关于人力资本流动与聚集的认识与评述

人力资本聚集理论围绕着人力资本产生技术外溢,形成核心吸引力,解释人力资本为何出现马太效应。相对于传统人力资本流动理论以收入差为主要解释变量,聚集理论模型在解释中国人力资本流动现象上,更具有现实意义。在人力资本流动和聚集理论的综合评述基础上,针对中国人力资本空间配置不平衡现象提出相应的政策建议。     

统一增长理论研究述评

2000年以来,统一增长理论的兴起极大地丰富和发展了经济增长理论,其克服了马尔萨斯理论、新古典增长理论以及内生增长理论的不足,尝试为整个人类社会发展以及经济的内生转型提供合理的解释。本文首先介绍了统一增长理论关于人类发展不同阶段的特征分析,而后阐述了统一增长理论关于经济内生转型的观点。在此基础上,介绍了统一增长理论关于农业起源、工业革命、人口转型、人力资本出现等问题的文献研究。本文旨在通过介绍这一领域文献研究的新进展,为国内学者研究统一增长理论提供一些研究线索。     

人力资本理论文献综述

20世纪60、70年代在西方兴起的人力资本理论推动了经济学的发展,增强了经济学对社会经济现象的解释力。随着改革开放,人力资本理论逐渐被介绍到国内,并渐渐被接受,运用范围不断拓展。本文将国内外关于人力资本理论的研究成果做了一个较为全面的理论综述,在弄清人力资本理论的研究思路和研究主线演变的同时,对人力资本理论进行一些较为深入的分析和评述,以期对我国的人力资本理论的研究提供一些有益的探索与借鉴。     

西方就业理论演进的历史轨迹及启示

西方就业理论从18世纪人口与资源均衡发展的思想萌芽开始,到20世纪90年代至今,有古典经济学派人口均衡发展思想、新古典经济学派就业理论、凯恩斯的就业理论、发展经济学的就业理论、人力资本与就业理论、新古典综合派就业理论、新凯恩斯主义就业理论、新自由主义的反古典经济学派就业理论等诸多经济学流派和就业理论体系。各学派深入探讨产生失业的原因,并形成各自颇具特色的就业理论。回顾和梳理西方就业理论的历史演变轨迹,对解决当前中国的就业问题,具有前瞻指导意义和参考价值。     

浅议人力资本理论及其发展

兴起于西方的人力资本理论推动了经济学的发展，增强了经济学对社会经济现象的解释力。国外人力资本理论侧重于从宏观方面研究人力资本投资问题。国内学者对人力资本的内涵与外延做了进一步拓展，特别是人力资本产业理论的提出，使人力资本研究与企业理论逐步走向融合。通过静态与动态的比较研究不难发现，由于人力资本研究范畴的局限性，人力资本产权理论并不能很好地解决企业治理面临的困顿状态。社会人力资本及其产权概念的提出将为进一步研究人力资本与企业治理的融合问题提供新的视角。     

莫把教育办成“老鼠赛”

对于教育的功能,经济学主要有两类解释。一是由舒尔茨、贝克尔等人所倡导的人力资本理论,认为教育能够提高人们的劳动生产率,进而有助于经济增长和社会发展。二是由斯宾塞、阿克洛夫、斯蒂格利茨等人所倡导的信号传递或信息甄别理论,其中教育的主要功能不是提高人力资本,     

中国省际人力资本的核算：1987—2003

近年来,人力资本被广泛地应用于对经济增长的解释,人力资本存量的度量也越来越受到关注。度量人力资本有很多指标,文章采用15-64岁人口的平均受教育年限来代表人力资本存量,得出了我国1987-2003年省际人力资本存量的一个时间序列。结果显示,在分析周期内,我国人力资本存量总体上呈缓慢上升的趋势,1999年以后的下降是我国人口政策的结果。     

人力资本分配与国际贸易关系理论研究新进展

自上世纪90年代以来,从人力资本角度研究贸易活动逐渐成为国际经济学领域一个新途径,最新研究更进一步从人力资本分配角度分析贸易现象:从人力资本分配角度解释贸易模式,研究人力资本分配对贸易后收入分配和贸易各国福利影响,以及政府政策在改善贸易引发的收入不平等状况中的作用。本文归纳、评述了这些研究成果,并提出了今后的研究重点。     

城市劳动参与率变迁与中国加工贸易升级——基于出口国内附加值率的经验研究

本文重点关注人口结构转型背景下的加工贸易升级问题,探讨了城市劳动供给对中国加工贸易出口国内附加值率的影响。研究结论显示,人口结构转型因素对加工贸易升级具有重要的解释力,城市劳动参与率下降显著促进了加工贸易出口国内附加值率提高。这一促进作用随着用工成本的上升而逐步弱化,即人口结构影响的用工成本渠道,同时也随着人力资本水平提升而逐步弱化,即人口结构影响的人力资本渠道。拓展性研究还发现,劳动参与率下降所引致的加工贸易升级主要是通过"优胜劣汰"的选择效应来实现的;在人口老龄化背景下,随着劳动供给绝对量的下降,人口流动所造成的局部地区劳动力相对充沛也不能促进加工贸易的发展;劳动供给下降对劳动需求更高、加工贸易出口占比更大的行业的不利作用更强。本文的结论表明,面对人口结构渐趋老龄化的不利冲击,通过提升劳动力技能促进人力资本积累是应对用工成本上升的重要途径。     

基于制度变迁视角的我国市场经济道德失范研究

新制度经济学的制度变迁理论是解释市场经济转型过程中道德失范的新视角。在市场经济转型过程中,市场经济制度的急剧性变迁、市场经济制度的偏失、市场经济某些制度建立的"时滞性"以及市场经济制度激励不足等现象是造成道德失范的主要诱因,要不断完善市场经济制度,提供有效的制度供给以解决道德失范问题。     

Theoretical problems of demographic policy in the USSR

The recent emphasis in the USSR on long-range economic and social planning, as well as the country's current demographic situation, necessitates the adoption of demographic policies to create the type of population reproduction which is in the longterm interest of the society. Socioeconomic policies may have bothnegative and positive effects on demographic processes, and these effects may be delayed for 25 years or more. In the past, when economic and social plans covered only 5-year periods, the impact of these plans on demographic factors could be ignored. In longterm planning these consequences cannot be ignored. Population policies must address the longterm consequences of socioeconomic development, the regional variations in population parameters, and the complexities of the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors. As socialist societies evolve they eventually reach a stage where it is necessary to develop a theory and a methodolgy for managing demographic processes. The development of appropriate demographic goals and policies will require the cooperation of not only demographers, but of medical professionals, sociologists, and economists. The initial tasks of a goal oriented population program should be to stabilize the birth rate, to prevent further declines in fertility rates, to increase life expectancy to its biological limits, to reduce death rates, to equalize regional living standards, to control immigration, and to improve resettlement programs. Eventually policymakers must address the problem of developing an optimal and uniform level of reproduction for the nation as a whole. An organization structure, both at the national and regional level for developing and implementing the population program must be specified. Regional programs must be coordinated at the national level and developed in accordance with national goals.     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.      

The Complementary Relationship Between Institutional and Complexity Economics: The Example of Deep Mechanismic Explanations

Analyzing economic systems from an evolutionary-institutional or a complexity perspective are two complementary approaches to economic inquiry. I discuss three arguments in favor of this hypothesis: (i) eminent institutional economists have examined the economy as what today could be considered a complex system; (ii) complexity economists lack meta-theoretical foundations which could be provided by institutionalist theory; and (iii) institutional economists could benefit from using methods of complexity economics. In this context, I argue that scholars considering the economy to be complex should seek to explain it by discovering social mechanisms instead of focusing on prediction. In order to distinguish between alternative explanations, scholars should refer to the deepness of an explanation, rather than to Occam’s razor.     

The Sahel: A Malthusian Challenge?

The population of the least developed countries of the Sahel will more than triple from 100 million to 340 million by 2050, and new research projects that today’s extreme temperatures will become the norm by mid-century. The region is characterized by poverty, illiteracy, weak infrastructure, failed states, widespread conflict, and an abysmal status of women. Scenarios beyond 2050 demonstrate that, without urgent and significant action today, the Sahel could become the first part of planet earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources. National governments and the international community can do a great deal to ameliorate this unfolding disaster if they put in place immediate policies and investments to help communities adapt to climate change, make family planning realistically available, and improve the status of girls and women. Implementing evidence-based action now will be an order of magnitude more humane and cost-effective than confronting disaster later. However, action will challenge some long held development paradigms of economists, demographers, and humanitarian organizations. If the crisis unfolding in the Sahel can help bridge the current intellectual chasm between the economic commitment to seemingly endless growth and the threat seen by some biologists and ecologists that human activity is bringing about irreversible damage to the biosphere, then it may be possible also to begin to solve this same formidable problem at a global level.     

数字化转型研究知识结构与热点趋势

随着信息通信技术的渗透扩散,数字化转型已成为重要研究方向之一,把握数字化转型研究热点和趋势,可为未来研究提供指引和参考。针对WOS数据库935篇文献,运用CiteSpaceV进行可视化分析,探索数字化转型领域的知识结构、热点和趋势。结果表明,数字化转型研究高产国家为美国、德国和英国,高产机构为哥本哈根商学院、瓦萨大学、麻省理工学院等,《TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange》是发表文章最多的期刊,研究热点包括“信息技术、组织变革和绩效”、“工业4.0和数字化转型”与“商业模式创新”等。关键词突现分析表明,以客户为中心的商业模式创新和新的价值创造方式是新趋势。最后,从前因—过程—结果三方面提出数字化转型研究内容框架与未来展望。     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

库兹涅茨假说可以解释中国的收入差距变化吗

本文利用中国的数据对经济增长与收入分配的关系进行了经验分析。分析结果没有对库茨涅兹的"倒U型假说"给予足够的支持。中国农村内部、城镇内部和城乡之间的收入差距及其变化特点有其自身的特点,需要从经济发展因素、经济体制转型的因素和政策因素上加以解释。     

The Political Economy of US Aid to Pakistan

Variations of bilateral aid flows are difficult to explain on the basis of official development objectives or recipient need. Based on the example of US aid to Pakistan, this paper suggests alternative political economic explanations, notably the relevance of ethnic lobbying and the relevance of US business interests. Time series regressions for the period from 1980 to 2002 and logistic regressions based on votes for the Pressler and the Brown Amendment confirm the significance of these political economic determinants. While in case of the Pressler Amendment, the direct influence of population groups of Indian and Pakistani origins seems to have played a predominant role, the role of ethnic business lobbies appears to have dominated in the context of the Brown Amendment. Time series analysis also provides some evidence for the impact of US business interests based on FDI and exports, but these effects appear to be comparatively small.     

EARNJNGS INEQUALITY IN PORTUGAL: HIGH AND RISING?

The level of earnings inequality and its change during the 1980s in Portugal are analyzed, relying on several inequality measures and on international comparisons to generate insight into their patterns. A high level of inequality at the beginning of the eighties is detected, together with a pronounced rise in wage dispersion, brought about by growing inequality at the top. Changes taking place within economic activities, possibly technical progress, are the main forces driving these changes in the wage pattern, while demographic forces, as well as international trade, which could have generated shifts in the demand for labor across economic activities, should be dismissed as explanations for the rise in labor market inequality in Portugal from 1983 to 1992.