基于效用成本风险异质性的消费资本资产定价模型

资产定价既是现代金融的核心,也是许多困惑之所在,其中最著名的就是股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜。本文对消费资本资产定价模型中的效用成本做了重新思考,引入"效用成本风险异质性"的概念,并将效用成本区分为"消费效用成本"和"风险效用成本"。在此基础上,本文提出了消费资本资产定价模型的新形式,并对股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜进行解释。     

有违约风险权益定价理论评述

有违约风险权益的定价理论在许多金融领域有极高的应用价值。一是在给资本市场产品如现在国际市场发展较快的信用衍生品定价中非常有效;二是可以帮助公司风险管理人员更好地识别信用风险暴露,更深入地进行金融风险分析,从而能更好地优化公司融资决策。还有一个特别重要的应用领域是,可以为公司债务重组和杠杆公司破产决策提供理论解释。     

理性定价、选择偏差与消费资本资产定价谜团——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜的存在集中反映了收益与风险不对等的关系,对现代金融理论的理性定价思想构成强有力的挑战,是消费资本资产定价模型实证检验中急待解决的难题。本文以中国1991年至2003年期间的证券市场为研究对象,讨论了研究方法的选择偏差对两大谜团可能产生的影响。实证研究发现:由于存在研究方法的选择偏差,两大谜团存在与否的结论本身不具备很强的稳定性和可靠性,并不能为理性定价学派与非理性定价学派孰是孰非提供直接的证据。     

基于风险补偿的企业债券定价研究

在有效市场中,企业债券的超额收益是对其所面临的风险可能导致损失的补偿,企业债券的理论价格是表征资金时间价值的无风险收益率和风险溢价的函数。根据市场无风险收益率、违约风险溢价,以及流动性风险溢价所遵循的随机波动方程,并考虑债券的违约回收率,本文构建了基于风险补偿的企业债券理论价格模型,并对2006年第3季度至2010年第1季度中国债券市场中32只企业债券的实际价格和理论价格进行了实证检验。研究发现,绝大多数企业债券的实际价格与理论价格差异不大,但少数中长期债券的实际价格系统性地低于理论价格;公用事业类企业债券的价格对市场信息不够敏感;我国债券市场上存在较多的套利资金。最后从所做的研究中,得出了完善我国债券市场的一些启示。     

完善我国商业银行贷款定价的思考

我国商业银行贷款定价机制与利率市场化要求之间的具体差距。授权管理体制僵化,市场化程度不高,管制程度较高。要充分利用管制利率向市场化利率转轨的过渡时期,采取有效措施,逐步建立完善的贷款定价机制,建立一个以贷款基准收益率为出发点,以贷款风险溢价为核心,兼顾市场价格水平以及银行与客户的整体业务关系的综合定价方法。     

银行卡刷卡消费定价模型研究

银行卡刷卡消费定价模型以刷卡消费网络系统整体发展为目标,能够有效地协调银行卡刷卡消费中各主体的不同目标,克服了单一模型的局限性.通过协调价格结构与刷卡消费,能够获得发卡行、收单行、商户、消费者和网络运营商整体效用最大时的价格结构值以及剧卡消费值,从而克服了现有研究中决策主体单一化等缺陷,放松了现有研究的假设条件.同时,该模型考虑了银行卡刷卡消费网络的双边市场特征,与其他方法相比具有重要的创新性和实用性.     

考虑了将来消费和投资需求的金融资产定价模型

考虑了将来消费和投资需求的金融资产定价模型何向华投资者用一定数量的货币购买证券,在持有一定时间后,投资者出售他以前购买的证券,把得到的收益用于消费或投资。开始购买金融资产的时间为ｔ－１,投资结束的时间为ｔ。在ｔ－１时,投资者必须作出购买资产决策,并持...     

带有价格波动项的行为资产定价模型研究--投资与消费之间的均衡分析

文章根据我国股市的特点,对Barberis、Huang和Santos(2001)的模型进行了改进,推导出了带有波动项的行为资产定价模型.并用该模型对西方7国无风险利率及股票溢价进行了检验,发现该CCAPM模型不能解释我国证券市场的溢价现象,Mehra和Prescott(1985)发现的"股票溢价之谜"在我国同样存在.相比以前的分析方法,文章所考虑的模型比较符合我国证券市场的特征.文章最后利用经修正的模型对我国股票市场的溢价进行了分析.     

论消费习惯及其对资产定价的影响

传统的资产定价理论通常假设投资者的效用函数是跨时可加的,并且假设投资者每期的效用由本期的消费水平确定,这就是典型的基于消费的资产定价模型。这种模型所导出的结论遭到实证结果强有力的挑战,其中具有代表性的有“股权溢价之谜”、“消费平滑之谜”和“无风险利率之谜”等。为了解释这些“难解之谜”,一种典型的做法是对传统的跨时可加的效用函数进行修改,消费习惯的引进是其中最具代表性的方法。本文试图对这一方法进行综述,对消费习惯的经济含义进行分析,并进一步分析消费习惯对资产定价的影响     

灾难与风险溢价之谜：最新研究进展评述

“风险溢价之谜”在资产定价理论中占有举足轻重的地位,自MehraandPrescott（1985）提出这个谜以来,尽管已有大量的研究,这个谜却一直没能得到很好的解释。而Rietz—Barro等将罕见灾难引入资产定价模型,不仅完美地解释了高风险溢价和低无风险利率之谜,而且学者们进一步引入广义预期效用和可变灾难．同时将灾难的解释范围扩展到股票、债券、期权等金融资产的定价和价格波动之谜,解决了传统金融理论所无法解释的众多宏观金融难题。更为重要的是,通过引入系统性风险,真实经济周期理论和资产定价理论有了新的突破,从而打开了一扇融合现代宏观经济学和金融学的大门。     

企业家才能定价问题研究

在市场经济环境中,企业家的才能对确定企业方向、推动企业发展至关重要。但是,我国经济学界对企业家才能定价问题研究不够重视,致使企业家获得报酬的合理标准难以确定,企业家的工作积极性受挫,也抑制了企业的快速发展。本文分析了企业家才能的重要性、定价的难点及解决的途径,以期引起专家学者的重视,促进我国企业界人士对这一问题认识的深化,推动我国企业的健康发展。     

Optimal Investment Strategy in Safe-region on Consumption and Portfolio Problem

This paper investigates an optimal investment strategy on consumption and portfolio problem, in which the investor must withdraw funds continuously at a given rate. By analyzing the evolving process of wealth, we give the definition of safe-region for investment. Moreover, in order to obtain the target wealth as quickly as possible, using Bellman dynamic programming principle, we get the optimal investment strategy and corresponding necessary expected time. At last we give some numerical computations for a set of different parameters.     

居民消费、自然储蓄与资产价格

凯恩斯的储蓄一投资恒等式忽视了消费者的储蓄行为的重要信息,是导致CCAPM遭遇实证难题的重要原因之一,本文结合储蓄理论来改进CCAPM。储蓄理论的研究对象是居民可支配收入中既不购买消费品,也不购买投资品的“冗余”部分。这些收入“冗余”的数量与储蓄收益率（利率）无关,给消费者带来了直接的效用,笔者称之为自然储蓄。本文把自然储蓄加入到标准CCAPM的理论框架内,重新讨论自然储蓄、消费和资产价格之间的长期均衡关系,发现除基于消费的风险溢价以外,传统股权溢价还包括了基于储蓄的风险溢价,最后利用中国经济数据进行了实证检验,为理论模型提供了经验证据的支持。其他结论如下：自然储蓄抑制了消费者对金融资产的需求,这为发展中国家普遍出现的“超额储蓄”与欠发达金融市场并存的现象提供一种新的理论性解释;我国消费者的储蓄效用弹性远高于消费效用弹性,说明储蓄政策是比消费政策更为有效的资产市场调控手段。     

Regulating Private Infrastructure Investment: Optimal Pricing for Access to Essential Facilities

This paper analyzes optimal pricing for access to essential facilities in a competitive environment. The focus is on investment incentive issues arising from regulation under complete information. To that end, examining the provision of a natural monopoly infrastructure with unlimited capacity, it is shown that the fixed component of a regulated access price can be structured so as to induce a race between market participants to provide the infrastructure. An appropriate pricing formula can ensure that a single firm chooses to invest at the socially optimal time (taking into account producer and consumer surplus) despite the immediate access granted to rivals and the non-existence of government subsidies. Under the optimal pricing formula, firms choose their investment timing based on their desire to pre-empt their rivals. This pricing formula is efficient (a two part tariff), implementable ex post, and robust to alternative methods of asset valuation (replacement or historical cost). When firms are not identical, the access pricing formula resembles, in equilibrium, a fully distributed cost methodology.     

Nonlinear Pricing, Redistribution, and Optimal Tax Policy

This paper examines the role of nonlinear pricing by public (or regulated) utilities as a redistributive mechanism in presence of an optimal nonlinear income tax. It models an economy with many types of persons who differ in two unobservable characteristics (earning abilities and tastes). We show that nonlinear pricing does have a redistributive role; it is not a substitute for an ill-designed tax policy. We prove, assuming separable preferences, that a person whose valuation of the public sector output is smaller than the average valuation of the population (all measured at the same consumption bundle) must face a marginal price for the good above its marginal cost. Further assuming that tastes and earning abilities are perfectly correlated, we prove that everyone must face a marginal price for the public sector's output which strictly exceeds its marginal cost if correlation is positive. These properties provide an economic rationale for the provision of "support for low-income consumers" as mandated by the universal service and similar regulatory policies. Finally, we show that with correlated characteristics, implementation can be achieved through two separate functions: a pricing function that depends only on the public sector output and a tax function that depends only on income.     

Pricing of Transport Networks,Redistribution, and Optimal Taxation

The author studies optimal pricing of roads and public transport in the presence of nonlinear income taxation. Individuals are heterogeneous in unobservable earning ability. Optimal transport tariffs depend on time costs of travel and work schedule adjustments (days and hours worked per day) as a response to commuting costs. The author finds that discounts for low‐income individuals are optimal only if the time cost of a trip is small enough. Lower travel time costs facilitate screening; therefore, redistribution provides an additional motive for congestion pricing. Finally, the study investigates the desirability of means‐testing of transport tariffs.     

Money,Investment and Consumption: Keynes's Macroeconomics Rethought

The dominant supply-side foundation for explanations of the growth potential of an economy is losing its persuasive power in the face of persistent losses in output and employment experienced by mature economies in the aftermath of the financial crisis. There is now an opening for eclectic approaches that consider the interaction between supply-side and demand-side factors in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. In this paper, we develop a model that reflects such an approach to interpreting differential productivity growth over the long run, and then present empirical results for several countries. On the supply-side, the model considers the linkage between the intensity and efficacy of the accumulation process and the gains of productivity in terms of a Kaldorian Technical Progress Function. Then, drawing on the Evsey Domar's Keynesian notion of dynamic equilibrium as the growth rate that reconciles additions to capacity with the absorption of aggregate output by demand, we derive a locus for a ‘Domar equilibrium path’. Imbalances caused by excess aggregate supply or demand, and by the effects of ‘shocks’ are presented and discussed using a simple graphical framework. In the empirical analysis, an error-correction model is applied to the fundamental relationship between the rate of growth of product per work-hour and the rate of capital accumulation. The results suggest that the differences in productivity growth among countries are can be explained in terms of the efficiency of their ‘accumulation paths’.     

跨国企业投资、政府招商行为与最优引资政策选择

通过构建一个以东道国利益为核心的博弈理论分析模型,从静态与动态两个方面对跨国企业投资与东道国政策选择之间的均衡问题进行了研究.研究结果发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,东道国外资优惠政策的最优水平与资本缺口的大小以及对外资需求的迫切程度成正比,与投资环境的优越程度成反比.因此,对于东道国而言,外资政策应朝向合理、有效且注重优化投资环境的方向发展.     

Optimal Intertemporal Consumption and Involuntary Memories of Consumption

Recent studies introduce the notion of treating autobiographical memories of past pleasurable experiences as assets and expanding the discounted utility model to include the utility of memories of past consumption. Recent studies in psychology have found that involuntary autobiographical memories are common in everyday life. This paper builds on these two strands in the literature by expanding the discounted utility model to include the utility of involuntary memories of past consumption. Optimal control theory is used to develop a continuous‐time optimal consumption model that takes into account the fact that consumption may generate involuntary memories that arrive at random times. The model is used in an in‐depth analysis of optimal consumption with memories. It is shown that memories shift consumption to earlier times. This effect gets weaker as the time horizon gets longer, and it vanishes entirely when the time horizon is infinite.     

扩大内需:投资、消费问题及对策

出口和消费是拉动经济增长的两大要素,我国外贸出口的拉动作用功不可没,但随着社会条件的变化,很难再有更大的突破,就目前和今后一段相当长的时期看,应对经济增长战略及手段进行改变,要以扩大内需为主要的基本方略和手段促进经济稳定增长和持续发展.投资是内需增长的重要引擎,我们应扩大产能,增加就业和财政收入,满足结构调整的需要,但要注意,投资过度会加大经济运行不稳定的风险,必须合理调控.消费是拉动内需增长的终极力量,它具有导向和反馈功能,对国民经济的运行具有决定性作用.扩大内需,必须完善消费的政策体系,推进与投资的互动.