教育工资升水率的微观计量分析

文章运用现代微观计量经济学的分析方法,估计了我国大学教育的工资升水率。文章在研究中从选择偏差及异质性着手,论证了OLS与传统IV估计量的非一致性,进而采用了平均政策效应以弥补两者缺陷。研究结果表明,我国劳动力市场上大学教育的工资升水率已经比20世纪80年代与90年代有显著提高。     

Unemployment and Migration: Does Moving Help?

The migration behaviour of the unemployed in Finland is analysed in terms of the causal effect of moving on individual employment status. In 1994, 17 percent of the labour force was unemployed and the unemployment rate exhibited a very slow decline in 1994–1996. Over half of those who were unemployed at the end of 1994 were still unemployed two years later. The propensity to find a job is somewhat greater among migrants. However, the positive effect of moving diminishes once other personal characteristics are accounted for. Moreover, when controlling for endogenous migrant selectivity, an insignificant or even negative effect on employment status emerges. This indicates that the relatively better "quality" of the migrants (e.g. age, education, human capital and unobserved ability), rather than the act of moving itself, causes an improvement in re–employability. Hence, migration alone may not be a very effective mechanism for alleviating individual unemployment.
JEL classification : J 61; J 64     

对影响我国大学生创业倾向的因素分析

大学生自主创业在20世纪末的世界各国已经成为一种趋势。近年来,在我国由于社会竞争的日益加剧和就业形势的日益严峻,尤其是20世纪90年代大学扩招的规模日益加大,创业正在成为越来越多的大学生在被动就业之外的另一项重要选择。大学生的创业倾向越来越明显,这说明中市场经济发展的日益成熟和大学生就业理念的转变。立足于对培养大学生创业倾向的建立以及对其影响因素的分析,探讨了大学生个体因素及家庭、学校、政府等各种不同的外部环境对当代大学生创业倾向的影响,力求通过对其提出合理化建议,以培养和促进大学生创业倾向的建立和不断发展。     

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

中国人口迁移流动现状及发展趋势

根据第五次人口普查,我国人口迁移率达9.74%,人口流动率达12.33%。人口的迁移流动,以经济因素为主,以女性为多,且迁移流动者的文化程度普遍高于其他人口。由于城乡经济社会发展的差异,会有越来越多的人口向城市迁移。按城市化发展规律,城镇化发展需要的新增人口数量,低于农村人口外出迁移数,农村人口迁移对城市发展带来很大压力。为了实现人口顺利迁移流动,需要相应的配套策略。     

On the simultaneity bias in the relationship between risk attitudes,entry into entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial survival

We consider the simultaneity bias when examining the effect of individual risk attitudes on entrepreneurship. We demonstrate that entry into self-employment is related to changes in risk attitudes. We further show that these changes are correlated with the probability to remain in entrepreneurship.     

农村—城市移民率的变动与中国城市化的关系

在我国的经济发展过程中,城市化水平不断提高,并伴随有大量的农村人口向城市转移.本文通过构建一个理论分析框架,在城市化水平与农村—城市移民率的变动之间建立一个模型,发现在农村—城市移民率和城市化水平、农村人口与总人口自然增长率之间存在着联系.通过城市化数据分析我国的农村—城市移民率的变化情况,并应用城市化的logistic方程对城市化水平以及农村—城市移民率进行进一步的估计,最后预测它们未来的发展趋势.     

FDI,taxes and agglomeration economies in the EU15

This article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of tax differentials and agglomeration economies on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The article departs from most previous work on FDI and tax competition in a number of ways. First, it incorporates several measures of agglomeration in order to investigate whether agglomeration economies mitigate the downward spiral in tax rates. As the strength of agglomeration economies may vary with the degree of integration, we use a panel of bilateral FDI flows for a highly integrated region including countries with similar economic structure – the EU15 – from 1986 to 2004. Second, the empirical analysis explicitly deals with the problem of selection bias by using the Heckman sample selection approach. Also, by focusing on the EU15, we are able to provide additional information on the determinants of FDI between similar, higher-income countries. The empirical analysis provides some evidence of corporate marginal effective tax rates having an impact on FDI. This result, however, is sensitive to the inclusion of agglomeration economies. In particular, we find both Marshall types of technological externalities and overall concentration of economic activity to have an influence on FDI flows and, moreover, mitigating the negative impact of taxes.     

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.     

中国农村劳动力迁移影响因素研究——基于Probit模型的实证分析

农村劳动力迁移对于缩小城乡收入差距、促进中国经济增长具有非常重要的作用。本文通过中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据库的成人调查问卷2004和2006年的数据,采用probit模型定量分析了中国农村劳动力迁移的影响因素。本文的研究发现:婚姻状况、健康、娱乐偏好等变量对农村劳动力的迁移决策有比较显著的影响,而当前收入的影响并不明显。此外,家庭负担并不是迁移决策的影响因素,并且已婚女性劳动力倾向于和丈夫共同迁移,以上两个因素共同导致了农村的空巢老人问题。最后,促进农村劳动力迁移的最有效方法是提高农村劳动力的受教育水平,其中大学及大专学校教育最有效,其次是职业和技术学校教育。     

中国贫困地区的空巢村庄:陕北农村迁移的案例研究

中国的区域发展不平衡和收入分配不平均加快了农村向城市的迁移速度,在偏远山村出现了很多空巢村庄。本文利用第二次全国农业统计调查中陕北两个农村地区的数据,分析了我国贫困地区农村人口迁移状况,统计分析和多元回归分析的结果揭示了我国贫困地区人口迁移的模式、原因和迁移的后果。本文主要结论如下:在同一地区较贫困的家庭比其他地区的人更可能发生迁移;家庭的迁移行为与劳动力的迁移行为是截然不同的。根据分析本文提出了作为城乡一体化过程中的农村移民的国家战略。     

Modeling the dependence structure between default risk premium,equity return volatility and the jump risk: Evidence from a financial crisis

This paper investigates the dependence structure between default risk premium, equity return volatility and jump risk in the equity market before and during the subprime crisis. Using iTraxx CDS index spreads from Japanese and Australian markets, the paper models the different relationships that can exist in different ranges of behavior. We consider several Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures, namely, Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, AMH and Joe copulas. Although the dramatic change in the levels of the iTraxx CDS index, we find strong evidence that the dependence structure between CDS and stock market conditions is asymmetric and orienting toward the upper side. In addition, we find that the Japanese CDS market is more sensitive to the stock return volatility than the jump risk and the magnitude of this sensitivity is related to the market circumstances. However, Australian CDS market is more sensitive to the jump risk than stock return volatility before and during the financial crisis. This result has important implications for both global financial stability and default risk management. Specifically, the heterogeneity of markets, coupled with the diversity in the risk exposures cause the default risk premium and equity markets to exhibit different levels of sensitivity.     

Examining the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume: new evidence from an emerging economy

Using daily stock return data for individual stocks from an emerging economy, this article examines the relationship between return volatility and trading volume under the theoretical postulate of the mixture of distributions hypothesis. The results suggest that the contemporaneous trading volume as a proxy for latent information arrival to the market did not contribute to the removal of significant ARCH or Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects that are found in stocks at the first stage of the investigation. The same holds for the lagged volume except for one case. This, perhaps, suggests that the trading volume (contemporaneous or lagged) is not adequately conveying information to induce traders’ views of the desirability of trade and, therefore, points to the need for searching for other micro and macro variables to be used as potential proxy for information arrival to the stock market of the emerging economy.     

2006年全球创业概述与理论分析

2006年全球创业概况是：中等收入发展中国家比高收入发达国家呈现出更为旺盛的创业精神,高收入发达国家在早期创业转化率方面以及在产业领域中创业的表现更为出色;男性比女性更富有创业的主动性;中国与印度的创业活动得到进一步发展,创业环境得到改善;高收入发达国家在创业者的教育程度方面仍然保持优势。因此,保持早期创业的发生率优势,鼓励妇女参与创业,提高创业者教育水平,改善创业环境,促进早期创业转化以及改善产业领域中创业的表现是中等收入发展中国家应该采用的措施。     

转型经济中劳动力迁移对非农就业的影响——中国农户调查数据的分析

基于2009年中国农村金融调查数据,本文建立多项Logit就业选择模型,识别劳动力迁移对返乡农民工非农就业的影响,并利用2008年9月之后返乡农民工样本考察劳动力迁移的潜在内生性及可能导致的估计偏误.本文发现:由于内生性的存在,导致劳动力迁移效应被高估约8.5个百分点.相比从未迁移的农村劳动力,劳动力迁移促使农民工返乡后更多地受雇于非农工作,而对自主创业的影响不大.在中国转型经济中,农村剩余劳动力向城市迁移后提高了非农产业技能,为农村非农产业的发展积累了人力资本.返乡农民工具有更多的金融资本和人力资本,将在中国独特的城市化建设中起到重要作用.     

Capitalism and democracy in the 21st Century: from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy*

 This paper explains how and why the developed countries are undergoing a fundamental shift away from a managed economy and towards an entrepreneurial economy. This shift is shaping the development of western capitalism and has triggered a shift in government policies away from constraining the freedom of business to contract through regulation, public ownership and antitrust towards a new set of enabling policies which foster the creation and commercialization of new knowledge. The empirical evidence from a cross-section of countries over time suggests that those countries that have experienced a greater shift from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy have had lower levels of unemployment.     

Factor accumulation in Canada before the Great Depression: investment and immigration dynamics

The links between economic growth, investment and migration are explored to determine if one of the mobile factors of production, capital or labor, led the other to accumulate in Canada during several boom episodes over 1870 to 1927. The results of an econometric analysis, using time series techniques, suggest that rising per capita incomes led to increased domestic investment and net immigration, and that foreigners joined the investment booms after domestic residents invested in Canadian development first.

Work incentives and other effects of the transition to social assistance in the transition economies: Evidence from Bulgaria

The compensation levels, duration structure and means-tested aspects of the income support system for the unemployed in Bulgaria are considered. The available evidence points to the emergence of long term unemployment as a major problem, to a system of social assistance (SA) which is not overly generous and to growing poverty. Nevertheless, econometric analysis using micro data indicates that disincentives for job search exist for SA recipients. In the context of an acute fiscal crisis, systemic efficiency might be improved by restricting access to some benefits, by some changes in scaling, in moves towards targeted contributions and in improvements in administrative capacity.     

The propensity to return: Theory and evidence for the Italian brain drain

Return migration is the positive counterpart of the brain drain. The effects of the brain drain in Italy could be negative: this paper shows that highly skilled migrants decide not to return to their native country.