Large investors’ portfolio composition and firms value

We analyze new Swedish data on the portfolio holdings of large blockholders and find that firm value increases with the weight of a stock in a large blockholder's portfolio. In our sample, this weight may be greater than 50%. We are the first to show that this value premium is correlated with portfolio weights for any large blockholders, not just institutions. We find some evidence that indicates that “stock importance” (high portfolio weight) can mitigate the negative effects of a dual-class structure on firm value. Further, it does not seem that a large blockholder's tenure as a CEO or as a board chairman affects this value premium. We conduct a variety of tests to rule out endogeneity and reverse causality.     

Textual risk disclosures and investors’ risk perceptions

We examine the association between changes in companies’ textual risk disclosures in 10-K filings and changes in stock market and analyst activity around the filings. We find that annual increases in risk disclosures are associated with increased stock return volatility and trading volume around and after the filings. Increases in risk disclosures are also associated with more dispersed forecast revisions around the filings. In contrast to prior literature documenting resolved uncertainties in response to various types of company disclosures, our findings suggest that textual risk disclosures increase investors’ risk perceptions. However, the results are less pronounced for firm-level disclosures that deviate from those of other companies in the same industry and year. These results lend support for critics’ arguments that firm-level risk disclosures are more likely to be boilerplate.     

How mutual fund investors’ objective and subjective knowledge impacts their information search and processing behaviour

Contrary to the popular belief that objective knowledge (OK) (that is, what is actually stored in the memory) and subjective knowledge (SK) (that is, what individuals perceive they know) differently impact information search and information-processing behaviour, an empirical study conducted on 268 mutual fund (MF) investors suggests no significant difference in the impact of OK and SK on the width and depth of information search and information processing. The study suggests that OK and SK significantly positively impact the width and depth of information search and information-processing behaviour, however, no significant difference exists in the way they impact. The possible explanation put forward is that even though MF investors may suffer from self-deception (that is, pseudo expertise) and report high knowledge (that is, high SK), the impact of SK on actual investment behaviour is not significantly different from that of OK. The implications of the findings are also discussed.     

How value–glamour investors use financial information: UK evidence of investors’ confirmation bias

This paper investigates how investors in value and glamour stocks use financial information. The empirical evidence presented is in line with a model of investors’ asymmetric reaction to good and bad news due to confirmation bias. Pessimistic value investors typically under-react to good financial information, while they process bad information rationally or over-confidently. On the contrary, glamour investors are often too optimistic to timely update prices following bad financial information, while they are likely to fairly price or even over-react when receiving good information.     

Institutional investors’ information seeking and stock price crash risk: nonlinear relationship based on management’s opportunistic behaviour

This paper examines the influence of management’s opportunistic behaviour on the relationship between institutional investors’ visits and stock price crash risk. We find that the relationship between visit frequency and stock price crash risk is inverted U-shaped because of management’s opportunistic behaviour aiming at avoiding the negative impacts of visit. Institutional investors’ visits raise stock price crash risk when visit frequency is low and it can reduce crash risk just when visit frequency is high enough. This nonlinear relationship is more significant when management’s opportunistic behaviour is highly motivated and the implementation space is larger.     

How financial information disclosure affects risk perception. Evidence from Italian investors’ behaviour

This paper investigates how different representations of financial information may be appraised in terms of complexity and usefulness, and how financial disclosure influences individuals’ risk perception. By using a consumer testing analytical approach, we run a survey on a sample of Italian investors: 254 bank customers were submitted 4 different templates, each combining a different typology of data (historical and prospective) and framing (words, numbers and charts) to indicate the same level of risk and return of four real-life financial instruments. Representation formats partially overlap with those mandated by regulators and used within the financial industry. Results show that the perceived riskiness of financial products is affected by the way information is disclosed. Perceived complexity of the financial information disclosure intensifies perception of riskiness of the product solicited. Gender, age, personal traits, behavioural biases and financial knowledge, do also play a role. Overall, given investors’ heterogeneity and behavioural biases, neither simplifying disclosure nor a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach may be sufficient to ensure correct risk perception and to prevent unbiased investment choices.     

Market states,expectations, sentiment and momentum: How naive are investors?

Following Cooper et al. (CGH) 2004 we test whether market states are relevant for predicting UK momentum profits. However, rather than simply categorising up/down markets based on actual prices as CGH, we suggest that investors may view expectations and/or sentiment as important. Contrary to the findings for the US, we find that momentum returns are not related to CGH-defined market states. Similar findings hold for an expectations-based split. In contrast, for the whole sample period, construction and retail sentiment indicators explain differences in momentum profits. However, robustness tests suggest that their explanatory power is driven by the post-subprime crisis period.     

The information content of retail investors’ order flow

In this paper, we provide evidence that the trading activity of small retail investors carries significant genuine information that can be exploited for the short-term out-of-sample forecasting of foreign exchange rates. Our findings are based on a unique dataset of around 2000 retail investors from the OANDA FXTrade electronic trading platform. Our results are consistent with the view that in the foreign exchange market private information is highly dispersed, but can be extracted by observing customer order flow. Previous studies, however, focused on the information content of costumer order flow of dealers in the interbank market, whose clients are themselves large institutional and professional investors. Our study is the first that analyzes a crowd of small retail investors and shows that even the trading activity of these investors contains, on aggregate, important non-public information that can be exploited for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Our findings lead us to conjecture that retail investors (on aggregate) are not pure noise traders but process dispersed information at least partially in a similar way as large institutional investors and hence place their orders accordingly.     

How much is enough? An investigation of nonprofessional investors information search and stopping rule use

Regulators are concerned that the information overload in the current Internet-based disclosure environment may cause investors to overlook important information. To gain a better understanding of the information set gathered by investors, this study incorporates theories from information systems research to examine the cognitive stopping rules used by investors to terminate information search. We survey nonprofessional investors to gain insight into what information they gather and when they determine they have enough information to stop searching and make an investment decision. Demographic analysis shows that investor characteristics are associated with the particular stopping rule used. In addition, results show that the stopping rule used affects the amount and type of information gathered. We find that, in general, investors include very little financial information in their search, and the amount gathered depends on the stopping rule employed. Our results call into question the decision usefulness of accounting information for nonprofessional investors and should be of interest to accounting information systems researchers, regulators, and accounting practitioners.     

Whose money is smart? Individual and institutional investors’ trades based on analyst recommendations

This study explores how institutional and individual investors respond to analyst recommendations. Using a unique account-level trading dataset taken from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we obtain direct evidence to show that (1) active institutional investors are significantly net buyers (net sellers) on “strong buy” and “buy” (“hold” and “sell”) recommendations; (2) active institutional investors condition their trades based on the buy-side pressure of analysts; (3) institutional investors earn abnormal returns by incorporating analysts’ buy-side pressure into their trading reactions to analyst recommendations; and (4) individual investors, in contrast, exhibit abnormal trade reactions opposite to those of active institutional investors. Our results are robust to alternative measures and different specifications. This study provides evidence that active institutional investors are more sophisticated processors of information and provides support for regulators’ concerns about the sub-optimal investment decisions made by individual investors who are unaware of the potential conflicts of interest analysts may face.     

Understanding investors’ reliance on disclosures of nonfinancial information and mitigating mechanisms for underreliance

This study uses two experiments to examine whether nonprofessional investors rely on voluntarily disclosed nonfinancial information (NFI) and the factors that affect their reliance on such information. Results from experiment one suggest that nonfinancial disclosure affects high-experience (long-term) investors more than low-experience (short-term) investors. In addition, more investing experience seems to compensate the insensitivity to NFI caused by a short-term investment horizon. Results from experiment two suggest that merely requiring participants to evaluate firms’ performance separately based on the financial and nonfinancial measures (NFMs) – or merely presenting the NFMs in a more readable format – does not significantly alter the reliance on the nonfinancial disclosure for low-experience and short-term investors. However, when the two interventions are implemented simultaneously, NFI significantly affects the amount invested by those investors.     

Investors’ aspirations and portfolio performance

Based on a large database of individual investors, I analyze the impact of personal financial goals on portfolio performance. I stress the role played by latent investor aspirations as defined in the Behavioral Portfolio Theory framework. I identify two opposite profiles of investors. High-aspirations investors trade more and hold riskier portfolios than the average investor. By contrast, low-aspirations investors are more diversified than the average investor. I find that when controlling for diversification, turnover and usual risk factors, high-aspiration investors underperform their peers, whereas low-aspirations investors outperform them.     

Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off

This paper studies the cross-sectional risk–return trade-off in the stock market. A fundamental principle in finance is the positive relation between risk and expected return. However, recent empirical evidence suggests the opposite. Using several intuitive risk measures, we show that the negative risk–return relation is much more pronounced among firms in which investors face prior losses, but the risk–return relation is positive among firms in which investors face prior gains. We consider a number of possible explanations for this new empirical finding and conclude that reference-dependent preference is the most promising explanation.     

Accounting information,disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?

Investors are said to “abhor uncertainty,” but if there were no uncertainty they could earn only the risk‐free rate. A fundamental result in the analytical accounting literature shows that investors buying into a CARA‐normal CAPM market pay lower asset prices, gain higher ex‐ante expected returns, and obtain higher expected utility, when the market payoff has higher variance. New investors obtain similar “welfare” gains from risk under a log/power utility CAPM. These results do not imply that investors “abhor information.” To realize investors' ex‐ante expectations, the subjective probability distributions representing market expectations must be accurate. Greater payoff risk can add to investors' expected utility, but higher ex‐post(realized) utility comes from better information and more accurate ex‐ante expectations. An important implication for accounting is that greater disclosure can have the simultaneous effects of (i) exposing more fully or perceptibly firms' payoff uncertainty, thereby increasing new investors' expected utility, and (ii) improving market estimates of firms' payoff parameters (means, variances, covariances), thereby giving investors a better chance of realizing their expectations. Paradoxically, better information can be valuable to new investors by exposing more fully and more accurately the risk in firms' business operations and results–new investors maximizing expected utility want both more risk and better information.     

Are investors always compensated for information risk? Evidence from Chinese reverse-merger firms

Using a data sample of 93 Chinese reverse-merger (CRM) firms listed in the U.S. over the period from 2000 to 2011, we find supporting evidence of poorer financial reporting quality exhibited by CRM firms relative to their respective US counterparts. Our main result indicates that while poor financial reporting quality induces information risk/asymmetry, higher (lower) information risk fails to be associated with higher (lower) expected returns. In contrast with prior studies that document information risk as non-diversifiable and a priced risk factor, the value relevance of the CRM firms’ financial reporting quality, in terms of information asymmetry-based premiums, is found to be remote.

     

Literature review and challenging research agenda on politicians’ use of accounting information

Recent research on politicians’ use of financial and performance information is reviewed. Survey-based studies overestimate the frequency of this use; observational studies present a more accurate picture. A new and challenging research agenda is presented that will improve our understanding of the use and usefulness of accounting information. Implications for the real world of practice are discussed.     

Does cross-border syndication affect venture capital risk and return?

Venture capital (VC) cross-border syndication has increased significantly in recent years. This study examines the risk and returns of investments of US–European cross-border syndicates in US portfolio companies. We use a large sample of investments across four financing stages, and highlight several noteworthy differences between cross-border syndicates and previous US-only evidence. By comparison, US–European syndicates are larger than US-only syndicates, involve younger VCs, and focus more on later financing stages. Controlling for sample selection bias caused by the endogenous choices of exit route and exit timing, we examine the risk and returns of investments backed by cross-border syndicates. Consistent with evidence from US-only syndicates, alpha and beta decrease monotonically from the earliest (start-up) stage to the later stages of financing.     

Discussion of “inventory policy, accruals quality and information risk”

Krishnan et al. (Review of Accouting Studies, 2008) investigate how the choice of LIFO versus FIFO affects firms’ accruals quality and cost of capital. The authors show that LIFO firms have better accruals quality and lower cost of capital than FIFO firms and that the cost of capital effect associated with the inventory valuation method is not subsumed by differences either in fundamental risk or accruals quality between LIFO and FIFO firms. This discussion is focused on key design choices and underlying assumptions.     

Venture capitalists and portfolio companies’ real activities manipulation

I study the relation between venture capitalists’ (VCs) presence and real activities manipulation (RM). I find that compared to non-venture-backed companies, venture-backed companies show significantly less RM in the first post-IPO fiscal year. The results are robust after controlling for the VC selection endogeneity. This is consistent with the argument that VCs do not inflate earnings when they exit the IPO firm but instead exercise a monitoring role to reduce the RM by other insiders. By the end of the second post-IPO fiscal year when VCs exit the portfolio companies, their impact on portfolio companies’ RM decreases dramatically. This suggests that the impact of VCs on portfolio companies is mainly through direct monitoring rather than through the establishment of a governance structure. A partitioned sample analysis indicates that VCs lapse their control and do not restrain RM during the Internet Bubble. VCs also tighten their control and reduce significantly RM in technology companies where managers engage in more aggressive RM, but they have no influence on RM in non-tech companies. Furthermore, using alternative VCs’ reputation proxies, I find that portfolio companies’ RM is negatively associated with VCs’ reputation.     

Financial estimates against investors’ preferences: anchoring,denial and spillover effects

This experimental study investigates how the characteristics of an estimate in a sensitivity disclosure and the level of threat it presents to investors’ preferences interact to influence investors’ risk judgments. Firstly, I predict and find that variation in an estimate affects not only investors’ judgment on a related issue but also their future judgments on an unrelated issue. Secondly, I predict and find that investors are more sensitive to variations in an estimate when information contained in the estimate presents less threat to their preferred conclusions than when it presents greater threat. Finally, I predict and find that investors perceive more uncertainty regarding the association between the disclosed risk factor and the estimated financial reporting item in the estimate when the information presents greater threat.