The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) stands as a symbol of international cross-cultural exchange through elite-level sport. As a mega-event with a significant reliance on a specific range of weather conditions for outdoor competitions, the OWG have developed several technologies and strategies to manage weather risk. Can these climatic adaptations cope with future climate change? Based on an analysis of two key climate indicators (probability of a minimum temperature of ≤0°C, and probability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity), this paper examines how projected changes to climate will impact the ability of the 19 previous host cities/regions to provide suitable conditions for outdoor competitions in the future. The results indicate that while the 19 former OWG hosts all have a suitable climate in the 1981–2010 period, only 11 or 10 (low–high-emission scenarios) remain climatically suitable in the 2050s, with as few as 6 in the high-emission scenario of the 2080s. The analysis reveals that climate change has important implications for the future geography of OWG host cities/regions as well as broader implications for participation in winter sport.     

Weather risk management at the Olympic Winter Games

The globally celebrated Olympic Winter Games (OWG) are highly dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. To determine the range of weather impacts on the Games, this study examines the official Olympic post-Games reports from 1924 to 2010. Impacts include preparations for the Games, holding outdoor opening–closing ceremonies, outdoor sporting competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and television broadcasts. The study also examines the range of historical adaptations that have developed to manage weather risks at the OWG. Three adaptation eras are identified, spanning the history of the games: emergent adaptation, technological transition, and advanced adaptation. Analysis reveals that while weather-induced impacts have always been a part of the Games, these impacts would be far greater if not for technical climatic adaptations. With the average daytime temperature of host locations steadily increasing from 0.4°C at the Games held in the 1920–1950s to 7.8°C at the Games held in the twenty-first century, it would be difficult to imagine recent host cities/regions successfully delivering the diverse Games programme exclusively on natural ice and snow. The connection between the evolving needs for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organisers and the growth of the Olympics in size and scope is also discussed.     

Adapting to climate change: perceptions of vulnerability of down-hill ski area operators in Southern and Middle Finland

Climate change is likely to affect the tourism sector, particularly areas, such as snow-based tourism, that are directly dependent on climate and weather conditions. Especially vulnerable are low-lying ski areas. This study identifies the climatic factors that are crucial for economically successful operation of low-lying ski areas in Southern and Middle Finland and contemplates how these factors are seen to change with climate change. The study then analyses the preferences for and perceptions of adaptation strategies of downhill ski operators in terms of the adaptation measures they can implement or are willing to take. The findings indicate that climatic conditions set preconditions for the operation of the ski areas, but short-term operational prospects and inter-annual variability in weather conditions rather than foreseen changes in climatic conditions guide the operational decisions of the ski area operators. A key adaptation strategy to respond to uncertain snow conditions is artificial snowmaking, which lowers the vulnerability of the areas to the impacts of climate change too.     

The restructuring of winter sports resorts in the French Alps: problems,processes and policies

In the French Alps the last decade has been dominated by efforts to regenerate winter sports resorts. This follows an extended period of rapid growth, resulting in the demographic and economic revival of many alpine communities. However, flaws in the process of development were exposed in the late 1980s. Given the huge scale of investment in tourist facilities and the numerous livelihoods dependent on winter sports, restructuring became vital. The present paper analyses the causes of recent problems and evaluates related remedial policies, showing how implementing change can be complicated by the numerous actors involved and their frequently divergent strategies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The politics of flying: aeromobile frictions in a mobile city

This article joins recent calls for greater attention to be paid to the politics of mobility. In particular, it examines how air transport is not only experienced inequitably among different social groups, but is also an activity whose access and opportunities are geographically distributed in uneven ways. Using Singapore as a candidate and foil to reflect on this issue, this paper interrogates how three ‘international’ legislative frameworks—air traffic rights, air navigation rules, and climate change initiatives—have variously limited the city-state’s potential to ‘move’ at different stages of its flying career. Despite the city-state’s widely-acclaimed aviation success, this paper demonstrates how it remains subject to the geopolitical actions of more dominant players, residing interstitially between being at the vanguard, and at the peripheries of global air traffic. It is suggested that further interrogations on how particular transport practices and configurations become salient in the world are needed.     

Modeling fuel saving investments and fleet management in the trucking industry: The impact of shipment performance on GHG emissions

Much has been written about the potential of technologies to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of trucking, but much less on the determinants of these investments. The Trucking Sector Trip Segmentation Model (TSTS) predicts how firms make these investments in the context of operating heterogeneous truck fleets to service the spatially dispersed demand of shippers. This analysis suggests that improving the performance of trucking (speeding up shipments) could reduce significantly GHG emissions: investments in technologies are incentivized by fuel savings accruing sooner. This effect could be potentially large in the US as trucking firms often discount the future heavily.     

To go or stay home and watch: exploring the balance between motives and perceived constraints for major events: a case study of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

The current study offers insight into the role of motivation and constraints on behavioural intentions prior to a mega event. The Psychological Continuum Model framework was used to integrate motivation and leisure constraints theory to examine attraction towards the 2008 Olympic Games. Semi‐structured interviews (N = 47) and a questionnaire (N = 235) distributed in Australia and the USA were used to identify and measure three motivational themes: cultural learning, cultural experience and olympic event interest, and three perceived constraints: structural, interpersonal and intrapersonal. Structural Equation Modelling revealed that motives were positively related to behavioural intentions while constraints were negatively related. Analysis further revealed the interaction between motives and perceived constraints led to two different forms of behavioural intentions; intentions to travel and attend the event vs. stay home to watch the event on TV. Policy and marketing implications are discussed that illustrate the benefits of understanding both motives and perceived constraints for tourism travel. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Preparing for climate change: recognising its early impacts through the perceptions of dive tourists and dive operators in the Egyptian Red Sea

Climate change has the potential to permanently alter the attraction of many destinations and substantially impact the benefits derived from tourism. These impacts can be reduced if vulnerability to climate change is understood and operators take steps to adapt. Some of the more immediate and manageable impacts are likely to result from changes in tourist perceptions and attitudes towards climate change. We test for early impacts in the Red Sea region and for the awareness of tourism operators. We interviewed 150 tourists and 35 operators. Our data suggest that changes in tourist awareness are already apparent; yet, operators ascribe only a moderate level of environmental and climate awareness to them. This ‘perception gap’ increases the vulnerability of dive operators.     

The differential futures of ski tourism in Ontario (Canada) under climate change: the limits of snowmaking adaptation

The international ski tourism industry is highly vulnerable to inter-annual climate variability and climate change. Accordingly, there is a strong need to advance our understanding of climate risk for this multi-billion tourism market that is so important to mountain regions around the world. This study addressed major limitations in the ski tourism literature, while concurrently supporting priority information needs of ski tourism stakeholders. An improved version of SkiSim 2.0 is applied to all 34 alpine ski areas in southern Ontario (Canada) to examine potential changes in the capacity of this regional marketplace. Model improvements include differential snowmaking capacities of individual ski areas, updated snowmaking decision rules, as well as a new indicator, termed ‘terrain-days’, to estimate changes in system capacity. The results project two fundamentally different futures for this ski tourism marketplace under climate change. If the international community succeeds in achieving the?+?2°C Paris Agreement policy goal, then losses in system capacity can be limited to less than 10% in the mid- and late-century. In contrast, a high-end emission scenario (RCP 8.5) would severely disrupt this ski tourism market by mid-century, with system capacity losses between 28% and 73%.     

The impacts of high-speed trains on British economic geography: a study of the UK’s InterCity 125/225 and its effects

The arrival of high-speed trains (HSTs) leads to unprecedented time-space effects, potentially assisting face-to-face contacts in knowledge-generating process, yet its wider spatial-economic impacts are still open to debate. This research attempts to fill in this gap with empirical evidence by studying the inter-regional impacts of upgraded British InterCity 125/225 on British economic geography over 30 years. The six study routes of London-outbound trains serving major railways stations in 26 local authorities were selected as units of analysis, with the observation of differential effects both between HSTs and non-HSTs towns and among each group of towns, to understand time-space effects of InterCity 125/225 whose potential impacts on local economic strength and knowledge intensive development. The key findings suggest that the differential HST effects on British economic geography could be classified into three influential zones, namely 1-h, 2-h, and over-2-h towns. HST has had substantial and demonstrable effects in aiding this transition within a 2-h travel limit of London, thus helping to generate renewed economic growth, but that the effects have not been automatic or universal. Regarding future British HST policy, the implications arising from this study is that cities connected to a new HST could seize opportunities which non-HST cities will not be able to do so, but this is not a zero-sum situation. Instead, it involves a national strategy to develop a hierarchical network with HST between London and key regional hubs, well integrated at these hubs with intra-regional transport systems. This indicates a strong case for a finer-grained and deeper probing analysis at an intra-regional level of the potential for rail improvement as an agent of change in city-region development. We hope to report further on this in a subsequent paper.     

The geography of the Spanish airport system: spatial concentration and deconcentration patterns in seat capacity distribution, 2001-2008

This paper analyzes the geography of seat capacity at Spanish airports between 2001 and 2008. Concentration and deconcentration patterns for different markets have been identified. For this purpose, we use the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Concentration Ratio (CR) and the Lorenz curve. From our analysis, we conclude that seat capacity follows a deconcentration pattern due to the growth of low-cost carriers at small- and medium-sized Spanish airports. This is in line with earlier studies for Europe as a whole. Intercontinental seat capacity still remains very much concentrated in Madrid and, to a lesser extent, in Barcelona. However, new strategies by long-haul airlines bypassing the primary European hubs foster the deconcentration of seat capacity in the Asian and North American markets. In the case of Spain, the recent liberalization of the EU-US market may become an important enabler of such network strategies, e.g., Delta has operated a route from Valencia to New York-JFK since 2009. In other intercontinental markets, capacity is more and more concentrated in Madrid. We highlight the restructuring of Iberia’s network as an important factor behind the increasing dominance of Madrid in intercontinental markets.     

Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market

Despite the explosive growth of the Chinese aviation sector and the major industry reforms undertaken in recent decades, the Chinese domestic market remains highly concentrated with a significant element of regulation and governmental control in areas such as market entry and airline fleet planning. In this study, we investigate the frequency strategies and aircraft choices of airlines operating in this concentrated growth market. Our empirical investigation suggests that airlines mainly accommodate rapid traffic growth by flying more frequently, although increased aircraft size also contributes to market expansion. We also find a negative relationship between market concentration and flight frequency. Due to the more balanced market structure resulting from mergers among leading airlines since 2002, there has been a moderate reduction in market concentration at route level, contributing to a 3.7% increase in traffic volume from 2002 to 2008. The results of our study suggest that Chinese travelers have yet to fully enjoy the benefits of market liberalization, and airports should prioritize increasing capacity related to aircraft movements over the accommodation of larger aircraft.     

The potential of management networks in the innovation and competitiveness of rural tourism: a case study on the Valle del Jerte (Spain)

Since the 1980s, rural tourism has witnessed a significant and generalised growth among the European Union members. However, from the perspective of business management, rural tourism suffers from several obstacles that complicates its competitiveness as a tourism product. By focusing on the Valle del Jerte (Extremadura, Spain) case study, this study analyses a rural tourism business network, from the social network analysis perspective, to critically discuss its potential as a structure that enhances competitiveness and innovation. The results demonstrate that these networking structures contribute towards the creation of a cohesive destination, whereby the sharing of resources enables innovative local responses to the global market challenges.     

On academic publishing,the myth of the East–West nexus,and tourism scholars in a regime era – a commentary on “The global permutations of the Western publication regime” by Erik Cohen,Scott A. Cohen,and Victor T. King

The article, “The global permutations of the Western publication regime” (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1272556), inspires this short commentary. I respond directly to two points made in the original article about academic publishing and divisions between the “East” and “West” and make an additional point about the role of tourism scholars in these debates. My reason for writing this commentary is twofold: to take seriously the publishing regime’s influence in academia around the world and to challenge a universalizing critique of its features.