Time-varying transmission efficiency of China’s monetary policy

This paper tries to investigate the time-varying characteristics of China’s monetary policy transmission from the impulse response evidence of both open-economy DSGE model and TVP-VAR model. We find that the transmission efficiency of price-based monetary policy has significantly improved over the sample period, while quantity-based monetary policy is weakening. The resume of exchange reform in 2010 also strengthens the exchange rate channel especially in terms of price-based monetary policy. Combining with the evidence from DSGE model underlines the importance of further interest rate liberalization and price-based monetary policy Taylor rule should also consider the exchange rate stability.     

Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?

While the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real price of oil in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification, which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries’ real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial.     

The Presence of Multinational Banks and the Supply and Quality of Credit in Emerging Economies

Barriers to entry for multinational banks (MNBs) have been reduced in many countries. This paper studies the effect of the presence of MNBs on the supply and quality of credit in emerging economies. This study uses data from the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund. The results indicate that the credit supply declines in response to increased competition from MNBs. However, the adverse effect of MNBs on the credit supply is less pronounced when the presence of MNBs is larger. The paper also provides some tentative results on the effect of MNBs on the quality of loans. The results suggest that banks shift their portfolios away from loans as a result of increased international financial competition, thereby reducing default risk, which is also reflected in a negative relationship between MNB presence and the chance of a banking crisis occurring.     

The 2007–2009 financial crisis: changing market dynamics and the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity

This article singles out the determinants of changes in US firms’ systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the 2007–2009 financial crisis. After establishing that systematic risk changes during the crisis, the results show that higher operational and financial leverage coincide with an increase in systematic risk, while high cash availability is associated with a decrease in systematic risk. The crisis-induced idiosyncratic return worsens with increasing financial leverage, higher sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks and banking sector problems, and lower operational leverage. Additional results show that the aforementioned variables have economically large effects on firm performance during the crisis.     

基于石油供应单因素风险因子数学模型研究

本文在分析石油供应风险影响因素的基础上,通过建立预测石油供应风险因子的数学模型,利用这些数学模型对石油供应风险进行定量的研究,从深层次上认识石油供应风险因子的变化特点,为石油供应风险预警和有效地控制风险提供更多的信息支持.     

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis

The author explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Although oil-price shocks are the most commonly cited examples of aggregate supply shocks, they violate the model's assumption of constant relative prices (as acknowledged by the label, “oil-price shocks”). The resulting problems are effectively masked in textbook presentations by implicitly assuming that the supply shocks occur in a closed economy. However, the typical discussion is glaringly inaccurate when discussing the effects of oil-price shocks on oil-rich countries. Thus, the cogency of the standard model's representation of oil-price shocks on open economies is compromised. A simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption goods enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies.     

考虑价格因素的原油进口多元化路径研究

价格风险是我国原油进口面临的主要风险之一,通过构建我国原油进口的价格-风险模型,量化研究了我国原油进口来源国的最优风险结构。结论显示,中东地区依然是我国最重要的原油进口来源地,进口更多来自政治稳定地区的原油,可以有效地分散我国原油的供应风险。从长期来看,我国需要积极拓展更多的石油供应渠道,进一步提高从阿联酋、美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦、埃及以及卡塔尔的进口量,保证我国的原油进口安全。     

中印在海外石油能源供给中的竞合态势及博弈分析

随着中国和印度经济的崛起，两国对能源特别是石油的需求越来越大。由于两国国内石油储量有限，石油的生产远不能满足国内经济迅速增长的需求，这使得两国近年来在寻找海外石油供给来源时频频“碰撞”，存在争夺能源之势。由于两国特殊的国情，决定了两国必须在这个问题上采取合作的态度以避免“双输”。     

Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?

We examine the effect of uncertainty concerning remaining supplies of conventional crude oil and its production path on: the date alternative fuels will be needed, the quantity of alternative fuels needed, and how this uncertainty affects firms' willingness to provide alternatives in a timely fashion. Despite large uncertainties about the quantity of oil that remains and its production path, the start date for replacements is likely to fall within a twenty-two year period that is narrower and earlier than previous estimates. The twenty-two year window represents considerable uncertainty about the date of the peak and this uncertainty creates an asymmetry in the strategy that maximizes the welfare of firms relative to total social welfare, which works against the market's ability to generate a smooth transition from oil to alternative fuels. The timeliness of this transition is critical—the production paths generated here suggest that 10 million barrels per day or more of alternative fuels will be needed within a decade of the peak in production of conventional crude oil.     

A Historical Note on the Use of Fiction to Teach Principles of Economics

The use of the novel to teach economics is traced back from its contemporary form to the early nineteenth century. The degree of economic sophistication in the earliest books is particularly impressive.     

What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach based on aggregate models of the macroeconomy. In this article, the authors discuss the advantages and shortcomings of each approach in the context of course objectives. Because there is significant heterogeneity in textbook coverage, the authors summarize some of the approaches taken in current intermediate-level textbooks, which should serve as a useful starting point for new instructors. The authors also discuss how each approach can be extended to analyze the recent recession in the United States.     

The cost-effectiveness of levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel compared to standard care in advanced Parkinson’s disease

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable, progressive neurological condition, with symptoms impacting movement, walking, and posture that eventually become severely disabling. Advanced PD (aPD) has a significant impact on quality-of-life (QoL) for patients and their caregivers/families. Levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel (LCIG) is indicated for the treatment of advanced levodopa-responsive PD with severe motor fluctuations and hyper-/dyskinesia when available combinations of therapy have not given satisfactory results.

Aims: To determine the cost-effectiveness of LCIG vs standard of care (SoC) for the treatment of aPD patients.

Methods: A Markov model was used to evaluate LCIG vs SoC in a hypothetical cohort of 100 aPD patients with severe motor fluctuations from an Irish healthcare perspective. Model health states were defined by Hoehn &; Yahr (H&;Y) scale—combined with amount of time in OFF-time—and death. SoC comprised of standard oral therapy?±?subcutaneous apomorphine infusion and standard follow-up visits. Clinical efficacy, utilities, and transition probabilities were derived from published studies. Resource use was estimated from individual patient-level data from Adelphi 2012 UK dataset, using Irish costs, where possible. Time horizon was 20 years. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 4%. Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LCIG vs SOC was €26,944/quality adjusted life year (QALY) (total costs and QALYs for LCIG vs SoC: €537,687 vs €514,037 and 4.37 vs 3.49, respectively). LCIG is cost-effective at a payer threshold of €45,000. The model was most sensitive to health state costs.

Conclusion: LCIG is a cost-effective treatment option compared with SoC in patients with aPD.     

我国房地产市场供给过剩了吗？——基于供给—有效需求比（S/ED）的测度

基于房地产兼具生活必需品和投资品的特性,分析了房地产市场供给过剩的形成机制,在此基础上构建了房地产市场供给过剩的度量指标,即供给—有效需求比指标。通过供给—有效需求比指标对我国房地产市场的供给、需求分析发现：在20%的首付比例的假设下,我国房地产市场经历了供不应求和供给过剩两个阶段,从1995年到2006年,我国房地产市场处于供给不足状态;从2007年到2011年,逐渐呈现出供给过剩,2011年过剩尤为严重。构建的供给—有效需求比指标和研究结果对企业和政府准确判断房地产市场的态势、采取相应的战略和对策等方面都具有较强的参考价值。     

中国金融结构问题与M2/GDP偏高现象研究

上世纪90年代中期尤其是1997年之后,流动性过剩和资产价格剧烈波动成为中国经济运行中的典型现象,表现为货币供给量的变化和实体经济变量即产出和物价变化的脱节———M2/GDP偏高现象。根据宏观经济学的分析框架,货币总量与名义GDP之比作为衡量流动性过剩的尺度,反映了货币供求状态与实体宏观经济总量之间的关系。当流动性过剩成为持续现象时,说明相对于实体经济形成的总供给,货币市场持续出现超额供给,即货币市场提供的一部分货币资金没有流向实体经济,或投入到实体经济的货币资金没有形成真实的商品供给。由于现代货币制度下,货币供给量与金融体系提供的信贷规模和信贷资金流向紧密联系。因此考察流动性过剩现象应该更多关注金融结构,进而金融资源的配置方式和效率的变化。本文结合金融结构发展情况分析中国M2/GDP偏高现象,揭示金融结构发展中的问题并提出相应对策。