略论资产证券化与美国次级贷款危机

次贷危机的爆发与资产证券化市场的发展息息相关。一方面,资产证券化作为金融创新的重要方式,推动了美国经济的增长;但另一方面,资产证券化在开放的金融体系中会加速风险和危机的传播和扩散,加大系统性风险和金融危机的传染效应,使局部性金融危机或个案性金融危机演变成全球性金融危机。因此,加强金融创新中的风险控制是美国次贷危机给我们的重要启示。     

Extreme daily changes in U.S. Dollar London inter-bank offer rates

The likelihood of extreme daily changes in London Interbank Offer rates are estimated using the peaks-over-threshold method developed from extreme value theory. Value at risk and expected shortfall for high quantiles are produced for the left and right tails of the distributions for each maturity. The Generalized Pareto distribution of the peaks-over-threshold method is found to be unsuitable for modeling exceedances above a high threshold for samples of simple daily changes in the LIBOR. When the series are transformed to logarithmic daily changes, extreme value analysis proceeds smoothly and yields useful information about the relative frequency or magnitudes of extreme events. The main consequence of this is that the risk statistics associated with a given change in the LIBOR depend on the initial rate level; at higher (lower) interest rates, changes of a given size are more (less) likely to occur.     

中美货币政策变动与国内资产价格调控

后金融危机时代,美国持续量化宽松货币政策所带来的溢出效应已对中国资产价格调整产生实质性影响;美国货币政策变动后可通过利率和国际资本流入进行传导,能直接引起中国股票市场价格的剧烈波动并间接推动房地产价格的上涨;在中国房地产市场正处于深度调控背景下,美国货币政策的进一步放宽将对中国货币政策的适度紧缩形成强烈制约,使中国资产价格调控面临巨大的风险和隐患。     

美国政府对外国参与美国研发活动的管理概况

本文主要探讨美国对外国参与美国研发活动的基本态度以及政府管理的基本情况。     

Simultaneous Releases of U.S. and Foreign GAAP Earnings

Prior studies examine the incremental information content of U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) reconciliation of U.S. listed foreign firms and find mixed results. One of the main methodological issues in prior studies is the uncertainty concerning the dates of the reconciliation releases. This study examines the information content of U.S.GAAP reconciliation for a sample of U.S. listed foreign firms that released both U.S. and foreign GAAP earnings information simultaneously. The findings show that there is no incremental information content for the U.S. GAAP reconciliation over foreign GAAP earnings. When added to other empirical evidence from prior studies, this studies' results of no incremental information content further support the recent SEC announcement to work towards eliminating the reconciliation by 2009 for firms using IFRS.     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

Determinants of land value volatility in the U.S. Corn Belt

ABSTRACT

Understanding land value volatility and its reaction to exogenous shocks helps land owners, investors, and lenders assess risk. Land value volatility, the variance of the unpredictable component of land value growth rates, is modelled for each of the Corn Belt states in the U.S. using EGARCH. A pooled VAR system is then estimated to capture the interactions between land value determinants and land value volatility. The variables of the pooled VAR are split into negative and positive vectors to allow for asymmetric impacts. Impulse response functions are mapped. All states exhibit land value volatility clustering. Inflation, cash rent and population growth rates granger cause land value volatility. Land value volatility responses to negative shocks are greater than those to positive shocks. Lenders and investors should expect greater swings in land values after negative shocks to land value growth rates, but not an overreaction of land values from shocks to cash rent growth rates. Positive shocks to changes in interest rates increases land value volatility, but unexpected shocks to population growth rates do not have statistically significant impact on land value volatility.     

Federal and Foreign Trade Deficits and the Future of the U.S. Economy

The author traces the course of the economy during the past few years, raising questions about its future course. Unless drastic (and seemingly unlikely) actions are taken, Due predicts the resumption of inflation, a depression, or both.     

The Impact of U.S. Individual and Institutional Investor Sentiment on Foreign Stock Markets

This study examines the degree to which U.S. individual and institutional investor sentiments are propagated abroad. Previous studies construe investor sentiments as fully irrational; we find contrary evidence that individual and institutional investor sentiments are driven by both rational and irrational factors, with distinct effects on domestic and international stock market returns. The generalized impulse response functions from VAR model estimations show that U.S. institutional investor sentiments have varying degrees of impact on the equity markets of the U.K., Mexico, and Brazil, and no effect on Chile. Specifically, the individual investor sentiment effect is statistically significant only for the U.K market. Not surprisingly, the two classes of investor sentiments have a strong significant effect on the U.S. stock market returns. The response of the U.S. to individual investor sentiments is relatively more erratic, while the response to institutional investor sentiments is smoother. This difference in pattern becomes more visible when we consider the response of the foreign stock markets. We find significant effects of rational sentiments of institutional investors on the U.S., the U.K., Mexico, and Brazil. However, there is an insignificant effect of the irrational sentiments on the same set of countries. A direct implication of our empirical evidence is that it is important for international asset pricing models to consider the role of rational sentiments of institutional and individual investors on developed and emerging markets.     

次贷危机背景下美国财政政策走势的预测——基于凯恩斯主义视角的一个分析

次贷危机爆发的根源一直是学术界争论的焦点.对战后六十多年来美国财政政策历史沿革的考察,美国每当遇到经济增长放缓、有步入衰退的危险时,政府都会遵循凯恩斯主义的赤字财政理论,利用财政工具扩大有效需求,同时还会在一定程度上对经济长期增长率的提高进行财政投入.次贷危机爆发是与美国政府多年来推行的赤字财政政策密不可分的.而在全球经济失调背景下,财政赤字的过度膨胀又为政府在应对危机、化解系统风险时设置了财政约束刚性的障碍.从中短期来看,为应对经济危机的威胁,防止产出出现大幅下滑.预计美国政府将采取以下财政措施:第一,冻结减税计划,防止赤字进一步扩大;第二,加大转移支付力度,帮助贫困家庭获得工作和生活必需品,防止出现大面积社会不满;第三,在国际资本市场上发行美国政府特别债券,筹集应对经济危机、扩大政府购买开支的资金;第四.加大政府购买支出力度,且这种购买主要体现在对经济结构改变有重要推动意义的项目上;最后,美国在实行以上积极财政政策的同时,还将辅以相应的汇率与货币政策.     

U.S. foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: a case of remittances and market size

This article investigates the effect of remittances on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It covers 26 countries for the period 1983–2010. The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on U.S. FDI flows. However, this effect depends upon the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the host country. On average, the results show that increasing remittances by one standard deviation increases U.S. FDI flows by 0.44 percent a year. Also, host country demand positively affects U.S. FDI flows, which supports the market size hypothesis.     

金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响及其传导

金融危机通过对进口的抑制和对出口的刺激改变了美国的对外贸易结构,这些影响首先传导到贸易收支账户.使美国的贸易收支状况得到改善;之后进一步传导到国民收入账户,减少了金融危机对美国经济增长的冲击.     

The Basic Needs Strategy,the Congressional Mandate,and U.S. Foreign Aid Policy

In line with Veblen's contributions on the "dark side" of commercial and political relationships, we show how promises can be used to manipulate the "common man." By imposing excessive access costs on potential promisees (e.g., citizens or consumers), a promiser (e.g., a politician or a firm) can benefit from making a promise without having to wholly fulfill it. These strategically manipulated access costs can be legitimized by the need to prevent abuse and fraud that exempts the promiser from being accused of cheating. Here, two case studies on promises offered to eligible households - the Food Stamp/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and rebates - are developed. Some policy implications are drawn and extensions are suggested.     

On the relationship between the New York closing spot U.S.$⧸$A exchange rate and the Reserve Bank of Australia's official rate

The paper considers: (i) the hypothesis that the Reserve Bank's official U.S.$?$A spot rate may be predicted from overnight movements in the closing New York rate, and (ii) the informational content of the official rate in explaining movements in the New York rate.     

美国政府科技计划概述

美国联邦政府科技计划始于二战时期“曼哈顿”计划,并逐渐从单纯维护国家军事安全扩展到科技、经济领域,以期保持科技竞争优势和新兴产业掌控优势。在国家层面上,美国没有类似国家中长期科技发展规划纲要。联邦政府科技计划大多数是根据美国国会立法而制定,具有高度的权威性和法律的强制性。美国各科技计划的针对性、目的性很强,是为了解决特定领域的重点科技问题,指标清晰,规定详尽。政府科技计划项目产生的知识产权归项目单位所有,不论该单位营利或非营利,政府可以有条件无偿使用。     

美国湿地保护和恢复政策综述

美国联邦政府湿地管理政策的演变大致可分为三个时期,即湿地开发期、政策转型期和“零净损失”期。这三个时期贯穿整个美国历史,在殖民和国家扩张时期,湿地转换成其他用途的激励导致了湿地的损失。直接鼓励湿地转换的激励机制于20世纪后期结束,随后直接和间接的激励逐渐被取消,保护湿地的政策才渐渐地被公众所接受。随着“零净损失”目标的采纳,保护和恢复湿地的努力也加快了速度。本文主要介绍美国湿地保护和恢复政策,如湿地其本情况、政府对湿地的管理和几点启示,仅供参考。     

美欧创新型国家评价体系分析

美国信息技术与创新基金会的创新竞争力评价指标体系由6个一级指标、16个二级指标构杨,其指标"经济绩效"和"创新能力"是影响国家竞争力的最重要因素;欧盟推出《创新联盟记分牌》,旨在发现欧盟成员国研究和创新体系的相对优劣势,帮助成员国认识自身实力,集中力量提高创新绩效;欧洲工商管理学院推出《全球创新指数》,强调创新环境、基础设施以及相关成果的测度和评价。国外创新测度对于我国开展创新型国家评价具有重要借鉴意义:创新型国家测度的关键是创新绩效测度,应以事实型数据为基础,并根据形势变化不断调整评价指标和体系。     

美国国家创新体系构成特点分析

美国作为全球头号经济强国,在技术创新与研发方面长期保持着世界领先的优势地位,形成了自己独特的创新体系。通过介绍美国国家创新体系的形成过程,分析了其特点,主要有:以企业为主体,由市场驱动;广纳全球创新人才;联邦政府发挥关键作用;引进民间资本参与;严格研发经费管理;与整体经济发展密切相关。美国国家创新体系在未来发展中,将进一步解决创新源泉和传播机制的问题,国防研发将继续发挥火车头的作用,创新能力将会继续居世界领先地位,当然,也面临诸多挑战,如,削减研发经费,研发成本越来越高,创新能力明显下降等。借鉴美国的经验,我国在创新体系建设中,应鼓励创新的减免税收优惠政策法规对所有企业一视同仁,加大对国防研发和基础研究的投入,统筹人才培养与引进政策等。     

Sex and environmental policy in the U.S. House of Representatives

Using LCV score data, we find that female legislators favor stricter environmental policies than do their male counterparts. Moreover, gender-corrected estimates suggest that voters do not push environmental policy towards the middle, but rather select the ideologically closest candidate.