The economic determinants of cereal crop diversity on farms in the Ethiopian highlands

In less favoured areas such as the highlands of Ethiopia, farmers manage risk through land allocation to crops and varieties since they cannot depend on market mechanisms to cope. They also grow traditional varieties that are genetically diverse and have potential social value. Supporting the maintenance of crop and variety diversity in such locations can address both the current needs of farmers and future needs of society, though it entails numerous policy challenges. We estimate a model of crop and variety choice in a theoretical framework of the farm household model to compare the determinants of crop and variety diversity, revealing some of these policy considerations. Farm physical features and household characteristics such as wealth and labour stocks have large and significant effects on both the diversity among and within cereal crops, varying among crops. Policies designed to encourage variety diversity in one cereal crop may have opposing effects in another crop. Trade-offs between development-related factors and diversity in this resource-poor system are not evident, however. Market-related variables and population density have ambiguous effects. Education positively influences cereal crop diversity. Growing modern varieties of maize or wheat does not detract from the richness or evenness of these cereals on household farms.     

Farm-level adaptation to climate change in Western Bangladesh: An analysis of adaptation dynamics,profitability and risks

Using long-term district-level climate data and a case study from a drought-prone village in western Bangladesh, this research explored trends in climate change, and analysed farmers’ adaptation dynamics, profitability and risks. This is the first study of its kind for drought-prone areas in Bangladesh.Farmers perceived climate changes included increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall which were as consistent with the trends of Chuadanga climate records. Farmers’ adaptation measures included changes in cropping systems, cropping calendars, crop varieties, agronomic practices, crop diversification and improved animal husbandry. Reducing environmental stress, ensuring self-sufficiency in staple crops (mainly rice) and other crop production practices, and enhancing economic viability of farm enterprises have underpinned these adaptations. Off-farm and non-farm wage employment, temporary migration, self-employment and educating children, constituted the core non-farm adaptation strategies.Emerging cropping systems like maize/cucumber and maize/stem amaranth/rice were economically more viable than the traditional rice/rice and rice/maize systems. Despite some uncertainties, farming was preferred to off-farm work, generating higher returns to labour for all cropping systems. Limited access to stress-tolerant varieties, extension services and affordable agricultural credit, combined with high production costs, variability in crop yields and output prices, are the main barriers to adaptation. Stronger agricultural research and support services, affordable credit, community-focussed farming education and training are critically important for effective adaptation to climate change.     

Modelling the Crop Variety Demand of Semi‐Subsistence Households: Bananas in Uganda

We propose an approach to model the derived demand for crop varieties among semi‐subsistence farmers in a developing economy, and apply it to smallholder banana producers in Uganda. We model variety planting decisions as being composed of an extensive margin decision to grow a subset of locally available varieties (variety choice); and an intensive margin decision about the scale or extent of variety cultivation per farm (variety demand). We estimate variety demand equations using a more complete representation of the choice set upon which observed planting decisions are made. Computed elasticities of variety demand with respect to variety attributes indicate that the relative importance of consumption and production attributes varies by location and proximity to markets, from which we draw implications for the social and economic impact of crop improvement. The approach that we propose has broad appeal for analysing adoption decisions for modern or traditional varieties of both major and minor crops in developing countries.     

Measuring postharvest losses at the farm level in Malawi

This article measures farm‐level postharvest losses for maize, soya and groundnuts among 1,200 households in Malawi. Farmers answered a detailed questionnaire designed to learn about losses during harvest and transport, processing and storage and which measures both complete losses and crop damage. The findings indicate that fewer than half of households report suffering losses conditional on growing each crop. Conditional on losses occurring, the loss averages between 5 and 12 per cent of the farmer's total harvest. Compared to nationally representative data that measure losses using a single survey question, this study documents a far greater percentage of farmers experiencing losses. We find that losses are concentrated in harvest and processing activities for groundnuts and maize; for soya, they are highest during processing. Existing interventions have primarily targeted storage activities; however, these results suggest that targeting other activities may be worthwhile.     

Conservation practice complementarity and timing of on-farm adoption

The adoption of conservation practices is a dynamic process. Factors that vary over time can affect farmers’ decision to adopt and adoption timing. We used a duration model to evaluate the farmer's adoption time for continuous no-till (CNT), cover crops (CCs), and the variable-rate application of inputs (VRA). We found that producers who had previously adopted soil conservation practices were more likely to adopt additional complementary practices. Farmers using crop rotation adopted CNT and CCs approximately 48% and 62% faster than farmers without a crop rotation, respectively. The CC adoption time was also reduced by 70% for farmers who had adopted CNT. Complementarities between conservation practices may enhance the benefits from adoption and allow farmers to adopt bundles of conservation practices more quickly over time. This can be taken advantage of in conservation programs by promoting or requiring practices first that enhance adoption of other practices. We also found important heterogeneity in the adoption speed associated with farm management characteristics, producers’ attitudes, weather patterns, and crop prices.     

Determinants of spatial diversity in modern wheat: examples from Australia and China

The spatial distribution of modern varieties, and the genes they embody, has economic value because it affects crop productivity from year to year. Since farmers choose varieties based on observable traits rather than the genes they cannot see, a first step in understanding the spatial distribution of genes is to better understand the determinants of the spatial distribution of varieties. In this paper, we have constructed spatial diversity indices from area distributions of modern wheat varieties in Australia and China. We hypothesise that factors explaining variation in these indices are related to farmers' demand for traits and the supply of varieties, given physical features of the production environment. We test these hypotheses using reduced form equations for three concepts of spatial diversity, richness, abundance and evenness, using Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Spatial diversity indicators and analyses of this type, if more fully developed and targeted to address specific policy issues, may assist in monitoring crop genetic diversity or ‘refuge’ targets associated with the diffusion of some genetically modified crops.     

Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach

Drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties have received massive support in sub‐Saharan Africa because of their potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related maize yield losses. Using four waves of household farm panel data from six districts in Malawi, we examine the impact heterogeneity of this technology on maize productivity using a continuous treatment approach. We find strong evidence of positive correlation between maize yield and adoption of DT maize varieties. On average, an increase by one hectare in the area allocated to DT varieties increases maize yield by 547 Kg/ha representing a 44% increase from the average maize yield of 1,254 Kg/ha for our sample. Our findings give evidence that DT maize technology has potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related production losses. Policies that promote increased allocation of maize area to DT maize hold potential to enhance food security. Smallholder farmers especially in drought‐prone areas should be encouraged to allocate at least one‐third of the maize plot to DT varieties while breeders continue with the efforts of breeding a DT variety that is not only drought tolerant but also adapted to all weather conditions. More importantly, the government should ensure provision of timely ex ante weather information to guide farmers on decision‐making with respect to maize varietal choices.     

Utilizing conjoint analysis to design modern crop varieties: empirical example for groundnut in Niger

Preferences for monetary and non-monetary plant traits influence modern crop variety adoption decisions of farmers. To enhance adoption probability of modem crop varieties, it is necessary to identify and locus research on traits that significantly contribute to utility while de-emphasizing insignificant plant attributes. This paper illustrates the potential for applying conjoint analysis to aid the design and targeting of client-responsive modern crop varieties, farmers ranked eight orthogonally-derived plant trail combinations used in an illustrative example. Utilities were estimated using the choice-probability-based method of ordered probit. Results showed that conjoint analysis can differentiate significant and non-significant trails of modern crop varieties. The usefulness of applying conjoint analysis over identifiable disaggregated groups of a sample was also evident. Future application of conjoint analysis to the design and targeting of modern crop varieties should carefully consider sample composition and size to permit the estimation of relevant sub-models for desired farmer segments.     

Adoption of improved maize varieties in the hills of Nepal

Maize (Zea mays L.) is the most important cereal crop in the hills of Nepal, where the grain is used for human consumption and the stover for animal fodder. Maize farms are small, and population pressure necessitates the intensification of existing farming systems. Maize research directed at developing technologies for maize production began in Nepal in 1965. In 2000, a survey was carried out in two districts to determine the current level of adoption of improved maize production practices. In each of these districts, remote and accessible village development committees (VDCs) were surveyed. Questionnaires were administered to 54 randomly selected households in each VDC. A Tobit analysis was used to determine socio‐economic, physical and technology factors that influence the use of improved varieties by farmers. All households use composted farmyard manure, and in the more accessible areas, urea as part of their soil fertility management strategy. Use of improved varieties was less than 60% for all VDCs and only 15% in the most remote VDC. In three of the four VDCs, adoption of improved varieties primarily occurred during the past 5 years. Based on a Tobit analysis, Khet land area, ethnic group, years of fertiliser use, off‐farm income, and contact with extension significantly and positively affected adoption of improved varieties. Farmers in VDCs in central Nepal reported lack of seed to be the major constraint to the adoption of improved varieties, while lack of knowledge of new varieties was the major constraint for farmers in the western VDCs. The results from this survey suggest that the strategy for improving the adoption of new varieties will differ depending on infrastructure and the socio‐economic conditions of the farmers in a given area.     

A Case of Mistaken Identity? Measuring Rates of Improved Seed Adoption in Tanzania Using DNA Fingerprinting

Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries are almost always based on household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers can accurately self-report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers’ reports of seed varieties planted, or even whether the seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the DNA fingerprinting results of those crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer-reported and DNA-identified maize seed types planted. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertiliser, and labour allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers’ seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. The average yield of seed that is correctly identified as improved is almost 700 kg per hectare greater than that of type I errors. This indicates that investments in farmers’ access to information, seed labelling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development.     

Crop‐Level Supply Response by Agro‐Climatic Region in Ethiopia

Using farm‐level survey data from Ethiopia, this paper estimates a quadratic restricted profit function to assess the supply response of smallholder farmers. All major crops are identified in the analysis and variations in agro‐climatic and farming systems are accounted for. Peasant farmers, at least in the more commercial Central and Southern zones, do respond positively and significantly to price incentives. Farmers in the Northern zone are least commercial and least responsive to prices, and in fact the model based on profit maximisation does not adequately capture their behaviour. In general, non‐price factors, especially rainfall and market access, are more important than prices in affecting poduction, and which factors are most important varies depending on the crop and region in question. We conclude with suggestions regarding which crops appear most suitable to each agro‐climatic region, and identify the most relevant policy interventions in each case.     

Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi

This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security.     

Adoption of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties under Rainfall Stress in Malawi

We examine adoption of drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties using a four‐round panel dataset from six districts in Malawi. There is an increase in adoption of DT maize from 3% in 2006 to 43% in 2015 in our data. We focus on the effect of past drought exposure on adoption and the likelihood of DT maize being distributed under the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). Results show that past exposure to drought increases the probability of DT maize seed being distributed through FISP. Farmers who accessed maize seed subsidy coupons and were previously exposed to late season dry spells are more likely to use the seed subsidy coupon to redeem DT maize seed. The likelihood of adoption and adoption intensity (area under DT maize) are positively influenced by previous early season dry spells and access to seed subsidy. Previous late season droughts also positively affect adoption intensity. On the other hand, area share under DT maize is positively correlated with early season dry spells and past exposure to late season dry spells but negatively related to seed subsidy. FISP in Malawi appears to have stimulated adoption of DT maize directly through subsidy and indirectly through generating farmers’ experiences of the performance of DT varieties under drought conditions.     

Unconventional adjustment strategies for rural households in the less developed areas in Greece

International competition in agricultural production is intensifying following the implementation of the 1993 accord of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The production of conventional farm products in surplus is being discouraged by means of indirect economic disincentives. The Common Agricultural Policy has already adjusted to unprotected national markets within the European Union and greater market orientation is being achieved mainly through price reductions. Farmers in the less developed areas in Greece, where agricultural activity is still the main source of income and employment, have been responding to policy reforms by seeking part-time employment and income in non-farm enterprises. The adoption of alternative, unconventional farm enterprises that use farm resources in an innovative and quantitatively different way does have the potential for bringing in a new source of income to farm business. For the purpose of this research three adjustment strategies were recognised. The ‘conventional’ (no change) pathway is based on traditional, region-specific products, production methods and services. The adoption of the ‘new crop’ pathway refers to the redeployment of resources into new agricultural products, whereas farms on the market integration Pathway redeploy resources into new marketing services and agricultural product processing on the farm. The new crop and the market integration pathways are identified as unconventional adjustment strategies. Results derived from multinomial logit analysis highlight the major constraints and opportunities associated with the adoption of new crops and market integration practices. Farmers who have adopted unconventional practices are influenced by factors external to the farm. such as contacts with institutions, and have a high probability of having higher debts. These farmers are likely to depend heavily on seasonal labour and rented land. The fact that market integration activities are associated with smaller farms in conjunction with off-farm work signifies the importance of establishing an integrated rural development policy approach. Public policy involvement in enhancing dissemination of information concerning unconventional enterprises is emphasised.     

On‐Farm Conservation of Rice Biodiversity in Nepal: A Simultaneous Estimation Approach

This paper presents an empirical case study about farmer management of rice genetic resources in two communities of Nepal, drawing on interdisciplinary, participatory research that involved farmers, rice geneticists and social scientists. The decision‐making process of farm households is modelled and estimated in order to provide information for the design of community‐based conservation programmes. A bivariate model with sample selection examines the simultaneous process of whether farmers decide to plant landraces or modern varieties, and whether the landraces they choose to plant constitute the genetic diversity of interest for future crop improvement. Findings show that the two landrace choices are affected by different social and economic factors, but in certain cases the decision processes are interrelated. Policies to promote the conservation of local rice diversity will need to take both processes into account.     

The role of systems thinking in cover crop adoption: Implications for conservation communication

To address critical water quality problems, significant public and private sector resources in the U.S. have been directed to promoting and supporting the adoption of conservation practices. Cover crops, in particular, have been a focus of outreach and policy efforts due to their multiple benefits for crop production, carbon sequestration, soil health, and water quality. We hypothesize that Indiana’s state and local agencies have emphasized a systems approach to conservation planning and farm management, which has been successful in reaching a subset of farmers and has established Indiana as a national leader in cover crop adoption. We contend that the systems approach to conservation adoption is not a salient message to farmers who have yet to implement conservation, thus adoption (particularly cover crops) may be stagnant. Early work on systems thinking (ST) in conservation is dominated by qualitative research. Here, we make a first attempt to quantify the relationship between ST and cover crop adoption through producer surveys administered in three Indiana watersheds – St Marys, Big Pine, and Upper White. We found that farmers who adopted cover crops were more likely to be systems thinkers than farmers who had not adopted cover crops. These results have significant implications for conservation planners and educators across the U.S. and internationally who are working to implement additional conservation acreage – a whole farm systems approach to conservation messaging may not be an effective method for farmers who have yet to implement conservation.     

Quantifying the socio-economic determinants of sustainable crop production: an application to wheat cultivation in the Tarai of Nepal

This study specifies a procedure to quantify the determinants of sustainable crop production, and applies the method to wheat cultivation in the Tarai of Nepal. Three aspects of sustainability were considered. First, the fertility of the land was found to have deteriorated owing to long-term practices incompatible with soil and drainage conditions. Three-quarters of the farmers had reduced land fertility and for one-third of them the wheat yield was at least 20% lower than for farmers who applied farmyard manure to every crop and adopted a rotation consistent with soil and drainage conditions. Secondly, the study found that it was possible to improve resource-use efficiency in wheat production to give 25% higher production at current levels, type, and quality of farm resources. Resource-use efficiency was significantly related to farm management practices such as crop stand, variety, disease, and land preparation quality, and socio-economic factors such as off-farm job opportunities, poor plot accessibility, and migration. Thirdly, the increasing population pressure on land, decreasing livestock number per cropped area, and diminishing fuel wood sources, significantly reduced farm-based nutrient cycling because farmyard manure had to be used for fuel. This had implications for the higher use of the fossil-based inputs in crop production.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Gladwin's^** main contention is that women provide most of the agricultural labor in sub-Saharan Africa and because much of this labor is oriented to food production for home consumption, the effects of structural adjustment programs on them and the children they work to feed are likely to be different than on men who produce crops for commercial and export production. Her specific hypothesis for Malawi is that the removal of the fertilizer subsidy affects women farmers more than men farmers because it reduces fertilizer use on local maize. As part of the structural adjustment program, a major purpose of removing the fertilizer subsidy is to reallocate resources from food production for domestic consumption to cash crop production for export. In Gladwin's analysis, men farmers produce hybrid maize and tobacco for export and women produce the subsistence food crop, local maize. Gladwin's main contention is probably correct. For the Malawi case, the presentation does not support the hypothesis because two of the major underlying assumptions are inappropriate and the evidence provided is inconclusive. This comment proceeds by discussing the two assumptions and corresponding evidence. The purpose of this comment is not to contradict the hypothesis, but to clarify the Malawi situation and to suggest that a different analytical approach is needed in that context.     

Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China

Farmers’ risk preferences play an important role in agricultural production decisions. This study characterizes risk preferences among farmers in Yongqiao and determines how these risk preferences are related to their choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. We find that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived changes to the local climate. The risk experiment result shows that the representative subject was risk averse, and women were more risk averse than men. The relationships between farmers’ risk preferences and different climate change adaptation choices were different. Farmers’ risk aversion was negatively and significantly related with adaptation strategies on planting new crop varieties and adopting new technology, but it had a significantly positive effect on purchasing weather index crop insurance. The results also indicate that the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income and perception of climate change impacts influence farmers’ adaptation decisions.