Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations

We derive the quantitative implications of growth theory for U.S. corporate equity plus net debt over the period 1960–2001. There were large secular movements in corporate equity values relative to GDP, with dramatic declines in the 1970's and dramatic increases starting in the 1980's and continuing throughout the 1990's. During the same period, there was little change in the capital–output ratio or earnings share of output. We ask specifically whether the theory accounts for these observations. We find that it does, with the critical factor being changes in the U.S. tax and regulatory system. We find that the theory also accounts for the even larger movements in U.K. equity values relative to GDP in this period.     

Sexual identity and the lesbian earnings differential in the U.S.

Two decades of research on wage differentials by sexual orientation uses data-sets that do not ask respondents about their own sexual orientation, even though sexual identity is key to theories that explain why a wage differential might exist. We show that many women who claim a lesbian identity for themselves are not classified as lesbian by researchers using the behavioral proxies typically available in the data. Conversely, many women who describe themselves as heterosexual are classified as lesbian because they report sexual experiences with women. Misclassification may lead to erroneous conclusions about changes in labor market outcomes. The results highlight the need to develop robust methods for collecting data on sexual identity and for more research on the interrelationship between sexual identity and behavior, especially occupational choice.     

An analysis of accounting measures on the performance of U.S. international corporations

Accounting measures (earnings and cash flow) have been shown to affect market performance (stock price) in U.S. firms operating domestically. In general, earnings have statistically significant explanatory power of stock price movement, albeit superior to cash flow. However, U.S.-based international corporations consolidate earnings from foreign operations. Consolidation can report significant gains (losses) from foreign transactions, as well as from the translation of foreign assets and liabilities, as currency exchange rates flucturate. Researchers are divided over the impact, if any, that such gains (losses) have on stock price. Indeed, gain (loss) is not realized until foreign currency is converted into the parent firm's functional currency. Foreign operations may accumulate assets and foreign currency even while U.S. exchange rates decline. Stock analysts may consider all currencyadjusted data to be unreliable and prefer simple data such as sales. Currency-adjusted accounting measures may or may not influence market performance.     

美国反倾销税吸收调查问题初探

倾销是一种国际价格歧视,即一国(地区)的生产商或出口商在正常贸易过程中,低于其国内市场价格,甚至低于成本价格,向另一国(地区)推销商品,对进口国市场冲击巨大,为此许多国家都实施了反倾销措施。“反倾销作为当今发达国家最经常使用的保护国内产业的有效手段可以追溯到关税与贸易总协定时期,它被视为国外产品以不公平的低廉价格进入国内市场的武器”。     

Considering the nuclear option: Hidden benefits and social costs of nuclear power in the U.S. since 1970

Although burning fossil fuels has environmental consequences, many countries have switched away from nuclear power in favor of fossil-fuel fired electricity production after incidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima. This study estimates the substitution between nuclear and fossil-fuel fired electricity generation in the United States. Using an event-study framework, we leverage nuclear plant openings from 1970 to 1995 and forced nuclear plant outages from 1999 to 2014. Plant openings (nuclear outages) reduce (increase) monthly net coal-fired generation by approximately 200 GWh, implying a considerable reduction (increase) in emissions. We find that the substitution between nuclear and coal is not one-to-one, as has been assumed in prior literature. After establishing these stylized facts, we explore the potential underlying forces driving the observed substitution between coal and nuclear.     

Taxes and entrepreneurial risk-taking: Theory and evidence for the U.S.

How does the tax law affect individual incentives to engage in entrepreneurial risk taking? We first show theoretically that taxes can affect incentives due to differences in tax rates on business vs. wage income, due to differences in the marginal tax rates faced on losses vs. profits through a progressive rate structure and through the option to incorporate, and due to risk sharing with the government. We then provide empirical evidence using U.S. individual tax return data that each of these aspects of the tax law have clear effects on individual behavior, and together have had large effects on the amount of entrepreneurial risk taking.     

Managed care and U.S. hospitals' capital costs

This study examined the effects of managed care organizations (MCOs) on the yields paid by U.S. hospitals on newly issued debt. The analysis improved on existing studies by utilizing a two-stage method that compensated for both simultaneity and self-selection effects. A reduced form probit analysis was first used to identify the factors determining whether hospitals in a random sample of 717 issued new debt in the study period (1995 and 1996). Bond yields were then analyzed using a second stage reduced form regression, incorporating selection effects, for the subset of 58 hospitals that had issued fixed rate debt. The results demonstrated that MCOs had only a modest positive influence on hospitals' costs of capital. Of greater import were insurance status, length of stay, and teaching status, with investors demanding greater yields for bonds issued without insurance and from hospitals with either longer lengths of stay or medical residency programs.     

Gender earnings inequality in the service and manufacturing industries in the U.S.

This paper compares earnings inequality between women and men in a growing sector of the U.S. economy – the service sector, and a shrinking sector – manufacturing. We examine the hypothesis that deindustrialization will reduce inequality, and find that the absolute magnitude of the gender earnings gap is, in fact, smaller in the service sector. Decomposition analysis is used to partition the gender earnings gap into three parts: (1) earnings differences due to differences in mean characteristics – such as education and experience; (2) earnings differences due to preferential treatment of men; and (3) earnings differences due to disadvantageous treatment of women. The latter two constitute estimates of gender discrimination. The results of this study suggest that, ceteris paribus, deirndustrialization will likely reduce the gender gap in hourly earnings. However, this will come at the cost of lower earnings for both males and females, with the drop in earnings being particularly large for males. While deindustrialization is predicted to reduce the absolute magnitude of male-female earnings inequality, evidence suggests that gender discrimination will persist – discrimination explains about 60 percent of the gender wage gap in both the service and the manufacturing sectors.     

Shadow prices and pollution costs in U.S. agriculture

We use the directional output distance function to derive estimates of production inefficiency, shadow prices for polluting outputs, and the associated pollution costs. Using a quadratic functional form for the directional output distance function and data for the U.S. agricultural sector during 1960–1996, we find that the pollution costs (the shadow values) from the runoff and leaching of pesticides are 6% of crop and animal revenues and are highest in the Midwest and lowest in the Western states. If states were to reduce technical inefficiency and operate on the production frontier, pollution costs could be reduced by 7%.     

Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections

The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments on midterm congressional election outcomes during the 1946–2002 period are examined. Voters are found to take all of these, except taxes and transfers at the state and local government levels, into account in casting their ballots. However, the weights they place on each are found not to be the same. Consequently, the common practice of summarizing the economic conditions faced by voters through disposable income seems to be inappropriate. Also, omission of tax and transfer variables from the vote equation, and using vote swing rather than vote share as the dependent variable is found to result in underestimation of the coefficient of per capita GDP growth.     

The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S. immigration policy.

"The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate--modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates--has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized. These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity."     

Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility

In previous empirical work, the link between the interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and exchange rate volatility has mainly been analyzed by using data on press reports of BoJ interventions. We use official intervention data for the period 1993–2000 that were released only recently by the BoJ. We find a positive link between the interventions of the BoJ and the volatility of the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate. We also find that those BoJ interventions that were not reported in the financial press were positively correlated with exchange rate volatility.     

Dynamic lobbying: Evidence from foreign lobbying in the U.S. Congress

How do interest groups decide which member of Congress to target when decisions are made collectively? Do lobbying strategies change as legislation advances? Answering these questions is challenging due to a lack of systematic observations of lobbying contacts. I answer these questions using a novel data set constructed from reports submitted by lobbyists on behalf of South Korea regarding its free trade agreement with the United States for 10 years. I show that a diverse set of politicians are contacted but the timing, intensity, and strategy of lobbying contacts vary by politicians' institutional positions as well as their predisposed preferences for free trade.     

Market revaluations of foreign listings' reconciliations to U.S. financial reporting

The Securities and Exchange Commission requires foreign firms wishing to list their securities on the U.S. exchanges to convert their financial statements to U.S.-based generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) in a reconciliation filing known as Form 20-F. This paper extends prior research analyzing the importance of the SEC requirement by examining the value relevance to U.S. capital markets of Form 20-F reconciliation information under two additional hypotheses: investors' anticipation of the reconciliation, and investors' perception of foreign countries' enforcement and reliability in applying local accounting rules. It is argued that the information content of the Form 20-F reconciliation data is preempted (at least partially) on the date of foreign earnings announcements because of investor anticipation of these reconciliations. Therefore, only significant unanticipated reconciliations exhibit value relevance on the date of filing. In addition, investor perception of the reliability of the reconciliations and the degree of confidence in foreign authorities enforcing local GAAP also affect the value relevance of the reconciliation data. This study hypothesizes that reconciliations made by firms from countries with mature and developed capital markets should be more value relevant to U.S. investors. The results show that both unexpected foreign earnings and anticipated reconciliations to U.S. GAAP are significantly associated with unexpected market returns during the week of earnings announcements. The region of the foreign country is also significantly associated with market returns. However, unexpected reconciliations are not significantly associated with unexpected market returns during the week of Form 20-F filing.     

The Canada U.S. free trade agreement: Competitive tradeoffs between foreign direct investment and trade

This paper assesses the impact of the Canada U.S. Free Trade Agreement on exports and foreign direct investment of processed foods. Results indicate that U.S. exports to Canada more than doubled, while Canadian exports to the U.S. nearly doubled after the implementation of the Canada U.S. Free Trade Agreement in 1989. Regression results of the covariance model on panel data show that U.S. and Canadian food processing firms appear to use both exports and foreign direct investments as complementary market access strategies. This research was supported by a grant from the Canadian Embassy. In addition, the authors thank Carolyn Dimitri of the University of Maryland for helpful comments.     

国有银行改革的成本和收益

四家国有商业银行改革的成本和收益需从多角度来考察,从财务角度来看,四家银行通过剥离不良贷款,注资、股改上市带来巨大收益;从社会成本来看,高利差以及高不良贷款率意味着社会为国有商业银行支付较高的隐性成本;从历史角度来看,国有商业银行垄断国家金融业数十年,从理论上说,应当为出资人和国家贡献利润和超额利润,但是,高成本消耗了这种利润的大部分。总体来说,四家国有商业银行的改革是成功的,但并非四家国有商业银行的成功。     

美国经济失衡对美元汇率的影响

经济内部失衡或者外部失衡对汇率的影响都是不确定的,但是,当经济内外部同时失衡时,汇率贬值或政府干预外汇市场的可能性最大。实证结果支持了上述结论。当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,美元贬值或美国政府干预外汇市场的概率就会提高27个百分点。这意味着,通过汇率变动,美国将内部问题外部化了。理解了美元汇率变动的原因实际上也就理解了21世纪初期以来人民币面临升值压力的原因。     

U.S. farm dynamics and the distribution of U.S. agricultural subsidies

The persistent instability of the agricultural sector is the fundamental premise of most agricultural policy. Yet no research has ever quantified the aggregate dynamics of individual farms in the US. This article is the first to combine the US Census of Agriculture with the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to observe the dynamics of nearly 1.5 million farms. The data reveal substantial variation in farm size expansion and contraction. Most of this variation is unobservable in the sector totals reported by the US Department of Agriculture each year. The distribution of agricultural subsidies suggests that subsidies become more important as farms get smaller and may play a role in slowing farm size contraction.