The rise of risk: risk related bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and 1993-95

Bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and in 1993-95 were scored according to their major concern: risk, resource allocation or resource growth. It was found that risk related bills had increased strongly, from 11% to 28%, implying that currently almost a third of all bills in the Swedish parliament are related to risk issues. The absolute number of risk bills increased by a factor of four. Resource allocation bills, on the other hand, decreased strongly, and resource growth bills, a minority of bills, remained at a relatively low level. All parties except the Conservatives showed a strong trend towards increased risk concern, especially the Social Democrats. The most frequently encountered type of risks in the 60s were health related, while environmental risks predominated in the 90s. These changes are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that risks become more important during periods of slower economic growth. It is concluded that risk is currently a very important issue on the Swedish political agenda.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

会计师事务所合并与质量控制:基于中天勤合并案例的经验分析

会计师事务所如何通过合并实现良性的规模化发展,是近年来我国会计市场管理与实践的重要课题。2001年国内最大的本土事务所中天勤的关闭促使我们反思该宗知名的“强强联合”案例伴随的潜在问题。本文的证据显示:在合并形成中天勤以前,深圳中天的上市客户群风险比天勤客户群更高,质量控制状况(采用签字注册会计师的签字集中度衡量)比天勤更薄弱;在合并后,合并双方的质量控制指标差距进一步拉大,且未观察到合并双方作出适当的质量控制与整合。我们认为,中天勤合并双方的合并前风险不匹配与合并后整合缺陷,抵消了合并的预期积极作用,从内因的角度为中天勤合并后的迅速灭失现象提供了一种解释。     

Shifting reactions to risks: a case study

Social science research in the field of risk analysis has emphasised evaluating the magnitude of individuals’ reactions to risks (e.g. strength and salience of concerns, frequency and forcefulness of behaviours that respond to risks). Fewer studies assess the factors that contribute to risk reactions or the types of risks to which reactions are directed (e.g. human health, wildlife health or ecosystem health risks; economic or aesthetic concerns). Theoretical and empirical research on amplification and attenuation of risk (e.g. the Social Amplification of Risk Framework) reveals that the strength of people’s reaction to risks can change markedly over time, as a function of new stimuli. We expand on this foundation to consider here how the types of risks members of the public react to may also shift over the course of their exposure to a hazard, particularly as more information about the hazard becomes available. This case study of risk reactions related to an outbreak of type E botulism in north-western Michigan, USA, demonstrates that the types of risks people react to can change substantially over time. We identify factors that contributed to changes in types of risk reactions, and then consider how these factors potentially distinguish the botulism outbreak from other outbreaks. This case study suggests that, under certain conditions, risk communication can meaningfully alter the types of risks that people react to in response to an environmental hazard. We discuss implications of these findings for risk research, risk communication and environmental conservation.     

非公有制企业党组织与企业捐赠

与公有制企业党组织受到较多关注不同,非公有制企业党组织是否真正发挥影响力是同样重要但却被学术界忽略的待研究问题。本文基于手工收集的民营上市公司党组织的相关数据,从社会捐赠这一视角研究党组织影响力对其履行社会责任的影响。结果发现:民营上市公司党组织的影响力越大,企业的社会捐赠力度越大,且显著高于同行业和同地区的平均捐赠水平;这种影响力的促进作用在民营上市公司党组织基础更加稳固的企业、管理层对党组织重视程度更高的企业和党代会时期更加明显。上述结果在控制了可能的内生性问题后依然稳健。本文的发现意味着非公有制企业党组织有助于促进其履行社会责任,这有助于评估和促进非公有制企业党组织的建设及其作用的发挥。     

Communicating the ‘migrant’ other as risk: space,EU and expanding borders

Forced migration and border spaces as fault lines posing risks to society through the notion of ‘Othering’, remain under-explored in risk literature. With Europe facing its biggest humanitarian crisis with forced migration and displacement due to conflict zones, the borders of the European Union have received renewed attention in media. Refugees and the displaced are often depicted as ‘migrants’ and are seen as transgressing borders as illegitimate entities. Although increasing attention has been paid to border patrol and issues of securitization since 9/11, the ‘migrant’ body as ‘risky body’ in political and policy discussions is under-conceptualized and theorized in risk literature. We examine political discourses of the UK Government to discern how the migrant and the expanding borders of the EU are framed as forms of societal and economic risk and equally how these are mitigated with and through the discourse of space and borders. We take a constructionist approach to the ‘migrant’ problem in the EU and UK where risk is socially constructed through political discourse.     

Global environmental risks: between political hazards and policy decisions

Environmental risks are both decision forcing situations and action forcing events. Rethinking the nature, scientific soundness and democratic character of environmental policy decisions have become critical political issues. And, although the environmental policy approach to address environmental risks enjoys ample support, the newly acquired custody has not been assumed without a degree of political hazard. It is this subject matter which circumvents the analysis of the risk political model, which Munch characterizes as a contingency of double political risks. Since environmental policy inaction is not an option, my interest here is simultaneously with a workable and legitimate model of reaching decisions driven by demands that set explicit goals, acceptable to concerned parties, implementable by policies, with positive impact on the protection against environmental risks. Filtered through the medium of deliberation, environmental risk protection is likely to gain public support and grow into a collective project, thus possibly offsetting the contingency of political hazards. A democratic model of deliberation, however, must be tested not simply by its formal procedural attributes, but also by its ability to deliver. Hence a deliberate model without explicit time frameworks will not do. Any deliberative process preoccupied with environmental risks must seriously consider the pragmatics of time . This implies stipulations of time limits per decision units. After all, time frameworks are embedded within the structuring of rules and decision-making processes, and as such, time has been transformed into both a scarce and a non-renewable resource. This is the more relevant in the context of environmental policy as the intensification of decision-making has been exacerbated in the process of globalization where scientific, technological and economic developments have generated a host of global environmental problems increasingly difficult to address in any decisive form.     

Determinants of audit report modifications in Finnish municipalities

Although municipalities are major economic and social actors in most countries, remarkably little is known about their audits, particularly the determinants of their audit report modifications. The existing evidence is ambiguous at best and scarce, which provides opportunities for further accounting studies in this area. Therefore, based on an agency theory framework, we fill this important research gap by exploring three determinants of audit report modifications in municipalities: (1) economic performance, (2) decentralization of decision-making across different decision-making bodies, and (3) political competition between political parties in local councils. These determinants are examined based on a large panel of data on Finnish municipalities for the period from 2009 to 2013, covering virtually all of the country’s municipalities. We find that a striking 33 percent of audit reports had modifications during this period, which raises serious concerns about the state of municipal management, accounting, and auditing in Finland. Regarding the above determinants, the following conclusions can be made based on our analyses. First, we find partial evidence that weak economic performance increases the likelihood of audit report modifications. Second, the lower the competition among political parties in a local council, the lower the likelihood of audit report modifications. Finally, the more decentralized decision making is across the different decision-making bodies under the local council, the higher the probability of audit report modifications. These results are consistent with agency theory’s explanations regarding the value of auditing.     

Political governance in China’s state-owned enterprises

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are both the economic and political bases of the Chinese Communist Party (the Party) and the Chinese state. The overarching principle of SOE reform is to firmly implement the Party’s leadership and the modern enterprise system. This principle creates a political governance system in China’s SOEs—a Party-dominated governance system characterized by Party leadership, state ownership, Party cadre management, Party participation in corporate decision-making, and intra-Party supervision. This survey explains the logic of political governance in China’s SOEs, presents the evolution and current practices of each element of the system, and discusses findings from both academic research and the field.     

Political risk and international valuation

Measuring the impact of political risk on investment projects is one of the most vexing issues in international business. One popular approach is to assume that the sovereign yield spread captures political risk and to augment the project discount rate by this spread. We show that this approach is flawed. While the sovereign spread is influenced by political risk, it also reflects other risks that are likely included in the valuation analysis — leading to the double counting of risks. We propose to use “political risk spreads” to undo the double counting in the evaluation of international investment projects.     

国家审计与反腐倡廉

中共中央颁布的《建立健全教育、制度、监督并重的惩治和预防腐败体系实施纲要》将国家审计纳入惩治和预防腐败体系,并对审计机关参与反腐倡廉建设,强化对权力运行的制约和监督,在惩治和预防腐败体系中发挥作用提出了明确要求。面对进一步加强党的执政能力建设、巩固党的执政地位、深入开展党风廉政建设和反腐败斗争的新任务,审计机关有义务、有责任,同时也有能力为此发挥积极作用。本文在深入分析国家审计与反腐倡廉关系的基础上,明确地提出了总结经验、进一步把握国家审计促进反腐倡廉建设的规律性,明确目标、进一步增强国家审计参与反腐倡廉建设的主动性,强化职责、进一步突出国家审计服务反腐倡廉建设的针对性,创新方法,进一步提高国家审计推进反腐倡廉建设的有效性等对策思路。     

What are the risks when investing in thin emerging equity markets: Evidence from the Arab world

This study attempts to identify the risks involved when investing in five emerging Arab capital markets. We first find that a constant beta is not a good proxy for risk in these thinly traded emerging markets. However, firms’ fundamentals and country risk rating factors prove significant in explaining the cross-sections of stock returns. The paper provides three important contributions to the literature on asset pricing in emerging capital markets: (i) we show how country risk ratings can be aggregated into a country risk factor; (ii) we add to a growing literature suggesting that, in markets other than the US, it is possible to find large and growth stocks to be riskier than small and value stocks; (iii) we determine that despite economic, financial and political reforms, issues related to financial transparency and political instability are still powerful obstacles to investments in these nascent emerging markets.     

Risk and the cosmopolitanization of solidarities

Abstract

For classical sociologists, national solidarity was a response to the risks and uncertainties of modernity. National solidarity was said to provide the foundations for social order and justice (Durkheim), serve as the basis for political legitimacy (Weber), and address issues of (in)equality (Marx). Throughout the twentieth century, national solidarity seemed to perform these functions adequately, if often at the expense of those not belonging to the national community. However, with the demise of progress as a cultural prophylaxis to contain the future, it is often said that newly emergent world risks spell the end of solidarity. On this view, risk, individualization, and the cosmopolitanization of life worlds are contributing to the fragmentation of societies and pushing solidarity toward expiration. Yet, this jeremiad is based on an anachronistic notion of solidarity, which does not account for the recent adaptations of nationhood. In contrast, I argue that new global risks are not detrimental to the notion of solidarity but rather serve as a precondition for the emergence of cosmopolitanized solidarities. Global culture and political norms from human rights to environmentalism have catalyzed a reimagining of nationhood itself. In order to grasp new forms of solidarity which buttress this reimagined nationhood, I draw on Ulrich Beck’s distinction between three historically specific iterations of the concept of risk, as something that: can be calculated; is malign and incalculable; has the potential to generate goods.     

贯彻落实党的民族政策加快民族地区发展

党的十八大报告关于：＂全面正确贯彻落实党的民族政策,坚持和完善民族区域自治制度。＂的论述,指明了在新的形势下继续坚持和完善民族区域自治这一基本政治制度是不变的原则,这对于当前乃至未来解决和处理中国民族问题具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。初级阶段的理论是坚持发展和完善党的民族政策的基本依据,现阶段,社会主义初级阶段的基本国情没有变,少数民族和民族地区欠发达的现实也没有变,民族区域自治政策只能坚持不能动摇。     

Rational Risk Perception: Utopia or Dystopia?

Societal conflicts with regard to risk management are common. The public has different beliefs than many experts and administrators with regard to such issues as the citing of a repository for spent nuclear fuel or whether genetically modified organisms should be allowed to enter the human food chain. As a result, political tensions arise and there may be a skew allocation of resources for risk mitigation. The question raised in the article is if a consensus society is possible and desirable. If views converge on high risk beliefs, the cost would be very high as well. If views converge on low risks, some hazards could be neglected and environmental damage considerable, as used to be the case in the Former Soviet Union and other socialist countries which lacked a free press. A consensus society is neither possible nor desirable. No party has access to the final truth with regard to risks and hazards; diversity is an asset.     

综合风险管理：“十二五”的新命题

当前中国已经进入“双转”的第三阶段,即经济社会双重转型的全面深化阶段。在这一阶段,“双转”期间的利益摩擦和冲突迅速凸显。“十二五”期间,我国宏观社会经济面临金融风险、三农风险、生态风险、公共风险等“四大风险”,其背后的风险因素包括强国与富民、先富与后富、虚拟经济与实体经济、经济发展与生态保护、经济建设与社会建设、市场失...     

Financial and technical competence of municipal board members: Empirical evidence from the water sector

The purpose of this article is to investigate municipal board members’ financial and technical competence and analyse factors explaining the presence of such competence. Financial expertise estimates were constructed based on the board members’ education and professional experience, while financial literacy levels were estimated based on prior board experience and participation in additional training in accounting and finance. Board members’ technical competence was assessed in terms of their education. Quantitative data was derived from a survey administered to 354 municipal water utility board members in Finland. The response rate was 52%. The results of the study indicate, first of all, that municipal board members’ estimated financial competence levels are not high and that financial competence is associated with organizational form. Secondly, board members’ technical competence levels are also fairly low and technical competence is associated with political affiliation. Stewardship theory offers the most plausible explanation for the influence of organizational form on financial and technical competence, while the resource dependency view provides an explanation for the effect of political affiliation on technical competence.     

对注重“人文关怀”与“心理疏导”的认识

党的十七大报告指出:"加强和改进思想政治工作,注重人文关怀与心理疏导,用正确的方式处理人际关系"。"人文关怀"和"心理疏导"这两个新名词的出现,备受理论工作者的关注。这不仅体现了执政党对人的关怀、社会对人的关爱,更体现了在新时期对思想政治工作的新要求。本文仅就注重"人文关怀"与"心理疏导"的重大意义与具体举措,提出自己的一点看法。     

Communication and knowledge as motivators: understanding Singaporean women’s perceived risks of breast cancer and intentions to engage in preventive measures

As breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Singapore, encouraging them to engage in preventive measures becomes increasingly important. This study aims to take a closer look at the influence of attention to media, interpersonal communication, news elaboration, and knowledge on women’s (aged between 30 and 70) perceived risks of breast cancer and their intentions to engage in preventive measures in Singapore. Attention to media, frequency of interpersonal communication, fatalistic belief, and knowledge structure density were found to be associated with risk perception of breast cancer among Singaporean women. Findings also showed that frequency of interpersonal communication, risk perception, elaboration, and factual knowledge were positively associated with women’s intentions to take up preventive measures such as breast self-examination, clinical breast examination, and mammography. Implications for theory and practice were discussed.     

Book Review

This research examines two modes of assessment of environmental health risks and the transformation of these risks into public health issues while relying on the specific case of well‐water toxicity and mega dose of electromagnetic radiation found in one prosperous town in the center of Israel – Ramat ha‐Sharon. Based on official and scientific documentation and interviews conducted at three time periods with randomly selected town residents from contaminated neighborhoods (N = 169), this study shows the discrepancy between the ‘objective’ experts’ standards for assessing environmental health risks and the public’s subjective perception and evaluation of the impact of these risks on their health and well‐being. Even though, by experts’ standards, the well‐water toxicity remained constant over the three interview sessions, Ramat ha‐Sharon town residents’ subjective levels of concern and perception of risk fluctuated as a function of news media and municipality announcements and residents’ perceived ability to minimize the risk. This study also shows the complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental health risk assessments and the need to relocate them into the broader socioeconomic and political context in which they are embedded.