On the predictive power of ARJI volatility forecasts for Bitcoin

Motivated by the recent literature on cryptocurrency volatility dynamics, this paper adopts the ARJI, GARCH, EGARCH, and CGARCH models to explore their capabilities to make out-of-sample volatility forecasts for Bitcoin returns over a daily horizon from 2013 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the ARJI jump model can cope with the extreme price movements of Bitcoin, showing comparatively superior in-sample goodness-of-fit, as well as out-of-sample predictive performance. However, due to the excessive volatility swings on the cryptocurrency market, the realized volatility of Bitcoin prices is only marginally explained by the GARCH genre of employed models.     

What drives the Bitcoin price? A factor augmented error correction mechanism investigation

This article aims to determine what drives the price of Bitcoin. To achieve this aim, a large set of data is analysed using VEC models augmented by factors representing unobservable economic forces. They have been obtained by means of principal component analysis. This method enables us to contribute to the existing literature on Bitcoin in two ways. First, we employ the dimension reduction technique to combine variables from several papers. Second, we estimate several unobservable economic concepts instead of utilizing proxy variables as is usually done. We find that the main factor driving the Bitcoin price is its popularity. Hence, our result not only confirms some previous findings but reinforces them by providing a better definition of popularity. Finally, we conclude that the Bitcoin price is not affected by supply and demand factors in the way that is natural for conventional currencies.     

Empirical Evidence Showing The Relationships Between Three Approaches for Pollution Control

Willingness to pay models have shown the theoretical relationships between the contingent valuation, cost of illness and the avertive behaviour approaches. In this paper, field survey data are used to compare the relationships between these three approaches and to demonstrate that contingent valuation bids exceed the sum of cost of illness and the avertive behaviour approach estimates. The estimates provide a validity check for CV bids and further support the claim that contingent valuation studies are theoretically consistent.     

资产专用性理论局限性评述——兼论通用收购费舍公司案例

作为解释企业边界问题的主流分析工具,资产专用性理论不能对当前企业实践以厦经验研究的结论提供合理解释,因此需要重新审视。本文从机会主义假设、生产、资产专用性、交易成本性质、不确定性、交易分析单位六个方面详细论述了该理论的局限性,并从不同角度对通用——费舍公司并购案例进行了重新分析和解释,试图为审视企业边界问题增加一些“着眼点”。     

基于消费者视角的电动汽车全寿命周期成本模型及分析

本文以全寿命周期成本理论为基础,从消费者角度对电动汽车全寿命周期内的成本进行了全面分析,建立了电动汽车的全寿命周期成本模型,为电动汽车的保有成本估算提供了方法依据。同时,将电动汽车与燃油汽车就成本进行了比较分析。结论表明,电动汽车的全寿命周期成本远低于燃油汽车,在同等条件下理性消费者会更倾向于选择电动汽车。     

基于成本视角的企业外包研究

用生产成本、交易成本和沉淀成本可以解释外包存在的经济理性。与新建企业自行生产与购买决策不同,在企业内部生产的情况下,外包被视为一种外部购买行为;交易成本和沉淀成本的存在会减少对外包的需求。这种分析框架比较好地解释了企业外包行为。当前,我们应大力完善市场制度、企业内部决策机制及网络治理结构等,以减少企业的沉淀成本,推进企业外包。     

基于状态空间模型的房地产价格泡沫问题研究

文章首先对房地产价格泡沫进行了理论界定,并对基础价值的特点进行了分析。随后在检验变量之间协整关系的基础上,建立了商品房供给与需求的状态空间模型,基础价值作为一种状态变量被纳入到模型中,从而对上海市房地产价格泡沫问题进行了实证研究。研究结果表明上海市房地产价格泡沫已经出现,并且近四年来平均泡沫程度达到22.5%。     

基于契约理论的产业网络形成模型:综合成本的观点

产业网络是一种介于市场与企业之间的资源配置方式.传统交易成本经济学仅仅用交易费用的观点来解释产业网络的形成是有缺陷的,产业网络的形成应该基于契约论的观点从交易成本和生产成本两个方面加以解释.     

基于进化博弈链结构的股票市场非理性泡沫测算问题研究

本文针对股市噪声不断累积,强化和排除的循环过程,基于股票市场对称进化博弈链结构模型,讨论了上海证券交易所正常情况下和极端情况下采用噪声交易策略比例的博弈进化过程和进化稳定策略,并将这个动态比例过程扩展到改进的DSSW模型中,据此测算出上证股市非理性泡沫大小.研究发现,在一定条件下,市场中的噪声交易者越多,风险资产价格非理性泡沫成分越大,波动越剧烈.本文的工作为股市泡沫的分析和测度提供了新的思路和工具.     

生态系统价值评估的经济学认识

本文就目前的研究热点—生态系统服务功能的价值评估的经济学基础进行初步研究和探讨,分析了如何从经济学角度来选择生态系统服务功能的价值评估对象,才能保证结果的可信性。同时,从经济学角度分析了生态系统价值评估存在的难题和困境,为今后的进一步研究提出了建设性方向。     

Valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches: An exploration of validity

The combination of travel cost (TCM) and contingent behaviour (CB) methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community. Contrary to simple TCM applications, TCM-CB facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes, similar to the contingent valuation method (CV). Even though TCM-CB is highly policy relevant, i.e. to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites, the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of TCM-CB compared to CV. In this paper, TCM-CB and CV are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir. Overall, the findings reveal that TCM-CB and CV perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity, but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods. We also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed.