Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

The growth effect of trade openness on African countries: Evidence from using an instrumental variable panel smooth transition model

This paper assesses the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Africa by accounting for the heterogeneity of African countries. In addition, the paper contributes to the literature on trade openness and economic growth nexus by applying the instrumental variable panel smooth transition regression, a methodology that accounts for nonlinearity and endogeneity in the relationship between the two variables. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that the investment ratio is a channel through which trade openness affects economic growth in the African continent. In addition, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth varies according to the degree of a country's development in Africa. The study finds a negative relationship between openness and growth in low-income countries. Conversely, for upper-income countries, the coefficients of trade indicators are positive and statistically significant. The results indicate that African countries are not homogeneous, especially concerning trade openness and economic growth nexus.     

The impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate

In this article, we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate. We use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trade agreements and the average tariff rate in the neighbours’ countries as instrumental variables to diminish the endogeneity problem of the tariff rate. We find that trade openness increases the participation rate which is economically and statistically significant. The results show that this correlation is robust under controlling for different variables and using various specifications. We find that 10 percentage point increase in tariff rate lowers the participation rate by 4–6 percentage point and this relationship is more severe in the long run. Finally, we show that changes in labour force population accounts for about 27% of changes in the unemployment rate following a trade liberalization.     

Effective factor endowments, trade openness and income distribution in China

This paper studies the empirical relationship among factor endowment, trade openness and individual income distribution. Using panel data, we show that factor endowment characters, to some extent, explains income gap in China. First, land and Capital intensive provinces have a more equal income distribution while human capital and labor-intensive provinces have a less equal income distribution. Second, Trade openness has a significant effect on China’s income distribution; the interaction between a special endowment and openness has different effect on income distribution; we also show that FDI, economy development, unemployment and reform have considerable negative effect on income distribution. Our results are robust to various kinds of test.     

Margin rate and the cycle: the role of trade openness

Using three datasets of French manufacturing firms, this article studies the role of trade openness, in relation with the cycle, as a determinant of company margin rate. Margin rates increase as capacity utilization tightens (and vice versa), reflecting the procyclicality of margin rates. However, high import rates are limiting this procyclicality: when capacities are tight, domestic producers may not be able to serve demand, but foreign producers may substitute for them if they are already present on the market as reflected by the level of import rates.     

经济增长与中拉贸易合作

近年来，中国和拉关地区的贸易额迅速增长。本文介绍了中拉贸易现状及贸易基础，重点对经济增长和中拉贸易合作之间的关系进行了分析。     

Foreign trade, environmental protection and sustainable economic growth in China

Since the 1990s, China has exhibited growth in both foreign trade and the economy. Promoting environmental protection and sustainable economic growth are main concerns in the academic profession in the country. This paper makes an empirical analysis of trade and environmental pollution, and discusses the inherent relationship between foreign trade, environmental protection and sustainable economic growth. In addition, this paper makes several policy suggestions with a view to adjusting trade structure, enforcing environmental protection and promoting sustainable economic growth in China.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

The impact of trade openness on technical efficiency in the agricultural sector of the European Union

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of trade openness on technical efficiency of the European Union’s (EU) agricultural sector. There are no systematic theories linking trade policy to technical efficiency; hence, the relation between trade liberalization and technical efficiency is fundamentally ambiguous. Stochastic frontier analysis is used to model the relationship between EU’s production resources and agricultural output, as well as the importance of trade openness on technical efficiency of a country. The data for 16 of the 28 EU members were available for the period 1980–2007 including land, capital, fertilizer, labour, agricultural GDP, foreign direct investments (FDI), exports and import data. Results indicate that trade openness has an immediate, negative impact on efficiency in the EU agricultural sector. Over time, however, trade openness does increase efficiency. The FDI outflows increase efficiency. This suggests that an initial reduction in capital supply forces EU nations to utilize other factor inputs more efficiently. However, there is the unexamined potential that over time the depletion of capital results in a decrease in efficiency. Finally, formerly communist member-countries of the EU are found to have the lowest technical efficiency scores whereas Southern European nations have the highest efficiency.     

Impact of China on trade in electronic products

Using 6-digit product-level data of exports in electronics, this paper finds robust evidence that China's exports adversely affect both the intensive export margin and the extensive export margin of its competitors for the 1992–2018 period. The displacement effects of China's exports on the intensive margin apply especially for the group of intermediate and capital electronic goods and are much more robust and significantly larger in magnitude than the displacement effects found in other studies using aggregated trade data. Finally, we find that China's displacement effect is increasing in China's advantage relative to its competitors in terms of human capital index and internet access of its population.     

The desirable form of openness for Indian agriculture

How open should a developing country's agriculture be to theworld economy? What are the medium-term effects for growth andincome distribution of 'close' integration with world agriculturalmarkets through trade liberalisation and domestic reform? Andwhat are the implications of the 'strategic' integration ofagriculture with world markets? Using a dynamic computable generalequilibrium model, these questions are addressed for the Indianeconomy. The simulation results show that the costs of 'close'integration are large and unevenly distributed, irrespectiveof whether the agricultural reform is immediate or gradual.One form of 'strategic' integration is operationalised thatyields more desirable outcomes in terms of growth and incomedistribution. The paper also compares the effectiveness of thetwo policy regimes in coping with an adverse supply shock.     

Free trade and economic growth: The role of talent diversity

To analyse the impact of the diversity of talent distribution on the equilibrium growth rate, this paper develops an equilibrium growth model with heterogeneous labor. We show that the growth effect after free trade depends on the diversity effect and the trade effect. In addition, we prove that if talent diversity is great enough then opening trade will stimulate economic growth. In contrast, if talent diversity is small enough then trade openness is detrimental to economic growth.     

Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy

This article theoretically analyses optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy. The benchmark model explains both key business cycle moments and asset prices of a representative emerging economy, and the corresponding deterministic version of the model finds no gain by deviating from the free input trade policy. The main findings are as follows: (1) it is optimal for the government to subsidize imported intermediate inputs in the benchmark model and (2) the result is robust to various shocks, various key structural parameters and various preference specifications.     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China

There is agreement in the literature on economic growth concerning the transitory effects of capital accumulation on the process of economic development. However, controversy arises if this effect is permanent. In this sense, the key point is the embodied technological progress and whether supply factors predominate among the determinants of capital accumulation. Only in this case should expect long-run effects of capital accumulation on economic growth. Inspired by this idea, I focus the study on two elements accounting for economic development—equipment investment and productive infrastructure and I also analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. The results indicate that equipment investment and infrastructures have played a significant role in accounting for long-run growth in China. However, I do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment. In addition, I find that foreign trade has stimulated output and equipment investment in the long run. Finally, it is found that innovation activities encourage equipment investment in the long run.     

How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism

This paper reconsiders the popular result that the lower is the probability of reelection, the greater is the incentive of incumbent politicians to choose short-sighted, inefficient policies. The set-up is a general equilibrium model of economic growth, in which fiscal policy is endogenously chosen under electoral uncertainty. Political parties can value possible economic benefits differently depending on whether they are in or out of power, and—by contrast with the literature—the relevant preference coefficient is a choice variable rather than an exogenous taste parameter. The main result is that, when political parties choose both economic policy instruments and preference coefficients, the fundamental reason for short-sighted policy is the extra rents from being in power per se.     

Comment on “On the openness to trade as a determinant of the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution”

This paper provides a comment on the analysis of the link between an economy’s openness to trade and its macroeconomic elasticity of substitution (ES) presented in Saam [Saam, M., 2008. Openness to trade as a determinant of the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution. Journal of Macroeconomics 30, 691–702.].