西方贸易理论中的贸易利益分配问题及其对贸易政策的影响

在西方贸易理论中,自由贸易理论虽然论证了国际贸易能够改善资源配置并提高各国福利水平,但对贸易利益的国际分配的局所得到的结论比较模糊,而保护贸易理论则明确了贸易利益在不同国家之间分配是不平衡的;另一方面,自由贸易和保护贸易理论都认为贸易利益在一国内部各部门之间分配是不平衡的。由于两类理论的侧重点不同,对贸易政策的影响也不同。总体上看,由于一国政府是根据本国的政治经济利益和发展目标来制定贸易政策的,因此必然要考虑贸易利益在国家间以及在本国内部的分配问题,所以保护贸易理论往往比自由贸易理论对一国贸易政策有着更大的影响力。     

中美农业贸易的互补性研究

采用贸易结合度指数(TCD)、出口相似度指数(SI)和贸易互补性指数(TCI)等模型,根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)、美国FAS-Online和中国海关数据库的数据,对中美两国16种主要出口农产品的互补性进行了定量分析。结果显示:(1)中美两国农业贸易依存度逐步提高,美国对中国的依赖程度高于中国对美国的依赖程度。(2)中美两国农业贸易具有良好的互补性,中国入世后两国农业贸易互补性增强。基于上述研究结论,提出了互利双赢的政策建议。     

中美经贸的真正差额——基于货物贸易、服务贸易、双向投资全口径的分析

本文从中美货物贸易的现状入手,对中国和美国双边的货物贸易、服务贸易、直接投资等综合经贸关系进行研究,考虑到金融危机对贸易和投资数据的影响,文章实证部分以1986—2007年数据为样本,采用协整分析、误差修正模型(ECM)和格兰杰检验等计量方法,对外商对华直接投资(FDI)、美商对华直接投资(AFDI)的流量和存量与中美货物贸易进出口之间的关系分别进行计量实证。结果显示:中国虽然是美国货物贸易的巨额顺差国,但美国在服务贸易、对华投资等方面都具有绝对优势,且中国对美货物进口的减少很大程度上是美商对华直接投资增加的结果。因此,在中美双边经贸关系中,双方利益不仅在货物贸易,而且在双向投资、服务贸易等经济领域,赢利更多的是美国。     

贸易政策不确定性与中国城市居民的消费福利

本文构建理论模型,从产品价格角度分析贸易政策不确定性对消费者福利的影响,并以中国入世为准自然实验,进行实证分析。研究发现,如果不加入WTO,贸易政策不确定性会提高中国消费品价格,使中国城市居民的消费福利平均降低1.02%,但出口国间贸易政策不确定性的竞争降低了中国消费品的价格,使高收入城市居民的消费福利上升0.004%;收入越高的城市居民在贸易政策不确定性中所损失的消费福利越大,在出口国间贸易政策不确定性竞争中所获得的消费福利越大,主要原因是其对非农产品的支出份额较高;贸易政策不确定性对城市居民消费福利的影响主要是通过最终品进口来实现。这意味着通过稳定的贸易政策,比如签订区域贸易协定,能够增加消费福利,但也要关注由此带来的消费不平等问题。     

企业异质性、贸易自由化与市场扭曲

即使没有任何政策干预,市场本身的不完全也可能导致扭曲。本文在企业异质性框架下,构建包含Behrens类型需求结构的垄断竞争一般均衡模型,研究贸易自由化对市场扭曲程度的影响。通过比较静态分析,发现贸易自由化(市场规模扩张或者贸易成本下降)并没有减缓市场扭曲,这是因为,贸易自由化导致市场均衡福利和社会最优福利上升幅度相同。此外,随着一个经济体平均生产率的上升,会出现市场均衡福利上升和市场扭曲程度加剧并存的局面。进一步研究发现,理论模型得到的一般性结论同样适用于中国。本文的政策含义是,产业政策和贸易政策应该协调使用;随着一个经济体平均生产率的上升,产业政策的重要性加强。     

"一带一路"倡议能否缓解TPP对中国的 负面影响?

美国特朗普政府退出TPP并未使得该协议完全废除,美国以外的成员国正在谋求签署"全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"(CPTPP).美国TPP政策的调整会给中国带来怎样的影响亟待评估.面对TPP的冲击,中国正在推进的"一带一路"倡议能否成为缓解TPP负面影响的应对举措呢?文章采用全球多区域CGE模型,对TPP和"一带一路"的经济影响分别进行量化评估,对比分析不同政策的国际经济效应.研究发现:(1)从实际GDP和居民福利来看,无论美国是否退出TPP,中国都是该战略的重要损害国.(2)从贸易畅通视角推进"一带一路"有助于沿线国家的经济增长和福利水平改善,能够大幅缓解TPP对中国经济的负面冲击.(3)"一带一路"有助于中国高耗能行业的出口,钢铁行业、纺织服装业和化工行业的出口扩张效应尤其明显.(4)"一带一路"实施对韩国的负面影响较大,因此韩国若能加入该倡议,将使其获得显著的经济增长和福利改善.文章的研究结论既对促进"一带一路"的发展和扩张有积极作用,也为化解中国高耗能行业的产能过剩提供了有益参考.     

技术创新和竞争性垄断与战略贸易政策相互影响机理诠解

本文探讨在全球化背景下，技术创新、战略贸易政策和竞争性垄断增进贸易利益的机理，分析影响贸易绩效的技术创新、贸易政策和竞争政策的相互影响机制的模型，阐明了在WTO框架下协调技术创新政策与竞争政策和贸易政策的问题，具有重要的现实意义。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区发展的福利影响分析

近年来，中国和东盟贸易合作的步伐不断加快，随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立，双方的双边贸易规模出现了显著增长，给参加自由贸易区的各国带来了巨大的贸易利益。这一切都将使中国和东盟各国的福利水平得到大幅提高。     

制度型开放与消费者福利增进——来自跨境电商综试区的证据

设立跨境电商综试区是中国推动制度型开放的重要举措。本文构建涵盖中国30个省市和34个国家的大型一般均衡模型，利用拓展的Head-Ries指数测算非对称贸易成本，运用结构估计方法首次量化评估了跨境电商综试区设立的消费者福利增进效应。研究发现：综试区设立可以同时提高国内消费者和国外消费者的福利水平；综试区设立的福利增进效应存在明显的地区异质性，东部地区单个综试区建设带来的边际福利增长明显高于中西部地区；由于低收入人群的农产品边际消费倾向更高，综试区设立对高收入人群的福利提升效应更大。总体上地区贸易壁垒越大，综试区建设的福利效应越高。理论机制上，综试区设立通过贸易份额和投入产出关联两个渠道提高消费者福利。本文研究对优化跨境电商综试区建设布局、更好地推动制度型开放具有重要启示意义。     

中美农产品产业内贸易研究

入世以来,中美之间的贸易额急剧增加,中国已经成为美国第3大农产品进口国,农产品贸易在两国经济往来中占有特殊的地位.近年来,中美农产品贸易不断呈现新的特点,同类(种)产品贸易也呈现出迅猛发展态势.这种以产业内贸易为特征的贸易模式也成为推动中美贸易增长的重要因素.本论文在综述国内外相关学术文献和研究成果,探讨有关产业内贸易理论研究的基础上,阐述中国与美国农产品贸易发展的政策背景、结构变动及存在的主要问题,并采用各种产业内贸易指数对中美农产品产业内贸易发展进行全面分析,并提出有利于中国农产品产业内贸易发展的有效政策和建议.     

贸易自由化是如何影响我国出口产品质量的？*--基于贸易政策不确定性下降的视角

传统理论认为贸易自由化会促进出口产品的质量升级,但我国加入W TO后的情况却并非如此。文章基于贸易政策不确定性的视角,利用我国加入W TO前后美国对我国产品进行关税调整这一自然实验,通过倍差法分析了贸易自由化对我国出口产品质量的影响。研究表明：（1）在贸易自由化的过程中,贸易政策不确定性的下降会拉低我国的出口产品质量,且这一结论在改变质量测度方法、控制成本效应以及使用不同的产品属性、贸易对象和样本的情况下依然稳健;（2）贸易政策不确定性主要是通过广延边际上的质量调整降低了我国出口产品的总体质量,即在贸易政策不确定性下降幅度越大的产品中,有越多的生产低质量产品的企业进入出口市场;（3）在集约边际上,存续企业并未针对贸易政策不确定性的下降做出及时的产品质量调整,从而无法改变我国的产品质量在短期内下降的趋势。文章为我国如何在推行贸易自由化的同时实现出口产品质量升级提供了启示。     

服务贸易的货物贸易条件效应研究——基于伯格斯模型的分析与扩展

文章基于伯格斯模型,分析检验了服务贸易的净进口与我国货物价格贸易条件恶化之间的关系,初步证明了该模型在我国的适用性。进一步地,文章对2004-2008年我国价格贸易条件恶化有所趋缓这一特征进行了分析。结果表明,不同服务部门的净进口对我国货物贸易条件的影响不尽相同。文章得出的政策启示在于:当考察我国服务业开放和服务贸易自由化的收益时,要同时注意到货物价格贸易条件恶化可能带来的福利损失;我国在制定服务业对外开放与服务贸易自由化发展战略时,采取逐步开放和参与的战略尤为重要;另外,可以优先加强对通信、建筑、计算机和信息服务、咨询以及电影音像五大类服务部门的扶持以促进其出口。     

Whose policy uncertainty affects commodity trade between Australia and the United States?

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news-based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long-run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States.     

中国对外贸易失衡的影响因素*——基于贸易增加值（TiVA）测算数据的实证分析

中国持续对外贸易顺差引起了学者们的广泛关注。然而现有文献大都基于传统贸易统计方法，没有考虑全球价值链背景下中间品多次跨越国界的重复计算问题，无法反映中国真实的贸易顺差水平。本文基于WIOD数据库1995-2011年的数据，采用投入产出领域的贸易增加值（TiVA）方法，测算出中国与38个贸易伙伴之间的增加值贸易顺差，并对其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现，中国加入WTO之前人民币汇率升值对贸易顺差的影响较小而且不显著，而加入WTO之后，人民币汇率升值可以有效降低中国的贸易顺差。在华FDI总额对贸易顺差的影响呈现出相似的特点，即加入WTO之前，总体FDI不显著，加入之后影响显著。FDI来源地区分析显示，美国和亚洲四小龙在中国内地FDI增加可以显著提升中国内地的贸易顺差，而日本和德国在华FDI则会降低中国内地的贸易顺差。     

Inequality and Trade Policy: The Pro‐Poor Bias of Contemporary Trade Restrictions

This paper studies the pro‐poor bias of trade policy in India by estimating the household welfare effects of removing the current protection structure. The elimination of a pro‐poor trade policy is expected to have a negative differential welfare effect at the low end of the distribution. The paper first constructs trade restrictiveness indexes for household consumption items and industries using both tariffs and non‐tariff barriers. The results indicate that Indian trade policy is regressive through the expenditure channel as it disproportionately raises the cost of consumption for poorer households, while it is progressive through the earnings channel. Based on the net welfare effects, the elimination of the current trade protection structure is estimated to reduce inequality. These results indicate that a trade policy that is progressive through the earnings channel may induce a price effect that is regressive through the expenditure channel.     

Imbalances over the Pacific

This paper examines various theories of current account (trade) imbalances between the U.S. and China, by estimating a structural VAR model with long-run zero restrictions. The factors that we examine include: productivity differential, fiscal policy, consumption/saving choice, and real and nominal demand side factors comprising monetary policy, and reserve accumulation. On average, technology shocks are found to play a dominant role in explaining the trade balance movement between China and the U.S. However, in the particular period of 2004–07 when global imbalances peaked, we find that demand shocks played an unusually large role. This contrast between the average tendency and the rather abnormal development in the mid-2000s provides general equilibrium evidence for several theories of current account (trade) balance imbalance. But it also shows that the experience of the mid-2000s does not have to repeat itself, given that it was an atypical development different from the average tendency.     

Environmental tariffs on polluting imports

This paper examines the implications for the use of trade measures as weapons to address global environmental concerns. There are already proposals in the U.S. senate to impose an environmental tariff against foreign nations whose cost advantages stem from less stringent environmental standards than the U.S. The paper argues that trade policy measures typically are not the first best instruments for achieving environmental objectives. Even theoretically they could be shown to be welfare improving only under a very narrow range of circumstances. Their use in place of more efficient policy instruments may not only end up distorting the patterns of world trade but also may worsen the overall patterns of environmental quality. Simulation exercises undertaken here suggest that it is highly unlikely that countries would alter their environmental behavior because of the imposition of the proposed U.S. tariff. Hence the proposed legislation has very uncertain environmental consequences. Even if the policy has been mainly designed to protect domestic industries, it would only provide a minor margin of protection because the costs of complying with the environmental standards represent a relatively small element in the total costs. The analysis suggests that trade policy introduced in this fashion will have no significant impact on the patterns of world trade and pollution.     

The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

美国在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响研究

20世纪90年代以来,美国在华直接投资额呈迅速上升趋势,中美贸易规模也不断扩大,与此同时,两国的贸易差额也逐年增大,双边贸易的不平衡加剧了贸易摩擦。本文首先从美国在华投资对中美贸易差额所产生的各种效应阐述了中美贸易失衡的原因,然后通过实证分析得出美国在华直接投资与中美贸易顺差之间存在长期协整关系的结论,即美国在华直接投资是导致中美贸易顺差的决定性因素。最后提出缓解中美贸易不平衡的相关对策建议。