The employment dynamics of different population groups over the business cycle

We examine differences in employment dynamics across population groups using Bayesian vector autoregressions. We document that groups who are particularly strongly affected by business-cycle fluctuations (males, young people, non-whites, the less educated, and workers in blue-collar occupations) also tend to be affected early in the build-up of a boom or bust. We further identify the drivers of the different cyclicalities across population groups. Supply shocks seem to be most important for the heterogeneous employment fluctuations and particularly for the early effects of recessions and booms on the most affected groups. Dynamics in sectoral activity and in hiring rates can help to understand our findings.     

Life satisfaction and self-employment in different types of occupations

In this research, we investigate whether a positive relationship between life satisfaction and self-employment (versus paid employment) exists while simultaneously considering two occupational dimensions: white-collar versus blue-collar work and high-skilled versus low-skilled work. Using Eurobarometer data for a large number of European countries (2008–2012), our findings confirm that self-employed workers are more satisfied with their lives than paid employees are. A life satisfaction premium is also found when the self-employed and paid employees are compared within similar occupations in terms of collar type and skill level. Finally, self-employment can help to overcome low life satisfaction scores associated with blue-collar and low-skilled work.     

The future employment impacts of industrial robots : An input-output approach

An input-output framework is employed to estimate the indirect as well as direct effects of industrial robots on employment by industry sector and occupation. Net employment impacts are defined as the combined effects of the production and the use of industrial robots under the assumption that the demand for goods produced with this new technology is unaffected. These employment effects are estimated as the difference between a base economy (1977) and the same economy with an additional robot-producing sector and given (1990) stocks of robots installed in manufacturing industries. Six scenarios are defined by alternative levels of Robotics sector output and installed robots. The results show that job displacement is 4.5 to 6.2 times greater than job creation, that under the most extreme scenario the aggregate net job loss is 718,000, about 0.7 percent of total 1984 employment, and that the growth occupations (engineers) are highly skilled and white-collar while the declining occupations (welders, painters, machine operators, laborers) are relatively low skilled and blue-collar.     

The employment–population nexus and implications for sustainable economic development: insights from Irish regions using a partial adjustment model

In this paper, we use a partial adjustment model to analyse the relationship between employment and population growth in Irish district electoral divisions. We employ a spatial estimator to augment our partial adjustment model with a spatial lag and spatial error process. Our results indicate a dual relationship between employment and population growth, suggesting that not only do people follow jobs but also jobs follow people. This finding has implications for economic development policies, which typically focus solely on attracting jobs to a location. The results suggest that a dual-pronged approach to policy may be necessary including developing a region’s amenities to ensure that it is attractive to people and to stimulate population growth. We highlight how our analysis can be used to inform policy through the lenses of place-based and smart specialisation strategies.     

Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.     

Offshoring and employment structure in the EU periphery: the case of Spain

The effects of offshoring of production have received a great deal of interest due to their implications on labour markets. However, the main theoretical predictions related to this issue are not always fulfilled in the empirical analysis; according to the Stolper–Samuelson theorem, there seems to be unanimous support for its effects in advanced countries whose production is relocated but not at all for recipient economies of the same. Additionally, there is a lack of empirical evidence in countries specialized in unskilled-labour tasks which are, at the same time, economies with higher relative wages in a global framework such as the Spanish economy. In this sense, the aim of this article is to analyse the effects of material offshoring in the relative composition of employment in the Spanish manufacturing industry during the period 1990–2007. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of immigrant labour and the temporary employment rate due to its increasing relevance in the Spanish economy during the period analysed. Using a generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach, our results suggest that, as opposed to most developed countries, offshoring in Spain has favoured the demand for blue-collar workers. In addition, we confirm that the increase in immigration and the increasing use of temporary contracts have enlarged the share of low-skilled workers.     

MINIMUM WAGE IMPACTS IN CHINA: ESTIMATES FROM A PRESPECIFIED RESEARCH DESIGN, 2000–2007

We use a prespecified research design to estimate the employment effect of minimum wages in China over the period 2000 to 2007. Our results are consistent with theoretical expectations and institutional realities of Chinese labor markets. These include: negative employment effects in slower growing regions; larger negative effects in non‐state‐owned organizations that tend to be more responsive to market pressures; much larger lagged effects reflecting the time needed for adjustments to occur; no adverse employment effects in the prosperous and growing Eastern region; and a positive employment effect in state‐owned enterprises in the East—consistent with monopsonistic behavior. (JEL J38)     

Does accessibility to local public employment agencies matter? Answers from a French quasi-experiment

We question whether accessibility to local public employment agencies impacts exits from unemployment. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the residential location of jobseekers by using the unanticipated creation of a new agency in the French region of Lyon as a quasi-natural experiment. We use exhaustive and geo-located individual data on jobseekers and local public employment agencies. Contrary to past evidence based on aggregated data, we find no evidence that jobseekers with improved accessibility to the local public employment services experience an improvement of their probability of exiting unemployment. We however find evidence of transitory organizational effects. These findings strongly question the costly strategy of a fine distribution of local public employment agencies across the territory while suggesting that institutional issues are key.     

Wage and Mobility Effects of Trade and Migration on the Austrian Labour Market

This study analyses the effect of trade and migration on wages and labour marketmobility. We estimate wage growth equations and a multinomial logit mobilityequation on an individual data set ranging from 1991 to 1994. We find substantialdifferences in the reactions of white and blue-collar workers wages and mobilityto trade and migration. In Austria exports have a positive and imports a negativeimpact on wage growth only for blue-collar workers. Migrants also reduce onlyblue-collar workers wage growth. Our results indicate that higher imports and aninflow of migrants reduce sectoral mobility of all types workers. The risk of beingout of work by contrast is increased by migration and imports only for blue-collarworkers, but reduced by exports for all types of workers. In general our results suggestenlargement of the EU would have only small effects on the Austrian labour market.     

Labor market reforms, job instability, and the flexibility of the employment relationship

We endogenize separation in a search model of the labor market and allow for bargaining over the continuation of employment relationships following productivity shocks to take place under asymmetric information. In such a setting separation may occur even if continuation of the employment relationship is privately efficient for workers and firms. We show that reductions in the cost of separation, owing for example to a reduction in firing taxes, lead to an increase in job instability and, when separation costs are initially high, may be welfare decreasing for workers and firms. We furthermore show that, in response to an exogenous reduction in firing taxes, workers and firms may switch from rigid to flexible employment contracts, which further amplifies the increase in job instability caused by policy reform.     

A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

A model leading to employment hysteresis due to sunk hiring- and firing-costs is proposed. A potential mechanism based on a band of inaction that could account for a 'weaker' relationship between employment and its determinants is augmented by exchange rate uncertainty. As a result of option value effects the band of inaction is widened. Thus, the hysteresis effects are strongly amplified by exchange rate uncertainty (as numerical examples demonstrate). Non-linearities in the employment-relation are implied, i.e. 'spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response to a reversal of the exchange rate.     

Minimum Wages for Ronald McDonald Monopsonies: a Theory of Monopsonistic Competition

Recent empirical work on the effects of minimum wages has called into question the conventional wisdom that minimum wages invariably reduce employment. We develop a model of monopsonistic competition with free entry to analyse the effects of minimum wages, and our predictions fit the empirical results closely. Under monopsonistic competition, we find that a rise in the minimum wage raises employment per firm, causes firm exit and may increase or reduce industry employment. Minimum wages increase welfare if they raise industry employment but welfare effects are ambiguous if employment falls.     

Firm size distribution and employment fluctuations: Theory and evidence

We show that the firm-size distribution is an important determinant of the relationship between an industry's employment and output. A theoretical model predicts that changes in demand for an industry's output have larger effects on employment, resulting from adjustments at both the intensive and extensive margin, in industries characterised by a distribution that has a lower density of large firms. Industry-specific shape parameters of the firm size distributions are estimated using firm-level data from Germany, Sweden and the UK, and used to augment a relationship between industry-level employment and output. The empirical results align with the predictions of the theory.     

Full wages,part-time employment and the minimum wage

The economic effects of the minimum wage have become increasingly ambiguous. Historically, economists have asserted that increases in the minimum wage result in increases in unemployment. This relationship has been challenged recently by Card and Krueger, Katz and Krueger, and Card. These authors have provided empirical evidence that seems to indicate that there is no relationship between various economic variables (such as level of employment, and product price, among others) and the minimum wage. In addition, these authors have not provided a cogent presentation of the effects of the minimum wage on part-time employment. This study examines, from a theoretical standpoint, the effects of the minimum wage on employment. Furthermore, we emphasize the distinction between money wages and full wages; and the role that part-time employmentplays in the analysis. After incorporating these factors into a theoretical presentation, we provide empirical evidence by way of an OLS regression. We conclude that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage by altering the level of part-time employment. By doing this, firms are able to absorb the minimum wage increase because part timers receive fewer fringe benefits.     

Product diversification and stability of employment and sales: first evidence from German manufacturing firms

In this study, we use a unique rich newly built data set for German manufacturing enterprises to investigate the relationship between product diversification and the stability of sales and employment. We find that contrary to portfolio theoretic considerations, more diversified firms exhibit a higher variability of sales and employment. However, the effects are negligibly small from an economics point of view.     

Technological Activity and Employment in a Panel of UK Firms

We investigate the relationship between technological activity, proxied by R&D, patents, and trade marks, and employment for a panel of British production firms from 1987 to 1994. We modify standard derived demand for labour to include technology variables. We find employment is fostered by R&D expenditure and UK patent publications, ceteris paribus on factor costs and current sales. The employment impact of R&D is bigger in high technology sectors, but employment increase from UK patenting activity is bigger in mature technology sectors. In further analysis of persistent differences (the estimated firm fixed effects) UK trade marks and US patents are also positively associated with employment.     

产业聚集对区域创新绩效影响的实证研究——以电子及通讯设备制造业为例

分析了产业聚集所产生的各类知识溢出对区域创新绩效的影响以及产业聚集的最佳聚集程度和规模,并以我国电子及通讯设备制造业为例进行实证研究。结果显示:多样化的产业环境有助于区域创新,竞争对区域创新存在负面影响,研发多样化对区域创新的影响并不显著;总就业密度提高一倍,则创新水平将提高24%;就业密度与区域创新绩效的关系曲线呈倒U型,且就业密度均为600人/平方公里时区域创新绩效达到最高;区域人口规模与区域创新绩效的关系曲线呈U型,对应拐点大致出现在区域人口总规模为6500万人处。     

Employment and Productivity Growth in Europe and North America: The Impact of Labor Market Institutions

In this paper, we examine long-run employment and productivity growth in the major economies of North America and Europe from 1960 to the early 1990s. We develop a model in which output growth is determined by the growth of aggregate demand, and the relative contributions of employment and productivity growth to the growth of output depend on country specific labor market institutions. We find that institutions that promote collective bargaining, employment security and social protection have roughly equal and opposite effects on employment growth (negative) and productivity growth (positive), giving rise to an inverse relationship between these variables. The welfare implications of this finding are that labor market deregulation could result in more work and greater inequality and insecurity for workers, without significantly increasing the rate of economic growth.     

Corporate pollution control strategies and labor demand: evidence from China’s manufacturing sector

The loss of employment is an essential issue that looms large in policy debates on pollution control. This paper estimates the impact of pollution reduction on labor demand in China’s manufacturing sector in the period 2001–2007. We conduct this research by using a sample with unbalanced panel data matched from two unique datasets of environmental statistics and an industrial economic database. Using the environmental performance of peer firms as the instrumental variable, our overall results show that improvements in environmental performance through reductions in \( SO _2\) emissions and COD emissions led to a statistically significant reduction in employment. On average, a 1% reduction in \( SO _2\) (COD) emissions causes a reduction in labor demand of approximately 0.018–0.019% (0.012–0.013%). We complement existing studies by carefully examining the impacts of firms’ different abatement strategies on labor demand. We find that pollution reduction through pollution prevention has substitutive effects on employment and that pollution reduction through pollution control at the end of the production process may require additional workers and thus has positive but not significant effects on labor demand. Finally, pollution control has heterogeneous effects on labor demand by different types of polluting firms (e.g., ownership, region, and industry).     

FDI流入对中国内资企业就业和工资水平影响的计量分析

利用中国2001~2003年经济普查数据,从企业层面就FDI流入对内资企业的就业和工资水平的影响进行实证分析表明:FDI流入对内资企业工资水平的正面效应是非常明显的,但有别于以前结论的是,企业层面FDI流入对就业水平的促进作用并不明显。原因在于外资的进入可能会对内资企业产生挤出效应,从而抵消通过关联效应带来的就业增加。所有制、创新能力和出口倾向也是影响FDI流入对内资企业就业和工资水平产生效应的重要因素。