On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967–2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.     

How best to link poverty reduction and debt sustainability in IMF–World Bank models?

This paper attempts to provide an economic model in the context of developing countries to address the policy strategies related to poverty reduction. With a view to deal with the shortcomings of the existing approaches as regards poverty reduction, this paper develops a model on the basis of the policy framework of the IMF and the World Bank to show how demand growth can be a crucial mechanism in determining the potential rate of growth, and then to suggest ways in which poverty—conceptualised officially in absolute terms with a subjective cut‐off point (e.g. US $1/$2 a day), and a new objective measure in terms of consumption deprivation—can be linked with the key policy variables contained in the adjustment programmes. A strategy of investment in infrastructure and in human development, and improving access to credit markets, particularly in rural areas to encourage or ‘crowd in’ private investment is a precondition for growth and poverty alleviation. Debt relief can only provide a temporary, not a sustainable, solution to the problem of reducing poverty.     

Economic growth,the nature of growth and poverty reduction in rural China

This paper examines some of the major driving forces of poverty reduction in China. Based on time series and cross-sectional provincial data, the determinants of rural poverty incidence are estimated. The results show that economic growth is an essential and necessary condition for nationwide poverty reduction. It is not, however, a sufficient condition. While economic growth played a dominant role in reducing poverty through the mid-1990s, its impact has diminished since that time. Beyond general economic growth, growth in specific sectors of the economy is also found to be effective in reducing poverty. The finding of our paper is consistent with the idea that poverty reduction in the future will need to be adjusted with more emphasis being given on direct targeting through helping the poor to increase their human capital and incomes.     

Access to Preferential Loans for Poverty Reduction and Rural Development: Evidence from Vietnam

Preferential loans play an important role in the process of reducing poverty in developing countries. Considering the data set from the 2010 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, we aim to examine the influential factors in probability of households getting access to preferential loans. Additionally, we analyze the determinants of household income in association with the loans by applying a quantile regression model. Our results show that ethnicity-related factors have the largest marginal effect on the access to preferential loans. The results from the quantile regression model demonstrate that the debt factor has a deeper impact on the borrowing group at the lower quantiles of household income.     

内生经济增长理论与反贫困——基于“丝路明珠”和田地区的贫困问题研究

本文运用内生经济增长理论,探讨政府有关人力资本和基础设施的投资对贫困人口发生率的影响程度.利用1995～2004年之间和田地区各县的面板数据,建立多元线性回归模型,评价不同类型政府投入的效果.分析表明,政府提高人力资本的投资,如在公共医疗、信息化、教育和基础设施建设方面的投入对推动地区经济增长,打破贫困与环境之间的恶性循环,减少贫困人口数量效果显著.     

Poverty and biodiversity: Measuring the overlap of human poverty and the biodiversity hotspots

In an effort to prioritize conservation efforts, scientists have developed the concept of biodiversity hotspots. Since most hotspots occur in countries where poverty is widespread, the success of conservation efforts depends upon the recognition that poverty can be a significant constraint on conservation, and at the same time conservation is an important component to the alleviation of long-term poverty. In this paper we present five key socio-economic poverty indicators (access to water, undernourishment, potential population pressure, number living below poverty line and debt service) and integrate them with an ecologically based hotspots analysis in order to illustrate magnitude of the overlap between biological conservation and poverty. The analysis here suggests that the overlap between severe, multifaceted poverty and key areas of global biodiversity is great and needs to be acknowledged. Understanding the magnitude of overlap and interactions among poverty, conservation and macroeconomic processes is crucial for identifying illusive, yet possible, win-win solutions.     

The approach to transforming the traditional agricultural economy: a research on the multiple paths of poverty alleviation and transformation in rural China

Transforming a traditional agricultural economy into a modern economy is one of the main themes in economic development. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finds out that the key to transformation is to raise the economic value of people, to improve human capital investment and to match the stocks of physical and human capital. China’s rural economy is on the edge of economic take-off, and different zones may pursue different paths for transformation. The source of rural poverty is not the scarcity of income or consumption, but the deficiency of education, social security, medical care and economic opportunity, which we define as “capability poverty”. __________ Translated from The Journal of World Economy (世界经济), 2005,(2) (in Chinese)     

A comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and unnormalized fashion, in order to take into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study database.     

Information and IRA participation: the influence of tax preparers

The steep drop-off in the number of Individual Retirement Account (IRA) contributors after 1986 has led to suggestions that taxpayers misunderstood and over-reacted to the restrictions on deductible contributions imposed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Tax panel data is used to investigate the role of taxpayer misunderstanding in the drop-off in IRA contributors after 1986. The hiring of a tax preparer is the transmission mechanism for knowledge of the deductibility rules after 1986. The results suggest that more information and promotion of IRAs would have increased the probability of contributing to an IRA in 1987 for high income taxpayers, but would have decreased this probability for middle-income taxpayers. Taxpayer confusion over the deductibility restrictions appears to have been resolved by 1988. Therefore, taxpayer misunderstanding did not play a major role in the steep drop-off in the number of IRA contributors after 1986.     

A Gendered Model of the Peasant Household: Time poverty and Farm Production in Rural Mozambique

Using insights from a case study on the allocation of labor in subsistence households in Mozambique, this study develops a conceptual framework for examining linkages between time poverty and farm production. An unexpected event such as a health crisis increases the demand for labor provided by women, thus making them more time poor. The model and numerical simulations show that a deterioration in a woman's time constraint will have an adverse effect on agricultural output of the household. This occurs because most women respond to an increase in household work by reducing their work hours on the farm and by reducing their leisure time. The latter outcome is expected to have a negative effect on women's physical and mental health, which will then cause a decline in their productivity on the farm.     

人口迁移承接与珠三角城市经济社会结构演变的耦合

通过梳理珠三角外来迁移人口的特征,发现长期以来,珠三角都是我国承接迁移人口最多的区域,并且增长速度快,就业结构高级化,空间分布比较集中.通过Granger检验发现,外来迁移人口与经济发展水平和产业结构先进性之间存在单向的Granger因果关系;通过耦合协调模型实证研究发现,外来迁移人口数量与珠三角多数城市经济结构之间存在很高的耦合协调关系,与少数城市城市化水平之间存在较高的耦合协调关系,与多数城市的社会结构之间耦合协调关系较弱.     

不同污染类型工业行业的环境污染分解分析——基于1998～2005年间中国工业行业数据分析

在利用数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算1998～2005年中国污染密集型和中、低污染型行业的全要素生产率的基础上,实证分析了各种因素对不同污染类型工业行业的污染排放的影响。结果表明:经济规模的扩大增加了污染排放,恶化了中国环境;工业内部的产业结构变化对污染密集型行业和中、低污染行业的污染排放均有显著的影响;全要素生产率的提高对控制污染密集型工业行业的污染排放有显著的作用;污染密集型行业出口商品结构变化对其行业污染排放有显著影响,进口商品结构变化对各污染类型工业行业污染排放均没有显著影响。     

破解城乡差距之困:基于劳动力流转模型的实证分析

农村劳动力转移无疑可以缩小中国的城乡差距。然而,在现实的劳动力流动过程中却存在诸多包括现行土地制度在内的障碍。文章在拓展Todaro模型的基础上,基于CFPS(中国家庭动态跟踪调查)数据实证分析了土地制度对农村劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明,我国现行的土地制度限制了农地需求,从而抑制了农地流转市场的发育。这不仅导致农民在市民化过程中无法将农地的未来收益充分变现,还增加了农民市民化的机会成本,并进一步阻碍了城市化进程和城乡差距问题的解决。因而,完善土地流转制度,给予农民"市民化补贴"以推进农村劳动力转移,从而加速城市化进程,是破解城乡差距之困的根本途径。     

碳排放与出口贸易和经济增长之间的关系研究——对山东省1984～2008年数据的计量分析

根据对数均值迪氏分解法计算出了山东省1984～2008年的碳排放量,然后实证分析了经济增长、出口贸易与碳排放之间的动态关系。结论显示:3个变量之间存在长期协整关系;出口贸易是山东省碳排放和经济增长的格兰杰因,而经济增长不是碳排放的原因。出口带动经济增长假说在山东省成立,山东省也是碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,但山东省的经济增长和环境关系符合环境库兹涅茨曲线高收入阶段的情况,环境质量随着收入的增加而得到改善。山东省可通过发展减排和贸易减排的方式实现经济的可持续发展和环境友好型社会的建设。     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.     

The contribution of institutions, trade, and geography to the development process: How robust is the empirical evidence to variations in the sample?

This paper uses an influence spectrum to identify influential subsets in a stylized cross-country data set and finds that institutions, geography, and trade (policy), all appear to play a significant role in the development process for a relatively large sub-sample of countries. For example, equatorial distance, a proxy for geography, becomes positive and significant (originally negative and insignificant) after removing only eight countries or observations from the original sample of sixty-three, while controlling for institutions and trade. In fact, for this set of fifty-five countries all three variables have the correct sign and are statistically significant. As another example, the trade variable becomes positive and significant (originally insignificant) after removing only two countries from the original sample.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

经济分权、人口迁徙与大国发展之路——基于人均产出增长地区差异的实证分析

文章从分权式改革的视角分析了中国改革开放30年来的经济发展道路,总结了中国经济高速增长的主要成功经验在于政治集权下的经济分权。但是经济分权并不能有效缩小城乡、地区与贫富差距,其原因在于中国人口不能自由迁徙,对落后地区的地方政府不能实现“用脚投票”效应,从而影响了对地方政府的监督与激励作用。文章指出只有在人口自由迁徙的条件下,政治集权下的经济分权才能有效激励地方政府,特别是落后地区地方政府发展地方经济的积极性。在认清分权式改革与人口迁徙关系的基础上,正确设计下一步的改革方略,有利于中国真正走出一条大国发展之路。