Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S.

We examine the stabilization role of the exchange rate in the U.S. economy using a factor augmented vector autoregression model. We find that exchange rate shock explains a large fraction of the variation in exchange rate and transmits major disturbances to the real economy. Further, we find that demand and supply shocks explain less than a quarter of the exchange rate movement. We provide robust evidence that although the exchange rate plays some role as a shock absorber, its role as an independent source of shocks is more dominant for the U.S. economy. The foreign exchange market breeds its own shocks which are destabilizing not only to the value of the dollar but to the overall economy as well. Our results suggest that policymakers need to take foreign exchange market fluctuations into account when making macroeconomic policy decisions.     

Deposit rate ceiling deregulation and mortgage innovation

In many countries household financing of housing purchases has assumed a special role and as a consequence constraints have been imposed on financial institutions and on financing contracts. In addition, of course, direct subsidization of housing is pervasive. In a macroeconomic environment with inflation and variable interest rates, the constraints sometimes lead to problems for lenders and borrowers. In the U.S. these problems have resulted in pressures to change the nature of the lending institution, the financial intermediation structure and/or the mortgage contract. This paper considers the use of new, innovative, mortgage contract designs as a method of portfolio diversification when thrift institutions face deposit-rate ceiling deregulation. Since thrift institutions have been more constrained than commercial banks, changing the constraints on the former may lead to behavioral changes by the latter. Alternative scenarios about commercial bank deposit rate behavior are examined. It is found that contracts exist that minimize savings reallocation toward commercial banks, thus protecting, in a sense, the specialized mortgage lending institutions (thrift institutions). These contracts also have nice properties for mortgagors during inflationary periods. However, it is also found that certain new mortgage contracts may protect thrift institutions without maintaining the historical flow of capital into the housing sector.     

CREDIT,HOUSING COLLATERAL,AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN,THE U.K., AND THE U.S.

The consumption behavior of U.K., U.S., and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando‐Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral, and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S., but not Japanese, households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption‐to‐income ratio rose in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage down‐payment constraints eased and as the collateral role of housing wealth was enhanced by financial innovations, such as home equity loans. The estimated housing collateral effect is similar in the U.S. and U.K. In Japan, land prices (which proxy house prices) continue to negatively impact consumer spending. There are negative real interest rate effects on consumption in the U.K. and U.S. and positive effects in Japan. Overall, this implies important differences in the transmission of monetary and credit shocks in Japan versus the U.S., U.K., and other credit‐liberalized economies.     

解析次贷危机中美元升值之谜

针对次贷危机中的美元升值这一传统理论无法解释的现象,即美元升值之谜,分别从次贷危机的引发机制、美国政府为维护美元霸主地位的言论导向、国际资本流动、美国与其他西方国家经济实力对比四个方面作了解释,得出了一些规律性认识并以之来指导我国外贸企业。     

美国金融危机对我国出口的影响及对策——基于贸易经济角度的分析

目前,起始于美国的次贷危机正在全球范围内扩散、恶化,并呈现出一些新的特点。次贷危机通过特定的传导机制对中国出口尤其是对中国向美国的出口造成深刻的影响,并形成严峻的挑战。中国应采取适当的对外贸易政策措施来应对挑战,消除次贷危机对我国出口造成的不利影响。     

Politico-economic inequality and the comovement of government purchases

This paper explores the implications of economic and political inequality for the comovement of government purchases with macroeconomic fluctuations. We set up and compute a heterogeneous-agent neoclassical growth model, where households value government purchases which are financed by income taxes. A key feature of the model is a wealth bias in the political aggregation process. When calibrated to U.S. wealth inequality and exposed to aggregate productivity shocks, such a model is able to generate weaker positive comovement of government purchases than models with no political wealth bias. The wealth bias that matches the cross-sectional campaign contribution distribution by income is consistent with the mild positive comovement of government purchases in the aggregate data. We thus provide an empirically relevant example where economic and political heterogeneity matter for aggregate dynamics.     

The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

We study the changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to 14 OECD countries over the period 1981Q1–2010Q4. The U.S. monetary policy shock is defined as unexpected change in Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR). We use a time varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach (TVP-FAVAR) to study the EFFR shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables for U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Australia, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland and New Zealand. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative U.S. monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the U.S., Canada, Japan and Sweden while most of the other member countries benefits. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. We also detect a more depressed GDP over medium term in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, Norway and Sweden over the recent global financial crisis. Third, the size of U.S. monetary policy shocks during financial turmoil periods were unusual than normal periods and varies overtime. The financial crisis (2008–2009) is evidenced by decline in residential investment in the U.S. and propagation of this shock to Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand over the recent period. U.S. monetary policy shocks reduce share prices in most of the OECD countries; this impact is more pronounced over the turmoil period. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.     

Financial conditions and the well-being of the real estate sector—A bottom-up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross-border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well-being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom-up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.     

Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-Deutsche Mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.We are grateful to the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptabteilung Ausland for kindly providing, on a confidential base, the daily data on the official interventions of the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, the latter only to the extent that they affected the net foreign position of the Bundesbank. Also, we want to thank Theo Nijman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Opinions and errors are our own responsibility.     

美国次级房贷危机对中国房贷和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

Determinants of land value volatility in the U.S. Corn Belt

ABSTRACT

Understanding land value volatility and its reaction to exogenous shocks helps land owners, investors, and lenders assess risk. Land value volatility, the variance of the unpredictable component of land value growth rates, is modelled for each of the Corn Belt states in the U.S. using EGARCH. A pooled VAR system is then estimated to capture the interactions between land value determinants and land value volatility. The variables of the pooled VAR are split into negative and positive vectors to allow for asymmetric impacts. Impulse response functions are mapped. All states exhibit land value volatility clustering. Inflation, cash rent and population growth rates granger cause land value volatility. Land value volatility responses to negative shocks are greater than those to positive shocks. Lenders and investors should expect greater swings in land values after negative shocks to land value growth rates, but not an overreaction of land values from shocks to cash rent growth rates. Positive shocks to changes in interest rates increases land value volatility, but unexpected shocks to population growth rates do not have statistically significant impact on land value volatility.     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

金融危机反思及金融产品消费者保护

美国在金融产品消费者保护领域有着较为完备的法律体系,但该保护体系在次贷危机中仍暴露出明显问题,金融产品消费者在危机中依然遭受了很大损失。因此,强化消费者保护被确认为美国金融监管改革的一项重要内容。本文从市场失灵和行为金融学角度剖析了金融消费者保护失效的根源,对国外金融监管体系的改革进展进行了深入研究,并结合实际提出了建设我国金融消费者保护体系的具体措施。     

Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a two‐country, two‐good business cycle model in which international asset trade is limited to a single, non‐contingent bond. We identify trend and transitory shocks to U.S. productivity using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. The specification that best matches the data assigns a large role to trend shocks. The estimated model also captures key facts regarding international co‐movement.     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.     

基于风险转移模型的次贷危机传导研究

利用金融体系风险转移模型及其对风险分担和金融稳定性的影响的理论分析了美国次贷危机中的风险分担和风险传导。分析表明,银行体系的激进性贷款行为和恶意转移风险的道德风险促成了次贷危机的生成与传导;而金融市场的衍生产品创新在转移和分散风险的同时,也放大了美国次贷危机的风险。     

An analysis of accounting measures on the performance of U.S. international corporations

Accounting measures (earnings and cash flow) have been shown to affect market performance (stock price) in U.S. firms operating domestically. In general, earnings have statistically significant explanatory power of stock price movement, albeit superior to cash flow. However, U.S.-based international corporations consolidate earnings from foreign operations. Consolidation can report significant gains (losses) from foreign transactions, as well as from the translation of foreign assets and liabilities, as currency exchange rates flucturate. Researchers are divided over the impact, if any, that such gains (losses) have on stock price. Indeed, gain (loss) is not realized until foreign currency is converted into the parent firm's functional currency. Foreign operations may accumulate assets and foreign currency even while U.S. exchange rates decline. Stock analysts may consider all currencyadjusted data to be unreliable and prefer simple data such as sales. Currency-adjusted accounting measures may or may not influence market performance.     

France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France’s integration with the rest of the world has increased over time. Third, there is some tentative evidence of regional components in explaining French output fluctuations; country-specific components also contribute. The predominance of exogenous factors affecting French output, the asymmetry in the transmission of shocks, and France’s participation in a currency area argue for making French goods, services, and labor markets as flexible as possible.     

What drives the global official/policy interest rate?

We construct a GFAVAR model with newly released global data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to investigate the drivers of global official/policy interest rate. We find that 66% of movement in global official/policy interest rates is attributed to changes in global monetary aggregates (23%), oil prices (19%), global output (16%) and global prices (8%). Global official/policy interest rates respond significantly to increases in global output, inflation and oil prices. Increases in global policy interest rates are associated with reductions in global prices and global output. The response in official/policy interest rate for the emerging countries is more to global inflation, for the advanced countries (excluding the U.S.) is more to global output, and for the U.S. is to both global output and inflation.