基于认知-情绪交互视角的产品伤害危机沟通实证研究

从认知-情绪交互的视角出发,考量消费者的认知评价、负面情绪和行为倾向之间的关系。结果表明,危机沟通方式会导致不同强度的负面情绪,而负面情绪则显著地影响被调查者的认知评价以及行为倾向,鉴于此,应将关注消费者情绪提升到企业危机沟通的战略高度。     

企业风险管理中的风险沟通机制研究

ERM是当今企业风险管理的核心标准,风险沟通是风险管理的重要方法,但企业风险沟通的研究尚不完备。本文将社会公共领域的风险沟通理论与COSO框架下的企业风险管理相结合,提出了一个风险沟通的理论假说,以全面风险感知、相互信任、伙伴关系和双向沟通模式作为该假说的四大支柱,以全面综合的方法,从企业内部(纵向)和企业外部(横向)两个维度构建了企业风险沟通体系,期望能够为企业层面的风险沟通发挥积极的作用。     

Determinants of risk in the banking sector during the European Financial Crisis

Risk assessment in the banking sector has been a prominent topic in the banking literature and has gained attention especially since the recent financial crises. In particular, the European crisis, which was the first since the formation of the Eurozone, underlined a number of significant problems and increased concerns on the tail or crash risk of banks. In the present study, we seek to examine whether information asymmetry, the importance of banks in the financial system and systemic risk play significant roles in the evolution of stock crashes in the banking sector. Information asymmetry is proxied by opacity, the importance of a bank in a financial network is proxied by network centrality, and systemic risk is proxied by clustering. The research framework considers a number of regulatory, reporting and financial market factors that have also been determined to relate to stock crashes and shows that all of the above factors are related to (idiosyncratic) stock crash risk under specific conditions.     

A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation

Systemic risk is modeled as the endogenously chosen correlation of returns on assets held by banks. The limited liability of banks and the presence of a negative externality of one bank’s failure on the health of other banks give rise to a systemic risk-shifting incentive where all banks undertake correlated investments, thereby increasing economy-wide aggregate risk. Regulatory mechanisms such as bank closure policy and capital adequacy requirements that are commonly based only on a bank’s own risk fail to mitigate aggregate risk-shifting incentives, and can, in fact, accentuate systemic risk. Prudential regulation is shown to operate at a collective level, regulating each bank as a function of both its joint (correlated) risk with other banks as well as its individual (bank-specific) risk.     

Risk cultures and dominant approaches towards disasters in seven European countries

This paper builds upon the risk culture concept started with Mary Douglas’ and Aaron Wildavsky’s seminal work on risk and culture. Based upon the empirical results of a qualitative sociological study on sociocultural factors affecting risk perception and crisis communication in seven European countries, a theoretical model, illustrating how differences in disasters framing imply diverse approaches to risk and disaster management, is suggested. According to this framework, culturally bounded assumptions and conventions strongly influence how communities make sense of risks and hazards and how these communities consider some ways of dealing with disasters more appropriate than others. The framework suggested in this article distinguishes between risk cultures of a given society, which do not necessarily respond to nation states. In order to explain differences in how cultures deal with risks and disasters, and to define the main features of our typology, three main interrelated dimensions have been selected: disaster framing, trust in authorities and blaming. By analyzing differences and similarities in how people perceive and interpret disasters, as well as to whom the responsibility for risk prevention and crisis management is attributed, in seven European countries, three specific ideal types of risk cultures emerged: state-oriented risk culture, individual-oriented risk culture and fatalistic risk culture. Implications for crisis management and communication in case of a disaster will be addressed for each of these risk cultures.     

The Prestige disaster: risk or danger?

The sinking of the Prestige off the coast of Galicia in north-west Spain in November 2002 was an enormous environmental disaster and it had an immense media impact both nationally and internationally, lasting weeks as a social and political phenomenon. Five days before the ship sank, the captain had reported to the maritime authorities that the old tanker was damaged and in trouble. During these five days leading up to the shipwreck, a crucial decision had to be made: what should be done with this dangerous oil tanker? Temporality is a property of the hazardous events which, after being noticed, are evaluated as imminent or deferred. This temporality makes a clear difference between a risk and a danger. Whereas the risk has time to anticipate the events, danger has just a very short time or even has no time. At this point, the Prestige disaster turns to be paradigmatic. To tow away this damaged oil tanker was a risk decision which estimated that there was still a time to prevent its running aground what meant to follow the story repeatedly told by the narrative context of risk. However, the Prestige had been spilling out oil all the time and the damage was not a probability but a fait accompli. This accident has not a risk temporality; in fact, it had not temporality at all because it demanded an immediate intervention. My conclusion here is that this crisis was managed in terms of risk when it should have been treated as a danger situation.     

The action suited to the word? Use of the framework of risk information seeking to understand risk-related behaviors

Although a growing body of risk communication research focuses on how people process risk information, one question that is overlooked is how the seeking of information contributes to behavioral adaptation toward the risk issue. How are people’s behavioral responses to risks affected by the search for risk information? Building on the Framework of Risk Information Seeking (FRIS), this paper reports on two studies that focus on the experimental testing of several of the basic FRIS assumptions. In study 1, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (risk perception: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test the assumption that higher levels of involvement and risk perception stimulate the intention to seek additional risk information as well as the actual risk information. Study 2 is a partial replication of study 1. In study 2, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (fear appeal: present vs. absent)?×?2 (response efficacy: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test how varying the levels of involvement, risk perception, and response efficacy influence actual and intended information seeking, as well as the intention to adopt risk-mitigating actions. The results showed that the high-involvement, high-risk perception, high-response efficacy group was most likely to actually seek information and make behavioral changes. The results are in accordance with basic FRIS assumptions. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

Helping behavior in a virtual crisis situation: effects of safety awareness and crisis communication

Incident evaluations show that bystanders tend to help: they do not wait for professionals to arrive, but act as required by the situation at hand. In the present study, we investigated how safety awareness (induced before an accident happened) and providing a course of action by emergency services affect helping behavior after witnessing a virtual accident with two victims. The main task of the participants was to arrive at a job interview in time. Safety awareness was manipulated by the specific organization they went to: either promoting safe traffic or healthy living. The results show that all participants were inclined to help. Participants who were primed towards safe traffic more often called the emergency number, but talked to the victim less often. Participants who had received specific courses of action moved the victim less often. In all, the results clearly indicate the value of effective risk communication (before an event occurs) and crisis communication (after an event has occurred), as both types of information improve the quality of actual helping behavior at the scene.     

美元定价权外移与美联储危机干预之困

由次级房屋抵押贷款引发的美国金融危机目前已经演变成了全球性金融危机。美联储自去年以来迭创新招进行危机干预,但我们看到的却是危机的愈演愈烈,每一次的干预都显得徒劳,最终不得不由政府出面来进行救助。这一方面与危机涉及的金融产品的复杂性有关,另一方面,笔者通过研究发现,也与美元定价权外移有关。本文通过对美元定价权外移的历史背景以及美联储危机干预的效应分析,发现美元定价权的实际外移给美联储的危机干预带来了相当的困惑,由此阐明全球化环境下保住货币定价权至关重要。     

从金融产品异化角度解析次贷危机的特征、发展和前景

人们之所以对次贷危机一再判断失误和低估其影响,主要在于采用了传统观念来评估这次前所未有的危机。次贷危机和以往历次金融危机相比最大的特征在于它是首次由产品异化引发的全面金融危机,所以从产品异化角度来审视这次危机,有助于揭示其中许多新的特征和发展脉络。相应地,传统的危机对策难以完全应对这次新型危机,只有同时对业务模式和产品重新调整,才能最终恢复市场信心和信任。在业务模式和产品经过调整的后危机时代,美国金融市场将会进入更加健康持续深化发展的新阶段。     

银行危机救助策略的分析

银行危机的救助策略一直是理论界关注的焦点。本文通过构建一个两期模型,以银行危机是否会引发货币危机为评判标准,探讨政府在面对商业银行清偿能力危机时救助与不救助的抉择。经研究发现:当商业银行的不良资产率高,或商业银行在经济中起重要作用,抑或产出的价格弹性较小时,为了避免货币危机的发生,政府应该出手对商业银行提供救助。在相反的情况时,固定汇率制度下,政府为了维护其固定汇率的信誉应该出手对商业银行提供救助;浮动或管理浮动汇率制度下,考虑到商业银行的道德风险问题,政府应该不予以救助。