article outlines the necessary conditions that must be satisfied by any tariff scheme, such that, given a stable demand relation, the joint price and supply densities are equivalent under both states of nature. These necessary conditions are invariant to uncertainty, market structure and imperfect information. Tariffication in the Uruguay Round agreement for the Canadian chicken industry is the considered application.     

Agreement on agriculture in the Uruguay Round of GATT: from Punta del Este to Marrakesh

To help appreciate the outcome of the negotiations, this paper will attempt to provide answers to the following questions. Why did the agreement take as long as 7 years to negotiate? What were the major obstacles to reaching an agreement? How did the negotiators reconcile differing points of view on issues such as the role of border measures and domestic policy measures in agriculture? What has been accomplished during the negotiations? Was the agreement successful in reforming agriculture? What are the likely effects on agricultural commodity prices in implementing the agreement?     

An Economic Analysis of the Effects on the World Dairy Sector of Extending Uruguay Round Agreement to 2005

A spatial equilibrium model of the world dairy sector is used to simulate the regional impacts of extending the 1995 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) dairy commitments to 2005. In particular, the import quota, within- and over-quota import tariff and export subsidy components of the URAA dairy commitments are analyzed both separately and jointly. This analysis provides insight into the tradeoffs among the various components of the URAA dairy trade liberalization. Extending the URAA to 2005 more than doubles the producer and consumer welfare impacts of the GATT 2000 relative to the BASE scenario for most regions. Aggregate producer and consumer welfare changes are estimated to be in the $2–5 billion range. Results suggest that western Europe remains heavily protected even after the URAA extension to 2005, and its dairy producers will lose the most with further, post-URAA dairy trade liberalization. In contrast, dairy producers in low-cost exporting regions (New Zealand, Australia and South America/South) will gain the most. Impacts of GATT 2005 on Japan, the U.S. and Canada are found to be relatively small. Un modèle àéquilibre spatial du secteur laitier mondial est utilisé pour simuler les impacts régionaux d'une reconduction des engagements laitiers de l'Accord sur l'agriculture de l'Uruguay Round (AAUR) de 1995 jusqu'à 2005. En particulier, nous analysons séparément et en interaction les contingents d'importation, les tarifs sur les importations faites à l'intérieur et au-delà des contingents et la section des engagements laitiers relative aux subventions des exportations. L'analyse jette un éclairage sur les compromis possibles parmi les divers éléments de la libéralisation préconisée par l'AAUR. Une reconduction de l'AAUR jusqu'en 2005 ferait plus que doubler les impacts sociaux du GATT 2000 sur les producteurs et sur les consommateurs dans la plupart des régions, par comparaison au scénario de base. Ces impacts pourraient se chiffrer entre 2 et 5 milliards de dollars. Des calculs modélisés, il ressort que l'Union Européenne resterait lourdement protégée, même après l'extension de l'AAUR jusqu'en 2005 et que ses producteurs laitiers seront ceux qui auront le plus à perdre d'une libéralisation plus radicale du commerce àl'expiration de l'Accord. En revanche, les producteurs laitiers des régions exportatrices à faibles coûts de production, comme la Nouvelle-Zélande, l'Australie et la partie méridionale de l'Amérique du Sud sont ceux qui auront le plus à gagner. Les impacts de GATT 2005 sur le Japan, sur les États-Unis et sur le Canada seraient relativement peu importants.     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

An Economic Analysis of the Effects of the Uruguay Round Agreement and Full Trade Liberalization on the World Dairy Sector

A dairy trade model of the world dairy economy is developed. The model incorporates the allocation of milk fat and solids- nonfat among dairy commodities in a spatial equilibrium context. The model is used to simulate the market equilibrium impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement and full free trade in the world dairy sector, including prices, production, consumption and trade flows. The free trade results indicate average world prices for farm milk near current U.S. levels, while farm milk prices in western Europe, Japan and Canada fall by 25.8%, 36.4% and 32.3%, respectively. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand farm milk prices rise by 22.5% and 50.8%, respectively.
Un modèle de l'économic laitière mondiale est développé. Le modèle analyse l'allocation spatiale du lait, de ses composantes (c'est-à-dire, matière grasse, protéine) et des produits laitiers. Il est utilisé pour simuler les effets de l'accord de l'Uruguay et de la libéralisation des marchés sur l'économie laitière, y compris sur les prix, la production, la consommation et les échanges commerciaux. Les résultats indiquent qu'en présence de marchés libres, les prix mondiaux seraient proches des prix courants aux États-Unis, alors que leprix du lait diminuerait de 25,8 %, 36,4 % et 32,3 % en Europe de l'Ouest, au Japan et au Canada, respectivement. Par contraste, le prix du lait en Australie et en Nouvelle Zélande augmenterait respectivement de 22,5 % et 50,8 %.     

Impacts of regulating greenhouse gas emissions on livestock trade flows

Policies regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to create a significant burden on emitting industries as well as final consumers, which can lead to a strong influence on international trade flows of commodities. This study examines whether the regulation of GHG emissions affects livestock trade flows. A commodity‐specific gravity model approach is employed to estimate and test the impact of regulating GHG emissions on livestock trade flows. The results show that regulation of GHG emissions has a negative effect on livestock trade flows from countries restricting GHG emissions to countries without GHG restriction, from restricting countries to restricting countries, and unrestricting countries to restricting countries.     

世界水产品贸易变动分析

论文利用FAO渔业统计数据及COMTRADE数据并经整理,分析了1996～2010年世界水产品贸易,结果表明：世界水产品的进口市场主要在发达国家,而出口市场则为广大的发展中国家;生鲜水产品仍然占据着重要地位,水产深加工品的贸易地位不断上升,而初加工品的地位不断下滑;世界水产品进口市场集中度在不断下降;日本在世界水产品进口中的比重在不断下降,欧盟则不断上升,中国在世界水产品出口市场中的地位在不断上升,但出口的增速则在下降。最后．提出促进中国水产品出口的政策建议。     

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two‐factor model available in the literature.     

Post–Uruguay Round price linkages between developed and developing countries: the case of rice and wheat markets

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets. However, the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets. This study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post–Uruguay Round period. Prices of two key commodities, long‐grain rice and medium‐hard wheat, are assembled for major exporters and producers. Results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post–Uruguay Round period. Developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets, and in most cases, changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries. Developing countries (e.g., Vietnam and Argentina) have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries' prices.     

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Liberalisation: The Uruguay Round and Common Agricultural Policy Reform

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of the Uruguay Round (UR) and CAP reform. Detailed attention is given to the impact of the agricultural components of the UR and of the CAP reform on the agricultural and food-processing sectors of the EU. The CGE model used, while based on the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, uses a more detailed representation of the UR and CAP policy changes than is usual in GTAP analyses of the UR effects. In so doing it assumes a degree of specificity of factors used in agriculture and makes appropriate agricultural policy variables endogenous. Finally, it assesses the consequences of assuming imperfect competition in all non-agricultural sectors.