女企业家创业意向缓冲因素研究

女企业家在知识经济时代,由于不再如在传统工业经济和农业经济时代靠体力决定经济地位,而是和男性第一次站在平等的起跑线上开始她们的创业,使得她们的地位越来越重要。但一个不容忽视的现实是拥有同样自身条件的男性和女性,在同样面临创业机会时,女性真正投入创业的比例远远低于男性,本研究用实证的方式,采用相关分析、方差分析、探索性因素分析、缓冲作用检验等统计方法,对351位女性创业者进行问卷调查的基础上提出了家庭承诺和性别认同是影响女性创业意向的缓冲因素,本研究为如何激发女性创业提供了实证基础。     

Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

In this study we analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing not only on typical individual and household determinants, but also on post-conflict specific influences. We investigate cross-sectional survey data collected over the period from 2002 to 2010. Our findings indicate that higher intentions for emigration are indeed linked to the typical individual and household conditions: the young, educated and low-family income respondents report the highest intentions to emigrate. In addition, the post-conflict environment characterised by economic and political instability, as well as by conflict and post-conflict related migration, increases these intentions further, both independently and in different combinations. Although determinants such as employment status, household income and perception of economic development are relevant, their effect is of second-order importance. This contradicts the conventional thinking that economic factors are the main driving forces of emigration intentions. We provide evidence that the conflict and post-conflict related migration experiences, and the political situation, may surpass individual and societal economic influences in importance.     

Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills

In this paper we show that highly skilled clandestine migrants are more likely to return home than migrants with low or no skills when illegality causes "skill waste", i.e. when illegality reduces the rate of return of individual capabilities (i.e. skills and human capital) in the country of destination. In a simple life-cycle framework, illegality is modeled as a tax on skills that reduces the opportunity cost of returning home particularly for the highly skilled. This proposition is tested on a sample of apprehended immigrants that unlawfully crossed the Italian borders in 2003. The estimation confirms that the intention to return to the home country is more likely for highly skilled illegal immigrants. The empirical results of this paper attenuate the common wisdom on the return decisions of legal migrants, according to which low-skill individuals are more likely to go back home (mainly because of negative self-selection).     

返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素分析——基于5省465户返乡农民工家庭的调查数据

农民工返乡创业对乡村振兴战略和农村脱贫战略的实施都具有重要影响,对返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素及城际差异进行研究有助于为各地区创业政策的精准制定和创业活动的精准开展指导提供参考。文章基于5个省6个城市返乡农民工家庭的样本数据,运用最优尺度回归和多水平模型实证分析了返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素与城际差异。研究发现:(1)出生年代、受教育程度、家庭年总收入3个微观变量和居住地教育环境、居住地居住条件、地区消费水平、地区房价水平4个宏观变量对返乡农民工创业选择具有显著影响。(2)返乡农民工创业选择存在城际差异,受教育程度、居住地教育环境、地区消费水平和地区房价水平对城市间返乡农民工创业选择的变异聚集性具有影响。根据地区特征,有针对性地加强针对农民工的技能培训和返乡创业支持体系建设有助于促进农民工返乡创业。     

BRETTON WOODS - ORIGINAL INTENTIONS AND CURRENT PROBLEMS

The Bretton Woods institutions have been subjected to a variety of criticisms in recent years and have been faced with severe problems in carrying out their objectives. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have not performed in accordance with the original intentions of their founders. As shown in this article, this is in large measure because the world economic environment has been quite different from that envisaged by the participants in the Bretton Woods conference. Many of the original intended functions for these institutions are no longer relevant. This article examines the current problems facing the IMF and World Bank, with special attention to how they are related to the original intentions. For example, in recent years, a major problem has been the financial crises of member countries that have liberalized their economies in line with trends toward globalization. These crises have resulted in demands on the IMF and World Bank for financial assistance for purposes other than those for which their assistance was originally designed. Other problems of the two institutions include providing assistance to the world's poorest countries that have made virtually no development progress in recent years, and assisting the former communist countries in transition to market economies. The author gives his personal views on how these and other problems of the IMF and World Bank should be dealt with.     

大学生创业意愿影响因素研究——模型与实证

通过对已有创业意愿影响因素相关理论及模型的梳理与总结,构建我国大学生创业意愿影响因素模型。实证研究发现,创业态度对创业意愿的直接影响较大,而背景因素、感知行为控制力对创业意愿直接影响较小,但它们还可以通过影响创业态度对创业意愿产生间接影响。创业政策对创业意愿没有直接影响。     

创业环境对大学生创业意愿的影响:兼对GEM模型的再检验

基于国内外创业环境和创业意愿的现有研究,构建了基于GEM模型的中国国情下大学生创业环境模型。利用7个城市高校在校大学生进行问卷调查所得的数据,检验了大学生创业环境模型的合理性以及创业环境对大学生创业意愿的影响。研究结论如下:基于GEM模型的大学生创业环境模型能够比较科学地反映中国国情下大学生的创业环境,改善创业环境有助于增强大学生的创业意愿;9个创业环境要素对大学生创业意愿的影响程度不尽相同,即金融支持、政府政策、教育和培训、研发转移和国内市场开放程度对大学生创业意愿的影响显著,政府项目和文化及社会规范对大学生创业意愿具有一定影响,而商业环境和专业基础设施、有形基础设施的可得性对大学生创业意愿的影响不显著。     

Redistribution of Economic Resources due to Conflict: The Maoist Uprising in Nepal

Nepal has seen a significant reduction in poverty over the period 1995–2010 which encompasses the decade-long Maoist-led civil war. So was the post-conflict provision of economic resources to districts related to their involvement in promoting the Maoist cause? We tackle this question combining theory and empirics. Our model predicts that poorer districts are more likely to support the Maoists and in return they get promised economic gains conditional on the Maoists prevailing post-conflict. Combining data on conflict with consumption expenditure data from the Nepal Living Standards Survey and data on foreign aid, we test these predictions. Our panel data estimates and our cross-sectional analysis consistently find strong support for our hypotheses. These are confirmed by the IV analysis that we perform at the panel level.     

风险投资介入与创业企业国际化——基于我国高科技上市公司的实证研究

风险投资对创业企业的成长具有举足轻重的作用;那么,风险投资的介入对其国际化会带来怎样的影响呢?文章基于资源基础观、代理理论和信号传递理论,分析了风险投资影响创业企业国际化的内在作用机理以及风险投资机构特质与创业企业国际化之间的关系,并以我国300家高科技上市公司的非平衡面板数据为样本进行了实证检验.结论表明:(1)风险投资介入不仅能够开拓创业企业国际化的广度,而且也能加强创业企业国际化的深度;(2)不同特质的风险投资机构对创业企业国际化的影响存在差异,有外资背景的、行业专长高的或采取联合投资策略的风险投资机构有利于创业企业在海外市场上的拓展和渗透.文章不仅拓展了现有的企业国际化理论,而且对创业企业的国际化实践也具有借鉴意义.     

Migration between home country and diaspora: an economic analysis

"This paper investigates the distribution of a population group between a home country and diaspora, given sequential decision-making regarding migration at the individual level. The home country is attractive to the members of the group, yet their presence there requires a fixed amount of public spending (e.g., on defense). The per-capita tax burden depends then on the size of the domestic population, reflecting a case of ?fiscal externality'. This results in an inefficient distribution of the group between the home country and the diaspora. Encouraging immigration to the home country is an interest not only of those individuals who are currently in the home country but also of those residing in the diaspora. However, only when the burden of public spending in the home country is large enough do the latter volunteer to bear part of it. Even then, in general, this part is smaller than socially optimal."     

Financial Returnees as New Agents in East Asia: The Case of Korean Private Equity Funds

Although the standing of Anglo-American capitalism has been badly damaged by the global economic crisis, the return of the state in emerging markets is by no means assured. Over the past decade, financial processes originating in Anglo-American markets, such as derivatives, hedge funds and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), have made quiet headway in emerging markets. One of the transmission channels is financial returnees, defined as elites returning to domestic finance from either global finance abroad or from foreign financial institutions in their home countries. Many financial returnees pursue business agendas that parallel the Anglo-American model, while portraying themselves as local for domestic constituencies. These actions are now especially visible in the rise of private equity funds in emerging markets. This article defines the concept of a financial returnee and charts the impact of these individuals in importing the Anglo-American private equity model to Asia with Korea as the primary case study. Once foreign-controlled, the private equity industry in Korea is now domestically-run and financial returnees have been integral in this sector's short but important history.     

Profitability of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

This article uses data for 418 banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe between 1993 and 2004 to analyse the impact of the mode of foreign bank entry and of the parent institutions’ characteristics on bank profitability. The results show that foreign banks are affected both less and differently by domestic economic conditions, but do react to the health of the parent banks and the economic situations in their home countries. Their mode of entry is important: profits of banks entering via greenfield investment exhibit a complementary relationship with their parent banks, whereas profits of banks acquiring domestic institutions are negatively related to the opportunity costs in their home markets.     

成长型思维与创业行为倾向研究——基于创业失败恐惧的多维度调节作用

为探究思维模式对潜在创业者认知能力的影响,帮助其提升实施创业行为的可能性,解决潜在创业者创业时的犹豫,将内隐理论引入创业领域,结合社会认知理论,检验成长型思维、创业自我效能感与创业行为倾向之间的作用机制,并将创业失败恐惧作为多维度调节变量进行研究。以辽宁省潜在创业者作为调研对象,利用SPSS24.0软件对171份有效样本进行数据处理与分析。结果发现：成长型思维对创业行为倾向具有正向影响;创业自我效能感在成长型思维与创业行为倾向之间起部分中介作用;对商业理念的恐惧和对社会尊严威胁的恐惧负向调节创业自我效能感与创业行为倾向之间的关系。研究结论有助于个体正确认识并克服失败恐惧,激发创业欲望,推进“大众创业,万众创新”深入发展。     

Homesickness and repeated migration

This paper presents a dynamic structural model of migration that is designed to help explain the migration behaviour of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US. Its key feature – which I call ‘homesickness’ – is a duration-dependent disutility from living abroad that keeps increasing while a migrant stays abroad and can be reset to zero only by returning to their home country. I estimate the model using data primarily from the Mexican Migration Project Survey and find that the model is capable of explaining, among other things, the fact that: (i) a non-negligible number of Mexican immigrants in the US return home after earning very little; (ii) these ‘unsuccessful’ immigrants are more likely to re-enter the US at a later date; and (iii) such ‘unsuccessful’ returns are more prevalent among immigrants who left their wives behind in Mexico. These facts are not easily reconciled with existing models of migration that do not feature homesickness.     

Banking Structure,Marketization, and Small Business Development: Regional Evidence From China

This paper provides an empirical examination of the regional banking structures in China and their effects on entrepreneurial activity. Using a panel of 27 provinces and four directly controlled municipalities from 1997 through 2008, we find that the presence of large banking institutions negatively correlates with small business development in local markets and that this negative relation is driven mainly by participation of large banks in the short‐term loan market. Rural banking institutions, in contrast, are found to promote regional entrepreneurial activity. Moreover, large state banks facilitate small business development in concentrated markets. When we interact measures of banking financing by state banks and rural banking institutions with a set of provincial‐level marketization indexes, we find that extensive marketization, factor market development and sophistication of legal frameworks mitigate the negative effect of large state banks on small business development. In provinces with advanced market development, efficient factor markets and favourable institutional settings, the positive effect of rural banking institutions on small business growth is even stronger.     

企业家精神对海归人员创业机会识别影响因素研究

中国面临海归创业大潮,海归创业有助于推动中国高科技产业和新经济发展。中国市场充满挑战与机遇,识别并开发创业机会是海归人员在华创业活动的初始阶段和关键环节。以江苏省120位海归创业者为研究对象,探究企业家精神对创业机会识别的影响,并分析关系网络与创业资源在上述关系中所起的中介作用和调节作用。结果发现,企业家精神对海归人员创业机会识别具有积极影响;海归弱关系在上述关系中起部分中介作用,强关系的中介效应不显著;创业资源越丰富,企业家精神对创业机会识别的作用越大。     

Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.     

Migration and political institutions: Other side of the hill

The present paper examines the effect of migrant population on political institutions in their host societies using data from the local elections in Hong Kong. The share of the population that has migrated from mainland China is found to have a positive effect on the pro-government votes in local elections. This effect continues to exist after demographic characteristics are controlled. Further investigation suggests that the effect of migrant population on voting patterns varies across periods of migration to Hong Kong. These findings contribute to the published literature in two ways. First, they provide evidence that the effects of migration on political development are two-way. Migration not only influences the political institutions in migrants’ home countries, but also shapes the political institutions in their host regions. Second, they also pave the way for future research on why and how periods of migration influence migrant populations’ voting patterns in their host regions.     

创业失败态度、创业失败学习与连续创业

围绕创业失败学习,分析创业失败态度对创业失败学习的影响及创业者的控制点对两者关系的调节作用,并根据经验学习理论,探究创业失败学习对连续创业意向和连续创业绩效的不同影响.对有过创业失败经历的创业者进行问卷调查,基于问卷数据进行实证分析,结果表明:创业者的创业失败态度与创业失败学习有显著的正向关系,创业者的控制点对两者关系的调节作用不显著;创业失败学习对连续创业意向的影响不显著,但能够显著提高连续创业绩效.研究结论丰富了对创业失败学习的前因和结果变量的研究,有助于加深对创业失败学习价值的认识.     

城市流动人口居留意愿研究——基于上海、苏州等地的调查分析

以上海市普陀区、苏州市流动人口问卷调查数据为依据,采用统计分析方法,对流动人口居留意愿的特点、流动人口居留意愿的影响因素以及户籍制度对流动人口居留意愿的影响进行了研究。经济因素对流动人口的居留意愿并没有显著的影响,社会因素的影响更加显著,其中社会融合因素与居留意愿正相关,家乡联系与居留意愿呈负相关关系;从制度因素来看,户籍制度对流动人口居留意愿有一定的影响,表现在它改变了一部分流动人口的居留意愿。