Seasonal Adjustment in a Market for Female Agricultural Workers

This article explores seasonal adjustment in the market for temporary agricultural labor. We estimate a model of participation allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity/selection bias using daily observations from Chilean panel data, and a model of daily earnings. Results indicate that seasonal wage variation is an important aspect of labor-market adjustment, contributing to a large change in labor force participation. The labor force participation rate of women is significantly more elastic to changes in the expected wage than is that for men. Nonetheless, we find evidence of substantial open unemployment during the slack season, especially for females, probably due to frictional and efficiency wage effects.     

工业智能化如何影响城乡收入差距——来自农业转移劳动力就业视角的解释

随着智能制造装备在各行业的不断普及,其对劳动力就业的影响逐渐加深。基于2001~2016年中国省级面板数据与流动人口监测数据,本研究从劳动力的就业行为与收入视角,采用动态空间面板模型评估了工业智能化对城乡收入差距的影响。结果表明,工业智能化显著扩大了城乡收入差距。在人口大规模跨区域流动背景下,这一效应具有明显的空间外溢性。进一步的检验与机制分析发现,工业智能化显著降低了农业转移人口的收入水平与工作稳定性,不利于农业转移人口稳定迁移,且这种影响存在明显的个体异质性。本研究的研究结论为政府持续加大农村教育投入与职业技能培训投入给予了实证支持,也为推进财政体制改革方向提供了启示。     

Wage and employment effects of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program

This article uses three waves of nationally representative household‐level panel data from Malawi to estimate how a large‐scale fertilizer subsidy program impacts the agricultural labor market, known as ganyu in that country. I find that when looking across the entire population of smallholders, receiving an additional 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer causes the average household to supply about three fewer days of ganyu. The fertilizer subsidy program also has a small positive effect on the probability that a household demands agricultural labor, with the results approaching statistical significance. In addition, a 10 kg increase in the average amount of subsidized fertilizer acquired per household in a community boosts the median agricultural wage rate by 1.4% in that community. The increase in wage rates translates to a US $1.40 per year increase in average household income in the years after Malawi's subsidy program was scaled up, and a US $1.86 per year increase in average household income for those who sold their labor before the subsidy program was scaled up. This finding suggests that households who sell their labor off farm may experience some small spillover benefit from the program in the form of higher agricultural wage rates.     

Contract farming: opportunity cost and trade‐offs

An important literature has established that participation in contract farming leads to higher incomes and has a number of other beneficial effects on the welfare of participating households. Yet no one has looked at the opportunity cost of and the various trade‐offs involved in participating in contract farming. I look at the relationship between participation in contract farming and income from (i) livestock, (ii) labor markets, (iii) nonfarm businesses, and (iv) agricultural sources other than livestock and contract farming and (v) unearned income. Using data from Madagascar, I find that participation in contract farming is associated with a 79% decrease in how much income per capita the average household derives from labor markets and a 47% decrease in how much income per capita it derives from nonfarm businesses, but also with a 51% increase in how much income per capita the average household derives from agricultural sources other than livestock and contract farming, possibly due to technological spillovers. Thus, even though contract farming has been shown to improve welfare in multiple ways in this context, it looks as though those gains come at the cost of an “agricultural involution” on the part of participating households, who seem to turn away from non‐agricultural activities. This has important implications for structural transformation narratives.     

How has microcredit supported agriculture? Evidence using panel data from Bangladesh

Improving agricultural productivity has received a greater attention in recent years amid concerns about rising food insecurity, population pressures, and climate change. Many believe that better access to institutional credit, spanning microcredit as well as commercial and agricultural banks, can help rural households smooth risks, and access inputs and other technology to modernize agriculture and improve farm/nonfarm linkages. We use recently augmented household panel data spanning over 20 years in Bangladesh to examine the effects of rural credit expansion (both microcredit and formal bank channels) on outcomes for agricultural households. We find that microcredit has benefited households with lower landownings, raising agricultural income from activities such as livestock rearing that require less land, as well as nonfarm income diversification for all households, but with the strongest effect for landless or near‐landless households. We do not find effects of microcredit on crop income, but do, however, find that reported supply‐side credit constraints significantly lower crop income. Borrowing by both men and women has contributed to nonfarm income growth for marginal farmers, but only men's borrowing has contributed to nonfarm income growth among higher landowning groups.     

The consequences of armed conflict on household composition

We evaluate the effect of large-scale violent conflict on the household composition of internally displaced persons using quantitative data from Colombia. We use a panel database of migrants constructed with the Sisben database (used to target social programmes in Colombia) for 2006–2009. We follow migrant mothers and children who belong to nuclear-biparental households before migration, and analyse the changes in the composition of their households after migration through multilevel multinomial logistic models. We do this separately for rural and urban migrants because they exhibit differences in household composition traditions and exposure to armed conflict. We find that urban and rural migrants have different migration strategies in both peaceful and armed conflict circumstances. We conclude that the household compositions of mothers and children are differently affected by violence, which might be caused by family separation; for example, rural children have a higher probability than mothers of belonging to households which are not nuclear biparental. We also find that exposure to violence can increase or decrease the effects of individual variables; for instance, in peaceful situations it is more likely that a household remains intact during migration when the number of children per adult increases; however, this effect is attenuated in violence situations.     

The dynamics of Chinese rural households' participation in labor markets

The work is devoted to the dynamics of labor market participation of Chinese rural households. Based on a theoretical farm household framework the choice between four distinct labor market participation states is empirically analyzed. Using household data over the period 1995–2002 from the province Zhejiang we apply a discrete time hazard approach to analyze households' labor market participation histories. In particular, we investigate the movements between autarky and participation in general and, more specifically, the shifts between part-time and full-time farming. Estimation results suggest significant duration dependence, more precisely, a decreasing risk of moving from one state to another with an increasing time a household occupies one of these states. Further, the likelihoods of starting any participation in labor markets and to start part-time farming are considerably higher than to end participation or to return to full-time farming. In addition, we find that labor market participation decisions are significantly related to several household and farm characteristics.     

Rural/Urban Welfare Program and Labor Force Participation

Nonmetro poor in the Midwest participate more in the labor force and less in welfare programs than metro poor. We formalize how household composition, capital, labor market conditions, and state-specific regulations define opportunity sets, then estimate a bivariate binomial probit model of work and program participation choices. An Oaxaca decomposition analysis is conducted to compare differences in characteristics to differences in behavior in explaining the two groups' choices. We find no behavioral basis for the difference in labor market participation. And while most of the lower Midwestern nonmetro welfare program participation is due to demographics, some is due to different life-cycle behavior.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

Cash crop choice and income dynamics in rural areas: evidence for post‐crisis Indonesia

In this article we investigate the factors affecting levels and growth of incomes in rural Indonesia following the crisis of 1997–1998. In particular, we investigate the relative roles of nonfarm incomes and productivity improvements achieved via changes in crops versus improvements on the same crops on income dynamics. Framing the article in the context of an optimal labor allocation model, relying on unique household panel data from Central Sulawesi, and using advanced panel econometric methods, we find that local innovations related to the adoption and intensification of new cash crop varieties, more specifically the shift from coffee to cocoa production, can explain a substantial part of the observed post‐crisis developments. Causal estimates of the effect of growing cocoa suggest that households were on average able to achieve about 14% higher income levels during the post‐crisis period compared to the planting of other crops, most notably coffee. Also, our results demonstrate the importance of engagement in nonfarm activities for household income growth. Comparative analyses using a nationally representative survey suggest that similar processes are at play in other parts of Indonesia.     

Impact of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on rural household income: An integrated estimation

The objective of this study is to identify the pathways of the potential impacts of the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) on household income and quantify these impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated analytic framework and using data collected from Wuqi county of Shaanxi for the period 2004–2010. This integrated analytic framework enables us to formulate a structural equation model for testing hypotheses regarding the direct and indirect impacts of the SLCP. It is found that the direct effect of the SLCP on household income is positive but very small and insignificant, suggesting that retiring cropland has, at least, not reduced income from farming. Moreover, the SLCP has had a much higher and even increasing indirect impact on household income through promoting labor transfer and relaxing liquidity constraints. Overall, the SLCP's total impact on household income ranged from 3% in 2004 to 9% in 2010 excluding the insignificant direct impact. The research and policy implications of our work are discussed.     

Microcredit Programme Participation and Household Food Security in Rural Bangladesh

Lack of access to credit prevents poor households in developing countries from diversifying into income‐generating activities that could safeguard them against unforeseen shocks and seasonality, leaving them susceptible to food deprivation, even when aggregate food supplies are adequate. Microcredit programmes help these households to access financial capital that could help improve their food security situation. We examine how microcredit affects different measures of food security; namely, household calorie availability, dietary diversity indicators and anthropometric status of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) and children under the age of 5 years. We find that microcredit programme participation increases calorie availability both at the intensive and extensive margins, but does not improve dietary diversity and only has mixed effects on the anthropometric measures. We also find that the effect of microcredit participation on food security may be non‐linear in which participation initially has either no effect on food security or may actually worsen it, before improving it in the longer run. Our results help to explain why existing short‐term evaluations of microcredit sometimes do not show any positive effects.     

农村劳动力大规模转移背景下的中国农村社会分层分析

基于一组大样本数据,本文尝试以家庭为单位,利用聚类分析的方法分析农业税改革后农村劳动力大规模转移背景下农村居民的社会阶层分化情况。研究发现,农村劳动力的大规模转移促使农村居民的职业和收入都发生了极大的变化,进而促使社会分层更一步深化;当前农村劳动力转移程度已经很高,大多数类型的家庭都可以分享劳动力转移的成果;农村社会已经形成了七类特征较为显著的群体,这些群体在社会中形成了一个近似金字塔形状的社会结构,传统农业家庭和年老贫困家庭成为消除贫困的主要目标。同时,在"人口红利"兑现后农村如何实现进一步发展,需要引起关注。     

Effect of off‐farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia

This article investigates how off‐farm income affects crop output market participation decisions and marketed surplus of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. A double‐hurdle model is estimated using three waves of panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for using a correlated random effect procedure and potential endogeneity of explanatory variables using a control function approach. The results show that off‐farm income has no significant influence on household crop output market participation. However, conditional on market participation, additional off‐farm earnings negatively affect the marketed surplus. This indicates that farmers use off‐farm earnings for consumption rather than for investment in agricultural production. Policy measures that promote rural investment may help increase returns to labor for land‐poor households participating in off‐farm work in the process of agricultural commercialization.     

Smallholder participation in vegetable exports and age‐disaggregated labor allocation in Northern Tanzania

Modern agricultural supply chains have been playing an increasingly important role in developing countries and have had significant effects on rural labor markets. This article analyses the effects of smallholder farmer participation in export vegetable supply chains in Northern Tanzania on both household hired labor demand and off‐farm labor supply, using an age‐disaggregated approach. In our sample, neither separability nor exogeneity of smallholder farmer participation in export supply chains can be rejected. Hence, we apply lognormal double‐hurdle models and find that participation in export supply chains positively affects households’ decision to hire labor from all age groups. We also find that it increases the unconditional overall level of hired labor demand, while the age‐disaggregated analysis shows that these effects mostly benefit rural youth. However, our sample does not allow us to establish statistically significant evidence of an effect on household off‐farm labor supply although the point estimates point to nonnegligible positive effect sizes.     

Life cycle models of women's body mass index and probability of being obese: Evidence from panel data

The objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod, finite‐life, life cycle models of household decisions on food, leisure, and health (body mass index [BMI] or being obese) and to estimate econometric versions of these models treating SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) participation as endogenous. A key insight from the economic models is that households allocate their wealth over the multiperiod life cycle to equalize the marginal utility of wealth in each period. The observations for this study are a balanced panel of over 1,600 women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 Cohort (NLSY79). We focus on the 20‐year period starting in 1986, when SNAP data first became available. Women of all ages are included in the study because at the beginning of adulthood women cannot accurately predict over their life cycle labor and marriage market and health shocks that can thrust them into an economic position where they would qualify for SNAP. New findings include that a woman's household SNAP participation with or without updating for last periods health status and higher local dairy product prices reduce significantly her BMI and probability of being obese.     

The impact of agricultural and household technologies on women: a conceptual and quantitative analysis in Burkina Faso

Agricultural technologies (new cultivars, inorganic fertilizers, soil-and water-conservation techniques) in Sub-Saharan Africa have been primarily introduced to male farmers by male-dominated extension services on the family plots. These yield-increasing, input-intensive technologies increase the demand for farm labor. So, not only do men obtain most of the direct benefits from the introduction of technology but this labor-intensive technology also increases the demands on women's time for additional labor. This raises the question: Are the combined effects of agricultural technologies beneficial or detrimental to women? We first develop a labor-market model that examines the impact of agricultural and household technologies on labor allocation and income determination within the household. We then discuss the important issue of how household labor-allocation decisions and division of income are made within the family in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a programming model to estimate the effects of these technologies on household incomes and the income of women. The results indicate that the impact of agricultural technologies depends on the type of decision-making prevailing in the household. In contrast, household technologies increase the welfare of women regardless of the type of decision-making. However, with bargaining behavior, agricultural technologies do benefit women and there is some empirical support for this type of household behavior in Sub-Saharan African households.     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.     

Welfare impacts of technological change on women in southern Mali

It has often been hypothesized that new agricultural technologies could have an adverse impact on women because additional labor required of them reduces the time spent and therefore income earned from private-field activities. This study shows that the expansion of cotton cultivation on the household communal fields in southern Mali associated with the introduction of new technologies results in increased payments to women for their increased labor on the cotton fields. Unfortunately, these payments are small compared to the loss of revenue from private-plot production. Thus, the net effect of the expansion of household cotton cultivation is a reduction in incomes of women who cultivate private plots. Short-run policy implications of this study are that improving women's income requires concern with their private - plot earnings. For example, profitability of the private-field crops could be increased with higher input use. In the long run, as land becomes even more constrained, emphasis needs to be placed on institutional changes to increase women's bargaining power so that they obtain larger shares of the new income streams resulting from technological change on the communal field. Institutional changes already occurring in the region, with the apparent objective of increasing women's (and non-household head men's) bargaining power, include organized work teams and the movement toward smaller, nuclear families.     

Pathways out of poverty in lagging regions: evidence from rural western China

How to reduce poverty in lagging regions remains much debated and underserved with solid empirical evidence. This study illustrates an empirical methodology to analyze the pathways households followed out of poverty and to explore their potential in the future using 2000–2004 rural household panel data from two lagging provinces of China, Inner Mongolia and Gansu. It finds that rising labor productivity in agriculture has been key in understanding poverty reduction in rural lagging areas of these provinces and that it still holds much promise. Circular migration has also been important in Gansu, though less so in Inner Mongolia. On average, rural diversification has not proven to contribute much to poverty reduction and income transfers and agricultural tax abolishment have only helped at the margin. The findings from these two case studies highlight that the scope for reducing poverty in rural lagging regions can still be substantial in agriculture, also when nonagriculture drives national growth.