On long-term credit risk assessment and rating: towards a new set of models

Institutional investors are supposed to assess credit risk by using a combination of quantitative information such as option models and qualitative assessments. Although option models can be easily constructed, they are not so suitable for the assessment of long-term credit risk that is required by institutional investors. This is mainly because the probability of bankruptcy varies so widely depending on the timing of assessment. We propose a new set of assessment models for long-term credit risk which does not necessarily use stock prices and may incorporate business cycles. The new grand model consists of the two pillars: a long-term cash flow prediction model and a credit risk spread assessment model. The calculated values derived from these models are effectively usable for reasonable calculation of risk spreads. It is quite interesting to see that our investigation indicates that rating bias may exist in the credit risk assessment of the market.     

Farm food safety and diseases risk assessments: case studies from the horticultural and salmonid farms

This study explores the perceptions of selected fresh produce and salmonid farms on the types and importance of various risk assessments conducted at the primary production level. Both the fresh produce and salmonid farms in this study are vigilantly conducting risk assessments to prevent or reduce potential food safety and infectious diseases from occurring. The participating farms generally carried out at least eight types of risk assessments such as health and safety, water, workers’ hygiene, site assessment and pesticides/veterinary medicines on an annual basis. Health and safety, pesticides/veterinary health, fresh produce safety and fish health assessments are some of the most important types of risk assessments for the farms. Most farms will continue with the good practice of conducting risk assessments even if it is not required by their customers or regulations but would prefer to reduce the amount of paper/electronic-based risk assessments.     

Risk selection in the London political risk insurance market: the role of tacit knowledge,trust and heuristics

This study demonstrates that the basis of decision-making and risk selection in the London Political Risk Insurance (PRI) market is a combination of Art and Science with such factors as trust and reputation playing an important role. The study breaks new ground by uncovering and examining different methods and strategies of political risk underwriting employed in the insurance market, which does not rely on statistical tools as seen in more traditional insurance types. Adopting a grounded theory approach, the data was generated through 14 semi-structured and unstructured interviews conducted with PRI experts from five PRI companies and two leading political risk broking houses. The data also included documentation reviews and observations.     

Using qualitative types of risk assessments in conjunction with FRAM to strengthen the resilience of systems

Abstract

In this paper, we look into how some qualitative types of risk assessments can be used in conjunction with functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to strengthen the resilience of systems. In FRAM, variation in relation to meeting specified functions is central, but risk and uncertainty considerations are not an integral part. We suggest to add to FRAM an assessment of the modelling choices and judgements using strength of knowledge considerations and a qualitative sensitivity analysis. In this way, an improved basis for assessing and strengthening system resilience with FRAM is established. We illustrate the idea with a simple example from the oil and gas industry.     

Cue usage in financial statement fraud risk assessments: effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use

This paper investigates the effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use on financial statement fraud risk assessments made by directors and students. More extreme fraud risk assessments are made when participants identify and process larger (smaller) numbers of diagnostic (non‐diagnostic) factors, with technical knowledge driving diagnostic factor identification. Significant decision aid‐technical knowledge effects are also found; decision aid use has a detrimental effect on high‐knowledge directors while improving performance in inexperienced, low‐knowledge students. These results suggest that although decision aids can afford gains in performance in inexperienced users, they can have unintended and/or paradoxical behavioural effects on experienced users.     

Measures of risk associated to regulations compliance: a laboratory experiment on the use of common-pool resources

The present research examined the influence of different risk perspectives by the use of four different target persons (who could be affected: abstract person, self, specific person, and specific others) and of four different questionnaire answer formats (rating, open percentage, open, and closed frequency) on risk assessments. It was assumed that subjects use two different systems in terms of probabilistic reasoning: a distributional approach for abstract targets leading to higher risk estimates and a singular approach for specific targets leading to lower risk assessments. According to unrealistic optimism (UO) research (showing higher risk assessments for an abstract person than for self), the assumption was that risk assessments for a specific (named) target lead to lower risk assessments compared to an abstract target. Further, common quantitative answer formats for assessing risk were compared to explore differences in risk estimates. The hypotheses were tested using data of a sample of 512 students from a Bavarian university. The frequently confirmed finding of UO could be replicated with both rating scale and open frequency scale, which appeared to be more sensitive compared to the other used scales. However, UO disappeared when the comparison target was specific. Further, risk assessments for an abstract target were highest within every answer format and lowest for specific targets. Furthermore, results revealed that the type of answer format has a moderating effect on the extent of the influence of risk perspective on risk assessments. Overall, this study gives evidence that both the chosen scale and the risk perspective strongly influence risk assessments. Results aim to contribute to the research fields of quantitative assessment of perceived risk. They suggest that probabilistic reasoning in regard to risk not only underlies motivational or cognitive ego-defensive mechanisms but is rather presumably caused by the use of different systems of inferential strategies.     

Standards for risk assessment of standards: how the international community is starting to address the risk of the wrong standards

Technical standards pervade commerce and society and allow the complexity of modern life to operate at all levels, global included. They also provide protection against many risks, whether from food, from dangerous products or from fraud. They are so self-evidently worthy that they are rarely challenged, yet anything as powerful and pervasive as the web of standards needs some element of oversight and quality assurance. There is a danger of over-regulating and the placing of unnecessary constraints on the market and, cumulatively, a constraint on liberties. Technical standards are derived from many sources and for many reasons. The oversight function may need to relate to these reasons, such as the World Trade Organisation controls on damage to trade through protectionist standards. A very common reason for standards is safety, which tends to be treated as an absolute, as an objective technical matter, and there is less oversight or quality assurance of standards set for safety reasons. But safety is a relative term and increases in safety will usually have costs. Judgement needs to be applied in a risk assessment but that raises institutional issues as to who is qualified to apply that judgement. There are also issues of the accountability of those who increase the safety ratchet, which are also related to the institutional issue. This paper explores a case study of one draft standard as an illustration of the need for oversight and then goes on to consider methods of managing the risks inherent in standardisation and technical regulation. It looks in particular at two recent initiatives from within the standards community itself. One is a broad-based proposal for the community to focus on risk management and the other is an instance where a technical regulator has commissioned and designed an impact assessment system in order to provide that quality assurance and accountability.     

Social risk screening using a socio-political ambiguity approach: the case of organic agriculture in Iran

While ecological sustainability of organic agriculture (OA) has been frequently investigated, there are limited studies on its social sustainability, especially in developing countries. Given significant benefits of OA, screening the potential social risks associated with OA seems necessary. This paper introduces a socio-political ambiguity approach based on a hybrid model of ‘risk and social impact assessment’ for screening the risks of OA. As a case study, the paper focuses on the OA development in Iran using qualitative research to elicit opinions and judgments of farmers, consumers, and policy-makers. The results of the study revealed that there are serious ambiguities and risks associated with OA. This paper demonstrates that risks (especially social risks) of OA have received too little attention and were considered as can be neglected.     

风险管控系统建设评价

风险管控评价是目前国内外理论界与实务界关注的重点,而关注焦点集中于风险管控系统运行期间的评价,对风险管控系统建设阶段的评价则鲜有涉及。本文以风险管控系统建设过程中的成本、进度和质量为对象,探讨如何构建和使用风险管控系统建设评价,为完善风险管控系统评价体系做有益的补充和尝试。     

NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment

The Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate assumptions in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. This QMRA model allows the testing of mitigation strategies for the reduction of human salmonellosis and aims to serve as a basis for science‐based policy making. The NUSAP method was used to assess the subjective component of assumptions in the QMRA model by a set of four pedigree criteria: ‘the influence of situational limitations’, ‘plausibility’, ‘choice space’ and ‘the agreement among peers’. After identifying 13 key assumptions relevant for the QMRA model, a workshop was organized to assess the importance of these assumptions on the output of the QMRA. The quality of the assumptions was visualized using diagnostic and kite diagrams. The diagnostic diagram pinpointed assumptions with a high degree of subjectivity and a high ‘expected influence on the model results’ score. Examples of those assumptions that should be dealt with care are the assumptions regarding the concentration of Salmonella on the pig carcass at the beginning of the slaughter process and the assumptions related to the Salmonella prevalence in the slaughter process. The kite diagrams allowed a clear overview of the pedigree scores for each assumption as well as a representation of expert (dis)agreement. The evaluation of the assumptions using the NUSAP system enhanced the debate on the uncertainty and its communication in the results of a QMRA model. It highlighted the model’s strong and weak points and was helpful for redesigning critical modules. Since the evaluation of assumptions allows a more critical approach of the QMRA process, it is useful for policy makers as it aims to increase the transparency and acceptance of management decisions based on a QMRA model.     

Dis-Ag-reement: the construction and negotiation of risk in the Swedish controversy over antibacterial silver

What constitutes a potentially hazardous object is often debated. This article analyses the polemic construction and negotiation of risk in the Swedish controversy over the use of antibacterial silver in health care and consumer products. This debate engages the media, government agencies, parliament and government, non-governmental organizations and companies. Texts and websites from these actors were studied using content analysis. Antibacterial silver is construed by some actors as a risk object with harmful effects on a series of objects at risk: the environment, public health, organisms and sewage treatment. In contrast, other actors deny that antibacterial silver is a risk object, instead construing it as mitigating risk. In such a schema, antibacterial silver is conceived of as managing the risk objects of bacteria and micro-organisms, in turn managing the risk objects of infection, bad smell and washing, and in turn helping the environment and public health (objects at risk). The structure of the debate suggests two basic modes of risk communication. First, antibacterial silver is construed as a risk object, endangering a variety of objects at risk, such as organisms, public health, the environment and sewage treatment. Second, this association between antibacterial silver and objects at risk is obstructed, by denying that antibacterial silver is a risk object or by associating silver with the benefit of mitigating risk.     

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.     

The social amplification of risk on Twitter: the case of ash dieback disease in the United Kingdom

It has long been recognised that the traditional media play a key role in representing risk and are a significant source of information which can shape how people perceive and respond to hazard events. Early work utilising the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) sought to understand the discrepancy between expert and lay perceptions of risk and patterns of risk intensification and attenuation with reference to the media. However, the advent of Web 2.0 challenges traditional models of communication. To date there has been limited consideration of social media within the SARF and its role in mediating processes of risk perception and communication. Against this backdrop, we focus on the social media platform Twitter to consider the social amplification of risk in relation to ash dieback disease (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus); a tree health issue that attracted intense media attention when it was first identified in the UK in 2012. We present an empirical analysis of 25,600 tweets in order to explore what people were saying about ash dieback on Twitter, who was talking about it and how they talked about it. Our discussion outlines the themes around which talk about ash dieback was orientated, the significance of users’ environmental ‘affiliations’ and the role of including links (URLs) to traditional media coverage. We utilise the notion of ‘piggybacking’ to demonstrate how information is customised in line with group/individual identities and interests and introduce the concept of the ‘frame fragment’ to illustrate how information is selected and moved around Twitter emphasising certain features of the messages. The paper affords a detailed consideration of the way in which people and organisations simultaneously appropriate, construct and pass on risk-relevant information. A conclusion is that social media has the potential to transform the media landscape within which the SARF was originally conceived, presenting renewed challenges for risk communication.     

The effect of cost management knowledge on the relationship between budgetary participation and managerial performance

This study investigates the relationship between budget participation (BP), cost management knowledge and managerial performance. It draws on relevant previous research in the theory of work performance and accounting to formulate the research questions. Eighty-three managers from Finnish companies participated in the study. Data were collected from the managers using a mail questionnaire. The results indicate that managers’ cost management knowledge, and especially the balanced perspective of cost management knowledge, moderates the effect of BP on self-perception of managerial performance. It was specifically found that the effect of BP on perceived managerial performance becomes more positive when managers’ cost management knowledge increases. High perception of managerial performance is obtained when both the BP and managers’ cost management knowledge are high. Our results suggest that organizations should improve the cost management knowledge of managers who participate in the budgeting process.     

Enterprise risk management: An empirical analysis of factors associated with the extent of implementation

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has emerged as a new paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks that face organizations, and policy makers continue to focus on mechanisms to improve corporate governance and risk management. Despite these developments, there is little research on factors associated with the implementation of ERM. Research is needed to provide insights as to why some organizations are responding to changing risk profiles by embracing ERM and others are not.This exploratory study examines factors associated with the stage of ERM implementation at a variety of US and international organizations. Based on data gathered from 123 organizations, we find the stage of ERM implementation to be positively related to the presence of a chief risk officer, board independence, CEO and CFO apparent support for ERM, the presence of a Big Four auditor, entity size, and entities in the banking, education, and insurance industries. We also find US organizations to have less-developed ERM processes than international organizations. We believe this paper will provide an initial foundation for more advanced research about ERM.     

A characterisation of the methodology of qualitative research on the nature of perceived risk: trends and omissions

The issue of how risk is ‘perceived’ is one of significant research interest and immense practical importance. In spite of this wide interest, however, it is probably fair to say that most emerging ‘risk’ crises – whether related to natural or technological phenomena – come as a surprise to researchers and to society as a whole. Prediction of human responses to novel potential hazards (or novel manifestations of old hazards) is neither reliable nor complete; strategies to ameliorate inappropriate concerns when they arise (or to make realistic inappropriate absences of concern) do not appear totally effective. It therefore seems apt to ask the question: just what have we learned about ‘risk perception’? In this paper we conduct a structured review of qualitative research on perceived risk – to be followed by a subsequent analysis of quantitative research in a later paper – focusing upon methodological issues. Qualitative research often precedes quantitative research, and ideally informs it; it seeks depth and meaning from few subjects rather than identifying patterns within larger samples and populations. Without adequate qualitative research, quantitative research risks misanalysis of the target phenomenon, at the very least by the omission of relevant factors and inclusion of irrelevant ones. Our analysis here – of qualitative studies conducted across a range of disciplines, not all of which will be familiar to the readers of this journal – suggests that this research suffers from an incomplete coverage of the ‘risk perception universe’, typified by a focus on atypical hazards and study samples. We summarise the results of this research, while pointing out its limitations, and draw conclusions about future priorities for research of this type.     

The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry

We test the hypothesis that practicing enterprise risk management (ERM) reduces firms’ cost of reducing risk. Adoption of ERM represents a radical paradigm shift from the traditional method of managing risks individually to managing risks collectively allowing ERM-adopting firms to better recognize natural hedges, prioritize hedging activities towards the risks that contribute most to the total risk of the firm, and optimize the evaluation and selection of available hedging instruments. We hypothesize that these advantages allow ERM-adopting firms to produce greater risk reduction per dollar spent. Our hypothesis further predicts that, after implementing ERM, firms experience profit maximizing incentives to lower risk. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms adopting ERM experience a reduction in stock return volatility. We also find that the reduction in return volatility for ERM-adopting firms becomes stronger over time. Further, we find that operating profits per unit of risk (ROA/return volatility) increase post ERM adoption.     

The effects of tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments

Prior research suggests that internal auditors’ judgements are subject to management influence resulting in compromised risk assessments. This study investigates the effects of the tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments. Results of an experiment involving 64 internal auditors indicate that when the tone at the top is poor, rather than favouring management, internal auditors report a higher risk of intentional misstatements and that coordination with external auditors can further reduce expectations of the incidence of intentional misstatements.