Challenges and opportunities for pre-crisis emergency risk communication: lessons learned from the earthquake community

Abstract

Prior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle.     

自媒体在食品行业危机管理中的传播策略

自媒体作为一种新型媒体,打破了传统媒体的垄断局面,更多公众可以参与事件的监控与言论的发表。食品是人类的安身之本,然而仅2013年上半年就爆发多件食品危机事件,引发消费者对食品行业的信任危机。自媒体的应用是一把双刃剑,本文研究了自媒体的特征和传播机制,分析了食品行业危机的特点,然后结合施拉姆的传播过程提出了自媒体的传播策略,认为在自媒体时代,食品行业的危机管理应从传播主体、传播信息内容、信息反馈、传播媒体以及传播的原则五方面加强管理。     

Won’t we scare them? The impact of communicating uncontrollable risks on the public’s perception

Authorities often refrain from communicating risks out of fear to arouse negative feelings amongst the public and to create negative reactions in terms of the public’s behavior. This study examines the impact of communicating risks on the public’s feelings and behavioral intentions regarding an uncontrollable risk related to fresh produce. In addition, the impact of risk communication is compared between a situation in which the risk either does or does not develop into a crisis, by means of a 2 (risk communication vs. no risk communication)?×?2 (crisis communication vs. no crisis communication) between-subjects factorial design. The results show that communicating risks has a positive impact on the behavioral intention to keep on eating fresh produce compared to when no risk communication was provided, as it reduces negative feelings amongst the public. In addition, the findings illustrate that when a risk develops into an actual crisis, prior risk communication can result in greater trust in the government and reduce perceived government responsibility for the crisis when the crisis hits. Based on these findings, it can be suggested that risk communication is an effective tool for authorities in preparing the public for potential crises. The findings indicate that communicating risks does not raise negative reactions amongst the public, on the contrary, and that it results in more positive perceptions of the authorities.     

The Structure of Voluntary Disclosure Narratives: Evidence from Tone Dispersion

We examine tone dispersion, or the degree to which tone words are spread evenly within a narrative, to evaluate whether narrative structure provides insight into managers’ voluntary disclosures and users’ responses to those disclosures. We find that tone dispersion is associated with current aggregate and disaggregated performance and future performance, managers’ financial reporting decisions, and managers’ incentives and actions to manage perceptions. Furthermore, we find that tone dispersion is associated with analysts’ and investors’ responses to conference call narratives. Our results suggest that tone dispersion both reflects and affects the information that managers convey through their narratives.     

The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices

Throughout the world every economic and socio-economic indicator has deteriorated. The so-called ‘real economy’ has been deeply contaminated by the most significant global financial crisis for seven decades. The ultimate extent and duration of this rampant degeneration and its longer-term political effects are unpredictable but what caused the crisis? This paper examines a range of suppositions made in theories which deny the possibility of financial asset market failure and identifies ways in which they contributed to the circumstances and actions which created the current crisis.     

Risk communication and social media during food safety crises: a study of stakeholders’ opinions in Ireland

Social media is a particular communication platform which has witnessed an exponential growth in use and influence in recent years, democratising the communication process, and offering risk communicators a way of putting into practice those principles which are advocated to be at the core of risk management and communication. However, little is known about stakeholders’ willingness to embrace this new form of communication in a food crisis. The current study presented an exploratory investigation of the opinions of Irish stakeholders on the position of risk communication in a crisis, with a particular focus on understanding what application social media may have. In-depth one-to-one interviews were carried out with key stakeholders holding frontline positions in managing and communicating about risk in the food sector in Ireland. The stakeholders identified risk communication as a central activity in a food safety crisis, driven by an obligation to protect both consumer health and the reputation of the Irish food sector. Stakeholders relied primarily on risk communication to disseminate information in a crisis so to educate and inform the public on a risk and to prevent confusion and alarmism; most did not explicitly value two-way risk communication in a crisis. The ability to effectively manage future crises may depend on stakeholders’ willingness to adapt to the changing communication landscape, namely – their willingness to adopt social media and use it effectively. The findings indicate that the stakeholders interviewed are appreciative of the need to engage with social media in times of a food safety crisis. However, most valued social media as a one-way channel to help spread a message and there was little reference to the interactive nature of this medium. Implications for integrating social media into crisis risk communication strategies are discussed.     

Pointing fingers across the tracks: an examination of strategic messages in the Lac-Mégantic rail disaster

The oil industry transports crude oil via rail due to increasing demand. Though convenient, this can be dangerous, as many railways travel through populated regions, placing individuals in close range at risk of danger and death during a train derailment. In 2013, the deadliest rail disaster to happen in Canada in 140 years occurred when a Montreal, Maine & Atlantic (MMA) train carrying 7.7 ml of petroleum crude oil broke loose in Nantes, Quebec, and traveled towards Lac-Mégantic, Quebec. The train derailed and exploded in the city’s center, instantly killed 47 people, destroyed downtown, and forced the evacuation of over 2000 residents. The disaster prompted safety and criminal investigations, and litigation for personal, economic, and ecological reparations. This study uses dialectical tensions of strategic communication decision-making to examine the crisis and post-crisis stages of the event to determine how the tensions of organizational responsibility and emotional connection intersected during the crisis. Further, the impact of the crisis at an industry level and the resulting industry-wide lessons learned are revealed. Results were twofold: The tensions intersected with one another; and in socially stigmatized industries, organizational learning can occur on an industry-wide level. Tensions intersected when insensitive communication and messages disowning responsibility for the event initially occurred, and also later, when sensitive communication and taking ownership of the event were communicated. Learning occurred via observation, and actions were implemented in similar organizations in direct response of the event. In addition, regulations were created in direct response and implemented in both Canada and the United States. The study offers implications, discusses the complexity of transnational crises, and calls for future study of interacting tensions of strategic communication decision-making in order to understand how inherent tensions in a crisis situation prompt certain organizational responses to crises.     

Narratives of the future: Suspending disbelief in forest-sector scenarios

Scenario analysis considers highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing plausible narratives of the future and evaluating them for a range of implications. The power of scenarios lies in creating and considering compelling stories about the future. Thus, narrative, defined as an account of a series of events, is central to the process and plays a pivotal role in engaging participants in a scenario analysis exercise. While a good scenario story can engage individuals and influence their suspension of disbelief, we know little about how participants actually respond to the scenarios so they can, and will, suspend disbelief in scenario outcomes.We explored the role of narrative in suspension of disbelief in a scenario-based study of the long-term future of Canada's forests and forest sector. We discovered that specific aspects of the scenario narratives themselves influenced participants’ suspension of disbelief. While interacting with the scenario narratives, participants actively worked to suspend disbelief by creating new narratives or accessing other existing ones, and by projecting themselves into the scenarios as characters in the stories. Our results may help scenario writers, practitioners, and researchers understand what, in one project, cued people's abilities to suspend disbelief and engage productively in discussions about possible futures.     

The dark and the bright side of liquidity risks: Evidence from open-end real estate funds in Germany

During the 6-month period from December 2005 to June 2006, the German Real Estate mutual fund industry suffered an unprecedented liquidity crisis. We investigate to what extend competing theories of liquidity crises help explain this event. Our results show that fundamental factors not only mattered for the liquidity outflow in normal times but also during the crisis. However, strategic complementarities accelerated the withdrawals during the crisis suggesting that pure panic behavior contributed substantially to the massive outflows. Thus higher liquidity buffers might help mitigating these tail events. Furthermore, we find that funds with a lower fraction of shares held by institutional investors suffered from less significant outflows suggesting that a segmentation of funds for different investor groups might help mitigate panics.     

A new method for early detection of mass concern about public health issues

During a public health crisis, risk communication professionals and other risk managers need timely and reliable information about the public reaction as soon as possible in order to effectively carry out their responsibilities. Based on a data-set of microblog news posts, this article presents a method that can forecast to what extent news about a public health issue will be disseminated. The study makes advances in rapidly tracking citizens’ reaction towards public health issues by monitoring news media on microblog sites. The findings show that the proposed method can detect early on the intensity of social reaction on a public health issue as well as provide alert signals. The method can also complement existing risk detection systems and help in the design of other powerful risk analytics tools.     

The capital budgeting process and the energy trilemma - A strategic conduct analysis

This paper examines capital budgeting and its role in the ‘energy trilemma’. The key focus is on the role of knowledgeable agency in the analysis of strategic conduct. In particular, this study demonstrates how accounting tools can be used by executive managers, who, whilst dominant in their own organisations, are themselves subordinate to government in the United Kingdom and at the European level. The strategic conduct of actors is examined in a narrative, theorised case study setting spanning an 11-year period from 2006 to 2017. The principal contribution to knowledge from this study is the extent to which strategic investment accounting has played a role in changing regulatory and government policy in a privatised industry. Government and regulators were forced to take the generators' concerns seriously, because the generators (based on knowledge derived from capital budgets) restricted their capital expenditure rather than mobilising their resources. The generators highlighted that not only was this a problem of environmental sustainability and price for consumers, but also one of long-term supply. They argued that the government had to address all aspects of the trilemma when creating policy.     

Accounting narratives and the narrative turn in accounting research: Issues,theory, methodology,methods and a research framework

This plenary address paper traces the development of accounting narratives in external reporting practice and research, focussing on corporate-sourced financial communications to shareholders and analysts. It is written from the personal perspective of a researcher who began in the positivist tradition of disclosure research and is increasingly engaging with the more interpretive/critical tradition of socially-constructed narratives. Whereas early accounting narratives research existed at the margins, modern content-analytic work on disclosures rose to a position of prominence, alongside the rise of non-financial information in the practice domain. In recent years, large-scale linguistic studies have entered the mainstream positivist North American literature, supported by computerised natural language processing. Outside this community, accounting research has witnessed a ‘narrative turn’, similar to many other social science disciplines, marking a shift away from realism and positivism. This paper argues for the importance of both lines of research. Participants' actions in relation to accounting narratives may be understood in terms of, inter alia, both economic explanations based on utility maximisation and behavioural explanations based on psychology and the embeddedness of narrative in social practice. In terms of methodology and methods, the weakening of the deep-surface divide is exemplified by the common combination of corpus linguistics approaches with (critical) discourse analysis in other disciplines. Based on a discussion of key issues, theory, methodology and methods, a framework for thinking about research in accounting narratives is offered. The challenge is to better understand the role of narratives in the increasingly rich, complex information environment of external reporting.     

Risk communication policy design: Cyprus compared to France and the Netherlands

This study aims at analyzing differences between risk communication policies in Cyprus, compared to the Netherlands, and France. It analyzes risk communication policies indirectly through a qualitative analysis of the information provided by official websites, which are considered to be proxies of these policies. The websites review will focus on the type of the information disclosed online, and the similarities and differences between the websites, regarding the information provided, the way it is communicated, the backing on credible sources, and the supplying of more information if desired, but also simply through the presenting of the WebPages. The results indicate that the Netherlands and France have created risk dedicated websites besides the ministries’ websites with information on risks, prevention and the authorities’ actions. There is a gap between strategies. The Dutch strategy is to give more responsibilities to the public, by encouraging individuals to be resilient and responsible for their own safety at a certain level by promoting preventive behaviors. The French strategy is to provide risk-dedicated information to the public, also on prevention and government actions. Opposed to this, the Cypriot authorities simply avoid this strategic question by confining the risk communication to the crisis phase, without entrusting people with a role in risk management, and by strictly one-directional communication, with government delivering and the public digesting (or not). Suggestions for risk communication policy development are discussed.     

How can we effectively resolve the financial crisis: Empirical evidence on the bank rehabilitation plan of the Japanese government

When the Japanese economy experienced a serious financial crisis in the late 1990s, the government attempted to promptly resolve this crisis by injecting public funds into bank capital, requiring these banks to compose and implement a rehabilitation plan. This paper empirically investigates whether this plan (the Business Revitalization Plan) worked effectively, emphasizing the inconsistency between strengthening the soundness of the banking industry (preventing bank failures) and expanding credit supply (improving macroeconomy). We present empirical evidence on this inconsistency and argue that the government failed to promptly resolve the serious financial crisis in Japan due to this reason.     

Communicating the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis in Annual Reports: A Study of Australian NGOs

This paper analyses the extent and nature of communication by Australian non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) about the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC). NGOs need to balance their communications about financial need against news that could potentially reflect negatively on stakeholders’ impressions of their worthiness to receive funding. Recognising this, we content analyse the annual report narratives of 10 Australian NGOs for information about the impact of the GFC and their use of impression management (IM) techniques. All NGOs in the study experienced some financial impact from the GFC, with nine referring to it in their annual report narratives. However, the information was very limited, indicating a missed opportunity to communicate meaningfully with stakeholders. Further, of the nine NGOs providing disclosures about the GFC's impact, eight used at least one IM technique, indicating a lack of transparency that has potentially negative implications for trust‐building with their stakeholders. This study focuses on a limited number of NGOs, but further research could broaden this approach to examine organisations in the broader not‐for‐profit (NFP) sector, other modes of communication or communication patterns at other times of crisis, and currently, in an era of austerity.     

Strategies to create risk awareness and legitimacy: the Swedish climate campaign

Social means of risk regulation often only arise in response to media attention and public opinion. In contrast, in the case of climate change, the Swedish government proactively launched a public information campaign to promote public awareness and knowledge of the risks associated with climate change, with the explicit objective of promoting acceptance of public means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses the framing of climate change in the Swedish climate campaign and its communication strategy. What was the message of the campaign narrative? What did it imply concerning the causes, effects, and management of and responsibility for climate change? What means were used to communicate the risks of climate change? The paper analyses the campaign narrative, its references to various affective images of climate change, and the various storytelling techniques it used. It concludes that the Swedish climate campaign relied on a unidirectional view of risk communication and proffered a narrative containing inconsistencies and ambivalence. The analysis demonstrates that despite a thoroughly worked‐out strategy, a well‐defined message, and the intention to speak clearly, a complex problem such as climate change cannot easily be transformed into a single, coherent story.     

Long-term performance of mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN countries

The study looks at mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in ASEAN countries and examines the post-M&A performance using data from 2001 to 2012. The industry-adjusted operating performance tends to decline in the 3 years following an M&A. Yet, the results suggest that M&As completed during the financial crisis are more profitable than those implemented before and/or after the crisis. We argue that this is mainly due to the synergies created between the firms’ resources during the crisis which augur well for firms’ economic performance. We find that, during the crisis, certain characteristics of the firms like the relative size of the target, cross-border nature of deals, acquirer's cash reserves and friendly nature of deals are important determinants of long-term post-M&A operating performance. However, for M&As during the crisis, there appears to be no relationship between performance and firms’ characteristics linked to M&A activity such as payment method, industry relatedness and percentage of target's share acquired.     

Communicating with the public during health crises: experts' experiences and opinions

Governments and health agencies worldwide are planning for a potential influenza pandemic. Their plans acknowledge the importance of public communication during an outbreak and include related guidelines and strategies. Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication is a new addition to the literature, drawing on health promotion communication, crisis communication and environmental/technological risk communication. This paper adds to the literature, exploring the notion of ‘effective communication during health crises' by reporting on interviews with 22 public health officials, scientists and communications professionals responsible for communicating with the public. When analyzed in the context of the risk communication literature, the interviews reveal several considerations for health risk communicators. First, given the important role that mass media will play in an EID outbreak, there is an urgent need for public health to build partnerships with journalists based on an understanding of the two parties' unique societal roles. Second, seemingly practical communications considerations – such as how certain to be about information before sharing it and whether to engage in two‐way communication with the public – have ethical dimensions that deserve attention. Third, there are unique challenges associated with communicating uncertainty, which would benefit from an exploration of the role of trust in health crisis communication.     

基于认知-情绪交互视角的产品伤害危机沟通实证研究

从认知-情绪交互的视角出发,考量消费者的认知评价、负面情绪和行为倾向之间的关系。结果表明,危机沟通方式会导致不同强度的负面情绪,而负面情绪则显著地影响被调查者的认知评价以及行为倾向,鉴于此,应将关注消费者情绪提升到企业危机沟通的战略高度。