HOW FAST DO TOKYO AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGES RESPOND TO EACH OTHER? AN ANALYSIS WITH HIGH‐FREQUENCY DATA

This paper uses one‐min returns on the TOPIX and S&P500 to examine the efficiency of the Tokyo and New York Stock Exchanges. Our major finding is that Tokyo completes reactions to New York within six min, but New York reacts within fourteen min. Dividing the sample period into three subperiods, we found that the response time has shortened and the magnitude of reaction has become larger over the period in both markets. The magnitude of response in New York to a fall in Tokyo is roughly double that of a rise.     

Learning from Role Models in Rwanda: Incoherent Emulation in the Construction of a Neoliberal Developmental State

In the twenty-first century, developing country policymakers are offered different market-led role models and varied interpretations of ‘developmental state role models’. Despite this confusion, African countries pursue emulative strategies for different purposes – whether they may be for economic transformation (in line with developmental state strategies), market-led reforms or simply to signal the implementation of ‘best practices’ to please donors. Rwanda has been lauded for the country’s economic recovery since the 1994 genocide, with international financial institutions and heterodox scholars both praising different facets of its development strategy. This paper argues that Rwanda is an example of a country that has simultaneously pursued emulative strategies for different purposes – often even within the same sector. Two studies of emulation are explored: the emulation of Singapore’s Economic Development Board through the establishment of Rwanda’s own Rwanda Development Board (RDB) and the evolution of Rwanda’s financial sector with reference to the use of contending market-led and developmental state models. The paper argues that in Rwanda, incoherent emulation for different purposes has resulted in contradictory tensions within its development strategy and the construction of a neoliberal developmental state.     

Re-examining the “twin deficits” hypothesis: evidence from Australia

This paper re-examines the relationship between fiscal imbalances and net foreign borrowing. A general analytical approach is first developed which suggests that, other things equal, a rise (fall) in any advanced economy’s fiscal deficit should be fully matched by a rise (fall) in its net foreign borrowing, in accordance with the so-called twin deficits hypothesis. In the case of Australia, one of the world’s largest foreign borrower economies for its size, empirical estimation yields the novel result that Australia’s consolidated budget imbalance and its foreign borrowing were approximately twinned on the basis of quarterly data for 1983–2009, when Australia’s exchange rate floated and international capital mobility was high. This result is consistent with the conceptual framework and suggests that fiscal policy is likely to be ineffective as an instrument for influencing the real economy.     

China’s economic reforms and growth prospects

Conventional wisdom attributes China’s rapid economic growth to its model of state capitalism, which combines direct state ownership of the commanding heights of the economy and indirect state control of the rest of the economy through industrial policies and the allocation of credit through state-owned banks. This article argues that China’s growth since 1978 is largely due to the result of the expanding role of markets and the rise of private business. If China systematically adopts the economic reform agenda endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party in the fall of 2013, it likely will avoid a sustained period of much slower growth that some have forecast.     

限购背景下存准率与房价的关系研究

2010年以来,我国主要的大中城市纷纷出台了商品房的限购政策,同期法定存款准备金率也多次调整.在限购政策背景下,本文运用广义矩(GMM)方法,将限购政策作为逻辑变量加入到估计模型中,对限购背景下的存款准备金率调整与商品房价格的关系进行了定量分析.结果表明,限购政策对于抑制房价过快上涨具有显著意义,同时,政府上调存款准备金率在滞后2期和3期时对于抑制商品房价格过快上涨也具有一定的积极作用,但商品房价格不会因存款准备金率的上调而出现急速下跌,而是在存款准备金率持续上调的过程中呈现出先上涨后下跌,再上涨、再下跌的交替变化特征.研究同时发现,限购政策和存款准备金率调整对于我国东部地区城市影响显著,而对于中西部城市影响则不显著.基于此,本文提出了运用存款准备金率手段在抑制商品房价格过快上涨过程中的对策建议.     

‘Socialization of Investment’ and ‘Euthanasia of the Rentier’: the Relevance of Keynesian policy ideas for the contemporary US Economy

This paper builds from two explicit policy ideas that Keynes introduced in the General Theory, a ‘somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment’, and ‘the euthanasia of the rentier’. The paper argues that, to a significant degree, the stagnation of the contemporary US economy can be attributed to the nature of its capital-market based, or ‘exit led’ financial system, which promotes short-termism, speculation and financial fragility, as well as excessive political power for the rentier class. In combination, these factors also diminish governments' capacity to successfully implement policies that promote egalitarian growth and full employment. In making these points, I contrast the US financial system with the bank-based or ‘voice led’ systems, such as those in Japan, France or South Korea. The paper then sketches a series of policy proposals which would address these problems. These proposals include regulatory policies which would ‘level the playing field upward’ among all financial intermediaries, and credit allocation policies that give preference to projects with high social rates of return. The proposals also aim to substantially increase the degree of democratic accountability within the financial system.     

Implication for cities of the liberalizing national economies in twenty-first century

For cities, the liberalization of national economies and the creation of a global economy have profound and far-reaching implications: global capitalist restructuring has been a key force in reshaping cities during the late1980s, 1990s and 2000s; it has demanded the production and use of new information technologies and in doing so, has forged new relationships among new technologies and new spatial forms and processes in cities. Technological innovation and territorial restructuring have also deeply modified cities’ emerging socio-economic systems. At the centre of change are the three major global cities – New York, Tokyo and London (Sassen, 1993). Other cities that have been affected by the liberalization and creation of a global economy are found mainly in newly industrializing Asian countries such as Seoul, Singapore and Hong Kong. Bombay, Mexico City and cities in South America are among countries in the developing world that have experienced some change in their economies in response to changing world conditions, but are still constrained by protectionist policies. Among these changes, therefore, this study will focus on structural change occurring in cities in the developed countries, particularly New York, London and Tokyo.     

The role of institutions and immigrant networks in firms’ offshoring decisions

The offshoring of production by firms has expanded dramatically in recent decades, increasing their potential for economic growth. What determines the location of offshore production? How do countries’ policies and characteristics affect a firm's decision about where to offshore? Do firms choose specific countries because of the countries’ policies or because they know them better? In this paper, we use a rich dataset on Danish firms to analyze how decisions to offshore production depend on the institutional characteristics of the country and firm-specific bilateral networks. We find that institutions that reduce credit risk and corruption increase the probability that firms will offshore there, while those that increase regulation in the labour market decrease this probability. We also show that a firm's probability of offshoring increases with the share of its employees who are immigrants from that country of origin. Finally, our analysis reveals that the negative impact of institutions that hinder offshoring is attenuated by a strong bilateral network of foreign workers.     

Globalization and the Return to Education in Australia

Reich argues that globalization will increase the relative earnings of those whose occupation involves identifying and solving problems and managing ideas. Hence, the return to education, especially education in the form of a university degree, will rise. This paper examines the return to education in Australia in the 1980s and shows that in the private sector there has been a substantial rise in the relative earnings of graduates. Due to special circumstances there has been a fall in the public sector. Previous findings of little change are the result of aggregation problems.     

Social Capital Accumulation and the Exercise of Power: The Case of P2 in Italy

This article addresses the production of legitimate forms of power in our democracies by framing the rise and fall of “Propaganda 2” (P2) — a masonic lodge active in Italy during the 1970s — in the analysis of social capital proposed by Pierre Bourdieu. This lens emphasizes the role played by networks in the accumulation of symbolic capital and their interaction with the historical and institutional context in the exercise of symbolic violence. The experience of P2 is then analyzed to describe, on one hand, the characteristics of the networks that are critical to its success and, on the other, the lodge’s capacity to interfere with the economic and political systems within the context of the Cold War in Italy. The willingness to control and provoke institutional change expressed by P2’s affiliates also shows to what extent the accumulation of social capital, in combination with other forms of capital, may represent a threat to public welfare. By illustrating the interaction between networks and the normative framework underlying our institutions, this case study suggests that the experience of P2 is not an exception in the functioning of our democracies.     

An Analysis of the Market for Taxicab Rides in New York City*

In the last few years, the city of New York has increased taxicab fares and relaxed a 59‐year‐old cap on the number of licenses. This article uses a dynamic equilibrium model of meeting frictions to quantify the impact of these policies on medallion prices and on the process that rules the meetings between passengers and taxicabs in New York City.     

我国新型研发机构治理与成果转化模式特点分析及建议

近年来随着我国科技体制改革的不断推进和丰富,将产学研有效结合的新型研发机构在多个省市快速发展。为进一步了解目前我国新型研发机构的发展现状,明确其组织属性和特点,梳理我国新型研发机构的主流治理结构,本文对我国目前的新型研发机构的组建模式、治理模式和成果转化模式进行重点研究。在协同创新模式上,结合宏观的政策环境以及具体的市场环境,把握当前新型研发机构的建设现状,对此展开较为深入系统的研究。     

What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?

This paper challenges the institutional sclerosis view of the German crisis according to which rigid labour markets and generous welfare state institutions have driven Germany into its position as ‘Europe's sick man’. In general, the view is not convincing, because the underlying hypotheses about the effects of labour market regulation and welfare state institutions on employment and growth cannot unambiguously be derived from modern labour market theory and are at least partially at odds with accepted empirical findings. In particular, the explanation is unconvincing, because in international comparison Germany's labour market and welfare state institutions are simply not as sclerotic as often supposed. In most of the aggregate indicators for structural rigidities Germany is not worse than the average OECD or EU country. Moreover, there is a macroeconomic explanation focusing on the combined effects of restrictive and pro‐cyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies in Germany that is broadly consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and is supported by empirical data.     

New empirical evidence of the linkages between governance and economic output in the European Union

This paper uses data for the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) from 2000 to 2010 to support the thesis that a positive and significant correlation exists between a nation’s quality of governance and its economic output. To achieve this goal, the elements of governance that have been reported by the Worldwide Governance Indicators project are considered. Four individual indicators for the quality of policies and institutions and a global indicator of governance quality are constructed. We estimate that, for our database, a standard deviation shock in these indicators causes changes between 0.03-fold and 0.05-fold in income per capita.     

Land use rights,market transitions,and labour policy change in China (1980–84)

This paper provides a systematic analysis of the way shifts in property utilization rights in China induced another sequence of institutional changes that led to the rise of rural–urban labour migration from 1980 to 1984, a critical period in the country’s market transition. The paper shows that the 1980s’ Household Responsibility System (HRS), which brought family farming back from the communal system, endowed rural households not only with land use rights, but also with de facto labour allocation rights. These shifts in property relations promoted a growth in agricultural market size as well as the emergence of intraprovincial non‐hukou rural–urban migration, which may have made labour retention policies such as the small township strategy ineffective, and may have given the government an incentive to deregulate its subsequent labour market policy.     

广义转型视角下的制度移植——日本明治维新与俄罗斯休克疗法的比较研究

从广义上来说,转型是从一个社会成熟状态向另一个社会成熟状态的转变。通过移植先进国家的制度来推动制度变迁是实现转型的一种重要方式。在历史上,制度移植既有成功的经验,也有失败的教训。通过对日本明治维新和俄罗斯休克疗法的比较,文章认为,成功的制度移植需要注重对慢动制度的诱导。而教育、示范、学习乃至奖惩等方式在诱导慢动制度变革方面可以发挥重要的作用,从而为制度移植的成功提供保障。在此基础上,文章进一步分析了俄罗斯转型的发生机理和绩效。     

Supra-National Money and the Euro Crisis: Lessons from Karl Polanyi

The paper seeks to examine some of the key features of Karl Polanyi’s ideas explaining the collapse of the pre-Great Depression unregulated market system by using his broad framework of analysis, as developed in The Great Transformation and published over 70 years ago, to explain the present Eurozone crisis. Emphasis is placed on the two key institutions of the pre-Depression era, namely haute finance and the gold standard, as well as his heterodox views on the nature and origin of money to shed light on the evolving crisis within the Eurozone. On the basis of Polanyi’s insights, the paper concludes that the cause of the latter crisis is similar and it lies primarily in the adoption of stateless or supra-national money that is even more restrictive on the behaviour of national authorities than the conditions imposed under the gold standard. The current situation of quasi-permanent austerity in the Eurozone is the inevitable consequence of its monetary architecture, and it will remain a long-term feature of Europe, unless significant institutional changes are put in place to bridge the gap between money and the state.     

农产品价格与农民收入增长关系的动态分析

实证分析表明,在1978～2010年的样本区间内,农产品生产价格上涨对我国农民收入水平的提高没有显著作用。因此,在出台提高农产品价格的政策选择上,应持谨慎的态度。农业生产资料价格上涨对农民收入增长具有较微弱的负向影响。切实控制农业生产资料价格的非理性上涨,应是政府的长期政策取向。而加大政府对农业的支持力度,建立和完善符合国际惯例和中国国情的农业综合补贴支持体系,推进农业产业化以加快农村劳动力的转移,不失为解决农民增收困难问题的重要途径。     

Fuels on the Hill

New York Times,June 27,2008 Congress has always had a soft spot for'experts'who tell members what they want to hear,whether it’s supply-side economists declaring that tax cuts increase revenue or climate-change skeptics insisting that global warming is a myth.     

纽约州支持电动汽车发展的政策举措及其启示

纽约州将电动汽车产业发展作为打造创新经济的先行产业,自2011年以来,推出了一系列系统性的政策举措,包括加强与加快可再生能源特别是太阳能的发展,资助先进储能技术,支持建设纳米级锂硫电池材料制造中心,启动"充电纽约"、"卡车券计划"和纽约绿色银行计划等,使纽约州的电动汽车产业发展和推广在美国处于领先水平。总结纽约州支持发展电动汽车的经验,得出4点启示:一是顶层设计,系统筹划,善于利用与开发本地优势;二是政府组织设立示范项目,引导企业参与投入;三是普适与专项激励政策并举;四是发展目标法律化与阶段化相结合。