Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

Directed credit,financial development and financial structure: theory and evidence

The recent initiative of the RBI in reviving the policy of directed credit allocation in a period dominated by the neoliberal philosophy necessitates reconsideration of the role of policy-directed credit allocation process on financial development and financial structure of firms. Introducing certain policy parameters, the paper attempts to model how financial development-financial structure interlinkage is influenced by the liberalization policies of the government. The theoretical construct is empirically verified using both aggregated and disaggregated (firm-level) data comprising a panel of 932 Indian manufacturing firms. Findings reveal that following the liberalization measures in the early 1990s, there has been a structural shift in the debt–equity ratio of firms, with equity market activities assuming prominence over time. As regards financial development, it has been observed that the withdrawal of DFIs specialized in term-lending activities in the early 2000s led to a significant increase in the degree of financing constraints faced by the manufacturing firms. This contradicts the basic premise of financial liberalization. The paper argues that under certain conditions, government intervention in the form of directed credit programmes would not only act as an effective instrument in ushering financial development, but also provide important guidelines in ensuring sustainability of institutions.     

Does financial development promote International trade?

Using China’s panel data of 30 provinces during 1990–2003, this paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China’s foreign trade. Four indicators are used to identify the role of financial development, which capture both the scale and efficiency feature of China’s regional financial development. The effects of other variables are also investigated, including traditional factor endowments, foreign direct investment, infrastructure and institutional quality, etc. In general, the estimation results suggest that financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China’s manufactured goods trade, among which the financial efficiency indicators play a more significant role in promoting manufactured goods trade than those scale indicators. Sensitivity estimations show that the effect of financial development on China’s total trade essentially differs from that on trade in manufactured goods.      

金融发展、能源消费与经济增长关系研究——基于动态面板数据的分析

通过面板数据系统广义矩估计方法,从金融发展、能源消费与经济增长的角度对我国1985~2011年省份进行的实证分析发现,整体而言,金融发展、能源消费与经济增长之间存在显著正相关关系;按照东、中、西部三个地区分类估计得出,区域金融发展、能源消费对经济增长的作用效果存在显著的区域差异性:金融发展对经济增长的作用效果存在自东向西逐次递减的现象,而能源消费对东部地区经济增长的作用效果最大,西部居中,中部最小。     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的库兹涅茨效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

金融发展可度量为金融-规模、金融-活动和金融*效率三个主要指标.利用OLS和GMM回归、面板单位根、协整和因果关系检验对中国金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间的关系进行检验后得知: (1)金融发展和城乡收入差距之间存在着库兹涅茨效应,即所谓的倒U关系. (2)中国金融发展规模显著拉大了城乡收入差距,但加强农业贷款对农民收入增长取得了显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距;金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小. (3)金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系;金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之间存在双向因果关系.     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的“库兹涅茨效应”研究

中国当前的金融发展规模显著拉大城乡收入差距.加强农业贷款对农民收入增长具有显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距.金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小,在金融发展和收入差距之间存在库兹涅茨效应.金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系.金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之问存在双向因果关系.     

欠发达地区金融生态环境缺陷及对策——对广西北海市金融生态环境的思考

本文对广西北海市上个世纪90年代以来金融生态环境状况进行分析,认为北海市金融生态环境在上个世纪90年代初遭到严重破坏,金融体系失去平衡,金融生态环境陷入恶性循环,导致地方金融长期有效供给严重不足,信贷供求缺口问题突出.地方经济在严重缺血的状态下低效运转,金融生态系统的效能难以正常发挥,严重制约了经济增长,是北海经济在沿海开放城市中一直处在欠发达状态的一个主要原因.     

金融发展对城市化的影响分析—基于省际面板数据的分析

对我国城市化发展水平缓慢的解释主要来自人口流动以及产业和城市经济发展方面,但是,目前我国的城市化水平提高明显受制于城市最佳人口规模的扩大,即城市的容纳能力。通过对31个省（直辖市、自治区）2000-2006年共计7年的数据进行面板分析的结果表明,金融业发展水平对城市化水平有很显著的促进作用。金融业发展水平的不足将抑制企业创造就业的能力和城市基础设施建设进度,进而减缓了城市化步伐。为促进我国城市化水平的提高,应加强对劳动密集型行业和中小企业的金融扶持;加大城市公共支出方面的金融创新力度以及完善我国金融法律体系。     

Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development

This paper analyzes the emergence and the evolution of a modern banking system, in a developing economy where banks coexist with informal credit institutions. Banks have a superior ability in mobilizing savings while informal lenders enjoy a superior information on borrowers. More specifically, banks cannot observe perfectly the behavior of borrowers; therefore the latter need to provide collateral assets in order to obtain bank loans. Physical collateral is not needed to borrow in the informal credit market: informal lenders can rely on social networks to obtain information on borrowers' behavior and invoke social sanctions to enforce repayment. The sustained growth path is associated with the successful development of the banking system that gathers savings on a large scale. However, informal lenders and other traditional credit institutions are necessary in the first stage of development when collateral is scarce. In this economy, the development of modern financial intermediaries is closely associated with the accumulation of collateral assets by entrepreneurs. This implies that the initial level of development as well as the initial distribution of wealth will determine the joint evolution of the real side of the economy and the financial system. Under certain conditions, two long-run steady-state equilibria exist: in the first one the economy stops growing and the banking system never successfully develops; in the second one the economy reaches a sustained growth rate and the informal sector asymptotically vanishes. The impact of the following policies is discussed: financial repression, micro-credit institutions and redistribution of assets.     

中国金融发展与外贸关系的面板协整检验和因果分析

基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了中国金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系.多种协整检验方法一致表明,金融发展与出口贸易、金融发展与进口贸易之间都存在长期均衡稳定关系;而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明金融发展与对外贸易之间同时存在长、短期双向因果关系.这意味着在金融深化改革和贸易增长方式调整的特殊历史时期,保持金融和贸易政策的有效组合具有十分重要的意义.     

SME credit constraints in Asia’s rising economic star: fresh empirical evidence from Vietnam

This study provides a fresh look at the SME sector’s economic backbone vis-à-vis credit constraint dichotomy in Vietnam—Asia’s rising economic star. The study uses data from the Survey of Manufacturing SMEs in Vietnam from 2005 to 2013 and adopts a two-step Heckman modelling strategy to single out firms with formal financing needs that are credit constrained. Results show that several characteristics—including firm size, investment, financial assets, leverage, equity, registration, gender of owner, age, and education—significantly affect the likelihood of either credit constraints or demand. The main results do not change even when the issue of endogeneity is dealt with. Particularly, we provide evidence that unobserved factors that increase the probability of debt demand also increase the probability of being constrained. Policy implications are discussed.     

金融约束、代理成本假说与企业投资行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

Financial constraints due to the imperfection of capital market have been emphasized as an important factors determining investment by researchers recently. Beside of which, the soft budget constraints (SBC) and agency problem caused by dual property structure of enterprise system are even more important for investment in transitional China. Combing the background of aggregate investment, this paper analyzes the investment behavior and its inner mechanism of listed company in China from different views of SBC, agency cost theory and financial constraints. Based on the empirical study of 1 373 listed company, we find there is indeed some differences for SOE and non-SOE in the aspect of financial constraints even the hypothesis on nexus of cash flow and investment fails. Evidence has been found to support that principal-agency problem in the background of SBC and financial constraints can explain the investment behavior of listed company jointly, which provides another way to interpret the investment behavior of listed company in transitional country. __________ Translated from Nankai Jingji Yanjiu 南开经济研究 (Nankai Economic Studies), 2008, (1): 3–18     

Finance and inequality: Channels and evidence

We provide a framework to interpret the recent literature on financial development and inequality. In many developing countries, access to funding and financial services by firms and households is still very skewed. Recent evidence suggests that poor access does not only reflect economic constraints but also barriers erected by insiders. Inequality affects the distribution of political influence, so financial regulation often is easily captured by established interests in unequal countries. Captured reforms deepen rather than broaden access, as small elites obtain most of the benefits while risks are socialized. Financial liberalization motivated to increase access may in practice increase fragility and inequality, and lead to political backlash against reforms. Thus financial reforms may succeed only if matched by a buildup in oversight institutions. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 748–773.